Storm Elin⚠️ Saturday 9th Dec 2023 ( also Storm Fergus Sun 10th )

Meteorite58

Might be time to start a thread for potential very strong winds over the weekend, There had been a deep area of LP tracking off or close to the N coast on Saturday but all of a sudden the main models have it tracking over the country and looks potential very strong. Sunday was the main focus with another fast moving system but now potential two strong windy days. Potential stormy also. Need to keep a close eye, a big upgrade today on Saturdays potential storm, sneaky one.

Meteorite58

Coming off the left side of the jet, fast moving systems, tricky for models and tricky to forecast.

Very wet over the weekend as oulined by the rainfall prediction charts below.

Meteorite58

Some of the Hi -Res models for Saturday , ICON a bit less strength but leaning towards it too.

adocholiday

Some models showing fairly strong winds for Wicklow on Saturday. HARMONIE strongest with widespread orange gusts and red gusts in the uplands. ICON and UKMO HD going for widespread orange too.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121469178#Comment_121469178

Yeah suddenly very strong out of nowhere, potential to get stronger perhaps ??

Widdensushi

Very quick blow,mayo, Donegal which are used to strong westerlies getting the worst,I can't see red warnings at all

Meteorite58

AROME Hi- Res very strong winds sweeping across the country on Saturday especially the Northern half . Yellow and possible Orange warnings for a few counties.

Meteorite58

HARMONIE OZ

Donegal Ken

At the moment I think we are looking at this system been named would be surprised if it wasn't. Orange warnings most likely across the west and northwest in particular.

whatever76

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121470009#Comment_121470009

Would this include Sunday or just Sat you think ?

.Donegal.

Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Armagh, Down, Fermanagh, Tyrone

Strong winds perhaps leading to some transport disruption.

Yellow - Rain Warning for Antrim, Down, Tyrone, Derry

Accumulations of widely 20-30 mm and locally 40-55 mm over the hills are expected.

Warnings above are for tomorrow.

adocholiday

Three separate yellow wind warnings issued for tomorrow.

A cursory look at the most recent runs showing it tracking further north though so the evening runs may put a different spin on things.

Oscar Bravo

Weather Warnings

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Tipperary, Connacht

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Strong and gusty west to northwest winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.
• Valid: 08:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 18:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
• Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Strong and gusty west to northwest winds causing disruption and travelling difficulties.
• Valid: 10:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 20:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
• Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023
• 
  

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Strong and gusty west to northwest winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.
• Valid: 12:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 20:00 Saturday 09/12/2023
• Issued: 14:19 Friday 08/12/2023

adocholiday

Most of the 12z models are out and seems more or less nailed down now. Overall it has mostly a North West/border county impact, with some very strong winds showing for the east too. Possibly could see some upgrades to Orange level in places if some of these materialise.

AROME: Widespread 70-80km/h gusts with stronger around Donegal and northern counties. Some of the strongest winds showing around Dublin Bay and North Wicklow.

UKMO: Very similar to AROME.

ICON: Similar story but strongest gusts very slightly further South, tracking around the border area. Gusts up to 140km/h for Leitrim and later the Newry area but usual health warnings with ICON's gust forecasting. Again strong winds also showing in the Dublin/Wicklow mountains area.

HARMONIE: Stronger (widespread 90-110km/h) and further South still, tracking mainly across the midlands. Also reserving strongest winds for the mountain and coastal Wicklow area, with orange to red-level gusts for a few hours on the Eastern side of the mountains all the way from Wicklow Town to Dun Laoghaire.

ARPEGE: More of a NE track to it so brings the strongest winds along the W/NW coasts, with eastern coasts possibly seeing some high-level yellow gusts. Widespread 70-80km/h overland.

GFS: A much less significant scenario, not even yellow warning level gusts anywhere overland, possibly along eastern coastal areas.

Sunday still a bit uncertain but: GFS showing a non-event really other than gusty along W/NW coasts, ICON and ARPEGE showing some yellow-level gusts for coastal Galway and Clare but nothing severe, but GEM and UKMO showing a stronger more southerly tracking system, bringing widespread yellow and localised orange level gusts to coastal parts of West Cork, Kerry, Clare and into Galway Bay.

