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Why I'll say no to a united ireland

  • 05-04-2023 8:14pm
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭ beeker1

    Until there's no longer extremist politics in NI , and a middle of the road cohort emerges , then no to unification, to hear slab Murphy being eulogised and Paul quinns screams echo out , then no , unacceptable !



  • 100% NO to rewriting of our constitution. "United Ireland" would potentially allow them to do that.

    United Ireland under what, anyway? We're dictated to by the EU, for the most part. Wasn't it Micheal Martin who called sovereignty a "backward looking idea"? 😃

  • Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭ beeker1

    Don't know what you nean , it should be a majority vote in NI , not a wishful count here in the Republic , I've a feeling that the NI WOULD vote so ! the dup etc are an anachronism, protestant working class kids are waking up , they realise their friends are gay etc and shouldn't be vilified, but our sneaky shinners use populism to advance their hold on our snowflake generation, well get our just deserts in government

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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 8,838 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Jim2007

    It won't be your constitution and you won't get to dictate to them or the rest of the country how it will be done. You complain about being dictated to and then demand some of your own!

  • The point I was making, and what you fail to grasp is: any changing of the constitution will not be in your favour, or for your benefit. It will be to weaken your rights and freedoms, or simply abolish them altogether.

    Politicians, along with the lobby groups, institutions, and corporations that control them, do not care about your rights or freedoms. At all. To believe otherwise is naive, and you should stop doing that.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,665 ✭✭✭ trashcan

    Then why does it not need 80% in favour to keep NI in the UK ? Sauce for the goose and all that.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,949 ✭✭✭ Fionn1952

    The conditions that need to be met to secure YOUR vote aren't tantamount to any sort of veto, they're just the conditions to secure one person's vote, and you're entitled to set whatever standards you want on your own vote, no matter how ridiculous those standards may be.

    Of course, we're more likely to actually see 80% vote in favour of Unification than your standards becoming any sort of meaningful policy beyond your own personal vote.

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 10,985 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Hermy

    How do you know this to be true?

    Recent constitutional changes have done much to strengthen our rights and freedoms by abolishing the naive strictures of the past.

    Any attempt to do otherwise will be roundly rejected by the electorate.

    Genealogy Forum Mod

  • Registered Users Posts: 195 ✭✭ FoxForce5

    The vast majority of the north are either unionist or orange Catholic as can be seen by the share of the vote that the uup, tuv,dup and alliance have. Most of the Catholics are motivated by money not loyality to a united Ireland. We will never have a united Ireland and imho should have nailed the north to the cross post Brexit with a iron curtain level of hard border.

  • Registered Users Posts: 59,564 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    Effectively you hand a veto to Unionism, who can continue to be as regressive and exclusionary as they want, safe in the knowledge that all they need maintain is 20% of the vote.

    Apalling idea Furze.

  • Registered Users Posts: 19,868 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand

    It'll never happen. Not in our childrens lifetimes will it happen. It would cost us too much and they would lose too much

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,278 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus

    Pretty certainly you won't have occasion to say yes or not to a united Ireland until a middle of the road cohort has already emerged in NI.

    Under the GFA the sequence of events is: 1: apparent majority in NI in favour of a UI → 2: Secretary of State calls a border poll in NI → 3: border poll votes in favour of a UI → 4: UK government opens negotiations with IRL government to agree proposals for a united Ireland → 5: agreed proposals are laid before Westminster Parliament for approval and eventual implementation.

    The GFA doesn't say where approval in IRL comes into it, or what approval is required. But pretty certainly amendments to the Constitution will be needed, which means a referendum. And we're not the UK; we can't hold referendums on vague policy ideas that nobody has a clue how to implement. There can't be a referendum until the required amendments to the Constitution have been identified, drafted and considered and approved by the Oireachtas, and that can't be done until reunification proposals have been agreed. So our referendum can't come until after stage 4 in the process outlined in the GFA. Which means it can't come until well after a border poll has already been carried in NI.

