Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion - Spring 2023
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Instability on Monday giving rise to widespread convective showers , some of hail perhaps and thunderstorms a possibility.
Upper trough with very cold uppers, cool enough day probably only getting up around 10 or 12C, showery troughs passing over the country, sunny spells also aiding convection.
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Unstable airmass following the front overnight into tomorrow producing heavy convective and at times squally showers with some of hail and parameters there for a spread of isolated thunderstorms. Quite a fresh day with quick moving showers. Sunny spells but on the cool side especially away from southern and eastern coasts, quite a cold feeling day along the Atlantic seaboard counties. Thunderstorm activity might peak in the Eastern half of the country tomorrow afternoon but anywhere could get a storm I think.
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Convection growing and moving across the country , a few strikes earlier North of Tipperary.
Heavy showers here in Kerry overnight and a few early this morning, good bright spells now and breezy. 10.6C
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Finally some decent April showers, pics from Old Military Road in the Dublin Mountains and Tallaght.
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To me it would seem that there is subtle instability tomorrow from an upper rotating trough and cold upper pool moving in over the S and E of Ireland producing a level of vorticity along with light low level convergence zones and subtle differences in land and sea temperatures all giving rise to the chance of heavy convective showers' and the chance, if somewhat small, of isolated thunderstorms . Mountainous or hilly areas might aid lift and around Wicklow/ Dublin might be one such area but chances are on the Low side. Bit of interest nonetheless. Sometimes these slow moving systems can let big convection grow unheeded as in that they are given time to mature slowly without being knocked over by strong winds. No supercells but could get some nice tall convection.
Met Eireann mentioning 'A fair amount of cloud tomorrow with the best of any sunny spells in the south of the country during the morning. Scattered outbreaks of showery rain over the northern half of the country will become widespread through the morning, turning heavy at times with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms leading to localised surface flooding'
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Early indications of convective conditions on Sunday as an upper negatively tilted trough with associated cold upper pool moves across the country coinciding with peak diurnal heating up around 17 or 18C, looks like a convergence zone along the Eastern coasts could help peak the chance of thunderstorms there as trough lines pass over but storms look like they could occur anywhere. Good sunny spells also helping convection. Some big heavy showers , possibly of hail too, heaviest probably in the Eastern half of the country in the afternoon. One to watch.
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Plenty of convection today too, heavy showers in places, a good test for tomorrow where the parameters are better. Decent CAPE, any sunny breaks would help greatly producing a few thunderstorms ⛈️
Post edited by Meteorite58 on3 -
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