The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147123#Comment_122147123

Have you ever been in Ireland or know anything about Irish politics?

Gloomtastic!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146183#Comment_122146183

In the right locations. Amongst those who claim the most, as far as I can see locally. It’s very worrying to see. For evil to succeed requires good people to do nothing.

Widdensushi

Have they said they will never get in bed with the greens,I presume so but just looking for it in black and white?

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146183#Comment_122146183

Depends where you are. It barely gets a mention in some areas. Buying a house is the biggest issue amongst the working population from my experience.

After that it's childcare costs.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147299#Comment_122147299

SF have said they will get into bed with anyone that would join them, problem they have is nobody wants to join them

After last election SF met with Greens before anyone else to form a government, but they seem covid coming so hid for a few months till the government was formed and then came running out saying it wasn’t fair

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147283#Comment_122147283

Not sure what you mean? Having a discussion and immigration been a hot topic doesn’t mean it is evil or people are evil

You can’t shut down a conversation by just saying everyone is evil who wants to discus as it, people can be pro-immigration but still want to have a discussion and make sure that the guidelines been put in place are been adhered to. Nothing evil about that

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144483#Comment_122144483

So why would they be honest to themselves in a polling booth, when there is complete anonymity?? The above contradicts the original post I replied to.

Finty Lemon

SF find themselves in precisely the same trap as Corbyn's Labour. They have tried to move beyond a hard core of working class support by courting the ultra-hip urban/student vote. It was working for things like same-sex marriage and housing, but immigration has now exposed the fault line between these 2 radically different groups. Whatever SF have gained in the latter group, they have now lost by a greater number in the former. Independents are hoovering up the difference. The targeted voter pool is just too different, hence they have snookered themselves and now seem totally confused politically. Imagine, the largest majority in favour of border checks at Newry/Dundalk and elsewhere are SF voters!

In Labour's case that stemmed from Corbyn's election to leader by very recently signed up members of the party. In SF's case, you can't help bu think that the recent additions to their ranks have caused the same mistake, which oddly must've been sanctioned by the Belfast Command. You would presume the thinking was to sew up the Dublin vote, and Mary Lou McDonald was annointed just to crown it. She is now despised in some constituencies by those who presumably once saw her as the change needed. If she reverses now the youth-activist members will drift away.

It was entirely predictable and shows 2 things, namely lack of real principles, and second strategic naivety. I expect MLMD to be taken out in the wake of a disappointing election run.

Gloomtastic!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122147815#Comment_122147815

What I mean is if we do nothing - like not voting in the forthcoming local elections, then the views of the majority will not be represented and the nasty piece of work in our neighbouring constituency has a chance of getting through by appealing to the base of society who believe only they and their neighbours are entitled to claim benefits from cradle to grave.

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145886#Comment_122145886

Media manufactured?? The media have been downplaying it since day one and continue to do so with soft sop “debates” with little to no dissenting voices. Give your head a wobble.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149067#Comment_122149067

I never said not to vote

ebbsy

The newspapers and RTE are beholden to the Government. Of course they will talk about Polls and Sinn Fein in a negative light.

But just like the Referendums, they might all be in for a nasty shock soon.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149233#Comment_122149233

The claims of newspapers and RTE are long and winding now, none of which has been backed up

What we do know is it any journalist produces negative articles on Sinn Fein or their member they are open to getting dragged into court, not saying other parties don't do it but looking at Sinn Fein they have been running a long campaign against the media on both sides of the border to shut down negative news stories

So is the media "beholden to the Government"? or do they quash negative stories on Sinn Fein as they don't want the hassle anymore?

In terms of polls, the media coverage for the last 4 years has been extraordinary when I compare to previously, IMO, all of this was about how high SF was in the polls. Now they take a drop the claims are the media is corrupt? doesn't really add up does it?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149033#Comment_122149033

The Democrats are in the same trap in America, as many left wing parties are.

They increasingly reflect on the views and only listen to their well to do activists.

Listened to a fascinating talk about the Dems in America=bya political statistician, they are now the party of those who depend on the State for everything and the top 20% and are rapidly losing all the working class.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149233#Comment_122149233

Not to think that the referenda were defeated on merit?

