FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

snowfan50

I had a feeling that we could get a repeat of something like we got in December 2010 when we got our wetter than normal October/ November, remember watching Mark Vogan videos back then saying where we get the rain back then we get the cold further down the road, something I think he picked up from Joe Bastardi who claims that weather patterns are cyclical and have a habit of repeating themselves down through the decades and centuries, here's hoping that it comes to fruition!🥶👍

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946269#Comment_119946269

Well, we hopefully will have gotten some snow by that stage, and with very cold surface conditions over snow fields, the higher upper air temps may not spoil the party. You may just get your wish eventually about lake effect type snow if the latter stages of GEM and ECM are correct.

icesnowfrost

Consistent model runs for the last few days. The GFS 12z is a beauty and the ECMWF is a cracker. Finally the runs showing some proper uppers for snow. Looking forward to see what will be produced next week.

snowfan50

Screenshot_20221201_220015_Google.jpg

Just found this while checking up on Joe Bastardi's twitter, looks very good according to him!

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946614#Comment_119946614

Spot on, once we get the surface sufficiently cold we can drop snow from -2c uppers as long as all layers up to the cloud base and through it are as cold, or at least don't have a thick layer of +0c mixed in.

For this, we'd be hoping that we draw our air source more and more from Scandinavia as this evolves. I think this is the most likely outcome. The LP that is set to spin south-westwards from Biscay over the weekend is the key to opening the easterly door as it entices the Siberian high west.

But before the easterly flow ramps up, we get a merging of troughs over east France and this helps spin up a continental low. This low staggers around and slowly crosses southern UK and Ireland into Tuesday/Wednesday and it beefs up off the SW Irish coast as it moves further west.

Meanwhile our old friend the Azores high is pushed northwest then northwards and it merges with a high and a ridge. The aforementioned Siberian high doesn't make it to Scandinavia - however an off shoot or a ridge does - and this pushes west over northern Scotland to link in with the Azores high that is forced up towards Greenland. The other high that joins up pushes north along the eastern seaboard of the USA.

All these highs and ridges merge to set up a super or blocking Greenland high and pressure over Scandinavia drops quickly as an Arctic low/trough set up and several low pressure centres have no where to go but southwards across the peninsula and to Denmark and on into Germany.

These are all cold lows, but we're on the colder side - so arctic icy cold air floods down over the ocean between Iceland and Norway with Ireland and the UK the target. Giving the milder than average SSTs, this is likely to be a very unstable airflow from the northeast and north with frequent shower troughs developing and at this stage of the evolution are highly likely to be snow right down to the beach.

mcburns07

Must Remain Calm!

NMB

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946752#Comment_119946752

Fantastic post - beautifully explains what I was trying to work out - I’d puzzle pieces but couldn’t quite get them to fit. Cheers Danno !

Danno

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946774#Comment_119946774

Health Warning: That is just a commentary on what the GFS today (12z) run says if it evolves exactly as it currently predicts.

However, the trend is very good overall with all major models showing a cold scenario developing as we move further into next week. It's going to get colder day by day from tomorrow night onwards. Weekend computer model watching is going to be quite a rollercoaster I think.

The jet stream is going on holidays for much of December it seems. Hope the prick bought a one-way ticket after that Autumn visit here.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946759#Comment_119946759

Arragh shtop, I am erect already!

Danno

The Omega.

Source: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=231&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

igCorcaigh

Nice post @Danno, you write like Agatha Christie.

snowfan50

Screenshot_20221201_232934_Chrome.jpg

Joe Bastardi says we are in for a blend of Dec09 and Dec10, the UK presumably including Ireland will be covered in a field of snow/ice by mid month and if he calls it you can usually take it to the bank!🤩

Dazler97

I really hope it pulls off very like November 2010 set up also reminds of after November 2009 with the extreme flooding in the west then the big freeze, I'm very surprised about the amount of pages already and technically winter has only started so very exciting times ahead although not getting my hopes up entirely as of yet because alot can still happen

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946833#Comment_119946833

The Atlantic is just... Dead 😁

Danno

The 18z pub run is less than convincing as it beefs up the jet to our south and this spins up a low off the Azores and plants it towards Ireland:

A blip hopefully.

Changwhitewater

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946922#Comment_119946922

The JMA, for what it's worth, does likewise

leahyl

Uh oh….

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946922#Comment_119946922

Well out into FI though tbf

snowfan50

The pub run is usually an outlier, wouldn't be too concerned!

Oneiric 3

All just reading into fantasy land, but the EC mean tonight suggests that a major blizzard could occur around the 15th/16th as an Atlantic low moves up from the SW and up against the lodged cold over NW Europa.

Ptrk85

Squeaky bum time over the weekend with the model runs to see if we get a proper embedded cold spell in what seems like an age! My personal FI for this is T48hrs, have been led up the garden path too many times.

Fingers crossed for some solid continuity for cold across the models come Sunday ❄️

Changwhitewater

GFS pub run certainly is an outlier. From Saturday on, there is a divergence in the ensembles, largely down to that low pressure system and its exact track. The black line is what the pub run depicted. It has some support for the milder outcome beyond day 12, but there is a strong weighting towards colder weather continuing. It's best not to focus heavily on anything beyond Wednesday as there will be chopping and changing going on with each run.

Changwhitewater

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947186#Comment_119947186

Met Éireann won't make a call on the likely severity or otherwise of the upcoming cold spell until Sunday, at earliest I expect.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947032#Comment_119947032

Emma's sister by the sounds of it

BLIZZARD7

The cold theme continues this morning, UKMO is very Solid, GEM and GFS head down a route that would see a prolonged cold and snowy spell for the country. The Atlantic is dead, little to no Polar Vortex over Canada seems to be making a big difference. Game on… ❄️

TheMilkyPirate

Looking at this mornings runs I think it could be time for a dedicated thread.

torres9kop

Getting exciting now. Fingers crossed it all falls into place

Kermit.de.frog

Thread on the way!! but will be more speculation than specifics at this point.

KingdomRushed

Looking v likely for snow and freezing conditions for ireland from late next week.

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947325#Comment_119947325

Well Kermit, MT Cranium still not buying into it just yet. Certainly no winter wonderland been depicted.

Maybe he he thinks the sea temps just a little high?