Winter 21/22 Eviction Ban (was: And just like that, FFFG lose 298000 votes))

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764949#Comment_119764949

the reality is, the only solution to this mess is further state interventions, but virtually opposite to what ffg have been doing, theyre truly heading to the opposition benches for a very long time, and the mess could be so severe, sf may not be able to resolve it!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764949#Comment_119764949

By all means then feel free to sell. It doesn't really worsen the situation at all tbh. If there was a dramatic increase in properties available for sale, then house prices would fall accordingly and a lot of people stuck renting would be able to buy.

Furze99

Are there really 298,000 small landlords in this Republic renting out accommodation? If so, how did we get so screwed up on this idea of owning property and the more the better? A hangover from the so called '800 years of occupation'?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765004#Comment_119765004

...again property markets dont work as simply as this, theres no guarantee that more landlords selling will lead to lower prices, thats simply an over simplification of the problem, new cb rules will lead to further rising prices, as it increases the availability of more money to be used in bidding up prices, and the on going supply issues, all adds up to increasing prices overall....

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765007#Comment_119765007

I don’t know about the amount of landlords but if there are, the reason is the last crash, late 90’s early 2000’s the banks, the government, businesses every part of the system with authority were telling people to buy houses, that renting was for idiots and it was dead money. Banks were giving interest only and 100% mortgages, taxi drivers were buying apartments in sunny beach Bulgaria, crash happened end of 2007-2008, and suddenly all those ‘starter homes that people had bought were in negative equity.

People had a choice, sell the property at a loss or stay and hope prices go up, most of the people who bought were in their 20’s, 30’s life went on they either had kids or met other people (who may also have had a property) and suddenly the starter home they were saddled with wasn’t fit for purpose, but they couldn’t sell it or they’d be in debt.

So what do they do, they rented them out in the hope that some day they’d be back at the price they paid for them, they moved in with their significant other, or in a lot of cases rented out the starter home to cover the mortgage, while they rented a bigger house if they had kids in the intervening years.

The government sat on its hands and didn’t bother with social housing because weren’t there loads of places to rent and the owners of the properties couldn’t sell them on, so the government just gave HAP payments instead.

Rollonto 2021, property prices have risen, finally those people who never really wanted to be landlords can sell their properties and exit negative equity, they’d essentially been providing a housing service for the best part of two decades without being paid because even if the rent was 2 grand a month the government were taking back 52%, what they had left certainly didn’t cover fees, mortgage and all the rest but it was a help towards it.

This gives the lie to people shouting about paying a landlords mortgage and the landlord would have an asset at the end of it, they won’t those mortgages will be doing well if the interest is paid, the principle is still outstanding.

So here we are all those people have decided to sell and exit without being in debt, and what does the government do after those people played ball for over 16 years? They decided to block them selling their houses with an eviction ban because the government didn’t bother with its responsibilities and build the houses it promised, it’s completely and utterly unfair on those people.

Of course there’s way to keep people from selling that is fair and not verging on the unconstitutional, and that’s to cut taxes on rental income if you cut it to 12% no5 only would you have people not selling you’d have more people invest in BTL’s if a small landlor€ could have a profit of 5-600 euro a month after tax they probably wouldn’t sell, it’s not rocket science, they cut corporation tax and boom we have every significant tech and pharmaceutical company using Ireland as its European hq

bluedex

@Wanderer78

Yes probably it is the only solution, but it needs to be clever, innovative and incentivised - the opposite of what has been done in the last 5-10 years.

The most likely person to challenge this moratorium is a landlord that needs to reclaim a property for their own personal use, but again that's dependent on them having an immediate need and the funds to challenge it. It would be interesting to see if the state puts the needs of the tenant ahead of the property owner in that instance. I don't see the moratorium affecting professional landlords unless they intend selling up in the near future.

The government are banking on nobody raising a challenge as the case would probably not have been heard before the end of March but I'm sure as we head towards the end of March the government will enter panic mode again and try to enact further legislation to try and stem the spike in evictions at the end of the moratorium. If you think the government will have the housing crisis sorted in 5 months you are deluded, their goal will be to ride this out until they are booted out off office and then they can use the inability of the next government to solve the crisis to try and get back in.

