Storm Elin⚠️ Saturday 9th Dec 2023 ( also Storm Fergus Sun 10th )

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2023 11:53pm #1

Might be time to start a thread for potential very strong winds over the weekend, There had been a deep area of LP tracking off or close to the N coast on Saturday but all of a sudden the main models have it tracking over the country and looks potential very strong. Sunday was the main focus with another fast moving system but now potential two strong windy days. Potential stormy also. Need to keep a close eye, a big upgrade today on Saturdays potential storm, sneaky one.

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 12:06am

Coming off the left side of the jet, fast moving systems, tricky for models and tricky to forecast.

Very wet over the weekend as oulined by the rainfall prediction charts below.

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 12:17am

Some of the Hi -Res models for Saturday , ICON a bit less strength but leaning towards it too.

adocholiday · 08-12-2023 12:19am

Some models showing fairly strong winds for Wicklow on Saturday. HARMONIE strongest with widespread orange gusts and red gusts in the uplands. ICON and UKMO HD going for widespread orange too.

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 12:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121469178#Comment_121469178

Yeah suddenly very strong out of nowhere, potential to get stronger perhaps ??

Widdensushi · 08-12-2023 12:27am

Very quick blow,mayo, Donegal which are used to strong westerlies getting the worst,I can't see red warnings at all

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 8:28am

AROME Hi- Res very strong winds sweeping across the country on Saturday especially the Northern half . Yellow and possible Orange warnings for a few counties.

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 8:35am

HARMONIE OZ

Donegal Ken · 08-12-2023 11:06am

At the moment I think we are looking at this system been named would be surprised if it wasn't. Orange warnings most likely across the west and northwest in particular.

whatever76 · 08-12-2023 11:13am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121470009#Comment_121470009

Would this include Sunday or just Sat you think ?

.Donegal. · 08-12-2023 12:39pm

Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone

Strong winds perhaps leading to some transport disruption.

Yellow - Rain Warning for Antrim, Down, Tyrone, Derry

Accumulations of widely 20-30 mm and locally 40-55 mm over the hills are expected.

Warnings above are for tomorrow.

adocholiday · 08-12-2023 3:30pm

Three separate yellow wind warnings issued for tomorrow.

A cursory look at the most recent runs showing it tracking further north though so the evening runs may put a different spin on things.

Oscar Bravo · 08-12-2023 5:02pm

Weather Warnings

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Tipperary, Connacht

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Strong and gusty west to northwest winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.
Valid: 08:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 18:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Strong and gusty west to northwest winds causing disruption and travelling difficulties.
Valid: 10:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 20:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal

Met Éireann Weather Warning
Strong and gusty west to northwest winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.
Valid: 12:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 20:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023

adocholiday · 08-12-2023 5:31pm

Most of the 12z models are out and seems more or less nailed down now. Overall it has mostly a North West/border county impact, with some very strong winds showing for the east too. Possibly could see some upgrades to Orange level in places if some of these materialise.

AROME: Widespread 70-80km/h gusts with stronger around Donegal and northern counties. Some of the strongest winds showing around Dublin Bay and North Wicklow.

UKMO: Very similar to AROME.

ICON: Similar story but strongest gusts very slightly further South, tracking around the border area. Gusts up to 140km/h for Leitrim and later the Newry area but usual health warnings with ICON's gust forecasting. Again strong winds also showing in the Dublin/Wicklow mountains area.

HARMONIE: Stronger (widespread 90-110km/h) and further South still, tracking mainly across the midlands. Also reserving strongest winds for the mountain and coastal Wicklow area, with orange to red-level gusts for a few hours on the Eastern side of the mountains all the way from Wicklow Town to Dun Laoghaire.

ARPEGE: More of a NE track to it so brings the strongest winds along the W/NW coasts, with eastern coasts possibly seeing some high-level yellow gusts. Widespread 70-80km/h overland.

GFS: A much less significant scenario, not even yellow warning level gusts anywhere overland, possibly along eastern coastal areas.

