FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2022/2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

PokeHerKing

This was always the fear. Even with some of the best looking synoptics we could hope for we still weren't seeing proper cold uppers.

Hopefully we don't completely lose the blocking signal. I'll happily take a slow drip of cold over the Atlantic.

Dazler97

Has the frog opened a thread yet or is it just that bit early for one 😁🐸

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950245#Comment_119950245

Cancelled until next year!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950245#Comment_119950245

He will probably wait to see what tomorrow morning brings. We really need cross model agreement for this one and at the moment we do not have it.

nacho libre

I told you not to ramp it up JS, every time you do things go awry. I really hope the ECM is a rogue and unrealistic run, but i fear it has spotted a new signal and the other models will follow it in subsequent runs. It quite incredible how quickly it all falls asunder.

Darwin

Interesting tweet just now from Liam Dutton, having seen the latest weather data there is huge uncertainty from the middle of next and nobody at this point can predict what is going to happen (with respect to cold/snow).

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950279#Comment_119950279

I have to agree 😆

Still it won't stop us all being wide awake tomorrow at 5am!!

Donegal Ken

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950200#Comment_119950200

This is the reason a new thread was not set up until we are into a reliable time frame. It's only one run as Villain says above wait for the Ecmwf ensembles later.

Oneiric 3

EC ens suggest troughing slightly further west than previous runs. (was more over north sea) and more placed over us:

pad199207

There was a chap on Dublins 98fm this evening saying that it was going to be like 2010…

Villain

ECM ensembles show that run is at mildest options and main group is much cooler but certainly still an option. I wouldn’t go giving up on the cold just yet.

Oneiric 3

This low was more to the south of us on yesterday's run:

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950263#Comment_119950263

That's fair, I'm not getting my hopes up entirely yet but still want it if you get me

Brendan offaly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950298#Comment_119950298

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119947759#Comment_119947759

That was Cathal Nolan.

Midland weather channel.

I heard that myself.

I get nervous when he makes predictions like that so far out from the event.

Charts are so unreliable after 5 days.

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950292#Comment_119950292

Maybe when we wake up in the morning this evenings ECM will just be a bad dream and the cold spell will still be alive .

SleetAndSnow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950422#Comment_119950422

The joys of 120+ FI charts 🥲

Oneiric 3

Nice little webcast from the UK Met Office in which the forecaster explains what the models are offering regarding this potential cold spell:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_oTlCRzyDA

snowfan50

The latest tweet from Joe Bastardi still supports upcoming cold spell or am I wrong?

Screenshot_20221202_210708_Google.jpg

waterwelly

Met.ie have rowed back on the lowest temperatures for Thursday as well now.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950751#Comment_119950751

That would be an automatic reading based on the recent ECM. Just like yr.no.

Easterly Beasterly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950454#Comment_119950454

This is well worth watching. The bottom line is that the weather will be cold next week with winds from a E / NE direction. The can create battleground situations and somewhere in the middle could get alot of snow. How far North the low pressure gets will determine whether it's rain or snow.

High risk but high reward and definitely more interesting than your usual December in Ireland. My advice, enjoy the ride and don't stress about individual runs!

Meteorite58

The difference between the 0Z and the 12Z as they present , the 0Z would have been a huge dump of snow across Ireland and UK owing to the position of the Low and its fronts and the cold airmass, the 12Z not so, the Low dragging up milder air. From memory some of these battleground scenarios can produce some heavy snow but can be on a knife edge and go either way and not for the faint hearted if you don't like forecasts that chop and change 😃

Hard to know which way it will go but there probably is the potential for some extreme weather of some sort be it snow or possibly a deep low or storm or both given the temperature gradients . Its gas the way the ECM was the more consistent model with the cold airmass locked in and now two runs later it gets swept aside for us. After the last couple of runs I think we are going to see some more big swings in the charts before they settle a bit again to give some clearer picture.

pauldry

Yeah at best this lasts from Wednesday to Monday. After Monday back to our usual 7 to 10c from looking at models.

Cold Weather hates Ireland by the looks of things. Next Thursday to Saturday is the best hope of any snow falling.

And then a possible 3 day snow blast will be a morning.

2010 was a one in 150 year event. We won't be here for the next one in 2160.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950957#Comment_119950957

Are models accurate 8 days out now?

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950957#Comment_119950957

At best this lasts till Monday? The ECM just did a total flip, who says it won't again? Very amateur comment.

The posts in this fourm have gotten very sensational, one post is saying of apocalyptic snow and the next says it's all gone to crap (with nothing to back it up other than their mood)

Could we keep this thread technical at least? Less of the Daily Mail antics?

Oneiric 3

This animation shows how the EC mean (12z runs) handled the set up for Dec 8th over the last 4 days. Begins at what it showed on its Nov 28th run and finishes at what it is currently showing:

Fascinating to see that while the broader pattern remains the same that it is beginning to fine tune broader-scale temperature distribution. Seems it initially overdid the scale of cold to our NE.

WolfeEire

18z GFS and 12z ECM similar enough up to 120 hours after which there is a divergence on the positioning of the low pressure area out in the Atlantic and the blocking high over Greenland. See below. A weekend of weather watching awaits as it will be a few days before it's resolved. For what it's worth this GFS run favours a colder spell of weather from Wednesday on. Marginal for snow for most areas but no immediate signs of the Atlantic regime re-establishing itself here

Oneiric 3

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119951034#Comment_119951034

People are offering their thoughts on what the models show, that's all. Very easy to sit on the side lines to condescend and criticise without offering anything else of real value.

Donegal Ken

18Z GFS run is encouraging. At least it doesn't bring that low up from the south and keeps the cold spell continuing beyond the next weekend into the following week.

nacho libre

The latest GFS keeps the cold till the 13th at least, and a fair few people would have seen some snow at that stage, i think. We just have to hope the ECM climbs down tomorrow, because if it doesn't, i fear the other two main models might end up backing it.