The DUP refusing to let Sinn Fein have First Minister means a December Assembly Election. Will the numbers change in a fresh Election?
What parties seats are vulnerable or who might make gains in any constituencies ??
I would agree that Stormont is probably finished. 3 years of sf keeping it down over an Irish languages act (which they still haven’t got) and a few months of dup keeping it down over protocol. Can’t see anyone has really missed it either time.
I don’t doubt that the Uk may cave in and allow the gfa to be torn up over some piece of authority for roi over ni. But I can’t see that passing without a return to violence. What will that look like, I honestly don’t know. But I will predict that this side of Xmas loyalists will go more public on the difficulties any significant breach of gfa (eg joint authority) will present for peace on the island.
we are entering a dangerous game and I honestly don’t know what the outcome will be
Unionism in general cods itself that Dublin has no say but that is just another one of their delusions. The UK will do nothing in NI without consultation and will sometimes take their lead from Dublin.
Input to the joint authority will be very much weighted towards the Republic but let's be honest Westminster doesn't give a sht what happens in NI.
I'm really curious how the hardline Unionists think they are going to "win" with their approach.
So even if power goes back to London for the medium term how does that help their cause? All they're doing is taking power away from Northern Ireland. London isn't going to bring back "the good old days" when the other side knew their place and the British Army patrolled a hard border on this island. Hell they're not even going to ditch the "border in the Irish Sea".
The UK is heading into a long recession so its unlikely that there's going to be much appetite for starting a trade war with the EU over an issues that most English voters couldn't care less about. They found themselves with an intractable problem after Brexit over Northern Ireland. Boris Johnsons decided that the only way out of it was to throw the DUP under the bus. The DUP can't bring themselves to see that for what it was so instead they try and blame everyone else: Dublin, Brussels, Sinn Fein. They've deluded themselves that there is some other magical solution here. Well guess what - if there was it would have been found long ago.
Not going into Stormont is a dead duck.
DUP have killed Stormont.
There was no point in an election. They'll now just let it slide and it will be Joint Authority effectively with nobody saying that offficially.
A deal will be done and Sunak will move things on.
DUP will jump up and down whenever the Irish Foreign Minister or Taoiseach goes north or 'interlopes' to sunjugate Unionists etc etc but on we will go.
Or lend their vote to the DUP because the truth is this is all about throwing a hissy fit because unionism lost the FM position.
No doubt coveny wanted it suspended, for the reasons I outlined, but everyone bar dup was calling for it to be suspended as they all knew it would strengthen dup politically.
Because there was a swing to TUV by people who were frustrated by the mess that dup made of the situation in that they blackmailed mainland unionists and lost friends by securing £1billion for ni under threat that they would bring down theresa may, whilst sleepwalking into the protocol.
but people were pledging to lend their vote to dup provided they promised not to got back to Stormont while protocol existed in its current form.
Why TUV are they not also anti protocol ?
As media reported this week it was pressure from Coveney that got the election suspended.
This is what you will get, Joint Authority (while nobody will say it out loud) and the DUP will be sidelined and we will all move on again like when the GFA was signed by everyone but the DUP.
Alliance and sf vote would have held up well but the uup and TUV were in real trouble as unionists (like myself as a strong uup supporter) who detest much about the DUP were going to hold their noses and vote DUP on this occasion to dispel any myth that unionists could be coerced into bringing Stormont back while the protocol remained in its current state.
I agree with much of what is being said on recent posts, hence why I doubt devolution will come back for a very very long time if ever
Doubt that. Trend seemed to be the Alliance and UUP vote would grow at the expense of the DUP.
I can assure you that if there had been an election there was going to be a significant swing from both TUV and uup to the dup. They were going to be leant votes because of their stance on staying out of Stormont until protocol is sorted. The gov obviously worked that one out.
I hope your right but wouldn’t be so sure - the DUP have been spinning their bile for generations at this stage
Decent sized sections of the Unionist community already telling them they are finished. The hardline nutjobs are gone to TUV and the kids are voting Alliance.
No you weren't,
The Bill will not bother anyone until it is enacted and Sunak ain't gonna start a trade war when the mighty UK is entering a never seen before recession. A deal will be done on the existing Protocol.
DUP and all anti-protocol groups are under the bus ...again.
The dup have been an unmitigated disaster, and would go into Stormont in the morning, except that the unionist community is warning them not to or they are finished
We were told that there wouldn’t even be discussions while the uk continued to progress the bill. Bill ongoing and discussions ongoing
Paragraph 1 admits you keep lying down willingly for the bus.
Paragraph 2 shows you are gearing up to do it all over again.
There is no evidence the Protocol is, or will be, renegotiated. It is the result of the negotiation in the first instance; it's just that one party decided that being in a phenomenally advantageous position, one foot in each trading bloc, wasn't good enough if it meant sacrificing <insert extreme-unionist concern here>. The DUP hold precisely zero power in this scenario.
Donaldson level disingenuity. You were told the Protocol had built in flexibility to fix issues. The Protocol is not being 're-negotiated', it is not going anywhere, and the UK know that. Talks are ongoing.
Yes I would say it is more accurate that they keep jumping under the bus. That being the case and setting the dup aside, every single elected unionist in London, Stormont or council totally oppose the protocol.
we were told by many that it would not be negotiated and sf, alliance etc all called for ‘rigorous implementation’. We have moved that. I doubt you will find anyone now in ni calling for its rigorous implementation. Alliance are now calling for indefinite extensions to grace period - the very party that opposed extentions. So unionists have achieved a lot in last year and will continue same. But I don’t believe we will get all we need therefore the future is shaky
It'll remain accurate while the DUP affect their bulletproof, earnest belief they somehow hold sway over the Tories, believe their promises, or think they can stand with their finger in the dyke indefinitely.
And their favourite bus maker is now owned by a Catholic!
At what stage does it because inaccurate for us to say "thrown under" the bus.
It happens so often that surely it is now "existing prone on the road waiting for the next bus". Its not like they have even gotten up since the last bus. They are at this stage road furniture.
While it's now trite to invoke Carson's most famous(?) quote about the Tories, if the DUP don't brace themselves for another inevitable and sudden inspection of the underside of a bus, they're even bigger idiots than they present themselves in the public domain. I don't believe there'll be any "fudge" from the EU, or the UK; after all, the Protocol IS the fudge and supposed solution to the NI promised; as before it's only political convenience that allowed the DUP and NI to remain relevant in the conversation. Prime Minister Sunak seems ... apathetic at best to the whims of a bunch of ageing Omniphobes. Power flows from Westminister, this is only going to end one way.
The DUP are being sidelined/thrown under the bus again. The world will move on without them again.
Extremely rare I agree with francie, but pretty close here. There is a significant possibility Stormont will never restart.
gov knew the outcome of any election was further wipeout for SDLP & uup. Alliance and sf main ting vote as a minimum and DUP regaining the lost ground of the last election. Dup would simply have had a stronger mandate to stay out of Stormont.
I reckon there is a fudge coming from Uk/eu which will be presented to the people, thereby taking the wind out of the DUP sails.
I think we are looking at increased risk of a return to violence - initially low level.
Watching TG4 covering Down Royal race meeting today at the minute, surprised the DUP havent put a stop to any Irish been spoken in the heart of DUP country.
Great coverage by the way on Terrastrial television of a big race meeting
And barely a working government between any of them.
