The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

TokTik

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144449#Comment_122144449

The polls are normally anonymous. I do them online with Red-C.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144417#Comment_122144417

They've always been pro-immigration and supporting refugees. It would be strange to abandon one of their core beliefs.

skallywag

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144456#Comment_122144456

I would imagine that the embarrassment factor is more in play for the older voter rather than the younger.

In many cases it will be a very large pill to swallow for a traditional FF / FG voter to swing towards SF, and I would not be surprised at all if quite a few SF votes will be from folk who would not be loud and proud about how they are casting their vote.

skallywag

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144463#Comment_122144463

Yes, I am aware of that. It still does not mean that people will be honest to themselves though, even if there is complete anonymity.

Jack Daw

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144469#Comment_122144469

That's fair enough then they'll piss off more and more working class people and they'll lose a lot of their base.Immigration has only been an issue in Ireland in the last 3 or 4 years nd so it's only become very obvious to people recently how pro open borders they are so they'll probably keep hemorrhaging voters if they keep it up.

People voted for them precisely because they were a nationalist party with a working class slant not because of their pro immigration policies.A Lot of their representatives ( I would say the vast majority) are only with Sinn Fein because of the above or are independents in reality who go to Sinn Fein because they pay their campaign costs

ToweringPerformance

SF have shot themselves in the foot. People in my community anyway are walking away from them in droves. Independent's will pick up their votes in the general election.

tom23

I think they will loose seats myself. Trust they had with working class communities is gone. Mary Lou a busted flush. I wouldn’t trust them on immigration any more than the greens, soc dems and FFG. I don’t consider anything Labour has to say.

FG just had to be seen as getting ‘tough’ on immigration. Straight away a bounce in the Polls. Blue Hugh will be delighted.

SharkMX

SF rep came to the door the other day. Asked him a few quick fire questions and he was all over the place. Kept trying to suss me out first before he answered.

JP Liz V1

..

I'd say MLMD needs to go as leader

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1791034611830558958

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144816#Comment_122144816

Iimmigration has been an issue in Ireland for at least two decades. In the late 90s and early 2000s there was issues with Nigerians and Polish coming here and push back from sections of.society about that. The Nigerians were here to take our children's prams and leave them at the bus stop becusse they got a brand new everyone time they visited the social welfare office and the Polish were here to take working class jobs and do them at a cheaper rate than the local working class heros who always collected the social welfare anyway.

The game changer has been the Ukrainian war as the nunebr following that were massive.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145033#Comment_122145033

SF not that sort of party. Given how far she's brought them on in the republic from where they were under her predecessor, she'll surely be given a shot at another GE

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122144876#Comment_122144876

I think this is it.

For some reason, some people thought SF would look to cap immigration, even though they are a left wing socialist party and they were always going to be pro immigration! Its bizarre that some couldnt see that from day 1.

Of the 3 major parties, SF are the ones that ideologically would be most pro immigration.

FG (who ideologcially should be the party most in favour of immigration controls) have started to make some stronger moves in terms of immigration control and of course, they have seen a bounce as a result.

Harris does have a different focus on the subject Vs Varadkar it would appear.

MFPM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145061#Comment_122145061

Ah the old tropes about Nigerians & Polish (apparently the only migrants from Africa and Eastern Europe at that time) still doing the rounds. Lies then and lies now.

MFPM

It's difficult to fully understand what's happening with SF and I suspect it's not just one factor.

Migration has been hyped by the media to be an issue far beyond it's real significance. SF and the 'left' have been targeted specifically by the racist right activists who are exploiting fears in some working class and rural areas. This may be a factor in the drop off of some of SFs vote.

Another factor is undoubtedly SF's shift on a range of issues, they are so intent on making themselves palatable to big business and corporate Ireland they come across as utterly opportunist.

They also lack clarity and bravery on issues they tend to flip flop, their message is inconsistent.

