Share Picks 2024

Take Your Pants Off

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121911609#Comment_121911609

Reg NWL, company does not seem to be profitable, neg return on equity, declining qoq growth, biggest red flag was debt to equity ratio, standing at 180%! It is a good risky play, considering the change in processes and cost redirections, but did you factor the above?

banie01

Took a healthy profit from my Canoo (GOEV) stake yesterday. The most volatile trading/price action I've seen in a while and certainly outside of the penny stock arena.

My post split BE was $1.92 and took profit at $3.40

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121913242#Comment_121913242

yes, factored in all above. Its risky, but like many companies that bought / merged other companies they took their time streamlining and they seem to have got it right this time and took an axe to underperforming sku's, over staffing and warehousing.

Gross margins have been increasing and a further increase is expected. Once one-off redundancy / closing costs are put aside, underlying profits are there and any increase in margin will feed nicely. All brands are decent market leading brands in relatively stable sectors. Its a relatively boring stock, but I feel the drop has been overdone and like DG (and M&S last year) there's decent upside.

p to the e

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121891234#Comment_121891234

As far as I know the creditor that was assigned (Interpath) is still picking at the carcass to sell off the company bit by bit. Once everyone who is owed money is happy then there may even be some left over for share holders (not likely). Then the creditor will sign the order to have them removed. I'm no expert but that's my understanding. You may also see a lot of litigation regarding this company and who knew what and when regarding short selling. There was a lot of unusual activity around 4D.

JVince

Any comments on Intel.

They lost their way for a while and are playing catch up, but they still are big players and getting substantial grants.

Shares have been lackluster when compared to peers, but last earnings suggested it might be turning the corner and possibly jumping ahead of Micron / TSMC in AI chip development.

Any sign of AI chip forecast could see shares jump just like Micron has done so in the past few weeks.

And is it now an opportunity to buy into Apple with the current negative newsflow? If iPhone16 becomes a must have product due to AI capabilities, it will soar again

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121925014#Comment_121925014

Intel foundry has big potential, if it takes off they will rocket in price

As far as AI goes, most of the demand is for business not so much consumer. AI capable phones may fall below expectations. AI become a bit of a buzzword lately you can throw at anything and investors will eat up - usecases are majority b2b

gossamerfabric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121902725#Comment_121902725

This guy is usually fairly close to right and his expectations for Tesla registrations is extremely pessemistic this quarter

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike

JVince

I looked at DWAC (now DJT) last week. Was tempted. Thought process was that all the trumpites would buy blindly and the shares would soar despite feck all value and no hope of any value.

But didn't think people would be that gullible.

How wrong I was. $40 Friday - hit €79 today.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121941837#Comment_121941837

I know, its mad isnt it!

md23040

What peoples view on IAG with upward action in share price in the last quarter and revenues going the right direction with P/E 3.77 Market Cap €8.7bn on turnover of €25bn. Had held this share during COVID and did well out of it before selling previously. Have Ryanair also not their P/E and general indicators on a different higher weighting think it’s P/E about 18+.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121946605#Comment_121946605

The risk with airline shares is an event out of their control can have a big affect on value.

Oil prices in particular. Pandemics, air crash, war etc.

But it does look good value as oil prices are stable and could start falling. Refining prices are relatively steady but still elevated and could fall back too.

Transatlantic and Asian Business travel is the profit engine for IAG, so a bit of research into how this is returning would be helpful. I suspect you will see it's on an upward trajectory.

So overall, high risk factor due to uncontrolled external items, but could see strong recovery if the winds are in their favour.

md23040

Bought £8500 on IAG today and intend to hold for 3 years.

On another thought, anyone ideas on renewable energy. Have Suncor and Vestas and Global ishares clean energy. Sold most of my positions shortly after COVID when interest rates spiked. Green Tech heavily dependent on interest rates and also during COVID material supply squeeze and price spikes had an adverse affect across the industry and renewables got hammered.

It’s hard knowing how much China will dominate solar etc so thinking of staying away from individual stocks and looking more towards ishares ETF.

