Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121641380#Comment_121641380

Its getting very interseting now. Small margins.

squarecircles

Siobhán Ryan on the 9 oclock weather saying the warning will be upgraded to Orange and that storm Isha will effect the entire country with damaging gusts of wind and thundery squally of rain.

adocholiday

Back on the rollercoaster, GFS much more moderate for many on the 18z. Still gusty for sure and some areas seeing strong warnings but severity is much lower and the doesn't go on for as long.

These are the two strongest frames

JanuarySnowstor

It probably justifies a nationwide orange and leave it at that...its nothing unusual in my view. What's of note this Winter is a change of tack by Met Eireann!! Much slower to name storms, UK yet again named this one. Whether that's the right approach time will tell. I actually think in the media driven era we live in that it possibly is!

As always still time for upgrades

billyhead

What time is it expected to be at it's worse on Sunday?

squonk

I think Met Eireann are right actually. We are all looking at the models on here I want it does look like it maybe a severe event. I don’t think there is any basis to say that anything is nailed down just yet either. I definitely think being conservative and seeing where things lately tomorrow afternoon, our early evening Would be enough.

Besides, that, there are warnings for everything these days. Days that, in my youth, would have been a bit of a windy day and now getting yellow warnings. Growing up when the storm was named, you knew it was serious. These days you get a bunch of names throughout the season.. I think they’re right to sit on the fence and something definite evolves. There really isn’t much pointing causing a catastrophe that the letter have to roll back on, or spend next week justifying when it didn’t occur.

WolfeEire

Tuesday will likely bring us another named storm. Quite the shift from the past week. Our weather is rarely exceptional but is never boring.

And 3 inches of rain forecast for higher ground in the southwest over the next 3 days is worrying.

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121641380#Comment_121641380

The ICON very rarely verifies with wind though. Almost guaranteed to overcook things by 10-20% at least.

That said, going by model consensus generally, 100-120km/h gusts across a large swathe of the country are probable at this point so national orange would seem the most likely outcome with probably a marine red for the northwest / west.

DavyR33

The last two wind events to cross our path (NW Meath) brought down two trees on my road. They were not named storms. Highest warning we received was yellow, and orange for a neighbouring county.

Call it bad luck or whatever, but I would be taking some extreme caution Sunday evening into Monday morning. Differing opinions on intensity and location. But all it takes is one gust.

I'd rather Met Eireann overcooks the warnings for this one. It'll feel all that much stronger after the calm we've had too.

.Donegal.

For me, GFS looks a little unusual for Sunday on tonight’s run. I think it could be more impactful again on the next run.

pauldry

I'd say something like this is what will verify

WolfeEire

It is going to be a rainmaker, which may turn out to be the bigger story for us weather-wise unless there is an upgrade in wind potential in the interim (still possible).

sdanseo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121641609#Comment_121641609

Afternoonn into the early hours of Monday.

Meteorite58

Somewhere between the ARPEGE and WRF for now I reckon. Very strong winds, we could be getting winds gusting up to 100-110 km/h for about 6 or 7 hrs or so here in Kerry and possible to get gusts up to 120km/h inland a bit and higher again on coastal fringes maybe going by tonight's output.

UKMO is coming more inline with the bunch, not as extreme but ICON is way out in front and a bit too far ahead of the pack for now.

Could well be countrywide Orange level warning at different stages or most of the country. Looking at very powerful prolonged winds. ARPEGE showing mean speeds 65 to 70 or 75 Km/h at times inland, WRF showing mean speeds of 60 km/h for a number of hours and higher the nearer the coasts.

igCorcaigh

That wind field looks huge, even here in Cork City we might get some high winds, not the usual NW/SW affair...?

Meteorite58

Just looking at the ECM and Meteologix's Swiss HD model which is using the ECM data I believe and showing some very strong winds overland Sunday evening/ night gusting 100 to 110 km/h inland and some 120 km/h gusts in there as well. I don't know how well this model scores on reliability but it looks very like the ECM model but in finer detail.