    The conditions under which a border poll will be carried almost certainly require the growth of the middle of the road cohort. This growth is already well under way. The percentage of unaligned (i.e. neither nationalist nor unionist) MLAs elected to the assembly has risen from 6.5% in 2003 to 20% in 2022; the rate at which this change occurs has been accelerating. And the picture that we see in voting patterns is confirmed by census data; just 36% of NI identifies as "British" and 33% as "Irish". (22% identify as "Northern Irish", and the rest with a mix of other identities.)

    In short, if there is a border poll vote in favour of reunification, it will be because the growth of the middle-of-the-road cohort that you require has happened. This will be an established fact by the time that you get to vote.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 22,114 ✭✭✭✭ Larbre34

    Its likely that such a referendum might be run in GB in parallel to any border poll in Ireland.

    And to be clear, any border poll needs also to be run in the Republic when it does happen.

  • Registered Users Posts: 59,564 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    That would mean the British going back on the spirit if not the letter of the GFA.

    'It is for the people of Ireland alone to decide their fate without outside impediment'.

    Both communities would reject the sovereignty of Britain if the vote went against them anyhow. Look at Unionism at the moment - flat out rejecting the sovereignty of the UK.

  • Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭ AyeGer

    When a vote comes I will vote in favour of an untied Ireland. I’ll be happy to change the Flag (which I don’t like anyway) and the Anthem (do many actually understands it as it is?). And a new constitution will be needed. One that is fair to all the people of Ireland.

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 10,985 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Hermy

    Just curious - what do you not like about the flag? And what would you change it to?

    Genealogy Forum Mod

  • Registered Users Posts: 24,278 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus

    There'll be no referendum in GB; the GFA makes opinion in GB irrelevant.

    There'll almost certainly have to be a constitutional amendment referendum in the Republic, but as pointed out above that can't be held until some time after the border poll in NI.

    You could argue that there should be two referendums in the Republic; an in-principle one at the same time as the border poll in NI and a constitutional amendment referendum later on. But it's an argument you'd almost certainly lose. I think a better case could be made for saying that there should be two referendums in NI - a border poll and then, when concrete reunification proposals have been agreed, a confirmatory poll to be held simultaneously with the Republic's constitutional amendment referendum.

  • Registered Users Posts: 59,564 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    Acceptance of the GFA here was inferred from the result of our referendum.

    I.E. The question here on the ballot paper was about changing the wording of the constitution

    while the question in the north was a direct one.

    It will probably be the same in a UI ref?

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,150 ✭✭✭ Furze99

    As predicted above re a substantial majority of 80% being needed in favour north of the border, the usual chirp in that this is tantamount to giving the hard liners a veto on a UI. And not just unionists but also nationalists need to give their affirmative assent to new arrangements.

    I say that as a citizen of the Republic, we don't want or need to join with / take in nearly 2 million new citizens, if say 900,000 of them are opposed. No way Jose! c160,000 in favour and c400,000 against is more doable from a practical POV. Do people really want to revisit the idea of democracy that was on display in the Brexit referendum??

    So I say Yes to a United Ireland, if we have broad 4:1 acceptance up North. Then let us have our vote down South and decide the case on it's merits. Such a result is achievable with compromise, accommodation and co-operation between all parties up North. Working together, realising each other's sensitive issues and finding ways to meld. Down South, we have a lot of work to do as well. Over my lifetime, I perceive a growing institutional Irish nationalist arrogance in our affairs. We need to moderate more and start thinking of ways of truly respecting & accommodating the cultural British tradition that is present on the island as a matter of history.

  • Registered Users Posts: 59,564 ✭✭✭✭ FrancieBrady

    If you don't 'want' to do something, then it is up to YOU to convince a majority here.

    You cannot pretend to be a democrat and impose strictures on another jurisdiction.

    We hear this idea of 'super majorities' coming mostly from the Unionist camp and their voluntary/involuntary allies here.

    It is based in fear of the result, nothing much else.

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