The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Kermit.de.frog

Another poll today showing a firm downward trend for SF among voters. Down 6 points to 28%. What do you put it down to?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2024/02/08/irish-times-poll-sinn-fein-support-hits-lowest-level-in-three-years-falling-by-six-points/

Housing crisis? - ongoing but the public see a lot more units under construction now. The public may not like the cynicism of SF politicians objecting to housing up and down the country.

Economy? Full employment, healthy surpluses - too much of a gamble for a population that overall is comfortable?

Immigration? - SF vulnerability here given their traditional voter base. Given the rise in support for Independents it would seem this could be a huge issue for them and the party stance does not reflect many working class voters.

The north? - most people don't care.

...

What do you put the flight from SF down to?

retalivity

Immigration, most definitely

HBC08

Their refusal to comment in any meaningful way on immigration.

aziz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737934#Comment_121737934

Exactly this

Bobeagleburger

Meaningless poll tbh.

They'll still be in the next government, with probably FF.

hynesie08

Being a protest vote who could never ride that wave for 5 years, something would have burst the bubble.

Peter Flynt

Why is it that SF are responsible for preventing immigration authorised by FF/FG?

Immigration is, of course, an undeniable factor yet SF are on 28%. In the same poll FG are on 19%. I remember once upon a time people like Leo Varadkar moved to remove Enda Kenny as leader of FG (and to replace him with Richard Bruton) when FG were on . . . 28% in the polls.

Bobeagleburger

They need a new leader.

KaneToad

SF core support has never waned.

But, there is a reason why Ireland has always returned either FF/FG since the history of the state. In general, the electorate want a centrist govt with a bit of left/green spice. This is unchanged throughout the generations.

"Radical" parties often poll well a bit out from an election. But this peters out, somewhat, when it comes close to the crunch.

SF also struggled to define where exactly they sit, politically. We all know their strong republican aspirations - but FF & FG also pursue Irish reunification.

SF take a hard left approach on a lot of social issues; housing, healthcare, economy. But this ground is well served by independents. Also, the majority of Irish citizens are enjoying better lifestyles than their parents. Standards of living have improved & the middle classes are growing - this inevitably leads to more politically conservative mindsets.

I also think the standard of SF rep is not as good as it once was. In the past Adams, McGuinness, McLaughlin, O'Caolan etc al would routinely wipe the floor with anyone they debated. I rarely agreed with them but their political nous was undeniably exceptional. This was honed through the years of the troubles where the stakes were high and life&death was par for the course. McDonald, Doherty, O'Broin et al do not have the same ability - although they are not necessarily poor public reps.

SF over performed at the last election and weren't ready for it. This has resulted in internal issues - allegations of bullying, reps defecting. The 'chance' given to them by the electorate has not resulted in much difference to the first time SF floating voter. SF would have been better served had last election result happened at next election allowing them to build for the following election (2030?) and possibly find a route to govt.

As it stands, I can't see SF finding a govt route in 2025. A similar version to the current govt will be returned.

Ten of Swords

It's pretty clear that FF/FG policies over the last decade have left us in the state we're in now but do people seriously believe that Sinn Fein will sweep in and save the day somehow if they get into power?

🤣

People seeing through the populism?

Spot on, in my view

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738042#Comment_121738042

"Also, the majority of Irish citizens are enjoying better lifestyles than their parents. Standards of living have improved & the middle classes are growing - this inevitably leads to more politically conservative mindsets."

This is complete nonsense and no longer the case. In actual fact your entire post is utter waffle.

timmyntc

It's almost all immigration related, with some voters moving to independents or the nutter alliance (IFP, NP..)

The new line out there on social media is that "SF are open borders for all and will be 'even worse' than current government - vote NP patriots MIGA"

Truth be told I don't know what SFs policy on immigration, IPAS and citizenship actually is. And whatever is in their manifesto will likely change 180° by next election anyways

tom23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058335203/the-accelerating-fall-in-sinn-fein-support

Immigration. Splinters in their arse from sitting on the fence. While the save the world crowd on here dont think good bad and indifferent immigration has had an effect on resources like housing people think they do. And while we can argue that they do or dont... Sinn Fein need to decide what makes the stand out now from pox bottle Fine Gael party and FF / Greens.

bobbysands81

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737916#Comment_121737916

Hello 1980’s.

