NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

Quitelife

The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?

What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??

Quitelife

Alliance won the last seat in 7 Constituencies which could see them do well to retain all their seats.

TUV were eiminated in final count in 5 seats so they could gain , SDLP lost out in final count in 3 seats.

Hard to see Sinn Fein gaining anymore seats.

Brussels Sprout

Ordinarily you'd expect some kind of backlash against the parties who ensured that parliament could not convene. However, there's a counter argument that both the DUP & TUV are already down to their core vote and this is exactly what their core voters wanted them to do.

Turnout might be the defining variable, given that the last election was only in May. The last parliament didn't even sit and that might breed some voter apathy with some voters, particularly from the non-sectarian parties.

There's only been 2 polls and they appear to show similar enough numbers to what the parties polled in the May election (apart from one of the polls showing the DUP with a +3% bump).

So maybe DUP to win a seat or two back from the Alliance but probably not a lot of changes.

bmc58

Plus ca change,plus c'est la meme chose. ..sad.

retalivity

Surely there will be some backlash against the DUP for their behaviour over the last 6 months? They've gone all-in against the NIP to capture the the rabid TUV vote, to the detriment of any moderate support they may have had. Don't think they are going to gain back any floating voters from UUP or Alliance with the shenanigans since the summer.

Hermy

In the impending election could a united front from those parties that were willing to take their seats in the assembly aid that backlash?

Or is that even a likely tactic given tha fractious nature of NI politics?

pixelburp

At this point, does voter apathy help or hinder the main parties? My initial instinct is it helps the likes of DUP or TUV cos its angry hardcore will get out and vote either way, while the jaded undecideds and pragmatists simply not showing up? Why bother if there'll be another election in 6 months?

Conversely. I also see a scenario where those same demographics punish the intransigence of the DUP for nuking Stormont like bully boys taking home the ball that isn't theirs. It's hard to know.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119805680#Comment_119805680

Not really easy to do that with STV. Pacts ensured the SDLP took South Belfast, Alliance North Down and SF North Belfast in the last GE but that was FPTP

breezy1985

Surely a backlash or at least antipathy towards the DUP.

Only a complete fool can't see this is their fault and they have been a disaster since Brexit.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806020#Comment_119806020

I suspect the vote they got last time is perfectly happy with that.

There could be some change in Alliance/UUP voting. Don't think there's any way that Alliance would be second overall, or UUP biggest Unionist, which would both allow a way out of this by forcing the DUP in to opposition.

bucketybuck

If the people of Northern Ireland do not show their anger at the disgraceful contempt shown by the DUP then frankly they deserve everything they get.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806024#Comment_119806024

One problem for them is the line of being "the only way to stop Sinn Fein" has taken a dent.

Wouldn't be surprised to see their overall vote number down if maybe not actual seats.

Hermy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119806008#Comment_119806008

Maybe not a formal pact but a joint statement expressing their willingness to engage in the democratic process and get the institutions back up and running again.

Sam Russell

If Sunak ditched the Protocol bill passing through the HoL, them the DUP are up s**t creek without a paddle.

Now could he do that? Would he do that? Should he do that?

After all, it was Truss's bill, and she is totally discredited. He still has to deal with Braverman though.

He can claim a victory in that the EU have agreed to reduce the checks to next to nothing - until they find something.

O'Neill

Just say for hypothetical sake if the DUP are returned as the biggest party, I'm just a bit curious of what they do. Will they continue their absence from Stormont or will they actually try and form an executive because quite frankly if it's the latter that's probably going to end power sharing for good as we can all see what their actual motive in the last 6 months have actually been about.

FrancieBrady

There needs to be some robust fact checking by NI's media on claims being made and maybe some would be convinced away from the DUP who are now just lying through their teeth. First Sammy Wilson, touting 'many business men' talking to him and then Jeffery making bogus and sensational claims about the Protocol delaying heart surgeries.

rolling boh

I would think most if not all the DUP voters support their actions and will stay with them .I wonder will the Unionist vote be better managed this time just to make the DUP the largest even if they stay out of things . It really sickened them the last time with SF being the leading party so I would expect a bit of coming together to end that. Really can't see a huge shift in the votes overall with two sides with completely different outlooks .Also think most Alliance are Unionists if push comes to shove .

