Share Picks 2024

marathonic

Slim pickings on the markets for someone looking to invest in 'value'. A few of the pharmaceuticals are at interesting levels but, of course, it's a risky sector and a promising pipeline can suddenly become almost worthless.

patsy_mccabe

My God, I see that Bill Gates (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust) has sold out of almost all his stocks in Q4 2023. That's worrying. Source Dataroma.

JVince

Away from tech and pharma, look at Dollar General (DG)

I've bought in at 133 after it being suggested by a family member in the US.

It made errors, tried to move into middle market, had wrong stock, margins got squeezed, stock halved. Previous CEO has come back and reversed changes, back to basics, has targeted to get more $$ from its main working class customer base by introducing more food items and tight range of fresh items.

Good bet to return to $200+ over the summer

Earnings 14th March

notsocutehoor

If only............

We all probably have a number of 'If only', today my if only is, if only I had held onto the 5,000 AMD shares (current price $201.34 as I type) I purchased in 2014/2015 for a total cost of $14,219.89...........

bucky08

I have just came across this company from a work colleague. I-mab don't know much about them but they have a very good 12 month price increase prediction so I have bought some on just that alone. Take a look and make your own minds up. Here's hoping it's a good one.

grange mac

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121837218#Comment_121837218

US tech v fraughty at this stage esp when compared to European stocks... Good to take some off table when see stock going for multiple of purchase price...

jams100

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121839632#Comment_121839632

Small cap biotech and China based is enough for me to run a mile. Considering you 'don't know much about them' I'd say your chances are as good with doing the lotto.

So long as your ok losing every cent then I wish you the best of luck. (At least they have a decent balance sheet so shouldn't need to dilute in the very short term).

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121839925#Comment_121839925

Reminds me a bit of my sister, she called me up all excited right before Christmas 2022 about how her friend she'd visited had told her to invest in AMC because they had watched a youtube video that all the short stock sellers in AMC would have to buy back their stock before the new year (for hand waved reasons referring to what happened to GameStop etc.). So it was going to sky rocket (this was after everyone on Reddit pulled into it "because it was a sure thing") to $500+ (it was around $50 at the time but as it was going to be a crunch again...) again and she was going to put all her savings into it and get rich quick and be able to stop working but she had called me to let me know. Thankfully I managed to talk her out of that idea (it's below $5 today) but the idea that someone would tell you how to get rich (or sell you the solution) instead of getting rich themselves never appear to have people stop and ask why. Some buy into the Bankman-Fried lies of "Oh I only want everyone to get rich" because it fits the narrative they wish to believe but honestly, why would anyone tell you how to get rich instead of simply doing it themselves?

gym_imposter

Shades of 1999 right now, relentlessly bullish and add to that stocks are completely ignoring the fact that treasury yields have risen considerably this past two months after having fallen a lot post the feds November dovish statement

bcklschaps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121832579#Comment_121832579

That was tipped back in the 2023 thread....when they moved their listing to the US around Nov. (availability of huge investment capital and undervaluation compared to US equivalent companies) Its worked out very nicely indeed. Think I bought for $54 it's about $83 now. I also bought some Flutter for the same reasoning, it hasn't been quite soo successful bought at $205 they are $215 now.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121844972#Comment_121844972

I bought mine for €24.40 during the Covid dip. Since they transferred to the London Stock Exchange, DeGiro doesn't show the % gain. I didn't realise till last week, how much I was up. About 3.2X now.

CiansBall

No I don't think the market is looking frothy.

Valuations are simply catching up with inflation. The market was down 20% in 2022, which was at a time where there was 10+% inflation.

Companies are raising their prices and customers are accepting them, meaning their earnings will be higher. This means price goes up to meet the same PE ratio.

Apples stock price for example is 5% lower than it was in December 2021. During that period, there's been 10+% inflation. This means Apple is worth much less than they were in December 2021.