Should other businesses be worried that the Irish government will start implementing legislation that they classify as being for the greater good. Why stop at rentals why are the government not putting caps on fuel, energy, food, house prices and medical care. If they had put 2% caps on price increases for these basic necessities when they done the same for RPZs we would all have a lot more money in our pockets at the moment. I'm sure if the fuel importers complain we could just bring in legislation making it a requirement to continue suppling fuel whether they want to or not, but unfortunately the government don't really care about the greater good and will not go after those with the means to challenge them or those supporting their political campaigns.

bluedex

@[Deleted User]

Very naive comment.. that's not how it will work at all.

BTW, I don't have a property to sell, thankfully.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765163#Comment_119765163

The laws of supply and demand are fairly well established at this stage.

If a flood of current private landlords decided to sell their properties roughly simultaneously, what do you think would happen to house prices?

It's virtually guaranteed it would lead to property prices falling.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765336#Comment_119765336

By all means feel free to explain how it would work then?

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765373#Comment_119765373

...im sorry to inform you, but they actually arent, and theyre far from being laws, the so called laws of economics have actually never been proven at all, similar to the level of proof carried out by scientific laws, these so called laws have been commandeered by particular economic ideologies, in particular so called free market based ideologies, but have actually no basis in reality. this is in fact one of the main reasons why our property markets are in so much disarray, as our political and financial institutions, central banks etc keep defaulting to this type of thinking and these ideologies, and surprise surprise, keep failing!

supply and demand is a major over simplification of our property issues, one of the main elements omitted from this thinking is the involvement of the money supply, in particular the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, generally, as the credit supply increases, so to do prices, hence why new cb rules will fail spectacularly, i.e. they will help to further increase property prices....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765468#Comment_119765468

Yeah, I'm not disputing at all that the new CB rules will see house prices increasing. It's a simple feature of pumping in more money into a market with an already scarce supply of houses to be acquired.

But beside your opinions on economic theory, you haven't actually answered the question I posed. If a glut of private landlords all decided 'I've had enough of this, it's too difficult to make money renting out my house, I'm going to sell it' - what impact would that have on house prices, independent of other factors?

Obviously - it would lead to prices falling. Rather than there being one 3-bed semi d for sale in for example, Navan, there might be 5 all of a sudden, competing with each for the best price.

bluedex

@[Deleted User]

No point, you've stated your opinion and won't change it no matter what anyone says - it's how these forums (fora?) behave. Anyway @Wanderer78 has tried to clarify things a bit more in a subsequent post. We should already have seen what you claim will happen when all the other private landlords sold up, but prices kept rising and supply didn't improve.

Just watch what happens and you'll see (or choose not to see).

There will be exceptions to the ban, including non-payment of rent, antisocial behaviour or using the property for purposes other than what it is let out for.

IF above is the case then what could someone do to get evicted? IE I'd assume most are for all 3 of the above.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765564#Comment_119765564

My initial comment was in response to the traditional "woe is me" whining you see occasionally from private landlords, when they clearly have options available to them.

You have the nerve to tell me I'm wrong, but not to bother trying to actually give your view of what would happen. So, once again, I'll ask, if a glut of private landlords simultaneously decided to sell their properties and exit the market, what effect would that have on housing prices?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765311#Comment_119765311

There is no particular fundamental right for a owner to reclaim a property for their use at a time of their choosing. This is mediated by legislation and this is an uncontroversial point.

Should someone take a case on that basis, rather crudely, you're setting the (supposed) right of the landlord not to be homeless against the right of the paying tenant (likely tenants plural) not to be homeless. And with that, the SC would be expressly all up in the business of live government day-to-day policy. Which they run a mile from for obvious reasons.

