Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024
Comments
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Yeah the shape of the system around Iceland is still the decider in all of this. In previous runs we were looking at a secondary low emerging from that system and rapidly deepening near the coast. Now GFS and ECM are both showing a more defined low coming out from Newfoundland and merging with that larger low pressure system as it moves towards Ireland. The difference is that on the ECM it loses its shape with the merge but on the GFS it deepens and regains its shape, just beginning to fill as it approaches our west coast. Still a lot of changes on the cards here.
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Still a big spread in the models this evening with no clear picture emerging.
ECM now not bringing strong winds our way until later Sunday evening, peaking around midnight and gone by morning.
GFS still showing the 2 separate systems, first crossing the country from 7am to 12pm, some very strong gusts showing for Clare and Galway there. That's followed by another set of strong winds following a similar track but stronger across the country, hitting Galway and Clare around 4pm and cleared away around midnight.
ICON showing a much larger system tracking further north, showing very strong gusts all the way up the Western coast and orange-red level gusts right across the country. That passes over relatively quickly, between 7am to 1pm but a tail of strong winds follows behind, bringing more strong gusts across the southern half of the country from late afternoon until early hours of Monday.
UKMO out on its own with the majority of the country under red-level warnings around midnight into Monday. Strong winds between that crossing the country.
ARPEGE showing a very powerful system but the strongest winds not making their way overland except for a notable spell around 9pm. Shows strong winds for western coastal areas pretty much all day Sunday and Monday.
Overall the ECM would be the most desirable outcome of this run, but there's so much change between runs still that it's hard to make any sort of predictions on this one.
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Put them all together and in general would have to think that there is the strong possibility of a sizeable storm with the risk of prolonged and damaging winds, cant ignore the ECM being the least strong while still gusting 100- 110km/h overland but the GFS has been very consistent showing very strong winds overland and is far from the strongest model atm and inclined to not overdo it a few days out. ECM tracking that bit further off shore and doesn't develop the first system to the extent that the GFS does but does show the kink in the isobars.
The UKMO has let itself down lately by totally overdoing it and the ARPEGE should be coming into its own later today tomorrow but in fairness has deviated much.
All showing it to deepen rapidly on its approach and whilst passing to the NW of Ireland.
The UK is in for a right belt off it too.
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ARPEGE has moderated a bit over the last couple of days but should be settling in now. Still shows a very fast moving and deepening strong storm forming along the Jet and a steep thermal gradient.
Very big seas around our shores over the coming days. Little doubt now I would think that this will be a named storm. Very high rainfall totals especially along Atlantic coastal counties and high terrain, especially rough in those high winds and driving rain.
Interesting to see if the ECM stays the same or moves up the winds a bit.
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