Sunday still a bit uncertain but: GFS showing a non-event really other than gusty along W/NW coasts, ICON and ARPEGE showing some yellow-level gusts for coastal Galway and Clare but nothing severe, but GEM and UKMO showing a stronger more southerly tracking system, bringing widespread yellow and localised orange level gusts to coastal parts of West Cork, Kerry, Clare and into Galway Bay.

David1 · 08-12-2023 6:44pm

Good summary.

squarecircles · 08-12-2023 6:55pm

All in all a pretty dull event, very hard to get A PROPER COUNTRYWIDE STORM THESE DAYS,

2 threads in the last 48 hours for very tedious non event systems,

just shows you how dull the weathers been.

sparrowcar · 08-12-2023 7:07pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472242#Comment_121472242

Love these type of posts, always make me laugh.

After the "actual" boring weather we had in Sep and Oct these last few weeks have been much more interesting for folk in these parts. Nothing exceptional but far from dull in fairness.

ninebeanrows · 08-12-2023 7:38pm

Latest ECMWF looks quite nasty at just T+24hrs

This would equate to at a guess 55-60kt gusts at Dublin Airport

Winds @ 850hPa

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 8:54pm

AROME not to be sneezed at, if it keeps these wind speeds could easily get into the Orange warning level across the NW, N, NE and possibly the E too. Fairly high end Yellow warning sweeping across the country gusting up to 90 km/h.

Good shot of rain overnight, fairly dry day for most with a few showers , heavy showers or more prolonged rainfall in Northern counties.

Donegal Ken · 08-12-2023 9:10pm

I think this is another great example yet again when it comes to issuing warnings for the northwest of Ireland it's almost like it's forgotten. If this was any other part of the country more than likely Met Eireann would of issued an orange warning already at this stage. There forecast includes for tomorrow Damaging gusts. Will it be a case of another late orange warning. Flooding could be a risk also tomorrow in the northwest especially on top of today's rainfall amounts.

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 9:14pm

Sunday looking like up to 110- 110km/h on Western coasts and up to 80- 90km/h overland, possibly a bit higher in a few places.

adocholiday · 08-12-2023 9:30pm

It's quite a while since I saw average wind speeds like this forecast for south Wicklow. Well into orange territory there

Donegal Ken · 08-12-2023 9:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472698#Comment_121472698

Northwestern , Northern and eastern counties are at high risk of orange cretria gusts.

BlueSkyDreams · 08-12-2023 10:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472698#Comment_121472698

Saturday is the windiest day according to Met Office. Sunday quite a lot calmer in south Wicklow.

Oscar Bravo · 08-12-2023 10:18pm

2050 met eireann update

Very windy, locally stormy on Saturday with sustained high winds throughout the day - some severe or damaging gusts are expected. On Saturday morning, heavy rain will continue to push northeastwards over Ireland, becoming confined to the north and northeast by afternoon. Sunny spells and blustery showers will follow across the rest of the country, some of the showers will be heavy and with hail. Highest temperatures of 7 to 11 degrees in strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds.

Oscar Bravo · 08-12-2023 10:32pm

Sunday:

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Sligo

Strong and gusty west winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.

Impacts:

Difficult travelling conditions.

Debris, loose objects displaced.

Valid: 12:00 Sunday 10/12/2023 to 18:00 Sunday 10/12/2023

nacho libre · 08-12-2023 10:53pm

Given that update for Saturday,are Met Eireann going to name this system? It seems like parts of the Northwest could be high end Yellow or possibly in Orange territory

Meteorite58 · 08-12-2023 11:44pm

Very strong run from AROME 18Z, would think more likely in Orange warning level territory , stormy winds now sweeping across the country from West to east through central counties. Showing very high gusts in the West, possible gusts 120 to 140km/h. will see what the other models produce.

AROME never one to overdo it. These look very strong to me. Quite possible a named storm at this stage.