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121853220#Comment_121853220

Definitely harder to pick up a bargain but, yes, many would argue that if you exclude the magnificent 7 (magnificent 6 maybe given Tesla's abysmal performance of late), the markets haven't moved as much as many would think.

Supercell

Apple and Tesla look to be lagging, super 5 more like it.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121837218#Comment_121837218

I wouldn't read much into that.

Almost all of those "sells" were showing as "bought" the previous quarter and the foundation still has $43bn worth of shares.

notsocutehoor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121808117#Comment_121808117

You should have held on for another 2 weeks, an extra $100 (at least) per share, up 300% in the last year

Supercell

I keep holding mostly in cash thinking surely the top is in, then it pulls back 1% and two days later makes another ATH, knowing my luck the second i dip my toe in the water its going to dive . At least T212 is paying me interest for my patience!

crushproof

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121861621#Comment_121861621

Bonkers isn't it, makes no sense.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121629261#Comment_121629261

On Boeing, I'm in profit and the scuttlebutt around Boeing taking over Spirit Aerosystems has strengthened my resolve on this position. Boeing previously spun Spirit off in early noughties and the impact of that particular transaction on Boeing's travails today? Are quite clear. Bringing fuselage and sub assembly manufacture back in house, should ideally lead to better quality and far smoother production management and QCA.

On Canoo (GOEV) I've been steadily accumulating a position over the last 8 weeks or so. I think given the roadblocks Rivian has hit with their new factory, Tesla having capacity and quality issues too. That Canoo's recent acquisition of more factory capacity and the delivery of their USPS configured test vehicles are a good base for price recovery.

That said, their reverse stock split this week did catch me by surprise but I do appreciate the importance for Canoo of maintaining it's NASDAQ listing and that means that $1 a share is a requirement.

On NIO, again I've been slowly accumulating and have a BE price of $5.90 and I'm happy to keep accumulating at sub $6.50

I think NIO's biggest risk currently is the price war globally but China in particular. If BYD keep being as lean as they are? They could well be swamping competition over next few years.

p to the e

Interesting investigation by Financial Times on PinDuoDuo/Temu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2d8j_q2tl9c

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121876334#Comment_121876334

Well this latest weekend of Boeing travails has kicked the legs out from under my $195 bottom.

Looking ahead at either the acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems or just the arresting of the current decline and improving QCA is going to be an exercise in cash burn. There is no cheap way of improving and then maintaining quality control.

Boeing & GOEV may become either long hold for me, or Iay crystallise at some stage this year depending on my tax situation.

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121884729#Comment_121884729

It's tough to know what to do in relation to a Boeing position. I sold some Puts last July and August at $192.50 and $190 strikes respectively but have been out since.

In November, December and February, I sold Puts on Airbus but have been watching Boeing closely as Airbus moved above a price at which I was interested.

I do fear that some of Boeing's issues have fed into the price rise in Airbus but they can't really capitalise on any issues as, like Boeing, their order books are pretty much full anyway.

Not long back, I did watch a Bloomberg interview with Michael O'Leary where the question was put to him as to whether he would always stick with Boeing, regardless. He stated that, if Airbus were to come in 5% cheaper, Ryanair would be buying Airbus. He may have said this to avoid putting himself in a poorer bargaining position with Boeing - but the last thing Boeing would need at the moment is to loss major customers on top of everything else.

Were Boeing cutting corners in the cost of QC and will Airbus become more competitive? Will Ryanair place some orders with Airbus regardless, given how little planes Boeing are delivering versus what has been agreed? Even a single meaningful Airbus order from Ryanair would likely rock the share price of Boeing further.

Boeing and Airbus were what I, last year, would have considered safe bets. They are, after all, a duopoly with orderbooks that are full for years to come. For sure, I'll continue to watch both - but I'm somewhat reluctant to dip my toes in the water right now.

marathonic

That's a very pessimistic price target on Tesla from Wells Fargo, who dropped the target from $200 to $125 per share today.

