The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145267#Comment_122145267

I'd still say that their policy on immigration and the fact that it wont lead to any real change vs FFG is the major factor amongst SF voters.

Its just taken SF voters longer to realise this.

I do agree that they also dont appear to have any costed policies and I cant see any social metric in which they would likley bring about a positive change.

Bobson Dugnutt

The army council must be getting nervous with the collapse in support in the 26. Wouldn’t surprise me if Mary Lou is replaced with Matt Carthy. Doherty’s endless shouting, fake outrage and finger pointing is also no longer working.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145649#Comment_122145649

It was a revolt vote. Did people understand who or what they voted for? in reality the majority had no idea. It was just vote for SF because they wanted to show FF/FG they could do it.

If the swing vote decided to vote Independent in the revolt how many seats would Sinn Fein have got?

Rosahane

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144469#Comment_122144469

Harks back to their days of getting trained by the PLO and the Russians.

Sunny Disposition

SF were caught on the hop a bit with immigration, and sounded a bit like FF and FG when talking about the issue, they weren't saying the situation is out of control early enough. Also Mary Lou's comments about house prices in Dublin were a bit transparently populist, really they were childish.

As well as that, it's the time in the election cycle when people grudgingly start to think that maybe the existing Government is the least worst option.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145826#Comment_122145826

No it's the time people start to review policies, you had people on boards saying they would vote for SF because they would put an end to the Green Party and the wind madness, yet SF propose to increase the spend and speed to wind

Once you start to review their policies it falls to pieces and that's why they are losing, last election nobody cared what policies they had and hence why revolt vote

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145779#Comment_122145779

Well whatever the explanation for the 'Great Leap Forward' it happened on Mary Lou's watch and never looked conceivable under Grizzly. Only an ultra-ruthless/capricious political party would not give a leader who had brought them on so much the opportunity to contest another general election.

Rosahane

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145033#Comment_122145033

I think one of the reasons she got the gig was that at the time MacLoughlin didn't get re-elected. Doherty had said he was interested but presumably he's too dumb for the Belfast lads.

MacLoughlin is SF royalty and has a brain. Watch this space!

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144469#Comment_122144469

There's a projected number of up to 30k migrants coming to Ireland this year.That number is only going one way next year and the year after and the year after.....

Just to give you some context that's the equivalent of over a quarter of a million people a year coming into Britain (funnily enough a huge proportion of the ones in Britain will be coming here aswell)

Any party claiming they are pro immigration will sink without trace and pivot accordingly as this becomes the biggest issue for everybody in this country day by day

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145862#Comment_122145862

It's not the biggest issue by a distance, it's completely manufactured by the media.

If you're right then we'll see a plethora of the racist right winning seats at the locals, but we won't, there maybe a handful but I'm particularly looking forward to thugs like Landlord Gavan Pepper, Philip Dwyer and Blighe falling flat on their faces.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145862#Comment_122145862

And yet all the pro immigrstion parties are heavily favour in every single opinion poll. Let's be generous, and say everyone voting for independents is voting for an anti immigration party. The latest Irish Times poll has them at 17%, while pro immigration parties are at 83%.

Can you explain how that is possible given you think pro immigration parties will "sink witbout a trace"?

crusd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145345#Comment_122145345

Hardline Ireland first nationalist?

I presume a significant proportion of the electorate are now expressing support for hardline nationalist parties and the combined FF/FG/SF vote is falling?

Bobeagleburger

Those videos of anti Sinn Féin chants at recent protests were a killer for the party.

Down 11 points in a few months? They are only polls but that's a huge fall off.

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145886#Comment_122145886

Immigration is a huge issue.

Headshot

Something not right that you're losing support when you have this god awful government in place

rolling boh

Seems all the support for the independents will help re elected the government SF not even sure of being the largest party at the rate the polls are going and with less government options for them it looks like a real let down for them after all the polls over the last few years .When you see the problems that we have with some of the real big issues it should have ripe for a change .For all the talk of people wanting change it doesn't appear it's going to happen .

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146183#Comment_122146183

It's generally manufactured. There are issues in some towns around accommodation where concerns of locals have been exploited by activists from the racist right.