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149033#Comment_122149033

genuinely, do any of the 3 main parties have any real principles? the idea that this is whats killing the shinners seems wide of the mark.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149531#Comment_122149531

Not really the point. The more centrist parties can shift from a median position and still not lose too many votes. SF have tried to unite two extremes in the same electorate which is very difficult if not impossible.

More importantly however, the SF growth had been driven by a younger, daresay more idealistic demographic which had been building on top of the base. They are more sensitive to shifting principles - they will grow out of that as they get disappointed by politicians. SF have popped that cherry for them, so now SF are no different to the rest having claimed they were the only alternative to the rest.

Finty Lemon

Also, Mary Lou McDonald is every day looking more and more like the cranky 'oul wan next door. Always complaining, takes an age to say or do anything, can't admit any wrongdoing of her own crowd.

Her link to a younger vote is well past its time. The clock is ticking for her.

Bobeagleburger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149033#Comment_122149033

How do you know SF have lost such great numbers?

They are polls so I'd be fairly cautious.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149661#Comment_122149661

then when Mary Lou walks off the screen they drag on the permanently outraged Pearse

Maybe it’s time to change the skit at this stage after 4 years people are turning off, it’s just noise

CorkRed93

https://x.com/breakingnewsie/status/1791151274714669057

populisim - not just for the shinners!

Sheep breeder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149807#Comment_122149807

Anybody who think polls are the be all and end all are seriously mistaken, they can be manipulated to suit an agenda, looking at the recent referendum results where the parties got it totally wrong and the local elections will give the same feed back from the people.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149807#Comment_122149807

Indeed. But the premise that SF were pre-destined to win the next election was all based on polls showing them at 34-36% too, no?

Maybe they never had that support at all.

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149661#Comment_122149661

ML McDonald always lived a charmed existence. They didn't have a great Local Election in 2019. They had a disaster of a Presidential election picking a truly awful candidate. A freak event in the run up to the 2020 election in my view really helped them. A TD picked up on a little incident regarding Fg and the RIC. A little spark that came out of nowhere, (led to the rise in popularity of the Woulfe Tones) a real social media phenomenon that benefitted SF, it became a protest vote, now I may be overstating it, I may be wrong, I think they will never see those levels of support again, it wasn't MLMD or Sinn Fein policies that caused the surge in the first place.

It takes a completely incompetent leader to lose support as the main opposition party with one of the most unpopular governments we have seen in some time. We need a clean sweep of leaders across all parties in my view, from the dimwit in charge of SD, to the stale MM of FF, the ridiculous looking Taoiseach and absolute bimbo in charge of the Greens. The independendents will be the biggest winner at a time when the main stream parties have to beg people to run for election.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149945#Comment_122149945

they are polling at a similar level now to what they got in the last election??

Silentcorner

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149977#Comment_122149977

I'm not listening to the polls, rightly or wrongly, they have been well wrong in the not too distant past. The last time the electorate went to the voting booth was in March, SF (along with every other party) got a spanking, despite what the polls told us.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149995#Comment_122149995

They didn't allow for a big working class turnout, and they didn't expect such a near absolute no in those communities.

That what skews polls when the normal distribution of turnout etc doesn't happen.

Polls get it wrong when things take an occasional twist.

The science is solid enough but it is not the holy Grail and doesn't take in to account certain groups being more passionate than expected.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145886#Comment_122145886

Completely manufactured by the media? - do u live in Ireland?

https://www.businesspost.ie/news/migration-the-top-issue-for-irish-public-in-upcoming-eu-elections/

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151030#Comment_122151030

Yes, all my life. I'm not sure why this is difficult to understand. Migration is an issue but primarily it has been controversial in a few areas of the country where a ham-fisted approach by officials has antagonised some locals. Their concerns have been exploited by small numbers of activists from the racist right. The mainstream media have given it disproportionate coverage and FF and FG in particular and shamefully SF have opportunistically shifted their positions for cheap electoral gain.

The vast majority of people in Irish society are not affected by the issue and if you asked them how does it affect them they wouldn't be able to tell you.

The hysteria is utterly manufactured. The election results will bear that out in the coming weeks.

enricoh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151162#Comment_122151162

Half a million Irish adults still living at home may disagree with you. Renting a house as I did numerous times in my 20s is a pipe dream nowadays.

True- the election will reveal all. If someone told me 10 years ago that Sweden and Holland would have right wing governments I'd have laughed at them it was that unthinkable.