Winter 21/22 Eviction Ban (was: And just like that, FFFG lose 298000 votes))

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765468#Comment_119765468

Yeah, I'm not disputing at all that the new CB rules will see house prices increasing. It's a simple feature of pumping in more money into a market with an already scarce supply of houses to be acquired.

But beside your opinions on economic theory, you haven't actually answered the question I posed. If a glut of private landlords all decided 'I've had enough of this, it's too difficult to make money renting out my house, I'm going to sell it' - what impact would that have on house prices, independent of other factors?

Obviously - it would lead to prices falling. Rather than there being one 3-bed semi d for sale in for example, Navan, there might be 5 all of a sudden, competing with each for the best price.

bluedex

@[Deleted User]

No point, you've stated your opinion and won't change it no matter what anyone says - it's how these forums (fora?) behave. Anyway @Wanderer78 has tried to clarify things a bit more in a subsequent post. We should already have seen what you claim will happen when all the other private landlords sold up, but prices kept rising and supply didn't improve.

Just watch what happens and you'll see (or choose not to see).

winstonia

There will be exceptions to the ban, including non-payment of rent, antisocial behaviour or using the property for purposes other than what it is let out for.

IF above is the case then what could someone do to get evicted? IE I'd assume most are for all 3 of the above.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765564#Comment_119765564

My initial comment was in response to the traditional "woe is me" whining you see occasionally from private landlords, when they clearly have options available to them.

You have the nerve to tell me I'm wrong, but not to bother trying to actually give your view of what would happen. So, once again, I'll ask, if a glut of private landlords simultaneously decided to sell their properties and exit the market, what effect would that have on housing prices?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765311#Comment_119765311

There is no particular fundamental right for a owner to reclaim a property for their use at a time of their choosing. This is mediated by legislation and this is an uncontroversial point.

Should someone take a case on that basis, rather crudely, you're setting the (supposed) right of the landlord not to be homeless against the right of the paying tenant (likely tenants plural) not to be homeless. And with that, the SC would be expressly all up in the business of live government day-to-day policy. Which they run a mile from for obvious reasons.

Supposing even the SC was in the mood to consider granting a new unenumerated right (which is gone out of fashion since the 70s) of a landlord to reclaim property in the face of government policy and legislation, one of the primary doctrines used is prudence, justice and charity. Knowing how this doctrine has been applied, the case would almost certainly fall against the landlord.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764754#Comment_119764754

What is exceptional about this winter that can be changed before the ban is meant to expire. They can argue a time limited ban is OK if it serves the common good. But if it is to address a problem that can't be fixed by a time limited ban expires, then they are effectively introducing an open ended ban. Which could easily prove to be unconstitutional.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765914#Comment_119765914

Just like at the moment (outside of part 4) there is no fundamental right for the tenant to enjoy continued use of the rental property when a valid notice has been issued by the landlord, granted the proposed moratorium will change things for a short while. I think the decision on who would gain the right to live in the property if challenged would be less black and white than you indicate, especially if a landlord ends up living in a tent over the winter because they cannot get their property back. There appears to be a will here to allow tenants indefinite use of a rental property if they continue paying rent but that's not sustainable when you consider how much capital landlords have tied up in these properties. I agree that sufficient notice and terms defined by a lease are required to ensure tenants are protected but you can't insist in one thread that rentals be run like a business and in another insist that they be run like a charity. While tenants have needs and rights landlords do too.

Its a pity that evictions are resulting in homelessness at the moment but that's entirely down to failures of the state. There is a public need to have more accommodation available the proposed moratorium is not the solution required and building more units is. The state has shown little interest in building their way out of this problem and hope that regular changes to rental legislation will bring about some stability but the changes so far have had the opposite effect. People should be angry with the state but they have managed to deflect quite well.

I think the relationship been landlords and the state is quite hostile, I'm sure if there was some consultation better solutions could have been reached. The state made a lot of changes to the detriment of landlords and are now trying to force landlords to stay when they are trying to get out.

bluedex

@[Deleted User]

You've just proved my point. Once you see a comment like:' "woe is me" whining' you know it's pointless trying to talk sense.

