Cold spell - 14/15th January onward

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611014#Comment_121611014

Of course it has. And Met Eireann mention showers drifting south on Tuesday with snow mainly on hills. Wednesday and Thursday are looking cold, but there will be less precipitation about overall. I am just hoping a trough can develop on those days. We won't have to worry about a lack of precipitation over the weekend. There will be plenty of cold rain about then, but hey at least it will be technically milder

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121611027#Comment_121611027

I don't know for sure. Some sizeable changes in the ICON and GFS this afternoon with the Azores low tracking further north. Slider low snow for southern England on this one, like the ICON. We are expecting little to nothing so it can only upgrade from there and it may continue to do so for some.

Billcarson

I was almost getting excited at the possible potential for even a dusting on Tuesday so bad have our winters been. But Jesus Christ almighty we can't even get that.

WolfeEire

Coldest Mean 850s for Dublin yet. minus 9.4c at midday Monday. It's minus 10.3c in Belfast

Billcarson

Late Dec 85 during a cold snap,went for a walk in a very frosty Marley park in Dublin with my friend and his dad,was 12 at the time. On the way home in the car on the radio a scientist was saying such cold weather would become much more rare in the coming yrs. Less frost and snow. Milder winters. It was like getting a kick in the nuts listening to it. First time I ever heard about global warming,I always remember it. Hoped it was all BS..The rest.is history...........

WolfeEire

GFS Op pretty much nailed to the GEFS mean so what you see on output in terms of temperature profile is correct.

UKMO and GEM are a bit colder throughout.

This from the ARPEGE shows Tuesday bringing the greatest potential for more widespread snow showers. Right now the mild sector brings 850s of 4-5c for the island which is just too low to negate the Northwesterly polar maritime source of the precipitation. If it's snow you want, then look for that mild sector to be downgraded in future runs. There is 72 hours yet and any further fluctuations in the path of the Azores low will have impacts downstream.

There is further potential for showers or disturbances producing scattered outbreaks of snow moving down from the north into Wednesday night and Thursday when the temperature profile will be much more suitable. Dew points are another matter but we will look at them closer to the time.

Dublin has a snow row for the first time on the GFS. Totals, in the main, equate to the frosting sprinkled on a sponge cake however, though slime members give more appreciable totals.

850s cold for the week with the exception of that bloody mild sector

WolfeEire

12 ECM as you were with a breakdown later on Friday. This snow depth chart is indicative rather than a forecast

This is the GEM. Ski time for the people living in the hills of north Antrim

squarecircles

I remember something from years ago,it was great.

Dazler97

So foggy here in carrick I'm sure there will be a warning ⚠️ issued

Dazler97

Met Eireanns outlook looks good

WolfeEire

That is quite the 850hPA mean for Dublin at midday on Monday. Even out in FI it didn't get that low (-9.5c). Belfast bottoms out at -10.4c.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121612778#Comment_121612778

Looking good Wolfe. Might be a late xmas pressie for some..the ones you just cant buy!

WolfeEire

Perturbation 2, one if the 30 in GEFS ensembles suite, develops quite the snowfest (13cm) on Thursday. The below ensembles is for Dublin.

A 3.33% chance of coming off

pauldry

Ya maybe a few flakes of snow Monday but Atlantic based wet mush Tuesday and mainly rain then back to Northerlies and light flakes from Wednesday

Might get a few flakes on the roof of my car in Sligo. Anything would do in this modern roasting world.

Dazler97

Hopefully I get some snow here in carrick as I said even a cm will do me ,love is like snow you don't know if it will stick and you don't know how many inches you'll get 😆

.Donegal.

I haven’t been paying that much attention lately but I think there has been some upgrades for snow this evening

Aperge to late Wednesday evening. Northern half of Ulster fairing best. The snow in Connacht is accumulating Wednesday evening and it’s just starting to register in west Munster at the very end of the run

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613140#Comment_121613140

That's a significant upgrade. I've been following Aperge for the last few days and up to now it showed nothing for the 26 counties save Donegal.....

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613140#Comment_121613140

That particular chart records all snow that has fallen (and not necessarily settled) since 0hr which is now, and doesn't take into account melt. I am not sure if the Arpege does a 'current snow cover' graphic. That said, the image gives a good overview of where snow may fall up to Wednesday night.

Link to the Arpege here if anyone wants it

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=3&mode=42&map=330

It's an awful shame that mild sector is in place as this precipitation moves down the island on Tuesday. The greatest opportunities for any snow away from north Connacht and Ulster is Wednesday and Thursday.

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613173#Comment_121613173

Yeah I know so it will do a number on what hopefully will have fallen before the mild sector but what’s there for Connacht happens after the mild sector so at least that’s a positive if it happens.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613180#Comment_121613180

Good point. Hope you see a few flakes ❄️

WolfeEire

GEFS confirms that the cold spell will last until Saturday morning when wet and windy weather moves in. The ground could do with a drop in fairness ...

This ensembles is for the Midlands in case anyone's wondering about the snowline at the bottom.

Billcarson

Skies starting to clear here atm. Nice to see some stars rather then the cloud! Temperatures falling .I suppose it could be said the cold spell is starting .

Dazler97

Very frosty here in carrick -1c now

typhoony

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121610390#Comment_121610390

Depends on how strong the northerly winds are going to be, if they stay overnight then temps won't drop much below -2

WolfeEire

Weather advisory issued for all of Ireland, effective until Friday

Looking bitterly cold for the majority of the coming six days with good agreement that the cold will stay with us until Saturday. Remaining chilly, but more unsettled thereafter.

nacho libre

Tues looks the best day for more widespread precipitation but sadly it will probably be cold rain for most. Wednesday' s precipitation will be in the form of snow but it will probably be more localised. Places like Donegal could have snow nearly every day of this week. Even with the mild sector there should be a decent covering up their by Thursday night. Dazler97 and posters in Sligo and much of Mayo should see a covering too. Some other places further inland and in parts of Munster might see a dusting too.

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613225#Comment_121613225

I'm unsure of the comments about the ground needing rain are tongue in cheek or not but soils are very saturated. Below is the commentary from Met Eireann regarding current & future conditions.

"all soils types are saturated with little change in the coming week though some poorly drained soils in the far north and northwest will possibly become waterlogged".

Mr.Wemmick

Up near the north coast and the wind has turned in from the north, not completely chilly yet with some darker clouds hovering further north.

Great walk this morning with a little warmth from the sun. The birds are very busy and were making a loud racket this morning, I noticed.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121613798#Comment_121613798

The soils will be saturated for a while yet but thankfully water levels in rivers and lakes have dropped significantly during this cold spell. There was a real danger of widespread flooding if the rain levels in January were similar to levels in Q4 2023.

For example, this is the 5 week reading from the Corrib river which drains the lake. Look how it peaked above Median Flood level on January 4th and then started to fall significantly. I'd say all other river systems show the same pattern. We really needed this cold spell and long may it last!

Realtime waterlevel