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119807310#Comment_119807310

It could be argued that the current impasse is at the design of the UK government. They need a perceived conflict with Eu in order to perhaps make more gains in the trade pact. Once NI Protocol is sorted,they lose that weapon.

They (UK Government0 have held off any negotiations/discussion on the NI protocol since Oct 2021, i.e. a whole year. If they wanted to sort this they would have engaged in September with the EU.

I think NI is still a useful point of conflict for UK to use at the moment

Quitelife

Theres a fair chance DUP could gain a seat or two and retake first place. They will allow the Assembley reconvene in that situation.

The DUP operate a bit like South Africa white parties operated years ago .

FrancieBrady

No election in 2022.

UK opts to continue the stalemate. My suspicion is they are about to sell out the DUP and reach an agreement on the Protocol. Stormont may be history.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832305#Comment_119832305

Not necessarily. They have 11 more weeks to hold the election. That allows them to hold one in January.

I wouldn't fancy having to campaign in January!

breezy1985

A delay is probably better for the smaller parties who must be almost bankrupt from the constant election campaigns up there.

L1011

SDLP are pushing a fundraising draw quite hard currently, for one.

All the parties have been on near constant campaign for something since 2014 (2014 locals/euros, 2015 GE, 2016 referendum, 2016 assembly, 2017 assembly, 2017 GE, 2019 local/euro, 2020 GE, 2022 assembly)

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832554#Comment_119832554

And barely a working government between any of them.

Quitelife

Watching TG4 covering Down Royal race meeting today at the minute, surprised the DUP havent put a stop to any Irish been spoken in the heart of DUP country.

Great coverage by the way on Terrastrial television of a big race meeting

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832305#Comment_119832305

Extremely rare I agree with francie, but pretty close here. There is a significant possibility Stormont will never restart.

gov knew the outcome of any election was further wipeout for SDLP & uup. Alliance and sf main ting vote as a minimum and DUP regaining the lost ground of the last election. Dup would simply have had a stronger mandate to stay out of Stormont.

I reckon there is a fudge coming from Uk/eu which will be presented to the people, thereby taking the wind out of the DUP sails.

I think we are looking at increased risk of a return to violence - initially low level.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833035#Comment_119833035

The DUP are being sidelined/thrown under the bus again. The world will move on without them again.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833035#Comment_119833035

While it's now trite to invoke Carson's most famous(?) quote about the Tories, if the DUP don't brace themselves for another inevitable and sudden inspection of the underside of a bus, they're even bigger idiots than they present themselves in the public domain. I don't believe there'll be any "fudge" from the EU, or the UK; after all, the Protocol IS the fudge and supposed solution to the NI promised; as before it's only political convenience that allowed the DUP and NI to remain relevant in the conversation. Prime Minister Sunak seems ... apathetic at best to the whims of a bunch of ageing Omniphobes. Power flows from Westminister, this is only going to end one way.

breezy1985

At what stage does it because inaccurate for us to say "thrown under" the bus.

It happens so often that surely it is now "existing prone on the road waiting for the next bus". Its not like they have even gotten up since the last bus. They are at this stage road furniture.

L1011

And their favourite bus maker is now owned by a Catholic!

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833355#Comment_119833355

It'll remain accurate while the DUP affect their bulletproof, earnest belief they somehow hold sway over the Tories, believe their promises, or think they can stand with their finger in the dyke indefinitely.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833355#Comment_119833355

Yes I would say it is more accurate that they keep jumping under the bus. That being the case and setting the dup aside, every single elected unionist in London, Stormont or council totally oppose the protocol.

we were told by many that it would not be negotiated and sf, alliance etc all called for ‘rigorous implementation’. We have moved that. I doubt you will find anyone now in ni calling for its rigorous implementation. Alliance are now calling for indefinite extensions to grace period - the very party that opposed extentions. So unionists have achieved a lot in last year and will continue same. But I don’t believe we will get all we need therefore the future is shaky

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

Donaldson level disingenuity. You were told the Protocol had built in flexibility to fix issues. The Protocol is not being 're-negotiated', it is not going anywhere, and the UK know that. Talks are ongoing.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

There is no evidence the Protocol is, or will be, renegotiated. It is the result of the negotiation in the first instance; it's just that one party decided that being in a phenomenally advantageous position, one foot in each trading bloc, wasn't good enough if it meant sacrificing <insert extreme-unionist concern here>. The DUP hold precisely zero power in this scenario.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

Paragraph 1 admits you keep lying down willingly for the bus.

