Why I'll say no to a united ireland

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992233#Comment_121992233

In advance of a vote for a U.I., nobody can know for sure how a U.I. would end up. So many things to consider, not just relatively simple things like flags, anthems etc ( for which Republicans show little or no compromise) but things like taxation, merging economies, education, pensions, apportionment of national debt, NATO, policing, commonwealth etc.

People were caught with Brexit. Never again will a majority vote for something which they do not know the full details of.

Would'nt be surprised if Paddy Power gave odds of a U.I only 1 in a 1000 in the next 50 years.

mikep

Mary Lou wants a border poll by the end of this decade.

As they aren't in government ,they can't possibly be doing any real planning yet and I expect you will need more than 4 or 5 years to put together a comprehensive plan that would ensure a majority would support it.

You could spend 2 or 3 years going back and forth about the cost alone without dealing with anything else...

Francis McM

I would imagine the army council probably got here to say that.

They are not going to admit there will not be one for another 40 or 50 years at least.

N.B. There was border poll back in 1973, everyone was entitled to vote and a clear majority of the population (not just the electorate on the day) wanted N.I. to remain part of the UK.

Of course Republicans would not accept the democratic decision then. According to Michelle O'Neiil, there was "no alternative" to the armed struggle ( most thought of it as the terrorist campain of the pIRA ). If the future, if there was another poll, I could see a terrorist minority again not accepting the will of the majority.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992225#Comment_121992225

The only ones going on and on and on about a border poll this decade are Sinn Fein. The likes of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are already in the place that Northern Ireland needs to work first.

I don't see a need for anyone except those that want a border poll this decade to do anything. Look at the Shared Island Initiative - it sees investment from the Irish government out to 2030, but nothing about a border poll.

Why would the existing government or anyone else see the need for a plan or put forward proposals for a plan for something that they don't see happening for decades, it would be a complete waste of their time. They have their plan for the near future - the Shared Island Initiative.

Therefore it is incumbent only on those that want something quicker to do something about it, or else they can just talk and talk and talk and do nothing.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993196#Comment_121993196

Majorities in both jurisdictions want a border poll.

Presumably that is why SF are offering planning for one as part of their bid to be in government.
We also aspire to a UI constitutionally, so it should be planned for.
There is no excusing governments who sit on their hands for their own reasons.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992826#Comment_121992826

The Scottish Independence ref was announced in The Edinburgh Agreement in 2012 and the vote was held in 2014.
The 1973 Referendum in NI which was boycotted by nationalists was called in 1972 and held in 1973.

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993261#Comment_121993261

Calling and having a referendum can be done whenever a government wants...

Planning for one with such a complex outcome will take years to get the structures in place for the hoped for outcome.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993419#Comment_121993419

One of the reasons that the Scottish referendum failed was the lack of clarity.

Just look at our own recent referenda to see the peril of not thinking everything through.

We are a long long way, if ever, from a border poll being a reality.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993261#Comment_121993261

Interesting you acknowledge there was a referendum in 1973. On a voter turnout of 58.7 percent, 98.9 percent voted to remain in the U. K, meaning the outcome would not have been impacted without the boycott.

If you think the nationalist "boycott" was justified, as well as there being "no alternative" to the pIRA campaign, then in the case of the next referendum in N.I, using the same logic the loyalists would be entitled to "boycott" and mount a similar terrorist campaign.

You cannot have it both ways.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993419#Comment_121993419

Which is why it is long since time we begun to plan.

Outcome is no more complex than the Scottish Indy ref.

And I see blanch is suggesting it was lost because of 'clarity'. It was lost because at the last minute YES got ahead and London panicked and made promises it couldn't and didn't keep.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993444#Comment_121993444

And what effect did the boycott have Francis?

Exactly - none.

So boycott away.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993446#Comment_121993446

Ironically there was also scare mongering about Scotland being outside the EU and not getting back in if they voted yes and then look what happened just a couple of years later despite the people of Scotland voting to stay in the EU.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992185#Comment_121992185

The takeaway being, people can be persuaded, opinions change etc etc.

They can also be persuaded in the other direction, away from a UI. This is more likely given the polls on issues such as taxes and flags.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992193#Comment_121992193

This too is wrong, people have been discussing costs all week.

Ive asked you a few times, what is the cost going to be, and will there every be a cost that will be too high, in your mind?

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121992204#Comment_121992204

That would be approx 2 billion extra per year, just to service it.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993245#Comment_121993245

Majorities in both jurisdictions want a border poll.

Really?

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993446#Comment_121993446

I haven't seen any plans relating to integration of NI public services or removal of NHS to HSE style "management" of the health system..

