Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2024
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any idea what this cloud is? It's like. A long cigar over north Kerry.
@Meteorite58 did you see this over the northern coast this evening?
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The warm temperatures and high Dew Point along with subtle convergence will aid convection leading to some heavy showers in the afternoon especially in the Midlands, might give some thunderstorms but upper shear is slack so possibly short lived and isolated if they do occur.
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Fair bit of CAPE developing tomorrow in the Southern counties and Midlands, pronounced convergence zone along Southern counties from land and sea breeze, some heavy showers and thunderstorms possible, will see the charts later.
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Good levels of sunshine getting up to the high teens and over 20C in places, DP's high in the South getting up to 16C so probably feeling humid there but aiding convection growth, decent deep layer and lower level Shear over the counties highlighted in the warnings and a pronounced convergence zone as can be seen in the map below, high THETA E readings so plenty of moisture in the atmosphere , PWAT of 22mm showing up in the soundings so heavy downpours are possible with spot flooding and if some convection grows enough hail is possible and with that kind of shear maybe some funnels or a tornado. ECM is showing the possibility of a few lively storms especially over Carlow, Killkenny, Waterford, South Tipp and Cork, Wexford might see some activity too. Some of those downpours could give some short lived blustery conditions.
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Yes getting going now, both AROME and ECM showing some big cells forming and possibly maturing through Waterford an its track through Cork, models showing heavy hail /rain a possibility, could be very active cells kept alive by the convergence zone and will see if daughter cells appear off them. Has the look of causing damage in some form either from lightning or hail or spot flooding and wouldn't rule out a tornado. Dazzler might be right in that it could quickly go Orange warning level. Storms could creep up into Limerick also and maybe the fringes of East Kerry.
I would think looking at kicking off in the next hour or so in Wexford /Carlow/ Killkenny or Waterford and spreading West through Southern Tipperary through Cork and into Limerick perhaps and maybe East Kerry.
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WRF showing similar track and very decent MUCAPE and decent ThetaW. The projected cloud map below showing the tell tale sign of large cells forming or super cell type scenario with the height showing well then the overspread of cirrus up top. Now that is a storm that could produce and carry over along distance if it forms as shown below. Will see if it materializes, an interesting days weather watching. Might be surprise to people too in the track of storms is the gusty winds coming out of them in the downdraughts, not Kansas but Irish style!
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ECM 06Z Thunderstorm Index, which is good for using as a rough guide, not always correct in track or actually happening but it is more to alert to the possibility but with looking at the other parameters and other models they would back that some severe storms might kick off today and maybe further up into the midlands might see some activity also.
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