David1

Good summary.

squarecircles

All in all a pretty dull event, very hard to get A PROPER COUNTRYWIDE STORM THESE DAYS,

2 threads in the last 48 hours for very tedious non event systems,

just shows you how dull the weathers been.

sparrowcar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472242#Comment_121472242

Love these type of posts, always make me laugh.

After the "actual" boring weather we had in Sep and Oct these last few weeks have been much more interesting for folk in these parts. Nothing exceptional but far from dull in fairness.

ninebeanrows

Latest ECMWF looks quite nasty at just T+24hrs

This would equate to at a guess 55-60kt gusts at Dublin Airport

Winds @ 850hPa

Meteorite58

AROME not to be sneezed at, if it keeps these wind speeds could easily get into the Orange warning level across the NW, N, NE and possibly the E too. Fairly high end Yellow warning sweeping across the country gusting up to 90 km/h.

Good shot of rain overnight, fairly dry day for most with a few showers , heavy showers or more prolonged rainfall in Northern counties.

Donegal Ken

I think this is another great example yet again when it comes to issuing warnings for the northwest of Ireland it's almost like it's forgotten. If this was any other part of the country more than likely Met Eireann would of issued an orange warning already at this stage. There forecast includes for tomorrow Damaging gusts. Will it be a case of another late orange warning. Flooding could be a risk also tomorrow in the northwest especially on top of today's rainfall amounts.

Meteorite58

Sunday looking like up to 110- 110km/h on Western coasts and up to 80- 90km/h overland, possibly a bit higher in a few places.

adocholiday

It's quite a while since I saw average wind speeds like this forecast for south Wicklow. Well into orange territory there

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472698#Comment_121472698

Northwestern , Northern and eastern counties are at high risk of orange cretria gusts.

BlueSkyDreams

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121472698#Comment_121472698

Saturday is the windiest day according to Met Office. Sunday quite a lot calmer in south Wicklow.

Oscar Bravo

2050 met eireann update

Very windy, locally stormy on Saturday with sustained high winds throughout the day - some severe or damaging gusts are expected. On Saturday morning, heavy rain will continue to push northeastwards over Ireland, becoming confined to the north and northeast by afternoon. Sunny spells and blustery showers will follow across the rest of the country, some of the showers will be heavy and with hail. Highest temperatures of 7 to 11 degrees in strong to gale force and gusty west to northwest winds.

Oscar Bravo

Sunday:

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Galway, Mayo, Sligo

Strong and gusty west winds with the potential for wave overtoppping.

Impacts:

Difficult travelling conditions.

Debris, loose objects displaced.

Valid: 12:00 Sunday 10/12/2023 to 18:00 Sunday 10/12/2023

nacho libre

Given that update for Saturday,are Met Eireann going to name this system? It seems like parts of the Northwest could be high end Yellow or possibly in Orange territory

Meteorite58

Very strong run from AROME 18Z, would think more likely in Orange warning level territory , stormy winds now sweeping across the country from West to east through central counties. Showing very high gusts in the West, possible gusts 120 to 140km/h. will see what the other models produce.

AROME never one to overdo it. These look very strong to me. Quite possible a named storm at this stage.

Donegal Ken

18Z Arpege an upgrade also tonight and very similar to the AROME model.

Very strong wind moving into the west and northwest and moving eastwards across Ireland.

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473306#Comment_121473306

Wow, if that came off they would be very damaging winds. We are so used to seeing downgrades, this is a turn of events.

Meteorite58

A closeup of AROME. These charts would indicate Red Warning in the West

nacho libre

A very unusual situation if those models are correct with the last minute upgrades- if they are it's a worrying situation as many people will likely be caught unaware as they go out and about tomorrow.

Oscar Bravo

Knock Airport TAF showing possible gusts up to 55 knots between 11am-4pm

And for those in Dublin and the east Dublin Airport TAF shows a chance of gusts up to 58 knots (over 100 km/h) between midday and 3pm.

