Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

DavyR33 · 19-01-2024 11:09AM

Storm Isha named by UK met for Sunday-Monday period. (NI Specific)

Will be hard to differentiate the wind fields in this won't it? Messy setup this close out. Best be cautious.

aidanodr · 19-01-2024 11:27AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121637935#Comment_121637935

Carlow weather tweet about this:

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1748289770046837116

dsmythy · 19-01-2024 11:52AM

These are like accordions. Movement of air and depending on how it is being squeezed certain places will get a smack. Seems to be a persistent elongated squeeze of isobars showing up on the models for anywhere from the Scottish Western Isles to their border with England. Our North Coast could easily find itself in that mix if it wobbles that way and the Met Office is responding to that.

Seems to be a little narrow precursor to the main wind field clipping the SE showing up on the models from time to time?

ascophyllum · 19-01-2024 12:43PM

Arpege has dialled back the intensity a lot - looks like a more fractured system, Icon too, UKMO a little less intense too, GFS a bit upgraded and it's and all day event for the entire West coast. Hopefully by tomorrow morning there is some consensus.

If the event lasts into late Sunday night as some models are showing, it creates problems for Monday morning - at this time of year the first people put in the dark at 7,8am are students, plus schools can't assess damage until 8am or so when students arrive. Busses run earlier in many country schools as they have longer distances and multiple runs to do.

.Donegal. · 19-01-2024 01:09PM

Met office warning - Gusts will frequently reach 50-60 mph, perhaps 70 mph at times in a few locations and, along exposed coastal stretches 80 mph is possible at times.

pauldry · 19-01-2024 02:02PM

Generally an Orange warning storm I'd say with winds 110kph to 130kph with an odd higher gust in the Atlantic so probably an Orange warning in many counties and Red over the sea will be what Met Eireann shows for Isha.

19-01-2024 02:03PM

Don't think Sunday is going to be all that bad at this stage. No harm keeping an eye on it though.

Tuesday seems like the windier set up currently.

.Donegal. · 19-01-2024 04:28PM

Icon an upgrade on this morning

GFS currently 15mb deeper at T48 compared to this morning.

GFS

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2024 05:01PM

Very strong winds from the latest GFS 12Z, much windier and more widespread since earlier run, almost countrywide Orange warning if that holds up , very strong on coasts.

igCorcaigh · 19-01-2024 05:15PM

Orange for NI

Dazler97 · 19-01-2024 05:29PM

I'm gonna stock up on candles, batteries and gas for my gas stove in the event of a power cut , this storm looks widely orange warning perhaps an odd red warning thrown in as well

Robwindstorm · 19-01-2024 05:45PM

Dangerous looking storm now. Intensified to 950 on latest guidance. Interesting to see will it hold a main center or split and elongate. This will determine windspeeds and areas most affected. As of now its the real deal with a countrywide storm. The only downgrade from now on will be the position and shape of the system.

nacho libre · 19-01-2024 05:51PM

I still think the GFS might be overdoing it. Let's see what the ECM says.

adocholiday · 19-01-2024 06:08PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121640169#Comment_121640169

GFS doesn't tend to overdo the winds though. Looking at the 12z runs GFS and ICON are looking somewhat similar now with orange to red level gusts across the country tomorrow evening but ICON is slower to clear off. ARPEGE also still looking strong for the W/SW but the strongest winds staying out to sea and the east escapes the brunt of it. GEM much less severe than the others except for one frame showing Waterford/Wexford getting a spell of red-level gusts. HARMONIE coming into range now too, only goes up to midday Sunday so far but for what it's worth it's not showing the same strength of winds that the others are showing around the same time.

There's still plenty of time for modification. We're 48 hours away from the strongest winds yet and we're still seeing flips in the models. I'd imagine we're locked in for some sort of storm but the severity and duration is still very much uncertain.

Oscar Bravo · 19-01-2024 07:12PM

A very windy Sunday evening , Orange warning likely now with perhaps a marine red for SW coast

nacho libre · 19-01-2024 07:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121640245#Comment_121640245

I think it will downgrade, its very rare we get orange to red level gusts across the country. Though Some sort of storm is very likely as you say, the ECM tonight might give us a better idea of what we are in for

.Donegal. · 19-01-2024 07:23PM

Looks pretty severe to me

Cork2021 · 19-01-2024 07:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121640583#Comment_121640583

Yeah the Met.ie shows red warning winds pushing inland

adocholiday · 19-01-2024 07:59PM

ECM still not as severe as the GFS/ICON. This is the strongest frame of the run. High level orange to red for much of Kerry, West Cork, coastal Clare and Galway. High level yellow to orange almost everywhere else.

Dazler97 · 19-01-2024 07:59PM

I'm just waiting for met eirrean to update the warnings ⚠️ they may not until tomorrow but still, Amber has been issued as yous know for northern Ireland, Wales and Northern parts of England and Southern Scotland

Screenshot_20240119_185712_Met Office.jpg

Screenshot_20240119_185748_Samsung Internet.jpg

JanuarySnowstor · 19-01-2024 08:04PM

Not really convinced yet! Gales look persistent, severe gales at times. Maybe orange for coastal parts of the West. I just don't see it as disruptive tbh

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2024 08:50PM

WRF a very good model from this range, never one to overdo it, would be quite similar to the ECM, even as it it shows it would give very strong consistent winds over the country. Regularly gusting 80 to 100km/h and up to 100 to 110km/h overland for a share of the time for parts. Far reaching steady and long lasting strong winds for many hours in most of the island.

nacho libre · 19-01-2024 09:04PM

Sustained winds like that could do some damage. It reminds me of a storm back in 1990 that had prolonged strong winds albeit with stronger gusts than wrf are currently showing

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2024 09:18PM

Really fast moving deepening storm being hurtled along by the jet getting down to 945hpa perhaps, not much between the models, ECM and ICON probably the tidiest shape, GFS showing that secondary feature in there being swung like a sling shot , UKMO showing very tight isobars, more so than the others but too far ahead of the main bunch I would think for now.