Cold spell - 14/15th January onward

WolfeEire

ECMWF 18z shows little change other than that mild sector is a fraction less mild and the cold gets in a tad quicker on Sunday (tomorrow). There is 10c of scatter by Thursday too, shared equally by colder and milder members. 18z top and 12z bottom. The 18z only goes to 144hrs.

There is a lot of scatter come Tuesday afternoon so you would hope that a slight shift west of those northerly isobars due to a regressing high might serve to wipe out that milder blip. That's still 4-5 days out but, at present, there is little support in the ensembles for it. Nor is there much support for a slider low in Wednesday which most of us have already written off but there is sleepless nights across the water amongst NetWeather members over it.

WolfeEire

The NAVGEM develops this low to our northwest which tracks over us on Thursday🧐 A poor man's Polar Low I would have thought in that Polar Maritime airflow.

It also shows the slider low pasting southern coastal counties of Britain. Just an observation. No other model, as far as I can see, brings the Azores low that far north as of now.

Condor24

We've had precious little snow since the 2018 event in the Midlands here. I can still count on one hand the really good snow events I've experienced in more than a half century of life. 1978 1982 1987 2000 2018. That's it. I was in England for the famous April 1981 blizzard, I was 11 and on Easter holidays, came home with all the snow tales for school, but nothing happened here, they thought I was mad, no mobile stuff then. We've had plenty of the 1-2 inch falls over the years, nice, but transient, no outstanding memories. Dec 2010 was the longest cold spell I remember, but only a little snow at the beginning, and that stayed on the ground for three weeks in the shade. Anyway, we can still hope February delivers that's all we have to cling on to. Otherwise, bring on the warmer sunnier spring days....

WolfeEire

What a waste of all that deep cold around us. The ICON 00z brings the Pest from the West in on Friday, a full day earlier than the 12z. Up to that it was more or less as you were from the 12z. Jetstream clearly fired up by the deep cold over North America.

And then the Atlantic puts us back in our box. We might run out of letters of the alphabet for named storms by the end of January by the look of the below.

WolfeEire

Gem snow cover by Friday evening. This is not to be relied on but is indicative of what areas may see snow next week. Ulster and Atlantic coastal counties favoured. Gem holds on to the cold until early Sunday with a slow moderating of the cold commencing late Friday.

UKMO holding fort

The Gfs op tries to be everything to everybody. It has a more forceful mild sector on Tuesday before cooling down and producing a sub minus 10c 850hPA on Thursday morn. It then wipes the cold way on Friday with a raging Atlantic storm.

The Thursday morning mean is very impressive at 6 days out it must be said.

The GEFS ensembles do illustrate the mild sector, but they show the rapid warm up late Thursday into Friday is an extreme outlier. The op run may be on to something as ICON did likewise. On the GEFS, the Atlantic pushes through later Friday.

Finally, Met Eireann's morning forecast states:

Tuesday: Current indications suggest Tuesday will be cloudier than previous days, with rain turning to sleet or snow at times over the northern half of the country. Highest temperatures of 3 to 7 degrees with light to moderate southwest or variable breezes.

WolfeEire

Just going through the ensembles and there is around 7 members of the 30 that entertain the idea of a slider low / battleground event next Saturday morning. Exhibit A below. It doesn't have much support but it may be worthwhile seeing if support for that scenario increases. A raging washing machine Atlantic remains the firm favourite to win out as things stand.

The members can be found below. Just go to the GEFS and pick them out

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&mode=1&code=6&ext=0

fits

Can we chat here. Delete if not. I have 7 year old twins and they can’t remember the 2018 event. (We were snowed in for a week). They were in Lapland last winter but have no memory of snow outside of that. I’d love a good snow spell for them.

Rebelbrowser

ECM cold for a few days and then blown away by the Atlantic. Would be lying if I didn't say its all rather disappointing but I will take my own advice from last night and see how the next few days go. The UKMO is pretty different to the other models at quite short range

Rebelbrowser

On the plus side, I see MTC this morning throwing a straw into the wind that upstream weather in Canada right now mirrors somewhat Jan 1947!

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609691#Comment_121609691

So the next chase begins! Keep an eye out for red squirrels and magpies..they are key.

On a serious note (maybe not that serious) ..as unlikely as it may seem the models can still change. (although they are starting to converge somewhat) This colder blast might be a little bit more stubborn than forecast to be brushed aside especially if we do get a bit of lying snow. Will it turn mild or just less cold over next weekend and early next week? Still a week away. What follows then could be the real deal. February 1947. Wouldn't 50% of that be nice.

