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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion - Spring 2023
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16-03-2023 12:13pm#1
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Feeling very humid and mild here in Tralee, recent heavy shower, Convective look to the sky . Bit of CAPE in the afternoon when some heating gets going. We will see if there are any sparks , perhaps the Midlands, towards the NE ?
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Longwave upper trough from midweek to around Friday bringing much colder upper air temperatures , low level Lp systems and various fronts and troughs will aid instability with low level shear in abundance ( quite blustery along coastal areas at times ) and decent deep level shear giving some heavy showers and possibility of hail and maybe sleety showers on higher ground. Probably feeling quite cool this week especially with the breezy conditions. Will be watching to see if any thunderstorms form, lapse rates are good but heating is only very fair so pulse like storms if they are possible to form would think. Quite isolated in nature. Rainfall totals steadily building as the week goes on especially along Atlantic coastal counties.
Peak time for thunderstorm potential in the afternoons during peak diurnal heating especially if we get some sunny spells to aid lift.
Something to observe anyway in these quiet weather times.
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Big blustery showers here today in Tralee that died out early evening. A thunderstorm ran up along the coast and across N Kerry into Clare in the afternoon but it was a fairly weak affair. Cloud to cloud lightning showed up nearest to me near the coast and the lads at home heard the thunder for a while.
Tomorrow looks more active across the country.
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A chance of thunderstorms across Ireland tomorrow I reckon although quite isolated in nature, possibly peaking in the afternoon in the N midlands , N Leinster NE kind of direction . Big heavy showers again tomorrow with a chance of hail. Decent lapse rates , modest temperatures, ok shear, bit marginal but should produce a few sparks in the showery unstable bands crossing form SW/W to NE on a brisk flow.
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Reports now that the wind or tornadic event that caused some damage in Cork was just before 01.00. Some footage caught on CCTV below. Made all the more dramatic as builders insulation was blown about but it did damage roofs and windows also and reports of cracked ceilings. Don't know if it was a downdraught as it was quite localized. No Lightning sferics showed up for that time but can see the cell was active and showed fairly cold cloud tops. Sferics did show up earlier out around Bantry. Good bit of Shear available at the time.
There was fairly stiff winds in Cork around that time but these winds would have been a lot stronger.
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Bit of interest with some decent enough parameters for heavy convective showers and thunderstorm activity possible on Weds as a warm moist mass and possible troughs with a high Theta E reading moves up over the country, peak diurnal heating looks up around 16C or maybe 17C in the afternoon. Some decent MUCAPE readings. Looks relatively mild and humid.
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Not a lot of activity in the end, some very heavy blustery showers. Kerry cleared up to good sunny spells in the afternoon, blustery with occasional quick moving showers. Nice to see those Spring temperatures starting to rise.
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Instability on Monday giving rise to widespread convective showers , some of hail perhaps and thunderstorms a possibility.
Upper trough with very cold uppers, cool enough day probably only getting up around 10 or 12C, showery troughs passing over the country, sunny spells also aiding convection.
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Unstable airmass following the front overnight into tomorrow producing heavy convective and at times squally showers with some of hail and parameters there for a spread of isolated thunderstorms. Quite a fresh day with quick moving showers. Sunny spells but on the cool side especially away from southern and eastern coasts, quite a cold feeling day along the Atlantic seaboard counties. Thunderstorm activity might peak in the Eastern half of the country tomorrow afternoon but anywhere could get a storm I think.
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Convection growing and moving across the country , a few strikes earlier North of Tipperary.
Heavy showers here in Kerry overnight and a few early this morning, good bright spells now and breezy. 10.6C
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To me it would seem that there is subtle instability tomorrow from an upper rotating trough and cold upper pool moving in over the S and E of Ireland producing a level of vorticity along with light low level convergence zones and subtle differences in land and sea temperatures all giving rise to the chance of heavy convective showers' and the chance, if somewhat small, of isolated thunderstorms . Mountainous or hilly areas might aid lift and around Wicklow/ Dublin might be one such area but chances are on the Low side. Bit of interest nonetheless. Sometimes these slow moving systems can let big convection grow unheeded as in that they are given time to mature slowly without being knocked over by strong winds. No supercells but could get some nice tall convection.
Met Eireann mentioning 'A fair amount of cloud tomorrow with the best of any sunny spells in the south of the country during the morning. Scattered outbreaks of showery rain over the northern half of the country will become widespread through the morning, turning heavy at times with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms leading to localised surface flooding'
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