The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

Bobson Dugnutt

Mary Lou isn’t even meant to be the main decision maker in the Dáil.

markodaly

The electorate are just getting wise to the fact that SF have no real clue how to fix the big issues that dominate our landscape.

They are good are generating rage, shouting and roaring at people in the Dail, and online.

But at the end of the day, they have moved to a more centrist position and become yet another political party with a 'globalist' or internationalist view, despite their history of saying No to anything and everything.

So what exactly do they stand for?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740262#Comment_121740262

The far-right will get the princely sum of zero seats.

Rigor Mortis

Immigration has hurt them. I think the 300k line probably lost them a few middle class votes. I don’t think the Gaza focus is helping them in the South.

I know it’s important for the base, but they are more vocal on this than virtually anything else. I don’t think a large amount of people think the Govt have been too far out of line on that.

for all the talk of populism on here, the shinners could be acting way more populist on a number of issues. It seems to me the strategy has been ‘don’t f it up’. That might need to change.

satguy

They will be the biggest party after the next GE ,, After 100 years of FFG, it's time we had a close up look at what SF can do.

We can not go on with the FFG wasters anymore,, I for one, only see an increase in SF support.

While others convince themselves that there is an accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support, somehow ?

timmyntc

The far right will get no seats because they are far too extreme. Here it goes from FG in centre with a big jump to Irish Freedom Party or NP loons way out right about as far as you can go.

People want common sense migration rules and proper border enforcement, not a return to 1950s Ireland or a pogrom against anyone without pasty white skin. That is the difference between what the electorate have an appetite for, and the nutters that actually exist.

"Far right, nul points"

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740748#Comment_121740748

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740601#Comment_121740601

They already have two; they just have Independent in for a party name.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740689#Comment_121740689

Lol

https://youtu.be/NuAKnbIr6TE?si=jhbcyc9bJnK3KkuP

taratee

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740262#Comment_121740262

Just can't see that happening. How many far right councilors are there in the country now? Even a conservative party like Renua, which was founded off the back of a single issue that had the support of a good chunk of the population, could only manage to get a few seats.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738085#Comment_121738085

It actually is true, on every metric bar one, which is the ability to live in the area you grew up in, but that is a consequence of space, there not being enough, and a move towards building up. A necessary societal change.

What people also forget is that the previous generation also had to move out of their location, whether it is Blanchardstown from Cabra or Shankill and Bray from Dun Laoghaire.

ShagNastii

Somebody jokingly shouted at a public meeting with Martin Kenny in the North West:

"Sinn Fein's immigration policy is -Brits out. Everyone else in-".

I don't think they'd argue that fact.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738085#Comment_121738085

I would say it is very much true!

How many folks do you know that dont go on at least 1 or 2 foreign holidays a year?

I dont know any at all.

Home ownership is rising again over the last 3 to 5 years and over 70% of people own their own home.

I would wager a large percentage of those folks DONT want to see their house price drop to 300k, a SF recently stated goal.

That was a huge own goal for them.

A- it isnt schievable

B- it spooked 70%+ of the adult population, who do actually own a home.

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121737883#Comment_121737883

Ties to gangland Dublin did not help as well, it all ties in. Basically if issues that cannot be blamed on "the struggle" put SF in a bad light they have no get out clause.

I think the Dublin riots woke up/shocked a lot of the electorate who are too young to remember "the troubles" etc. Also the political manoeuvring against Helen McEntee backfired on SF. Pardon the pun they shot themselves in the foot.

I thought McEntee made a fantastic speech in the Dail about SF, and law and order. In calm and considered manner.

The whole thing "vote of confidence" etc put SF in a really poor light. It made people reflect, and in my view it was a rare misstep from SF in the ROI.

They obviously thought they could really weaken McEntee like they did with Joan Burton and the water charges. But this time it was a complete misread of the electorate, in my opinion. SF would have looked far better if they did not try the "vote of confidence" game. It came across like a witch hunt and mean spirited. McEntee was then the victim in a scenario that the electorate could see was likely caused by SF "traditional voter" base in any case. And it shone a light more on SF than FG. People then thought SF - the rule of law? Law and Order? The traditional SF voter base, immigration etc.

I did wonder whether SF would search for a few candidates preferably female (less threatening) worked well for them so far, but also those from immigrant communities. That would be the move I would make if I was in the SF strategy camp. Much better optics, no ties to the troubles, no sinister background, non threatening, and a symbol of the "new" SF styled for the ROI.

Basically SF need an immigrant candidate version of "Mary Lou", preferably well spoken but would do what she is told by those who run SF behind the scenes.

They could run that candidate for Europe/Seanad where it is easy to get elected with a party brand. Then could move that candidate to local elections like they did with Mary Lou McDonald.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738227#Comment_121738227

SF are pro immigration.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121738775#Comment_121738775

There is a drift to the right on immigration.

