If Metrolink was scrapped, what are the alternatives?

Idbatterim

I dont want to keep bringing the metrolink thread off topic. There are two sides, those with a crystal ball, saying it will be built and those not too confident, based on many very valid reasons and experience, disappointment over decades on the governments total lack of will and spending on public transport and rail in particular.

What are the options, if metrolink is scrapped on cost grounds, you cant say a high capacity metro is needed, then ditch it and say "ah shure buses will do it" HOWEVER! This is ireland and that is a totally plausible outcome.

In terms of a rail connection, are there options, that could connect the northern line to swords, to the airport and city centre, without the same spend? But actually be a realistic alternative. Not some luas finglas to the airport extension farce...

Consonata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058323182/metrolink-being-scrapped-alternatives

This is ridiculous, there is zero indication that Metrolink is going to be scrapped. I do not understand why you are so determined to be cynical on this.

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385402#Comment_121385402

Seriously? no irish government has ever delivered a rail project of any significant scale, the luas lines are mickey mouse, low hanging fruit, small sum projects, thats the reality... Thats one reason...

Zebra3

As much as a cynic as the next person, but MN barring an epic change in landscape, can’t be scrapped.

If it is scrapped, the country is finished.

Bad and all as the most of the current crop of government are (I know MM still lingering from a previous attempt to destroy the country), but compared to what went before them, I think they get how important this is.

The population is growing so rapidly, Dublin will not be able to continue to function at some stage in the future without MN.

There is no alternative.

Podge_irl

The Luas lines are absolutely not Mickey Mouse and beyond that are a beacon of good infrastructure construction compared to e.g. the Edinburgh tram.

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385428#Comment_121385428

I believe 18,500 units are currently under construction in Dublin, population increasing by over 30,000 a year. It would seem beyond belief that it could be scrapped, I agree with you. But I am not that old, yet I know this country too well at this stage...

Idbatterim

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385456#Comment_121385456

Right. The only rail have built in the last twenty years, in a city of 1.5 million , a European capital. With more money than they know what to do with... lines that in the city centre crawl along at walking speed, thats your idea of impressive is it ?

gjim

I don't get the claim that cynicism about project delivery is due to experience. The only big rail cancellations were those of MN and DU and that was due to the fact that the state was not even in a position to pay salaries of teachers, guards and nurses in the largest economic crisis since the 1930s. The GFC was a once in a lifetime (or more) event - but it's as if people have already forgotten its impact or the state of the country in 2009 to 2013.

Ireland has been poor since the foundation of the state (at least - arguably it was Act of Union) and has only been in a position to spend anything on infrastructure since the 1990s. Initially that spending was focused on roads - not an unreasonable strategic decision given the state of the country at the time. This spending resulted in an incredible transformation - from the most dangerous roads in western Europe (in terms of fatalities) with barely 10km of actual motorway to nearly the safest roads in Europe and with 1000km of high quality modern spec motorway. Two years ago, government strategy officially switched to allocate the majority of the transport capital budget to public transport infrastructure when previously PT spending was little more than 10%. The complete transformation of the road network in the space of 25 years shows what consistent annual capital spending can do. If the current strategy of spending most of the money on PT is maintained for 20 or 30 years, then the same is absolutely sure to happen for public transport.

The biggest risk to this is a complete change of government and/or the endless cynicism, negativity and denigration when it comes to developing PT especially when no account is given to history or fair comparison with other countries.

Also denigrating the Luas makes no sense either from a historical perspective - it represents the largest amount of new rail infrastructure built since the state gained independence.

This "Ireland is **** at everything" and mantra is both tedious and ignorant.

Zebra3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386072#Comment_121386072

Clonsilla-M3 Parkway was also built during this time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386072#Comment_121386072

I said they were not "mickey mouse" because they are not (unless you mean to refer to the 100B$ global corporation). Other cities have struggled to build far less extensive systems during the same period. They were also pushed through against significant media pressure from the usual sectors who then pretended otherwise afterwards when it was wildly successful.

The Luas is great and was a big capital investment. MN would have been built absent the worst economic crisis the country has faced since independence. ML will be built.

Zebra3

The Luas is a mixed bag.

Too slow in the city centre for the most part.

A shambles with regard to connecting Tallaght to the city centre.

Grand along previous rail alignments and the Naas Road.

Reminds me a lot of our cycle paths/lanes.

plodder

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385428#Comment_121385428

The multinational I work for had a large team of international sales people working in Dublin a number of years ago, but moved the whole lot to the south of Spain since then. If a city doesn't have an effective transport system where people can live in one side but easily work in another side, then it's not really functioning like a city - more like separate neighbouring independent towns.

tom1ie

OP good thread and thanks for starting as it’s a fair point.

I believe ultimately metrolink will be built and must be built if Dublin and hence Ireland, is to progress however it will (continue to) drag on in the planning stages due to the lack of capacity in ABP and then be referred to a JR- so we are looking at a Railway order from ABP, at the very best case of late 2024 I believe? Then a JR which could take 3 years so possibly late 2027 before we know if it’s going ahead?