Either way a stormy day for many in the "top half" of the country.

a credit to Meteorite for flagging this one

Donegal Ken

They have left it very late with warnings and if the system was to be named should of been done this evening. That AROME model above is for later tomorrow morning and unfortunately anyone who has made plans at this stage could get caught out badly

Oscar Bravo

A Marine Orange warning issued

Status Orange - Storm warning from Belfast Lough to Strangford Lough to Howth Head, from Erris Head to Rossan Point to Malin Head and on the Irish Sea North of Anglesey

West to northwest winds reaching storm force 10 for a time.

Valid: 12:00 Saturday 09/12/2023 to 18:00 Saturday 09/12/2023

Issued: 23:48 Friday 08/12/2023

adocholiday

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473479#Comment_121473479

Met Eireann not going for the overland winds being shown on the models so. Be interesting to see how it develops if they keep it at yellow

Meteorite58

ECM 18Z a bit lower than the French models but still gusting 90 to 100km/h overland, the Swiss Nowcast possibly a fair idea of the ECM.

Showing it about the same for Sunday, gusting up to 110 km/h on Western coasts, 80 to 90km/h overland but will need to see tomorrows runs to be sure.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann starting to add the orange county warnings now, Dublin, Wicklow........

Donegal Ken

I presume the west, northwest and north will follow. Wonder will they name it.

Dazler97

Only found this now ,Dublin and wicklow now in an orange warning tomorrow, storm naming criteria

Donegal Ken

Only issued in the last few minutes. Very strange them other counties haven't been added yet.

Dazler97

I can see ,Donegal ,Mayo , Sligo, Leitrim and possibly roscommon and louth being added into orange warnings ⚠️ better late than never to add counties into the orange warnings but to me thats storm Elin

Donegal Ken

Storm has just been named

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121473589#Comment_121473589

I presume they work through the counties progressively.

Very late this time though, but the problem is clear for all to see, the second a storm is named the media hype it up even if it's days away, then if it's downgraded the public are like "what the fcuk, there wasn't a puff in east Galway but all the schools were closed"

Meteorite58

Very windy or stormy on Saturday as Storm Elin feeds in sustained high winds throughout the day - some severe or damaging gusts are expected.

Robwindstorm

Well done Meteorite yet again for sticking with it. I thought myself that these little systems had peaked in the Atlantic and would unravel quickly before reaching us. Nasty travel conditions on a busy weekend at Current guidance. Interesting to see what unfolds.

pauldry

The one earlier in the week died a death but several channels sourced the stronger jet this weekend. Only saving grace "maybe" is winds of 140kph May be kept out to sea off Achill before "weaker" winds of 110 to 120kph on land.

These winds probably peak around 11 to 1 in the West tomorrow morning and 2 to 5 in the East. All the while winds gusting near 100kph in the NW most of the day.

sparrowcar

No huge change in the Dublin airport TAF overnight.

Strongest winds between 1100-1600 mean speeds 30kts gusting to 52kts with a chance of gusting to 58kts between 1200-1400.

TAF EIDW 090500Z 0906/1006 14012KT 9999 SCT020 BKN030 PROB40 TEMPO 0906/0909 3000 -RADZ BKN008 PROB40 TEMPO 0906/0907 14015G25KT RA BKN004 BECMG 0907/0909 27018G34KT TEMPO 0908/0912 26025G40KT BECMG 0911/0913 26025G45KT TEMPO 0911/0916 27030G52KT PROB30 TEMPO 0912/0914 28034G58KT RA BECMG 0920/0922 26018G30KT BECMG 1000/1002 23010KT BECMG 1002/1004 15007KT=

.Donegal.

Donegal since added to orange warning alongside Wicklow and Dublin.

.Donegal.

09 December 2023 06:23

Today

Very windy or stormy on Saturday as Storm Elin feeds in sustained high winds throughout the day - severe or damaging gusts are expected. 

prunudo

I feel this this will catch many people by surprise. Right in the middle of festive weekends, keeping an eye on the news and weather will be furtherest thing from their minds.