Augme

It's immigration. They losing their voted to the independents which to me is clear that it is their stance on immigration. Although, losing voters on that issue isn't necessarily a bad thing either.

bobbysands81

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058335203/the-accelerating-fall-in-sinn-fein-support

One of the most out of touch posts I’ve ever read.

Bobeagleburger

FF/FG have been clever by dealing with a lot of the issues SF have brought up.

I've definitely been (pleasantly) surprised how generous the current government have been with handouts in a booming economy.

Some issues are slower to be dealt with of course.

SF have moved more to the centre, and the currently government has moved towards the left in some ways.

There's not much between FF/FG and SF tbh.

Bobson Dugnutt

Mary Lou is a very snide, shrill and condescending politician when you listen to her for any extended period of time. Eoin Ó Broin is even worse. Pearse Doherty is all hot air and fake outrage. There’s very little depth or substance to any of them. Very little talent there apart from Pa Daly and Louise Reilly.

Then you have no position on immigration, 300k houses while objecting to housing developments, no position on the environment beyond soundbites, an angry and obsessive online army of “activists” who abuse politicians, journalists, academics and supporters of other parties.

I think the polls are going to get even worse for them.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738113#Comment_121738113

I came here to post that exact line about splinters. SF are caught between their core, their newly acquired protest base, the nutjobs on the left extreme, and the nutjobs on the right extreme. Most of those groups would have opposing views on immigration

Peter Flynt

"SF aren't doing enough on immigration. That's it . . . I'm voting for FF/FG/Lab/PBP/GP instead". . . . . said no one ever!

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738143#Comment_121738143

Their loss is independents gain. FF/FG are not up much at SFs expense

Fann Linn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738143#Comment_121738143

Correct. But independents are taking these votes now. Sharon Keoghan, Verona, and others. If there were a few more here in Galway East they'd get my vote.

I'd sooner read tea leaves than pay any heed to polls but...

They spend too much time floating in the political wind.

They've disgracefully bought into the anti-immigration rhetoric.

They're now being outflanked to the left by the SocDems where Holly Cairns leads by principle rather than political expediency.

astrofool

Schrodinger's political party, when viewed, the cat is usually fetid and rotting.

They've been very successfully collecting and hoodwinking the left vote (taking apart Labour) while moving their policies to resemble FF. A part of this has been staying non-committal (lately actually saying they are waiting on the government policy before making their own more populist version) in areas like immigration and the environment while actively working against fixing issues at the local levels (record numbers of housing objections). It's unfortunate that the major opposition to the current coalition is effectively a single-issue (united Ireland) party with sprinklings of populism on top of it (and frequently present unrealistic fiscal policy that could cause Ireland it's lettuce truss moment).

I still think MLMD could be the next taoiseach if they can learn to play well in a coalition and them being in government would allow for a proper opposition to form (rather than two centrist and a populist party we currently have as the major 3).

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738179#Comment_121738179

No Independent is ever going to find themselves in government changing immigration policy.

tom23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738196#Comment_121738196

Dont care at this stage as long as PBP, Soc Dems and Labour never see a government post. As useful as a chocolate teapot. I want to see a party int here with a workable plan for housing and Immigration. As for health, can that ever be solved?

Fann Linn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738220#Comment_121738220

Exactly, so the alternative is vote SF, FFG or Lab GP etc.

I'll give my vote to anyone bar the above, as the above are all in favour of the sh1tshow that currently exists.

Floppybits

My own thoughts on the declining support for SF is not because of anything that the government have done but is down to SF trying to make themselves more appealing (is that the right word) mainly to FF as a partner in government. To do this they have supported a lot of the government policies like the hate speech bill, immigration and few others and have totally misread the room. All this has shown is that they are just the same as FF and FG.

They have only themselves to blame with their flip flopping on policies. Also they have 4/5 main people in the party, Mary Lou, Pierce Doherty, Eoin O'Brien and Louise O'Reilly, then every now and then they let Cullinane out but outside of those 4/5 you'd be hard pressed to name anyone else. Without looking it up who is their Justice spokesperson? To me as a floating voter SF just seem to weak and that is being exposed now.