Paragraph 2 shows you are gearing up to do it all over again.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833542#Comment_119833542

We were told that there wouldn’t even be discussions while the uk continued to progress the bill. Bill ongoing and discussions ongoing

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833774#Comment_119833774

The dup have been an unmitigated disaster, and would go into Stormont in the morning, except that the unionist community is warning them not to or they are finished

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833778#Comment_119833778

No you weren't,

The Bill will not bother anyone until it is enacted and Sunak ain't gonna start a trade war when the mighty UK is entering a never seen before recession. A deal will be done on the existing Protocol.

DUP and all anti-protocol groups are under the bus ...again.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833790#Comment_119833790

Decent sized sections of the Unionist community already telling them they are finished. The hardline nutjobs are gone to TUV and the kids are voting Alliance.

Quitelife

I hope your right but wouldn’t be so sure - the DUP have been spinning their bile for generations at this stage

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833863#Comment_119833863

I can assure you that if there had been an election there was going to be a significant swing from both TUV and uup to the dup. They were going to be leant votes because of their stance on staying out of Stormont until protocol is sorted. The gov obviously worked that one out.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835275#Comment_119835275

Doubt that. Trend seemed to be the Alliance and UUP vote would grow at the expense of the DUP.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835475#Comment_119835475

Alliance and sf vote would have held up well but the uup and TUV were in real trouble as unionists (like myself as a strong uup supporter) who detest much about the DUP were going to hold their noses and vote DUP on this occasion to dispel any myth that unionists could be coerced into bringing Stormont back while the protocol remained in its current state.

I agree with much of what is being said on recent posts, hence why I doubt devolution will come back for a very very long time if ever

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835817#Comment_119835817

As media reported this week it was pressure from Coveney that got the election suspended.

This is what you will get, Joint Authority (while nobody will say it out loud) and the DUP will be sidelined and we will all move on again like when the GFA was signed by everyone but the DUP.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835275#Comment_119835275

Why TUV are they not also anti protocol ?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835925#Comment_119835925

Because there was a swing to TUV by people who were frustrated by the mess that dup made of the situation in that they blackmailed mainland unionists and lost friends by securing £1billion for ni under threat that they would bring down theresa may, whilst sleepwalking into the protocol.

but people were pledging to lend their vote to dup provided they promised not to got back to Stormont while protocol existed in its current form.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835844#Comment_119835844

No doubt coveny wanted it suspended, for the reasons I outlined, but everyone bar dup was calling for it to be suspended as they all knew it would strengthen dup politically.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839704#Comment_119839704

Or lend their vote to the DUP because the truth is this is all about throwing a hissy fit because unionism lost the FM position.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839705#Comment_119839705

Not going into Stormont is a dead duck.

DUP have killed Stormont.

There was no point in an election. They'll now just let it slide and it will be Joint Authority effectively with nobody saying that offficially.

A deal will be done and Sunak will move things on.

DUP will jump up and down whenever the Irish Foreign Minister or Taoiseach goes north or 'interlopes' to sunjugate Unionists etc etc but on we will go.

Brussels Sprout

I'm really curious how the hardline Unionists think they are going to "win" with their approach.

1. They've already played the "We're not going back to Stormont" card
2. They're already heading down a demographic cul-de-sac
3. Most English people really don't care about Northern Ireland

So even if power goes back to London for the medium term how does that help their cause? All they're doing is taking power away from Northern Ireland. London isn't going to bring back "the good old days" when the other side knew their place and the British Army patrolled a hard border on this island. Hell they're not even going to ditch the "border in the Irish Sea".

The UK is heading into a long recession so its unlikely that there's going to be much appetite for starting a trade war with the EU over an issues that most English voters couldn't care less about. They found themselves with an intractable problem after Brexit over Northern Ireland. Boris Johnsons decided that the only way out of it was to throw the DUP under the bus. The DUP can't bring themselves to see that for what it was so instead they try and blame everyone else: Dublin, Brussels, Sinn Fein. They've deluded themselves that there is some other magical solution here. Well guess what - if there was it would have been found long ago.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840118#Comment_119840118

Input to the joint authority will be very much weighted towards the Republic but let's be honest Westminster doesn't give a sht what happens in NI.