NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833355#Comment_119833355

Yes I would say it is more accurate that they keep jumping under the bus. That being the case and setting the dup aside, every single elected unionist in London, Stormont or council totally oppose the protocol.

we were told by many that it would not be negotiated and sf, alliance etc all called for ‘rigorous implementation’. We have moved that. I doubt you will find anyone now in ni calling for its rigorous implementation. Alliance are now calling for indefinite extensions to grace period - the very party that opposed extentions. So unionists have achieved a lot in last year and will continue same. But I don’t believe we will get all we need therefore the future is shaky

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

Donaldson level disingenuity. You were told the Protocol had built in flexibility to fix issues. The Protocol is not being 're-negotiated', it is not going anywhere, and the UK know that. Talks are ongoing.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

There is no evidence the Protocol is, or will be, renegotiated. It is the result of the negotiation in the first instance; it's just that one party decided that being in a phenomenally advantageous position, one foot in each trading bloc, wasn't good enough if it meant sacrificing <insert extreme-unionist concern here>. The DUP hold precisely zero power in this scenario.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833495#Comment_119833495

Paragraph 1 admits you keep lying down willingly for the bus.

Paragraph 2 shows you are gearing up to do it all over again.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833542#Comment_119833542

We were told that there wouldn’t even be discussions while the uk continued to progress the bill. Bill ongoing and discussions ongoing

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833774#Comment_119833774

The dup have been an unmitigated disaster, and would go into Stormont in the morning, except that the unionist community is warning them not to or they are finished

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833778#Comment_119833778

No you weren't,

The Bill will not bother anyone until it is enacted and Sunak ain't gonna start a trade war when the mighty UK is entering a never seen before recession. A deal will be done on the existing Protocol.

DUP and all anti-protocol groups are under the bus ...again.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833790#Comment_119833790

Decent sized sections of the Unionist community already telling them they are finished. The hardline nutjobs are gone to TUV and the kids are voting Alliance.

Quitelife

I hope your right but wouldn’t be so sure - the DUP have been spinning their bile for generations at this stage

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119833863#Comment_119833863

I can assure you that if there had been an election there was going to be a significant swing from both TUV and uup to the dup. They were going to be leant votes because of their stance on staying out of Stormont until protocol is sorted. The gov obviously worked that one out.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835275#Comment_119835275

Doubt that. Trend seemed to be the Alliance and UUP vote would grow at the expense of the DUP.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835475#Comment_119835475

Alliance and sf vote would have held up well but the uup and TUV were in real trouble as unionists (like myself as a strong uup supporter) who detest much about the DUP were going to hold their noses and vote DUP on this occasion to dispel any myth that unionists could be coerced into bringing Stormont back while the protocol remained in its current state.

I agree with much of what is being said on recent posts, hence why I doubt devolution will come back for a very very long time if ever

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835817#Comment_119835817

As media reported this week it was pressure from Coveney that got the election suspended.

This is what you will get, Joint Authority (while nobody will say it out loud) and the DUP will be sidelined and we will all move on again like when the GFA was signed by everyone but the DUP.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835275#Comment_119835275

Why TUV are they not also anti protocol ?

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835925#Comment_119835925

Because there was a swing to TUV by people who were frustrated by the mess that dup made of the situation in that they blackmailed mainland unionists and lost friends by securing £1billion for ni under threat that they would bring down theresa may, whilst sleepwalking into the protocol.

but people were pledging to lend their vote to dup provided they promised not to got back to Stormont while protocol existed in its current form.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835844#Comment_119835844

No doubt coveny wanted it suspended, for the reasons I outlined, but everyone bar dup was calling for it to be suspended as they all knew it would strengthen dup politically.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839704#Comment_119839704

Or lend their vote to the DUP because the truth is this is all about throwing a hissy fit because unionism lost the FM position.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119839705#Comment_119839705

Not going into Stormont is a dead duck.

DUP have killed Stormont.

There was no point in an election. They'll now just let it slide and it will be Joint Authority effectively with nobody saying that offficially.

A deal will be done and Sunak will move things on.

DUP will jump up and down whenever the Irish Foreign Minister or Taoiseach goes north or 'interlopes' to sunjugate Unionists etc etc but on we will go.

Brussels Sprout

I'm really curious how the hardline Unionists think they are going to "win" with their approach.