It's far to early to proclaim their demise though.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122130938#Comment_122130938

Mary Lou accused the government of always being "lastminute.com". I couldn't vote for someone who talks like that.

It of course ignores how often Sinn Fein are themselves "late" in picking up on the zeitgeist.

ednwireland

Quite funny going through the twitter fest where all the sf bot's are saying the poll is wrong sure look at the one on the referendum.

Didn't the Irish times one always have their support slightly lower ?

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145267#Comment_122145267

You can't have an extreme neo liberal position on migration etc. Verging on libertarian and expect it to be popular in working class areas just because you call that position solidarity.

Of course it is going to cost them working class support and the bosses and property barons who love it are never going to vote for them.

Archduke Franz Ferdinand

they are soft on immigration, not in line with the public mood

Raoul Duke III

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145267#Comment_122145267

I wouldn't vote SF but you're onto something here.

Ireland is an overwhelmingly middle class country, and voters don't want radical policies. Thus SF have to tack to the centre (and they will undoubtedly govern from there - I have little doubt that a SF-led coalition would enact broadly similar policies to the current one).

The problem from SF is, with the above factor in play, how do they successfully position themselves as a viable alternative without (a) scaring the crap out of middle Ireland and (b), annoying their legacy support base into voting elsewhere? Tricky balancing act.

CorkRed93

the real issue shinners need to grapple with is the fact (as polls prove now) that a decent size of their working class vote were hardline ireland first nationalists. i really dont see where they go now though. far right candidates wont make a dent in the elections. they wont get enough votes and there is too many of them. SG will need to pull from somewhere but i dont think there is anywhere left to pull from. maybe a few sick of FF might defect. FG will keep their core base of poshos and annoying farmers who want handouts for everything. greens will likely get decimated and have some go to FG, even though i think they've done ok outside of o'gormans terrible handling of emigration.

downthemiddle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145033#Comment_122145033

I think she needs to stay!!

Coolcormack1979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145345#Comment_122145345

I’m from fg background and a farmer and I can tell u one thing,farmers are sick of fg.i want to farm and to be perfectly honest am fed up of handouts or ifa looking for them.

I met Sean Kelly mep canvassing a couple of weeks ago and left him in no uncertain terms of what I thought of him and fg.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145367#Comment_122145367

who'll you be voting for? ive cousins + uncles farming, they'd be staunchly fg.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145367#Comment_122145367

I farm and have a small business, both are reasons why I wouldn't vote FG.

You would have to be a nut to vote FG or FF and be self employed at this stage.

Coolcormack1979

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145389#Comment_122145389

independent

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145345#Comment_122145345

I doubt that, it is just that they aren't as extreme Free market on immigration as Ronald Reagan was and they think a lot of the more radical left ideas for society are completely nuts and destructive.

The Left is achingly upper middle class now, its no longer a working class movement or listening to the working class, of course it is going to continue to alienate them.

CorkRed93

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145503#Comment_122145503

fair enough . too many independents , in the dail, at least are still connected to the parties they were once in. far too many of them happy to prop up the gov while constantly complaining abou government decisions.

padd b1975

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145110#Comment_122145110

How far she's brought them.

A disastrous last local and European elections.

A general election with a range of candidates which can only be described as from "colourful" to downright dangerous and comical vote management.

Unbelievably weak on covid (open the pubs but keep the schools closed).

Constant tales of her failures to adequately deal with ongoing bullying in SF.

Proven abuse of Dáil privilege.

Motions of no confidence hilariously backfiring regularly.

Her foghorn style of diplomacy.

I wouldn't have her lead a neighbourhood watch never mind a modern European country.

paul71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145478#Comment_122145478

So, let me get this straight. You are self employed and you have only left yourself the options of SF, Labour, SD, People before Profit, or The Greens?

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122145575#Comment_122145575

In terms of their Dail presence, to previously unimaginable heights. Even six months out from the last GE, the idea that SF would be emerging as effectively joint largest party with FF and FG would have been a pipe dream…