FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Billcarson

Will December 2022 be added to the list of cold December's in recent decades like 81,95,09,10. One for every decade maybe 2022 is the yr when it will be the 20s turn.

pauldry

Certainly looks a bit more promising now and there will likely be snow in some places late next week. At worst on the wicklow mountains at best everywhere (except Cork).

Temperatures are hovering around 0c on these runs whereas yesterday they were around 4c. Of course there will be more chopping and changing and it could still get ruined.

snowstorm445

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119948069#Comment_119948069

That's my memory of it as well. Snow cover seemed really deep and basically didn't stop falling for days. Some of the heaviest falls in the country for sure (about as heavy as I had in Dublin at the same time).

I only remember the end of the 2010 spell but the snow cover seemed a lot lighter in Cork compared to the rest of the country, I think at that stage the snow showers had gone and it was in the final phase of clear skies and extreme cold until Stephen's Day. Maybe it had been much deeper earlier in the month.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Great to see the interest and enthusiasm but please use winter thread for chat, this thread is just for +120hrs.

I'm sure a dedicated thread will be along shortly too 😉

pauldry

Thursday and Friday of next week look like the Wintry showers start after that cold air keeps digging in but may not be too much precipitation. Still looks like 4 to 7c possibly near zero in some spots.

SleetAndSnow

Met eireann showing a max of 1 degree and a low of -6 for my location on Thursday, along with Snow on Sunday.

YR.no showing max 1 on Thursday and a low of -4, 3 on Fri and -4 at night.. gonna be a big difference from previous weeks whatever happens

.Donegal.

🥶 🥶

torres9kop

Was in the local Centra earlier. Large box of fire logs for €10. Normally €17. Grabbed a few boxes. Stock up now before the big freeze hits 🥶

WolfeEire

12Z GFS run. Up to 126 hours (Wednesday evening), pictured right, the run is very close to the 06z (left) with the exception of the high pressure to our north and northwest which regresses further west towards Greenland. This allows a greater reach into our Atlantic for colder air surging down from the northeast.

This bodes well during the period of Wed-Fri next week for Ireland/UK, which were previously on the western periphery of the colder areas of airmass (-6 to -8c 850hPA). The latter now extends much further west of Ireland as opposed to hugging our western coastline. The effect of high pressure located closer to our northwest was reducing the potential for instability and consequent shower activity across Ireland. See the latest run (left) versus the earlier run (right) for Thursday evening. This is subtle but important upgrade for cold potential during that period for Ireland. Questions remain over whether the shift of the Greeland high pressure further to our northwest will reduce the potential longevity of the spell beyond Wed-Fri. The GFS suggests it does reduce the potency of any cold airmass over Ireland.

Overall, the potential for daytime temperatures remaining close to or at freezing from Wednesday eve through Friday (at least) is significant with a raised risk of wintry falls at lower levels. This shows up on the snow accumulation chart with coimparisons between the current run (left) and 06z (right). Note, that these charts are indicators as opposed to absolute.

Reticent to look beyond this 48 hour period (Wed-Fri), as so much chopping and changing is likely between now and then.

Images c/o meteociel.fr

igCorcaigh

https://www.met.ie/cold-weather-coming-our-way

...

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949687#Comment_119949687

Choo f**king Choo!

sean555

Wolfie back in, must be a good sign!

squarecircles

all looks meh, hovering around zero at nite ,up to 5,6. or 7 in the day, especially along western coastal extremities,very little precipitation,i think will survive...was looking interesting and prolonged there last nite...just as well no dedicated thread was made, ties in with MTs subdued forecast this morning, probably will return to standard mild muck during christmas.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949879#Comment_119949879

Love your optimism

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119949879#Comment_119949879

Met Eireann are giving 0 max on thursday and -2 min, max 2 degrees friday, max 3 Sat and max 1 Sunday with a possibility of snow, for Galway

Latest GFS charts are reading the same as well from what I can see? And you generally take one or two degrees off these as well, and factor in the easterly wind chill...

Thats a bit of a difference from current, not sure where you're getting 7 degrees from, to me those sort of temperatures look to be over the ocean

Villain

The model to model changes are subtle enough but there will always be some people that ramp like mad and some that meh it’s crap.

The pattern is fairly nailed on now but the details remain uncertain, anyone expecting snow beyond Wednesday is wishful thinking but anyone expecting mild to return is equally wishful thinking.

Let’s get the next few runs of models and get into non FI and see where it goes. New to this weather watching people would be advised not to take any one post or one model update too seriously. Have a look at all the info and then make your mind up. It is also great to see a former boardsie writing the update for Met Éireann, we are in good hands with Matty :)

rooney30

Thats the spirit

.Donegal.

Latest gfs upgrade in short term for me. 6/7cm to fall Wednesday night/Thursday morning. High of 2c for Thursday/Friday. Snow totals can’t be taken seriously at this early stage but better than the previous run for next week for here at least.

WolfeEire

The UKMO delivers a cold, and somewhat unstable airmass over Ireland from early Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it wintry precipitation to lower levels by Thursday evening if not sooner. Wintry falls could occur more widely on higher ground, particularly in Ulster and parts of the west and east, by Wednesday night. ECM begins rolling out shortly.

TheMilkyPirate

You'll usually find in set ups like this that the people coming in here saying it will be 7 degrees during the day and its all meh are more often that not living on the west coast.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950087#Comment_119950087

well ..yeah...like thats kinda obvious... what, i should be excited for cold that im not going to experience?

isnt that the whole purpose of life now, what i have,what i do,what i experience,and then slurry spreading it on social media, why would i care about the experience of somebody that isnt me.

jackrussel

It was more suited to the fiction section than the weather section. Thought that was fairly obvious.

WolfeEire

The ECM throws the cat (an area of low pressure) amongst the pigeons (areas of high pressure). It brings in the colder airmass over Ireland (minus 7-8c) over Ireland on Wednesday night. However, it amplifies an area of low pressure over the Azores and drives it northeast towards Ireland pushing back the colder airmass by Thursday night and into Friday. A significant downgrade on what has been a rather consistent cold run by ECM this week. GFS and ECM both going for a a rather fleeting period of very cold weather.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950162#Comment_119950162

yep,the wheels are slowly coming off.

Gonzo

ECM massive downgrade or a major model wobble. However it does show the power of the Atlantic and all it takes is one area of low pressure to spoil everything, just like the run up Christmas 2022. Not discounting anything so far until we see how the models are shaping up in the morning.

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950184#Comment_119950184

you must be in nirvana.

JanuarySnowstor

It's a right mess really isn't it! These models are not to be trusted especially the good looking ones lol

Wait and see really what comes in the morning. To get a 24/36 hour event out of this would be a right downer after so much potential last 3 days

WolfeEire

ECM ensembles will tell us if it's a wobble or is backed up when they come out around 745.

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950162#Comment_119950162

Christ.

You could kind of make peace with it if it was The Atlantic firing back up and wrecking the cold spell. I mean, we've been here so many times before and expect it living so close to a huge, mild ocean.

But no, it's an area of low pressure coming south from The Azores that does it! You have to laugh...

If it's any consolation, the whole continent is back in the furnace with the ECM, not just us.

Villain

All eyes on the ECM ensembles to see what support the op has. ECM is certainly possible but just one run from one model and GFS and UKMO different.