Some of the commentary included 'Growth company with no growth' and I have to agree to a certain extent. I do expect growth - just not the levels of growth that would justify the current forward P/E.

There are some formidable competitors now, where there were once none, and are more to come.

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121889211#Comment_121889211

Tesla's growth (Revenue above) is starting to taper off. Current price is at 142 times Cash Flow. Hardly cheap at current prices. One of the most overhyped stocks ever.

donnacha

I have some 4D Pharma still sitting in DEGIRO with a loss which I'd like to realise in 2024 against some of the gains against the rest of my portfolio. Does anyone know how you go about doing this or is that even possible? Obviously they aren't trading right now but they still have a value associated with them and I can't work out what to do. TIA.

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121837311#Comment_121837311

DG just announced strong results. But shares trading down with the market.

gym_imposter

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121889211#Comment_121889211

Those PT,s mean very little regardless of whether they are optimistic or pessimistic

marathonic

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121894550#Comment_121894550

For sure I wouldn't invest based on any analysts price target. However, there's no denying that such significant movement in a big analysts target does have an impact on the short term price. Should you not agree with their opinion, they can present a good buying opportunity.

md23040

Bought $10,000 of Tesla shares and not overly worried if the share price falls further as will buy more and do same play as Facebook and buy in again at 1.60. Everyone absolutely hates EVs at the moment, especially since the early adopters who bought in got shafted with list prices cut by 10% in early 2024. And with worries of where technology going everyone running towards hybrids. This IMO will be leper product like Diesels, and before 2024 out expect sentiment to return to EVs, as the Chinese flooding the US and EU markets with cheap EVs from the likes of BYD, Nio, MG and Cupra that already much cheaper than Hybrids.

Toyota and Nissan seems to be in trouble as China tidal wave begins and a new compact with solid state battery with BYD Seagull priced at $11,400 see below and 10,000 sold first day of release in the States.

It is anticipated that BYD will be the largest car producer in the world before the 20s are out and to massively continue to grow at scale and Tesla number 2. The car market up for a radical shift like the Japanese invasion of the 1970s but Tesla can withstand the pivot as it’s owns all its technology and software (some competitor ICE cars have up 150 types of external code written in different languages with API patches). Also Tesla does not have a dealer market and therefore no 10% sales margin given to garages and are a fully integrated manufacturer in total control of its supply chain. The share price of Tesla still very high compared to car companies but it’s not a car company.

Be happy for 2024 to remain negative for them but wanted an opening position. Time will tell - if it doesn’t work, well it one of 15 in the portfolio. My only big dud continues to be Alibaba but continue to hold and doubled it too in the dip

Also interested in Marks and Spencer as they continue to rollout its store refresh program that looks really cool and seems to be destroying Waitrose. Also the clothing range seems to be well received and the stores and tills anecdotally to me seem to be a lot busier.

Chinnese EV v Protectionist EU Price.

IMG_4646.jpeg

JVince

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121902725#Comment_121902725

M&S was a great pick for last year and I had it for a while. I don't see huge growth now as it is faced with a John Lewis revival and both target a very similar customer. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/03/john-lewis-refresh-turnaround/

I would look at Newell Brands. Took a position yesterday at $7.63. They own several major brands such as Sharpie, Papermate, Rubbermaid, Contigo, Spontex, Yankee Candle, Graco, Baby Jogger etc. A bit like Dollar General, it very much grew without controls for a while and ended up with too many divisions, far too many skus, an awful lot of overlap too. Completely streamlined the entire operation closing warehouses, cutting staff, appointing distributors for small accounts and merging units. Shares currently $7.66, $3.2b valuation, but could easily return to a $5bn valuation and $12+ if the final execution of turnaround plan is successful this year. Earnings 26th April

On tech, I think Apple is ready for a big move up due to their AI developments that will become more apparent in the months ahead. The iPhone 16 will probably have so much extra that it will be seen as a "must buy" and that will see iPhone sales take off.