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USA 2024 presidential election

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    It’s not won on national polling, I know. But this isn’t good for Biden. He should be 10 points ahead of a rapist


    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    So apparently the main difference right now is that Trump is getting 95% of the people who voted for him in 2020 whereas Biden is seeing a much larger drop off in support, particularly in young black and latino men.

    Considering Jan 6th happened after the 2020 election that's a crazy retention rate for Trump.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Are those that have dropped back on Biden going to Trump or have they shifted to undecided I wonder?

    Hard to see how that cohort of people might see Trump as the better option.

    If nothing else, this polling will ensure that there's no complacency ab out the potential outcomes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,501 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    People still thinking with their pockets on the whole I think.

    If there's no rate cut before the election I think the messaging gets hard for Biden, as people are looking at things and saying, I had more money when Trump was president.

    The fact there's a global cost of living crisis is lost on most Americans as they don't see beyond their borders. And the fact that the cause of the current issues is the result of years of monetary policy is just not something that's easy to explain



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I'm not sure. I just heard those figures on a podcast.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,158 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    There's a massive amount of gouging that's driving inflation, simple as. Businesses are raking it in hand over fist and little has been done to address it.

    The Democrats need to be more aggressive in their messaging linking this to Republican obstinacy and campaign on legislation to combat it.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 21,102 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    when it comes to aggressive campaigns, the Dems are lightweights unfortunately


    It’s tougher to cause a Ruckus when you’re being reasonable

    they/them/theirs


    And so on, and so on …. - Slavoj Žižek




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,158 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    Ever the problem, Dems bringing boxing gloves to a knife fight.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    At this stage the Democrats have one very significant advantage - Money.

    They are out-raising the GOP by an enormous margin and multiple State level GOP organisations are functionally bankrupt and because Trump has taken control of the RNC and is keeping all the money for himself and his lawyers, they aren't going to help out.

    Even if they do play "nice" they'll be able to play in many many more places than the GOP.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    This right here is a huge problem for Biden:

    Green is when Trump took office

    Red is when Biden took office

    That graph is a little bit out of date. Current average gasoline price in the US is $3.73

    A lot of swing voters live in the suburbs and exurbs. These people are massively vehicle dependent and disproportionately driving gas guzzling trucks and SUVs so this price has a huge bearing on their household budgets.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭thinkabouit


    Personally hope RFK Jr wins.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,158 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I hope so, of course the Democrats have some insurmountable barriers, due to gerrymandering. NC is going from a 7-7 split to 11-3, doesn't bode well for the likelihood of gaining control of both Houses.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,652 ✭✭✭✭briany


    I suppose the election message of "consider purchasing a fuel efficient hatchback, and stop driving your kids 100 yards to the school in a ridiculous big car, you absolute cretins" would fall on deaf ears.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,374 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Considering that the MAGAts are into 'rolling coal,' I'd say no chance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Sounds good to me although it might be prudent to test that one first before unleashing it on the voters!



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Christ almighty



  • Registered Users Posts: 22 HakunaJuanMata


    Nice post.

    Great to hear from someone actually on the ground.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,028 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    I see that 538 have launched their Presidential Prediction model (currently 51/49 Biden). Interestingly enough Nate Silver left 538 a while back (ABC bought them out and slashed their budget) so he has nothing to do with this. Instead they hired G. Elliot Morris, who has done statistical modelling for the Economist in the past to work on this project. Nate Silver is soon going to launch his old model again (although he's putting it behind a paywall). The Economist also have their own model (currently 66/33 Trump).

    It'll be interesting to see if they all agree when we're closer to November.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27 DamiensNeck


    Interesting.

    As someone who wouldn't be disappointed if Trump won, I don't see him doing it at all.

    There's a lot of americans who trust the justice system and Trump getting convicted will surely impact him.

    When it comes to Palestine, it's hard to know the negative impact on Biden of their actions. Strong pro Jewish support but left wingers are obviously pro Palestine.

    Main thing I think is Trump just about got in in 2016 when he had all the momentum behind him. Drain the swamp, he'll lock Hillary up, build the wall etc. These were all novel. He doesn't have any of that anymore. Enough Americans are doing well to vote for Biden I think.

    I think it could turn into quite a substantial victory which will surprise people.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,842 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    I really think voter apathy towards Biden, and his low approval rating, will win this for Trump and the GOP… as opposed to DJT actually doing anything to win it. You have to remember, Biden was voted in with the highest ever total number of votes in 2020, and the second highest ever vote total was Trump in 2020. Trump would have won any other election, it was only a large amount of pro biden sentiment that got out the democrat vote in swing states. Currently looking at most swing states, Trump is ahead.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,385 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I really don't think it was "Pro-Biden" sentiment that got him the win in 2020.

    Biden is "vanilla meh" , he doesn't generate much in the way of buzz - He's generally speaking a nice human being and his politics are "US Normal". That's what got him elected.

    The turn-out and volume of the Biden vote was a direct response to how utterly divisive Trump was in 2020.

    Trump is even more divisive now than he was 4 years ago , he's also more unhinged and vindictive.

    George Conway made this point the other day , and I know he's heavily Partisan but he said that the Court cases in some ways are protecting Trump from voters as they aren't really hearing about what he actually has planned if he takes Office.

    That is going to change over the summer as campaigning really takes hold and as more and more swing voters hear the details of things like Project 2025 and the rest of the Christo-Fascist nightmare that would happen under a Trump Presidency any potential apathy or lack of enthusiasm for Biden will dissipate rapidly.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Biden needs an end to the Gaza war, and Netanyahu is not helping him at all.

    Biden needs to stop USA aid to Israel if the current ceasefire does not happen.

    Israel 'rescued' four hostages, but killed hundreds of Palestine civilians and three Israeli hostages in the action. Previously, the IDF shot dead three Israeli hostages waving white flags who had escaped capture. Not much said about that, or the starvation of Palestinians while Israel refuses entry to much of aid into Gaza.

    Says it all what this war is about - genocide and keeping Netanyahu out of jail.

    Not a lot of news about what is going on in the West Bank about Israeli settlers ejecting Palestinian farmers and taking their land with the backing of the IDF, or the shooting dead Palestinians by the IDF for throwing stones.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,061 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    The Iowa poll is grim reading for Biden unfortunately. Iowa was a state that was never in play for Biden but nonetheless if Trump is this far ahead their then you would be worried about what's happening in Minnesota and Wisconsin etc.

    No polls are perfect especially this far out but Selzer is as good as any of them out their.

    Biden could do with a very good debate next week for sure.

    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/06/17/2024-election-donald-trump-vs-joe-biden-vs-robert-kennedy-jr-iowa-poll/74088665007/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,374 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Biden's too old, too criminal, and leading CFTrump in the latest Fox News poll: https://www.salon.com/2024/06/20/biden-takes-lead-over-in-fox-news-poll-for-the-first-time-since-october-2023/?in_brief=true

    Independents swinging to Biden from those poll results, from -2 to +9 vs. CFTrump. Convictions matter to people.



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