1. They've already played the "We're not going back to Stormont" card
2. They're already heading down a demographic cul-de-sac
3. Most English people really don't care about Northern Ireland

So even if power goes back to London for the medium term how does that help their cause? All they're doing is taking power away from Northern Ireland. London isn't going to bring back "the good old days" when the other side knew their place and the British Army patrolled a hard border on this island. Hell they're not even going to ditch the "border in the Irish Sea".

The UK is heading into a long recession so its unlikely that there's going to be much appetite for starting a trade war with the EU over an issues that most English voters couldn't care less about. They found themselves with an intractable problem after Brexit over Northern Ireland. Boris Johnsons decided that the only way out of it was to throw the DUP under the bus. The DUP can't bring themselves to see that for what it was so instead they try and blame everyone else: Dublin, Brussels, Sinn Fein. They've deluded themselves that there is some other magical solution here. Well guess what - if there was it would have been found long ago.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840118#Comment_119840118

Input to the joint authority will be very much weighted towards the Republic but let's be honest Westminster doesn't give a sht what happens in NI.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840456#Comment_119840456

Unionism in general cods itself that Dublin has no say but that is just another one of their delusions. The UK will do nothing in NI without consultation and will sometimes take their lead from Dublin.

downcow

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840118#Comment_119840118

I would agree that Stormont is probably finished. 3 years of sf keeping it down over an Irish languages act (which they still haven’t got) and a few months of dup keeping it down over protocol. Can’t see anyone has really missed it either time.

I don’t doubt that the Uk may cave in and allow the gfa to be torn up over some piece of authority for roi over ni. But I can’t see that passing without a return to violence. What will that look like, I honestly don’t know. But I will predict that this side of Xmas loyalists will go more public on the difficulties any significant breach of gfa (eg joint authority) will present for peace on the island.

we are entering a dangerous game and I honestly don’t know what the outcome will be

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840341#Comment_119840341

They have snookered themselves, culturally and politically. No other grouping of the UK defines itself with such a distinct pivot of being against the other side - no matter the cost to logic or their own future. Watching hard-line Unionism twist itself in knots is a thing to behold; you just don't see anything remotely equivalent with Scots or Welsh Unionism, they seem happy with their identity for one.

The DUP will be written about by historians as the only case of a culture constantly at odds with itself and fighting against its own future.

Furze99

The very best thing for NI would be if the voters pivoted away from both SF and the DUP/TUV etc.

But I think all current elections do is to solidify the move to the extremes. SF have a very strong hold on the nationalist vote and are selling the message strongly to give them the biggest party representation. Meanwhile the DUP know they can use the Belfast agreement to withhold consent and will strongly sell the idea of getting the vote behind them in order to stop the Shinners having the most seats.

Both arguments are polarising but very effective in their own communities. The people are cursed by the respective monkeys on their backs.

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841475#Comment_119841475

On the other hand the number of people voting for parties that don't self identify with either of the 2 main communities has gone up in the past few elections. They won 18 seats in the May elections - a 50% jump from the 12 won in 2017.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119841475#Comment_119841475

The two big parties are not comparable though. Sinn Fein are moving with the times and developing policy to appeal to future generations.

The DUP are more backwards than that priest from Kerry. Being the bulwark to Sinn Fein will hold the vote for a bit but its not looking to get better for them on their current course.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119842128#Comment_119842128

How are the DUP backwards in this sense? They are protecting their communities interests as they see it and are reactionary to a growing SF vote.

That's maybe driven by fear but perhaps they have good reason to be fearful.

That's why a shift to the middle ground is important - exclude the zealots on both sides.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119842405#Comment_119842405

Its a dwindling community.

There is a reason why Alliance are strongest in Unionist areas and thats because young moderate people from Unionist backgrounds are ashamed of the DUP/UUP/TUV in a way thet young people on the other side are not.

Time is against the DUP unless they moderate.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119842435#Comment_119842435

Well dwindling and backwards are two very different things. If there is an election soon, much as I'd prefer otherwise, I think we'd see a role reversal and the DUP back with most seats. Which is why none of the other parties are too hot on the idea. But from an electoral strategy POV, you can see the merit for the DUP in the current set of affairs created by Brexit.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119842480#Comment_119842480

Yes but would they win more seats because they are a party with credible policy or because of the short term aim of "stopping" Sinn Fein because if it's the latter as I think it is then their days are numbered as the biggest party in NI.

Dwindling and backwards are the exact same thing when your voters have an expiration date and are not being replaced.