It will then hopelessly run over budget in construction due to the lack of PM oversight on the states behalf- private contract PMs plus private construction contractors will do well off the back of it.

As a result any talk of a second metro line will be immediately shot down leaving the likes of tallaght, Rathfarnham, rathmines, terenure- absolutely gridlocked for years to come.

This is all based on an FFG and other government being returned as opposed to a SF government who would drive FMN away from Ireland due to their high wealth tax policies and as a result kill MN and blame it on an economic downturn.

This is also based on trump (if he gets in) not pushing his isolation policies to the max and demanding all FMN profits are returned to the US of A and thus crashing our economy in one foul stroke by removing the €37 Bn in wages that the FNMs pay in wages here.

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390329#Comment_121390329

Bit of doomsday for Monday.

SF are not so stupid to drive away the money. They know where it comes from. They know they'll never get into government again if they drive it away and they know Ireland will never be a single united jurisdiction if we can't afford it. Why would anyone in NI give up a privileged position between UK and EU if SF have taxed all the jobs and FMN away.

#eyerollemojii

SharkMX

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385402#Comment_121385402

How long has it been on the go now in some form or another?

There has to be a point when you come to the realization that its never going to happen, as much as you close your eyes and wish for it as hard as you can.

cgcsb

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386390#Comment_121386390

tram speeds in city centres arent any faster anywhere else. But yes as you said on street trams shouldn't be the main connection to distant suburbs, luas is over relied upon becasue it's all we have, it should not have been extended so far from the centre, this is a job for heavy rail or metro.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390329#Comment_121390329

MNCs arent going to up sticks and leave here unless we decide to invade the UK. Thats what it took for MNCs to leave Russia, despite all the other shenanigans and corruption and mad economic policy, it took a war and massive sanctions from multiple fronts for them to leave.

They will not leave Ireland except for downsizing when they are in dire straits themselves.

As for the second metro, I would not be surprised if a second metro line begins preparatory work before the 1st is even finished. The demand from neighbourhoods is clearly there for more lines, and once ML opens the demands for new lines will be monstrous. Everyone will want one for themselves. And its important that we keep a pipeline of both heavy rail and metro projects going for the next 50 years, else we risk losing that expertise. So ML-2 is fairly likely IMO.

JohnnyChimpo

Titles this clickbait-y should be bannable imo

Beta Ray Bill

The path the MN "Needs" to take is a bit of a pain. I passes through many areas that are medium density and not ultra high density residential zones.

Yes it will serve the airport (and that's very important), but the bulk of the passengers will be people commuting from Swords (Ireland's next City) to Dublin.

The busiest stops are going to be 2/3 in Swords Northwood, Ballymun, Dublin Airport and 2/3 in Dublin City. The rest of the stops are in either where no one actually lives: (Dardiston, Estuary) or are surrounded by 3 bed semi-D's. Its difficult to justify running rail under Semi-D's.

I think the planning system is as fault here as a combination of and underground rail and elevated rail is clearly the answer. But we're stuck with underground for most of the way which means its going to be extremely expensive. (The Stations are going to be the most expensive bit I think, Dublin has a lot of hills so they need to go deep with goosing the gradient).

DAA are also being an absolute pain in the hole with planning for this project.

Personally I REALLY hope it's built, but I think it'll be canned or kicked down the road.

EDIT:

Just to add, what's happening with the NCH is a real indicator of what "Could" happen with Metro. the NCH should have been a Huge win for the government, but poor decision making, design and possibly cronyism have seen that win turn into an absolute disaster with the possibility of Sinn Fein Taoiseach cutting the ribbon on it in 2025

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390891#Comment_121390891

It’s clear as day to all of us that a second line needs to be built- however I wouldn’t share your optimism saying it’s fairly likley.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391241#Comment_121391241

The current planning process black hole will eventually be rectified. And TII will not rest of their laurels - as soon as most of their work on ML starts to wind down, I can assure you they will already be ramping up proposals and feasibility for line number 2.

The whole point of these agencies is to always be working on projects - and politically after people see the success of ML it will be a no brainer for any govt to throw money at TII for line 2 or 3 etc

loco_scolo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391048#Comment_121391048

All of the stops will be extremely busy except for Daridstown - is that still a planned future station or part of the current plans? Estuary has P&R, then you have the Dart interchange at Cross Guns. DCU. The Mater. And don't forget all the bus routes that will feed passengers into every stop from every direction.

I think most cities are stuck with underground in the central areas, it's not unique to Dublin. And yeah let's hope lessons have been learned from NCH.

Beta Ray Bill

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391307#Comment_121391307

According to the latest map here: https://www.metrolink.ie/media/1zydyzmd/a4_metrolinkmap_railwayorder.pdf Daridstown is still planned (It's the depot). Estuary is marked Park & Ride so potentially it could be extremely busy now that I think about it.

