The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Jizique

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151506#Comment_122151506

It is in our PR system

maccored

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122149807#Comment_122149807

its the same every single election. According to the amazing political geniuses that say these things, every election SF is apparently going to lose votes. then they dont lose any. As I have said before, SF are shedding the FF/FG voters they got when people wanted to teach the government a lesson. SF were on the up before those people joined, and they'll still be on the up once they've left

mikethecop

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122153147#Comment_122153147

nananananan leader leader leader , lol

Coolcormack1979

the shinners biggest problem apart from pissing off their voter base by calling them far right is that if they get into government after the next election,they are going to look rather old.they have been hanging around so long roaring and shouting that they will be bandjaxed if they get hands on the levers of power

Charles Babbage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151162#Comment_122151162

Migration is a defining issue in the mid 21st century and the shame is that parties like SF preferred sound bites rather than a long term plan for it. They are now reversing, but I still don't see any clear indication about what they think is a sustainable level of immigration in a country with a housing shortage.

https://anphoblacht.com/contents/28018/

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122153450#Comment_122153450

SF now have a problem at the top of the ticket. MLM is unconvincing, PD seems incapable of discussing anything without getting over excited and when pressed, is often unable to back up his policies/claims with factual data, and O’B’s galactic incompetence in making a mess of what should be like shooting fish in a barrel, attacking the Governments record on housing and offering alternatives/hope, means they look like amateurs. Their failure to grasp concerns over emigration and offer policies which might ease concerns, will make an electorate already sceptical about their economic policies, now less likely to vote for them.

As had happened in past elections, when it comes time to get down to the serious business of convincing voters that they can do the job and make a difference, SF are being found wanting, voters don’t trust them to govern.

Finty Lemon

It really is remarkable how much of a dope Michelle ONeill is. And how much the media want to buy in to her 'girl done good' story.

This week was a good reminder. She clearly has been propelled into the "leadership" role by senior command to soften the image of SF, and things like the LLS interview are testament to that. But once she had to face actual questions her lack of capacity was hopelessly exposed.

Lipstick on a pig comes to mind.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122153450#Comment_122153450

Oh he does, more outrage. Go back a few years ago and I would have said he was a good politcian, he is tiresome now after years of the same act

Plus when he does do anything, like the insurance bill he proposed, it was a useless

THen you look at the "tax the rich" which was 140k and then suddenly 100k, incompetent

Then he releases an "alternative budget" which had to be pulled soon after because of all the errors and still has errors in it now. F**k me how could anyone thrust that guy with anything apart from doing another outrage video

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122155879#Comment_122155879

I would think the best thing he could do is resign (along with the other S.F. leaders from around the country who attended the massive funeral in Belfast in June 2020, when 99% of the rest of us were making huge sacrifices and taking big precautions ). People in other countries have resigned over less. He could always go back to the college in Letterkenny and try to finish the course he dropped out of.

Finty Lemon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156211#Comment_122156211

Martin Browne, Johnny Mythen, Matt Carthy,Pat Buckley, Reada Cronin,David Cullinane.

Jaysis, no end to the 'talent' in SF.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156244#Comment_122156244

Huge talent lol….not to mention Violet Anne Wynne….oh I forgot, she resigned from Sinn Féin a year or two ago, I think she alleged that she was the victim of a campaign of "psychological warfare" from members of S.F. 

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156244#Comment_122156244

That's what concerns me most about SF. It isn't so much about policy disagreements for me as it is about confidence in their individual ability to do the jobs they seek which is pretty basic. I wouldn't have confidence in most of them.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122155787#Comment_122155787

I bet your last sentence there "Lipstick on a pig comes to mind" will spring to my mind whenever I see here again on TV or whatever - I might not be able to get it out of my head I fear, or whenever I hear her complaining about the same old same old.

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156244#Comment_122156244

They seem to be running a child in his confirmation suit in my locality. I’d say he’s just gone 18. Can’t be any older.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156320#Comment_122156320

it’s like when I was a kid and the manager of the senior Gaelic team would come over to the stand and ask me and my friends to go home and get our boots, he was a bit short of players.

KaneToad

This happens all the time. Parties fly high in the opinion polls but the picture changes closer to election day. Ireland isn't known for its seismic shifts. Next govt will be similar to last one.

SF have gotten all the support they are going to get. When they try to appeal to other groups they alienate some of their previous supporters. They are the single most popular party in the country which is no mean feat. But their policies are not the most popular in the country hence they won't see govt in 2025.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122156320#Comment_122156320

Seems like a lot in most area's, they also have a elderly lady in our area that nobody has seen or met in their lives from who I know. Bit odd when I am involved in a lot of the sports clubs etc in area and know all the coucillors because they are always knocking around, offering to do fund raiser/help with grants

Maybe they travel in different circles to me which doesn't involve the sports clubs

Ionraice

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122004212#Comment_122004212

They do give that impression, don't they?