But as no main party supports immigration control, the votes are going to the independents.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740262#Comment_121740262

The reason they havent said anyhing is because they are pro immigration!

They are a left wing socialist party and cant be anything but pro immigration.

Thats why they are keeping their mouths firmly shut, as they know it will lose them votes.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740931#Comment_121740931

The reason SF have lost votes is because of their stance on immigration. I don't think front and centering a random immigrant in their party is going to change that.

tom23

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121740954#Comment_121740954

yes I know that... that why I won't be voting for them. I won't be voting for any left of the centre champagne socialist party either. Worse than Sinn Fein and FFGG put together. Especially the Soc Dems. clueless. I won't be voting for FG or FF. Neither the greens whose demise as a political party is on the cards, like Renua and PD's. Leaves me with very little choice. It will be an independent. If a party came along that had clear vision on Immigration that was fair and at the same time no nonsense save the world ****. They would get my vote. As for housing. It's Donald ducked I feel Can it ever be sorted?

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741064#Comment_121741064

The problem with independents is that they cant do anything but make up the numbers.

Unless there is some form of independent alliance that can field candidates at scale and gain enough seats to become a coalition party, a vote for an independent will do nought to change the likely FFG led govt returning.

Bobtheman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741064#Comment_121741064

Great we could use more independents!?

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741054#Comment_121741054

Of course it will if people see that Ireland is changing and SF are OK with it, the lads with the tricolour/Celtic FC tatoo's will fall into line eventually. It will also show the mainstream electorate that SF are a truly progressive party, not like the parrochical image SF-NI portrays. I am not talking about a random immigrant, I am talking about an immigrant who is a solid candidate a good solid individual.

In NI they are concerned with such issues as "flegs" - not a major issue in the ROI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8JqKxrloQQ

To get power in the ROI SF has to be seen to be progressive to get votes from their non- traditional voter base, the symbolism and playing to gallery only works in NI - or maybe the boarder counties. In the majority of the ROI the electorate is much more discerning in their choices, swayed by Health, Education. Economy, Housing, Law and Order. Most of those issues are rarely deciding factors for votes in NI. It is two different electorates, therefore SF have to act as two different parties, even though they like to pretend otherwise.

What can SF possibly offer that's new if they want to stay within the realms of economic orthodoxy? Look at what happened next door, Liz Truss thought she was on to a good thing, but the markets said tut tut so up went their gilt yields as a consequence. She lasted what? 44 days? Similar will happen to bond yields here if SF are seen to step out of line with the economy.

Augme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741129#Comment_121741129

They are the most popular party in Ireland. I don't know if they need to make drastic changes.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741155#Comment_121741155

They wont be the most popular for long if the trend continues and even today, they are not popular enough to win without a bedfellow.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741154#Comment_121741154

SF would tank the economy by over taxing high earners to the point that their mobile staff up sticks and ireland becomes unattractive to FDI.

Companies leave, tax take goes down, standard of living drops.

There really is no upside to a SF govt.

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741155#Comment_121741155

If SF are the most popular party in Ireland why couldn't they form a government in the Dail? If as some claim SF "won" the last election.

SF have a lot of changes to make to get the mainstream vote in the ROI, and be a palatable party for a sizeable party to go into coalition with. That is the reality.

NI is a different mindset. For example, why did Justin McNulty seem to forget that he was a SDLP MLA and there was a nearly a crisis when the reopening of Stormont. As his Laois lads were due to face Wicklow. He nearly missed the vote! That is how seriously politics is taken in NI.

In the ROI it is serious politics not just flag waving and symbolism. Until SF move away from that they will always struggle to get into power in the ROI. The ROI electorate are not as easily manipulated/blinkered as those in NI.

Strumms

I think SF rolled the dice on immigration. Thought that could be the party with the backs of immigrants and that would be repaid at the ballot box. Might come back to bite them.

A lot of immigrants know that they’ve had it beyond good here. Maybe they appreciate that they want to keep Ireland , successful and functioning, maintain their position in our society and don’t want a free for all as it means they as well as us, are in competition for everything as resources are depleted and stretched….in this life you need to look after your interests….

If I’d emigrated here, SF would be the last party I’d be looking at voting for.

Fann Linn

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741197#Comment_121741197

SDLP. FYP👍

BillyHaelyRaeCyrus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741197#Comment_121741197

They are the largest party in Ireland but they dont have an overall majoirty.

They don't represent the "mainstream" thats the point. They represent the left behind working class and young people locked out of home ownership. As a result their policies will be different. For example the policies that people here say will "crash the economy" actually means lower asset prices. Which is appealing for people with no assets.

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121741205#Comment_121741205

Yeah I fixed that too late, he would be horrified!