Let alone how to integrate those who wished to remain in the UK

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993627#Comment_121993627

Yes.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/12/03/poll-shows-northern-ireland-rejects-unity-by-large-margin/#:~:text=More%20than%20three%2Dquarters%20of,longer%20timescale%20of%2010%20years.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993628#Comment_121993628

Not from your government - no. They continue to sit on their hands.
Plenty of opinion out there on it if you cared to look.

https://irelandsfuture.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/IF-An-Opportunity-for-a-World-Class-All-Island-National-Health-Service-An-Irish-National-Health-Service-1.pdf

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993718#Comment_121993718

Jaysus... that's a fairly lame attempt at defining what will happen.

Lots of aspirations but no defined actions from what I can see.

If SF ( or any other party) want a border poll to succeed they need clear steps as to how we will get there.. that document certainly isn't it...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993760#Comment_121993760

Because they can't 'define' actions. All they can do is present ideas, it is for government to make concrete proposals not a group or a single political party.

SF are smart enough not to be drawn into that and they are right for obvious reasons. Some people will say NO even if it is a good idea just because of who suggests it.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993780#Comment_121993780

Given the Army Councils extremely questionable judgement on what was right or wrong in the past, it is hard to blame a lot of people being dubious about anything SF or their unelected controlling Army council suggests.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993808#Comment_121993808

Yet at the last elections in both jurisdictions they were the biggest party.

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993780#Comment_121993780

Are you honestly suggesting that any party aiming for a border poll while in government cannot outline the actions needed, to enable reunification to happen, and how things will be run post unification?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993899#Comment_121993899

Only a government can do that in my opinion.

Plenty have opinions, but that is all they are.

The only Plan that counts is an Irish government one.

mikep

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993946#Comment_121993946

I guess we'll have to wait and see...

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993899#Comment_121993899

SF won't outline any serious proposals for a united Ireland for a number of reasons.

1. SF are about as serious about a united Ireland as the DUP. The sectarian divide helps keep both in power. It's just another version of the 2 party system that you see in the US and UK national governments. Shouting about a united Ireland wins votes both parties even if for opposite reasons.
2. A united Ireland would involve compromise. That would split modern SF as it split 1920's SF. Remember SF,FG and FF used to be the same party. This thread is a very good example where anyone who raises any potential issue with a united Ireland gets labelled a heretic by certain posters. A detailed plan would have these same posters turn on SF.
3. A detailed proposal would show SFs hand which wouldn't help in any negotiations relating to a potential united Ireland. It's just not a good negotiation strategy especially when you already know from various opinion polls the more detail you put forward the less support a united Ireland gets.
4. As Brexit showed emotions are better than facts in a lot of cases. This forum is a very good example. You have posters mocking Brexiters for their crazy assumptions in the Brexit thread and then making the exact same Brexiters arguments but reworded for a united Ireland. It's a very good example of the impact of emotions on a persons view points.

The fact is SF know that any detailed united Ireland plan will loss them votes. Far better to keep it nebulous especially as a united Ireland isn't a serious possibility in the short to medium term.

I'm singling out SF because despite what I said above they are the only political party even notionally interested in a united Ireland in the short to medium term. If there's no incentive for SF to provide a detailed proposal for a united Ireland,there is even less incentive for every other party.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121994242#Comment_121994242

They've put their cards on the table by saying they will begin the planning process once in government.
And tbh the accusation that they are doing nothing is badly researched. They are in constant consultation with the public via public meetings and participation in other events about what a UI might look like.

The quickest way for SF to lose votes is to not carry out their promises on this issue if they get into government.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121991684#Comment_121991684

Well hold on now just a second…

I didn't go into a big spiel about Irish monks saving all of Europe blah blah blah heroes of Iona etc.

I was merely talking about established facts: like the fact that were Latin scholars in pre-Elizabthean Ireland. I even mentioned one by name (John Clyn) so there would be no mistake about going off on flights of fancy. I also mentioned e.g. the bardic schools. I'm sure you've heard of hedge schools as well.

You are trying to imply that Irish people were completely without any institutions, learning, or aspects of civillisation of any kind.

Of course you can't state that outright because your 'narrative' can't withstand scrutiny. So you have just to imply you're responding to 19th century-style mythic boosterism about Ireland being an ancient glorious kingdom.

Effectively you are drawing upon a strawman imo.

Talking about 'mindsets', look at your own mindset. You have quoted nothing or nobody. You respond to none of my points individually but dismiss everything at once, implying I am in the grip of a historiographical delusion. You're too arrogant to try to buttress your own statements in any way.

Nobody here said that British institutional contributions to Ireland were null. Nobody here said pre-modern Irish institutions were superior to, or even on a par with, later British institutions - just that they existed and could have evolved. The claims made were reasonable and modest.

But you feel free to adopt a completely black and white version of history, in trashing your ancestors and mine.

If anyone is a ignorant nationalist, it's you. Your Pound Shop British nationalism makes my head hurt.

markodaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121993692#Comment_121993692

Wanting a border poll and voting for it, are 2 separate things.

Some would want one just to stamp on it.