Clean energy must soon come back into vogue, and the market continually growing with government and private expenditure. Anyone any thought on this sector and likely looking to take a 5 year view.

crushproof

Unless there are big tariffs on Chinese made green energy products I'd be wary of investing. From what I've read, Chinese solar panels are a quarter of the price of EU/US made panels and of course the Chinese are pouring cheap EVs into the rest of the world. Wind energy seems to be only market that China isn't a big challenger in.

ctomas

looking at a strange mix of companies for my next investment. Any thoughts on these:

DR Hortons (big US home builder)

CNX resources (Gas)

Games workshop (gaming)

Qinetiq (defence)

I think DR Horton is the least likely as I have some Kingspan, CNX is the front runner.

(Other more well known options are Ryanair, Intel, Paypal)

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121941837#Comment_121941837

And down to below $48 today after presenting it's results which where as expected (14x the loss vs. revenue for 2023 and not going to be profitable any time soon as per their own statement). How anyone thought a company with a total revenue of $4MM is that valuable says more about speculation than the basics of how a company works. Then again I have the same issue with reddit being valued at about $3 per post with a 20 year history of never being profitable…

gossamerfabric

Tesla share price tomorrow should be interesting.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121962904#Comment_121962904

Not worth $10 😃

But it would have been nice to take advantage of the more gullible trump fanatics for that one day.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121962978#Comment_121962978

Market is open https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/

gossamerfabric

q1 2024 delivery announcements come tomorrow.

patsy_mccabe

Anyone own 3M stock? Got a surprise today when I saw SOLVENTUM shares in my portfolio. I've got a few shares like that from spin-offs.

gossamerfabric

https://ir.tesla.com/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2024

386810 deliveries. That is not at all good.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121965597#Comment_121965597

Esp. not as it's suppose to be a "growth company" to motivate the P/E of 69 compared to for example Ford's p/e of 12…

gossamerfabric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121965736#Comment_121965736

Their powerwalls are not sodium based, no talk of switching to sodium based batteries anywhere, factories set up for lithium ion battery production, cybertruck an irrelvance outside U.S. and Model2 not due to enter production for another two years and will be built in Mexico rather than E.U. where there is an appetite for compact class cars.

I am very interested in the Model 2 as I think it will be revolutionary but from an investor perspective that Share is going nowhere but downward for the next while.

…and the Chinese auto market is completely fickle with Brand goodwill worth next to zero.

antimatterx

Taking a nibble at NIO at this price.

finlma

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964604#Comment_121964604

Share price of 3M dropped as a result. They've had a lot of lawsuits to deal with and big competition from cheaper markets for products.

JVince

Flutter - probably the only way to win at the bookies!

A bit like CRH.

Currently delisted in Dublin with primary listing in London and secondary listing in NY.

Vote to take place to move primary listing to NY. Needs 75%, but they'll easily get it.

It would then be a shoe-in for S&P 500 later this year.

It jumped 15% upon the NY secondary listing, but is way undervalued compared to Draft Kings and like CRH there's possibly 30%+ upside in it

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121964604#Comment_121964604

What are your plans with 3M and Solventum?

I know some are planning on reallocating to move exposure from one to the other and others are getting rid of one or the other - though I suspect most are just holding their current position in both.

Personally, my only position in MMM was short puts that expired worthless last week - but I've opened a position on Solventum today at $63.99. It seems pretty undervalued.

I hope to sell covered calls when they begin trading on IB.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121971701#Comment_121971701

I'll probably sit on both. How did you value Solventum?

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121971729#Comment_121971729

One of the things I like about US companies versus companies operating in other countries is the plethora of research sources usually available - obviously, not the case with such a new spinoff.

My understanding is that the spinoff has been saddled with most of 3M's debt - $7.7 billion in net debt as far as I can tell. When added to the $11 billion market cap, it's valued at $18.7 billion - or about 2.3 times 2023 sales.

Their margins are expected to be in the low-to-mid 20's in percentage terms and they are guiding for earnings of between $6.10 and $6.40 per share. Both very healthy figures.

The sales guidance for 2024 is negative 2% to flat which is the main concern and only reason I can see for current pricing.

At my purchase price and the upper end of their guided range of $6.40, I'm buying in at a P/E of 10; which I suspect is good value.

I rarely use the upper end when looking at such things but I also have a suspicion that guidance for a new spinoff could be slightly pessimistic. Management may dread the thought of guiding to the higher end of what they truly believe and missing for the first set of results post spin off.

Supercell

Gold is spiking incredibly, some are comparing to previous spikes before a market crash. I'm 50% cash right now and am up very nicely this year so far, I am seriously thinking of going all cash and letting T212 pay me interest on it. Has anyone any other thoughts/plans?