Enjoy your weekend folks. No need to be stocking up on bread!

nacho libre

Wednesday and Thursday could be ice days, hopefully with some snow on the ground for some by that stage. I will be surprised if posters pangea, niman, snowmuckish , and Dazler don't get a covering of snow this week

Derekon2021

I think the lesson learned (once again) is that if deep cold/snowfall is modelled outside 48 hours for Ireland, you need to go on the basis it ain't happening. Stick to that rule and you won't go far wrong. The problem is the internet has given access to everyone to view snowmageddon 10 days away. Cue misleading posts and totally over the top expectations.

Netweather is like a veritable morgue this morning as the penny has finally dropped - after a few chilly days, our old friend the Atlantic will start it's endless winter rampage.......

D

pauldry

Nothing on the Internet is true anymore AI is just making up charts based on what month it is. Cue raging heatwave charts for Summer and then moderated warm spells ensuing.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609819#Comment_121609819

Ice days, which we could have next week, are now unusual for January. That to me is deep cold. Also there will likely be some snowfall, it just won't be extensive or lead to deep snow cover . While some models did show the possibility of more significant snowfall, 2010 and 2018 have really skewed our expectations. We should try to enjoy this week for what it is, one or two may even get a surprise. At the very least it's a break from the wind and rain.

piplip87

So we are looking at cold and dry, I'll take that given the drenching we've got since October. So outdoor tasks will be completed in anticipation for Spring, the dogs will come in from their walk without wet muck glued to them and dry.

Would've loved some snow but this is next best scenario.

Was meant to be in Málaga now enjoying the sunshine but an accident on the road to the airport the other morning meant a missed flight so a very depressed Mrs pip.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609883#Comment_121609883

Considering the last ice day in Ireland during the month of January occurred all the way back in 2011 (before the 7th Jan 2024). We've had ice days since but not in January...

SouthWesterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609921#Comment_121609921

A man after my own heart. Except for this is the best scenario.

Lots to do outside which can now be done.

Sympathy to Mrs pip but tell her it could have meant avoiding a catastrophe which she should be grateful for. 😁

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609843#Comment_121609843

Daily mail has been doing it for decades 😄

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609982#Comment_121609982

That's what I mean, they are rare enough in January. So we should appreciate it if we do have one this week. They make for nice pictures .

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121609982#Comment_121609982

There was (probably) an ice day in Trim very recently, just last Sunday. I don't have thermometers to prove it but there was thick rime frost on all surfaces that remained right through the day. Technically it was unlikely to be an ice day at I believe temperatures were above freezing in the early hours but below freezing during the daylight hours is what interests most people. First photo take around the 15:00 mark and aerial photos taken around dusk.

DOCARCH

There were ice days at two Met E stations last week. I posted about them in this thread.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610086#Comment_121610086

Yes that's 7th January 2024 I mentioned. Great shots by the way.

Kilkenny (Greenshill) additionally had an ice day that day Doc.

pureza

This ejected into the Atlantic is the reason our cold spell is likely to end early

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67947335

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610145#Comment_121610145

Edmonton will have its coldest day in 50 years. My friend was saying prior to this arctic outbreak the winter was unusually warm by their standards.

Stormyhead

Look, I will take four or five days of cold over wet muck. Though its very disappointing that we cant lock into a decent snowy spell in mid winter. But lets not rule out a few snow showers this week, even in Dublin.

PokeHerKing

I've been soaking up the canaries sun the past few weeks while keeping a loose eye on this thread.

Thankfully didn't have to fully board the roller coaster but it looked particularly wild this time out 😂

Dissapointed not to be coming home to snomageddon.

Pangea

Met office UK forecast looks promising for Monday and Tuesday

pureza

Well just to reiterate, there probably will be snow across Ulster and North Connaught

It's unlikely to be a busted flush from that perspective

Once winds were going to be North or northwest that was always going to be the way

CirrusBusiness

Quite a difference between MET's app morning temps for next week and on Meteociel for the same time!?

MET showing 2 degrees for Tuesday/Thurs mornings while on Meteociel it shows temps getting down to -4, possibly as low as -6c in parts on Thursday.

Have MET yet to update their app or do they see things remaining a bit milder over the coming week? These last few days have been a wild rollercoaster ride with so much uncertainty and crazy swings between models!

Many thanks to Wolf for the time, effort and non-biased updates/charts/analysis on the upcoming weeks weather. Hopefully we will have at least an ice day or a surprise dusting on one of the days. February may hold a few surprises after the Atlantic has it's way for a week or two. May even see some snow between transitional stages over the next couple of weeks too.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610390#Comment_121610390

Nearly certain that is based off the ECM, Cirrus. It is more or less a mirror image of yr.no which does the same thing and updates four times a day, usually 3 to 4 hours after the 00 06 12 and 18z output. I'm open to correction though