Having looked at Swords, The line is on the wrong side of the town (Probably for convivence using the same route as the swords by pass, but no it's on the commercial/industrial side as opposed to the residential side)

Best job I could do overlaying Stops/Route with a map that shoes the type of buildings it passes under.

I think given the price it's going to be very hard to justify. As far as I can see they've put the stops in sites where there is nothing already built. (Makes sense seeing how deep they're going to have to dig.)

There's a good video on the armchair urbanist about costs rising exponentially the deeper you go.

EDIT wasted my time with the Map 🤣

Better one here:

https://tii-gis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/basic/index.html?appid=f87ac761c533446b8ddb554ce00fb921

Points above still remain valid. I think CBA will come along and state this is way to expensive.

Similar project in the San Jose been kicked down the road too:

https://www.vta.org/projects/bart-sv/phase-ii

Unless you can cut and cover, the cost are just prohibitively expensive

spacetweek

Thread title updated.

Consonata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391307#Comment_121391307

IMHO there is little point in trying to draw comparison with the NCH. They are distinct projects with distinct priorities and different supply chains and constraints. The same team that constructs a hospital doesn't construct a railway. If you are looking for analogues, look to BXD, a line which was built on time and under budget.

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121391298#Comment_121391298

I hope your right.

Consonata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121390329#Comment_121390329

Doomposting should be this countries national past time. We have a pretty good track record of delivering transport infrastructure on time and under budget once they get through the planning system. That's the bottleneck most of the time. There is no indication that TIIs costings aren't accurate (they usually are).

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392740#Comment_121392740

Yes I know ABP is the bottleneck which is what I posted.

It’s also very likely that whenever it gets through ABP it’ll face a JR.

It’s not “doomposting” it’s realism.

Consonata

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392817#Comment_121392817

It's not realism when it's not borne out by evidence of the current process however. Like when you actually interrogate peoples cynicism surrounding the project, we get the usual about the NCH, how Metro North got a railway order and never built, how this country is hopeless at building core infrastructure, when this couldn't be further from the truth?

I will happily criticise the NTA and TII in certain regards, but to say that they cannot design, plan and build infrastructure with relative efficiency isn't true. They're probably one of the few organisations in the state which can claim that title. This rubbish about FDI fleeing when Trump gets in/SF start taxing us all, is just irrelevant to whether we have the capacity to build ML or not

tom1ie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121392841#Comment_121392841

Ok so I never criticised TII.

Ive criticised ABP and by extension on other threads- Darragh o brien as he’s the minister responsible for ABP.

When/if metrolink gets referred for a JR that’s another 3 years onto the planning process.

In 2020 €1 out of every €5 was generated by a FMN amounting to 11bn and of that 56% was generated by 10 companies.

So yes an isolationist government in America coupled with a pro wealth tax SF would not be great for us and metrolink.

bk

The path the MN "Needs" to take is a bit of a pain. I passes through many areas that are medium density and not ultra high density residential zones

The areas it passes through in north Dublin are actually some of the most densely populated areas in Ireland!

Sure they aren’t “ultra high density” compared to the likes of Tokyo, etc. but they have a similar population density to where Metro lines pass through in Copenhagen and Amsterdam.

Also each of the stops has major traffic generators outside of residential, either Hospitals or universities near by.

• Mater - it is in the name, next to the Mater Hospital
• Glasnevin - going to become one of the most important and busiest transport interchange in the country.
• Griffith Park - Bon Secours hospital and DCU Alpha Campus on one side and a few minutes easy walk to the DCU St Pats campus on the other side
• Collins Avenue - Right next to the DCU Glasnevin Campus (actually now that I think of this, ML is going to be a major benefit for DCU linking up all their Campus).
• Ballymun - Right in the heart of Ballymun which is actually surrounded by pretty high density apartments now, along with the health center/civic center, etc.
• Northwood, close to IKEA, Decathlon and the Northwood business park and retail park. I do think this location is ripe for denser development.

Dardistown is obviously more about a park and ride for the M50, will likely be extraordinarily busy if they price it right. Also interchange for future Finglas Luas extension and Metro West.

Having looked at Swords, The line is on the wrong side of the town (Probably for convivence using the same route as the swords by pass, but no it's on the commercial/industrial side as opposed to the residential side)

The advantage of this is that these commercial/industrial will be redeveloped into high density residential (with some mixed used). Once the Metro stations are built the areas around the stations will become some of the most valuable land in the country. There is no way they will remain low density cheap warehouse, the land is far too valuable for that.

You see it is a lot easier to bulldoze a crappy warehouse and replace it with big apartment buildings, then it is to CPO peoples existing homes to do the same. So the location is a good choice here.

There is already extensive plans to build thousands of high density apartments next to these stops.

Go read up on the Swords Masterplan, in particular the plans for Barrysparks and Crowcastle and the Fosterstown master plans. Homes for an extra 5,000 people in these plans right next to the Metro stations in the areas you are talking about here.

And this is just the start, there will be a lot more redevelopment happening along the Metro line in Swords. It is a golden opportunity for proper densification around a Metro line.