If you stop people in most cities and large towns and asked them how they're affected by immigration most wouldn't be able to answer because it doesn't affect the vast majority of people. The media have hyped it up and politicians on the right and unfortunately SF have reacted to it. Populist, cynical and opportunist.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146636#Comment_122146636

it all circles back to the biggest issue 4 years ago… housing. this is a nice distraction though

Clo-Clo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146650#Comment_122146650

How is immigration a distraction?

Anyone who discusses immigration fires up housing as the next topic and then HSE as the follow on.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146636#Comment_122146636

Really? not sure what towns or cities you are in because ask anyone in the ones I am in and they all want to discuss it. Nothing to do with "generally manufactured" or "racist right"

It's a topic that has to be discussed and trying to say everyone who wants to is racist is a strange angle to take.

HBC08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146636#Comment_122146636

Do you genuinely believe that?

In about 2 years time we'll be looking back with fondness to the days when there was only a hundred tents on the canal.

We'll think it was quaint that governments were talking about accommodation for refugees and scrambling to buy every space in the country.

We'll smile ruefully about when health and housing was the biggest problems.

There's a massive,massive issue coming and nobody will be left untouched by it.

Dick phelan

Very simply they are no longer a party for working class people. They started chasing the same vote as Greens, Soc Dems and Labour. There's only so much of that cake to go around.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146636#Comment_122146636

100%

In reality immigration materially affects very few if anyone. After the initial protests and flashpoints they twaddle back to their own front doors and get on with their lives.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146735#Comment_122146735

I wouldn't post it if I didn't believe it.

You've made a few sweeping statements gazing into a crystal ball but you'd need to provide a bit more facts and evidence to support your 'massive, massive issue coming'.

tom23

You should bookmark this post. And in a couple of years the folks that have gaslit their heads into the ground will will see that.

monseiur

The majority of the politicians were caught napping as the current illegal immigrant issue was hurtling down the line.

Varadkar was forced to vacate his job as Taoiseach and FG leader over it and now Sinn Fein are a sorry spectacle as they try to change horses in mid stream as numerous elections are looming.

Like the government SF don't have a defined policy on migration into the country - they are making it up as they go alone and hoping it'll go away.

Government parties in particular are getting it in the neck big time on the canvass over the illegal migrants and the current Taoiseach is panicking big time and is now clutching at straws …realising that his recent change of certain policies pertaining to illegal migrants is too little too late.

FG grassroots are hopping mad that the Minister for Justice was not demoted to another ministry in the cabinet but are well aware the damage is already done, the horse has long bolted and a high price will be paid when the votes are counted in the coming elections.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146977#Comment_122146977

You've established they're all illegal by yourself have you?

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145862#Comment_122145862

The projected number is about 100.000-110,000 + about 30,000 returning Irish people less about 30,000 - 40,000 Irish people moving abroad for opportunity / travel and also about 30-40,000 non Irish nationals leaving.

Of the 100-110,000, about 30,000 will be applying for asylum. the rest will be from other EU countries, or will have followed procedure to come here to work and many will have jobs pre-arranged.

For the far right agitators and those who follow their doctrine with question, isn't it funny that over 250,000 Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian "Military aged Unvetted Men" came into Ireland in the last 20 years and Irish women did not experience a massive rise in rape or sexual assault, Irish children were not kidnapped and eaten for breakfast and we did not become a Polish sub state!

And likewise, over the past 20 years, over 250,000 Military aged Unvetted Irish men spread themselves around the world and did not shame themselves.

In my circles, immigrants are welcomed as they contribute greatly to society. Yes, controls and restrictions need to be on an influx of those who have entered without going though proper channels (similar to what tens of thousands of Irish did in the USA in the 80's & 90's) and those controls and restrictions seems to be starting to show results, but immigration AND emigration is brilliant for an economy and we should embrace it

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122146977#Comment_122146977

So if SF and the government parties are all going to lose out bigly over immigration who is going to win?

SeanLMooney

I don’t think FF will go into coalition with SF…doesn’t make sense for them as it would lead to the end of FF

SeanLMooney

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122131252#Comment_122131252

Yes that’s probably correct. SF are at heart an ethnic nationalist party and ethnic nationalists everywhere have the idea of who belongs or doesn’t belong in ‘the nation’