Storm Isha - Sunday 21/Monday 22 January 2024

donal.hunt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121641919#Comment_121641919

Met Éireann are fairly consistent with stating that warnings are based on specific measurable criteria (unlike other organizations). Despite this there is some subjectivity regarding how much credence different runs / models are given and when alerts are issued.

In this case, the priority would be to get the message out that travel plans for Sunday evening should be brought forward and travel plans for early Monday morning should be delayed where possible due to expected disruption. The fact this is a weekend evening into weekday morning event means that most people will just plan to stay at home. If this was due to hit major population areas at rush hour during the week, I would expect stronger language to urge changes in behaviour where possible. Red warnings trigger a lot of disruption (schools closed, no public transport, businesses closed, etc) with knock-on impact for staffing in most businesses and organisations.

aidanodr

Alan Carlow Weather VIDEO update. Says West Kerry and other parts may turn read

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1748659815197421879

Leg End Reject

The weather gods are trolling me, I'm in one of 5 counties that only have a yellow warning.

So, that no snow and no storm. 😡

squarecircles

MARINE WARNING

⚠️ STATUS RED - Storm warning from Erris Head to Bloody Foreland to Fair Head

Southwest to west winds will reach storm force 10 or violent storm force 11.

Valid: 19:00 Sunday 21/01/2024 to 01:00 Monday 22/01/2024

Issued: 11:07 Saturday 20/01/2024

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643108#Comment_121643108

Yip

Meteorite58

No great changes in the models in general I think this morning. It is going through quicker than earlier shown with very windy conditions right into Monday on coasts and windy/blustery at times overland. Strongest winds for most in the evening with very gusty squally conditions sweeping across the country but the worst of it clearing the East coast by 02.00 or 03.00 but remaining windy for a time.

So for now it looks like widespread gusting 100 to 110km/h with higher gusts possible on more elevated ground. Some very high gusts on the coastal fringes of 120 to 130 km.h. Around Galway North Clare looks particularly windy for time tomorrow night, will see if any more developments there.

Could be some thunderstorms crossing the country during the evening with some very heavy squally showers with locally severe downdraughts and straight line winds type scenarios which would add to the weight of giving Orange warnings. As with all these storms, especially hurtling at us driven by the jet there has to be a margin of error built into the warnings either being a bit less or more than forecast.

Huge winds off the Donegal coast later Sunday night/ early Monday morning, i see getting a Red Marine warning, can only imagine the sea state there.

aidanodr

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643124#Comment_121643124

More updates .. ENTIRE country now ORANGE

Meteorite58

Update warnings now from Met Eireann

Meteorite58

Some very heavy rain to fall tomorrow also, might see warnings for that too, initially heavy frontal rain in the early hours with bands crossing the country during the afternoon and later very heavy shower troughs or squall line type features with embedded thunderstorms possible, heaviest of the rain clearing later Sun night and clearing the East coasts around midnight or so.

Initially mild day tomorrow followed by cooler weather for Monday behind the cold front.

nacho libre

106mph gusts off the north west coast. It's going to be bad up in Donegal, but for parts of the West Coast of Scotland it will be even worse.

Meteorite58

With all that shear and vorticity available tomorrow wouldn't be surprised to get a report of some brief local tornadic or severe downdraught activity.

cheezums

Tornadic is my new favourite word. Gonna use it in work next week.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643236#Comment_121643236

That's what I was thinking when you mentioned squall lines. Let's hope if there is any it's in an isolated spot.

pauldry

Only the winds seem to be from the Southwest Sligo would be in dire trouble. But even as it is there are dangers of trees down here and power outages. West and North of Donegal will be worst hit but this storm will likely be the worst one of the Winter and after Tuesdays mini storm that should be it for a few weeks at least.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121642337#Comment_121642337

I didn’t know they updated that and I don’t see it on the site? Adds to the confusion of them not including wind gusts in their text forecast any longer.

JanuarySnowstor

Everything is happening a bit faster on the lunchtime ECM run with the worst of the winds from tomorrow afternoon until 11pm. Other than North Coast its actually moving off by midnight.

I can't help but think this one is a Northern storm really

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643417#Comment_121643417

If it's a Northern storm how come UK met have nearly all the cost from Lands end to the North of UK in Orange

WolfeEire

Here she blows. Storm Isha beginning to wind up off the coast of Newfoundland from where the storm will cross the Atlantic in 24 hrs. All of Ireland is under an Orange Alert for Wind. Some Atlantic coastal counties, particularly Mayo and Galway, and north Ulster could see a late Red Warning issued.

weisses

Funny how all these feckin storms seem to have a liking for West Kerry. 😕

JanuarySnowstor

The storm is a welcome distraction from the charts which are dire for any cold returning back! It looks like the Strat Crew on Nweather have taken an extended holiday! Wrong but never wrong on the Mad thread while realistic posts are assinated lol. Anyway back on topic, 12s rolling soon should let us know tomorrow night's final position

pauldry

Looks like a lot of Red warning wind is out to sea. 100kph winds likely in Sligo but 120kph in Northern Donegal. Around 100kph at different stages around the country but don't think its as severe as we fear but I could be proved wrong. These things evolve and change a lot at nowcast time.

squonk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643701#Comment_121643701

Who could blame them. Good beer, good music, loveky scenery and great craic! 😀

WolfeEire

Luckily for the likes of Salthill, the strongest winds will occur shortly after Low Tide. Galway Bay and inland from there into East Galway and south Roscommon producing some fairly dangerous gusts. Black Head to Aughinish in Clare also in the firing line

coillsaille

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643817#Comment_121643817

Jaysus two of the Aran islands have been blown away on that chart!

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643859#Comment_121643859

Funnily enough, I am ten miles from the coast in Clare and there is a flock of seagulls flying over my house. Not a common occurrence. If only boards.ie allowed audio to be uploaded. No sign of Inis Oirr here though.

Storm 10

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643817#Comment_121643817

Think I would be worried about the 1am tide Monday morning

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643744#Comment_121643744

Assuming there is no last minute downgrades , I think some places inland could see gusts of 70 mph or more , there could be some localised gusts near 80 mph around West Connacht. Some coastal parts of Donegal may have close to 90 mph winds.

coillsaille

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121643873#Comment_121643873

I'm acoss the bay from the islands. Looking out the window I can just about confirm Inis Oirr is still there 😀.

The other two islands are hidden behind a wall of mist.