I'm not a private LL btw, so no vested interest. And to answer your question (despite me saying it's pointless), nothing would happen, no effect on the market, as has been proven numerous times and explained to people of your views numerous times.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766136#Comment_119766136

Well there will be a time limited right granted by legislation. And that's rather the point.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766145#Comment_119766145

For someone bandying about the term naïve earlier; I think it's you who needs to more properly consider how economics work in this context. If you really think thousands of properties landing on the market simultaneously would have no impact on house prices, then that pretty much says it all.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766208#Comment_119766208

Legislation enacted in a hurry that may or may not stand up to scrutiny if challenged.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766457#Comment_119766457

With a prior unchallenged (and wider ranging) eviction ban having already been in place, I don't think the speed of parliamentary progress is an issue nor is there likely to be the most solid challenge to it looming

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766495#Comment_119766495

True, but the expectation with the original ban was that it would be a once off due to to the pandemic and the majority of landlords did not want to host viewings when infection levels were high and little was known about the effects of covid. This eviction ban is being implemented to prevent landlords leaving the market and recouping their investment in the property when its probably at its peak who knows where prices will be in 5 months. I agree that the likely hood of a challenge to the legislation is low as it targets small landlords who probably don't have the funds but if an eviction ban becomes a regular occurrence I'm sure it will irritate somebody enough to challenge it.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766626#Comment_119766626

It has to irritate someone with the standing and the money. There really aren't many of those.

I imagine the only reason rent limits haven't been challenged by the funds who definitely have both is that they don't want their tax situation changes in retaliation, whether the challenge worked or not.

dennis72

Eviction ban is wrong and will be

exploited at an addition cost to rental accommodation and new tenants.

Combined with long notice periods could makes termination process unending in some case.

RTB is deliberately under staffed and inefficient to drag out its

determination orders slowing the process.

No business could operate in a continuously changing rules against it with nothing in return.

Was a ll never been in an rtb dispute but in the last couple of years had to seek legal advice several times its an additional cost to this farcical interference with a private business so I have changed my model.

Not everybody wanting to rent is doing it for their forever home.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765184#Comment_119765184

The problem here though is that nobody would believe at this point if they cut taxes that they wouldnt increase them even more the next time they decided to make a change to the rental sector. They just keep changing it willy nilly every time the media get on to them. Its just not a stable environment to be involved in. There is no way to plan for the long term. Better off out of it altogether , no matter what they might promise.

For us its time to get out. Hopefully our tenant leaves when they said they will (because they dont have to now if they dont feel like it) and we can get it on the market asap.

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769121#Comment_119769121

Good luck with it, yeah a lot of people running for the hills, government only have themselves to blame, it’s the cynicism that gets me, where they never built the houses required because they knew negative equity people couldn’t sell, and eventually when their out of negative equity they’re blocked from selling

bluedex

A lot of good points here. It's funny seeing the clueless comments of the anti-landlord posters about supply and demand, as if they were the sole factors in this mess. Unfortunately I think a lot of people believe that rubbish. It's never a good idea to force suppliers out of a market, or force them to temporarily stay in it, always ends badly for the consumer.

A lot of good points here. It's funny seeing the clueless comments of the poor beleaguered landlords who won't get to evict anyone for a few months. There's no way if they all started selling their properties that that could possibly lead to house prices declining, because...reasons the rest of us couldn't possibly understand. Never mind that the ESRI, the European Commission, a multitude of renowned economists and even the BPFI agree that the primary factor driving up Irish house prices is the lack of supply.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769597#Comment_119769597

But do you understand why rent prices might be going up? And surely wont be going down any time soon?

bluedex

No, he/she obviously doesn't. No point even engaging with people like that, they just want to bitch and moan and expect the government to do everything in life for them. There's a lot of that about.

troyzer

Anyone know where things stand with existing eviction notices?

A close family member wants to sell their second home and issued the required 224 days notice back in May. He gave them an extra few weeks as well so he wouldn't be evicting them before Christmas.

Now he doesn't know what's happening. Does this mean the clock starts again and he'll have to issue a fresh 224 days notice next April? Assuming the ban is discontinued (a big assumption) or is it grandfathered in? I've been reading a lot of conflicting views on this.

Its a double edged sword, the number of landlords that leave the market probably won't provide enough properties to satisfy current demand but it will make an already tight rental market tighter. Future uncertainty about interest rates and job security will have a bigger effect on house prices which will probably have the knock on effect in that people will stay in rentals longer until house prices bottom out a bit. An over supply of rentals is the only thing that will cause prices to drop and current data would indicate that demand is increasing. I've a property returning to the market after two years the original rent was below market rents for the area I increased the rent by 50% and I have had a few offers in excess of the requested rent. Unfortunately the proposed moratorium will mean that I'll wait a little longer to see what exactly it entails. It could also potentially affect other property that should be returning to the rental market in January too.

Fol20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765524#Comment_119765524

LL have been selling in larger quantities over the past few years and we havent seen a decrease in prices - why is this.