HARMONIE Hi Res just out to 18.00

igCorcaigh

Those projected 150 kph gusts would have to be taken seriously...

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642237#Comment_121642237

Id say they are wind gust projections for the mountain tops in that area.

igCorcaigh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642241#Comment_121642241

Ah right. I'll review my camping options then!! 😅

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642245#Comment_121642245

🤣🤣

Dazler97

Don't know when the new weather Warning thing is coming into effect but red level warnings are going up from 80km/h mean speeds to 85km/h it may not be alot but even if storms level out at say 83 or 84km/h it's still orange warning territory, I'm sure when I wake up tomorrow afternoon it's gonna be widespread orange warnings with maybe one or two spots getting red warnings ⚠️

DavyR33

The stove is just starting to howl now, ominous sound with rain hitting the door. Dog seems uneasy. I'll be watching this thread and models with interest.

Doesn't help having early lambs either. Could be a long weekend.

lumphammer2

Well all I can see in many places is 60KM and the like .... that would be nasty unpleasant horrid weather but nothing that will end the world ... give me the cold any day ... there have been many named 'storms' that did not materialise ... remember Lorenzo back in 2019 .... nothing happened ... a precursor to the Covid scaremongering of just a few months later !!

And the worst storm in recent times in Ireland was 24 December 1997 ... not even warned of up to the time it happened ...

lumphammer2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642281#Comment_121642281

Exactly ... no one can tell until something hits ... speculation and scaremongering make good coverage for the media and for any real or wannabe forecasters out there ... but storms, snow, pandemics, etc all never turn out as predicted ... Covid for example was a major event and many did die and a lot of restrictions were warranted ... not near to 12 months of level 5 lockdowns though ... but Covid fell short of the apocalypse some predicted! ...

Christmas eve 1997, Stephen's day 1998, Darwin 12 February 2014 and Ophelia 16 October 2017 are the worst wind events that I recall ... some predicted some not ... Lorenzo, Eunice and other ones did not pan out as bad as the panic suggested .... others miss us like Ciaran was pretty bad where it hit but missed us ...

The really really bad ones to hit a general area tend to be few and far between ... that said and done Ophelia from 2017 is the last on my list ... so we are unfortunately due one ... there were only 3 years between Ophelia and Darwin remember ... so far this one does not get officially reported as exceptional in my environs at least ...

WolfeEire

The 18z output from the ECMWF model would suggest a near-nationwide Orange Alert for strong Winds, spot flooding and coastal flooding in Ireland that would likely be effective from mid afternoon on Sunday through to late Monday morning, downgrading thereafter for a short period to a Yellow Alert. The northwest would be in high Orange Alert territory and a brief Red Alert for this region could not be ruled out based on this output. Flooding in Atlantic coastal locations would be a concern due to High tide around 2am Monday coinciding with some of the strongest winds (westerly), not forgetting the added influence of a near Full Moon.

spookwoman

Today a day for battening down the hatches and putting away anything that could take off.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642296#Comment_121642296

The ICON 0z run edges parts of Ireland into Red Alert territory. One caveat is that the model is known for over-egging wind potential, even at 36 hours out.

WolfeEire

Atlantic coastal counties are at low Red Alert level for Sunday night in the 0z GFS with 10 minute wind speeds of 85kmh+ and wind gusts of 130kmh+. A nationwide Orange Alert will likely be introduced initially

Note: Met Eireann's new criterion for red alerts is 10m wind speeds of 85+ and Wind gusts of 135+

Robwindstorm

ECM looks a powerful storm. I think met eireann will update warnings now based on that. My guess is nationwide orange and West to northwest coastal counties red. The question for me that will define this storms strength is what shape the center will hold. Will it be large like the ECM, or will it have multiple low centers, or elongate. In all cases though, the kinks in those isobars during the squally rain deluges will definitely cause power outages and tree damage along with flooding. Not a storm to be travelling in, better to be over cautious with this one.