And yet, they were very sure footed about gaining support until now.

Which begs the question:

Is it possible that, given the number of candidates they are running in the local elections, that they are choosing to avoid having to deal with the mess the current Government have made of immigration, while simultaneously getting the incumbents into position for the next general election after this one?

Meanwhile, they could use the next couple of years to airbrush over the fact that, until recently, they were at least as enthusiastic about migration as the current Government, if not more so...

If you think about it realistically, SF probably don't have enough sitting county councillors to be able to form a government .

Even if they did, and said councillors became TDs, where are the replacements for those councillors?

I'm not convinced that they don't want to be in Government.

I strongly suspect that they are laying the foundations for an attempt at a non coalition Government in the future.

I freely admit, I could be entirely wrong.

But, it makes no sense to go to the expense of running multiple candidates in the local election, unless there is a long term plan.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122153147#Comment_122153147

Sinn Fein got 9.48% in the last local elections, so I am fairly certain that the propagandists for Sinn Fein will be able to paint this year's result as some kind of victory as they are pretty much nailed on to do better than that.

However, the real questions will be can they match the 35% they were getting in opinion polls, and if not, can they at least match their general election performance of 24.5%.

We will probably have to cut through the noise of nonsense to get to the real analysis.

skallywag

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122148735#Comment_122148735

Disagree strongly.

It is well known that voters will very often behave very differently on voting day, compared to how they have indicated their preference to a pollster, albeit anonymously.

Oxo Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122153405#Comment_122153405

There was always a claim SF's base wouldn't like this and that, yet their popularity grew. I think it's wishful thinking that their base is made up of racist knuckle draggers who hate the Brits, and the blacks and so on. Their base is a mere 4 or 5% of their support if we go by traditional numbers.

SF were against Direct Provision and sought more rights for immigrants several years ago. Then, people claimed their base wouldn't like it.

Grey123

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122158056#Comment_122158056

It's not unheard of for newly elected councillors to run for the Dail. I think a few current Green Party TDs were only elected councillors a year before, they will get someone in for the council seat alright.

It actually works out well for the candidate as they get tow rounds of posters / name recognition within a year.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122158056#Comment_122158056

Sinn Fein want to be in government, everything single thing they have done since the 1994 ceasefire has in part been about being in government North and South.

There are no circumstances in which they would choose not to be in government after the next GE. Until the recent decline in polls a SF/FF government perhaps with the Soc Dems or Labour was the most likely next government. SF use rhetoric about a 'left' government to keep a 'left' hue to them but they know that's not a runner...even on a really good day it's unlikely SF/Soc Dems/PBPA will have the numbers even if you threw in Labour though I doubt PBPA would agree to LP participation. I still think FF/SF is the most likely government but it's not as certain as it was recently.

The idea that they would be seeking to skip government at the next GE over migration is laughable, partly because the issue is hyped beyond it's real significance, secondly if we accept your premise that 'migration' is a mess, SF will just lay the blame at the previous government and if they got a few wins on housing delivery that would help too.

Oxo Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160012#Comment_122160012

So how would a 'propgandist' measure success if not based on seats won? Polls seems to be a pretty loose and inaccurate way. Or is it so propagandists for other parties can claim Sinn Fein lost, if they gain more seats but don't match a poll from several months ago?

Sounds like the 'noise of nonsense'.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122151162#Comment_122151162

I wouldnt call myself racist. I wouldnt call my friends racist. And we certainly wouldnt be right wing, not particularly left leaning either tbh. But all of can see clearly the effects that the population increase is having on the people of Ireland.

Now I doubt that we are unique, and I think that anyone with eyes in their head knows exactly what is causing high rents and not high house prices. Yes its demand exceeding supply, and people all understand what causes that too.

To say that our recent population increases (however they came about) are not adding fuel to the fire is just burying your head in the sand.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160208#Comment_122160208

Coppinger is trying that one.

Straight out of the establishment handbook she'd moan if it was anyone else.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160269#Comment_122160269

So do you want all the tech companies to send all their non Irish national workers back to where they came from and then pull out because they can't sufficient labour?

Soc_Alt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160343#Comment_122160343

Tech companies are already transitioning out of Ireland.

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160343#Comment_122160343

Not what im talking about and i think you know it.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122160405#Comment_122160405

Tell us more..