I do think you have over simplified the issue a little. I understand you are saying that a greater supply of properties for sale will decrease prices but tbh, the only way this will ever happen is if homes were built on mass and not dribs and drabs of rentals being sold.

The issue with renting will remain the same in your example though. Lets say you have a renter that buys a landlords home. Thats one less renter and one less buyer in your eyes so you would think their is a neutral equilibrium but given the fact that we also have the younger generation along with imigrants wanting to rent, that is one less rental off the market and no one is filling the void. REITs are doing their best on the higher end but they cannot meet the volume of private landlords leaving.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769848#Comment_119769848

The irony of this is high, in a thread set up specifically to bitch and moan about a piece of legislation enacted specifically to restrict evicting people for a limited period of time, during what is anticipated to be an exceptionally bleak winter from an economic perspective.

FWIW, I don't actually think small landlords are the villains in all of this at all. The most significant elements impacting this market are predominantly driven by government incompetence, and a desire to cater to institutional investment funds.

But, have some semblance of self-awareness please. The original post in this thread claimed likened this piece of legislation to communism ffs. The general theme of the poor landlord rightly is going to fall on deaf ears in the current market where an awful lot of people are significantly worse off.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770217#Comment_119770217

Yeah I take the point on rental market dynamics, but Ireland's population growth for 2020 (last year with data available) was 1.2%. Fundamentally, the housing stock doesn't decrease, and for most people it's far more tax effective and capital effective to be able to purchase your home rather than service someone else's mortgage.

As I said above, I'm not anti-small landlord by any means, but I equally don't have huge sympathy for them either.

The Student

I personally think there is a tipping point coming. Small landlords don't have the funds to challenge the constitutionality of the eviction ban. If the IPOA actually had any business sense they would be actively encouraging landlords to join and support the landlords and act as a voice for us.

We need a body to advocate the rights of landlords. We have multiple advocates for the renters be they charities and the State. The State and the wider public have vilified the small landlord (remember the single property landlord, one of which is either in your family or your social circle). We are not your "fat cats" sitting at home living off the rent. We are the same as the majority of people trying to make a living.

It always amuses me when posters and even our politicians (who are supposed to be intelligent people) have this bizarre belief that money grows on trees, everybody should have their "forever house" because they are "entitled to it" and it has to be in a particular location and has to have a BER rating of A or close to it. That rent should be affordable (we are not a self sufficient country who can control all the costs of input), that the property should meet current building and energy regulations but the landlord can't raise the rent to cover the increased cost of meeting those regulations. Then to add insult to injury we have the RTB that is rigged in the tenants favour and there is no political will to change it.

Any person who enters into business does so understanding the risks associated with entering that business and having some (not all) control over the business environment in which they trade in. What we have is an abject failure by the State not only in its housing provision but also in utilising its current stock and the policies as to who should and should not be housed and under what circumstances.

I find it funny that people fail to grasp or agree with the basic laws of economics of supply and demand. In every single free market supply and demand dictates price. Our rental sector is not a free market because of State interference. The State wants to pick and choose those parts of the market to suit its needs.

I don't think this eviction ban is going to end well for those who need the most help ie the tenants.

Fol20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770316#Comment_119770316

I would agree that the housing stock doesnt change but the housing dynamic does given another rental which typically host more adults that owner occupier is now off the rental market.

What about my response to LL selling over the past few years not impacting prices?

I dont think its about having sympathy for them but more so fairness in what is happening. Be it investors where what they have planned for has no fundamentally change or even more so for people that were in negative equity and sucked it up only for this to happen when they can finally get out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770608#Comment_119770608

While a lot have been exiting, it's been following a more orderly path and still it's been relatively small numbers in the grand scheme of things. RTB data extrapolated on notices to quit served because landlords wanted to sell properties estimate the number at only 1,900 rental properties sold in the first half of this year.

This has been in a backdrop where the actual total number of properties for sale in the State has at various times over recent years been at the lowest levels since Daft's records began.

The discussion above was if a vast amount of private landlords, of whom there are still 165,706 as of the end of 2020, decided to exit roughly en masse. If even 5% of those decided to exit roughly simultaneously and you had in excess of 8,200 properties dropped onto the market, it's very hard not to argue house prices would fall as a result.

bluedex

It's very obvious really. The parts of the incremental state interference in the market which are detrimental to private landlords have driven large volumes of those private landlords out of the market. This has led to major problems in the rental market, in terms of supply and affordability.

Has their exit resulted in an easing of the housing crisis? No it hasn't. Anyone saying that a further exodus of private landlords will ease the problems is talking nonsense. I really don't understand how some people can't grasp this.