Supposing even the SC was in the mood to consider granting a new unenumerated right (which is gone out of fashion since the 70s) of a landlord to reclaim property in the face of government policy and legislation, one of the primary doctrines used is prudence, justice and charity. Knowing how this doctrine has been applied, the case would almost certainly fall against the landlord.

spaceHopper

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119764754#Comment_119764754

What is exceptional about this winter that can be changed before the ban is meant to expire. They can argue a time limited ban is OK if it serves the common good. But if it is to address a problem that can't be fixed by a time limited ban expires, then they are effectively introducing an open ended ban. Which could easily prove to be unconstitutional.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765914#Comment_119765914

Just like at the moment (outside of part 4) there is no fundamental right for the tenant to enjoy continued use of the rental property when a valid notice has been issued by the landlord, granted the proposed moratorium will change things for a short while. I think the decision on who would gain the right to live in the property if challenged would be less black and white than you indicate, especially if a landlord ends up living in a tent over the winter because they cannot get their property back. There appears to be a will here to allow tenants indefinite use of a rental property if they continue paying rent but that's not sustainable when you consider how much capital landlords have tied up in these properties. I agree that sufficient notice and terms defined by a lease are required to ensure tenants are protected but you can't insist in one thread that rentals be run like a business and in another insist that they be run like a charity. While tenants have needs and rights landlords do too.

Its a pity that evictions are resulting in homelessness at the moment but that's entirely down to failures of the state. There is a public need to have more accommodation available the proposed moratorium is not the solution required and building more units is. The state has shown little interest in building their way out of this problem and hope that regular changes to rental legislation will bring about some stability but the changes so far have had the opposite effect. People should be angry with the state but they have managed to deflect quite well.

I think the relationship been landlords and the state is quite hostile, I'm sure if there was some consultation better solutions could have been reached. The state made a lot of changes to the detriment of landlords and are now trying to force landlords to stay when they are trying to get out.

bluedex

@[Deleted User]

You've just proved my point. Once you see a comment like:' "woe is me" whining' you know it's pointless trying to talk sense.

I'm not a private LL btw, so no vested interest. And to answer your question (despite me saying it's pointless), nothing would happen, no effect on the market, as has been proven numerous times and explained to people of your views numerous times.

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766136#Comment_119766136

Well there will be a time limited right granted by legislation. And that's rather the point.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766145#Comment_119766145

For someone bandying about the term naïve earlier; I think it's you who needs to more properly consider how economics work in this context. If you really think thousands of properties landing on the market simultaneously would have no impact on house prices, then that pretty much says it all.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766208#Comment_119766208

Legislation enacted in a hurry that may or may not stand up to scrutiny if challenged.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766457#Comment_119766457

With a prior unchallenged (and wider ranging) eviction ban having already been in place, I don't think the speed of parliamentary progress is an issue nor is there likely to be the most solid challenge to it looming

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766495#Comment_119766495

True, but the expectation with the original ban was that it would be a once off due to to the pandemic and the majority of landlords did not want to host viewings when infection levels were high and little was known about the effects of covid. This eviction ban is being implemented to prevent landlords leaving the market and recouping their investment in the property when its probably at its peak who knows where prices will be in 5 months. I agree that the likely hood of a challenge to the legislation is low as it targets small landlords who probably don't have the funds but if an eviction ban becomes a regular occurrence I'm sure it will irritate somebody enough to challenge it.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119766626#Comment_119766626

It has to irritate someone with the standing and the money. There really aren't many of those.

I imagine the only reason rent limits haven't been challenged by the funds who definitely have both is that they don't want their tax situation changes in retaliation, whether the challenge worked or not.

dennis72

Eviction ban is wrong and will be

exploited at an addition cost to rental accommodation and new tenants.

Combined with long notice periods could makes termination process unending in some case.

RTB is deliberately under staffed and inefficient to drag out its

determination orders slowing the process.

No business could operate in a continuously changing rules against it with nothing in return.

Was a ll never been in an rtb dispute but in the last couple of years had to seek legal advice several times its an additional cost to this farcical interference with a private business so I have changed my model.

Not everybody wanting to rent is doing it for their forever home.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765184#Comment_119765184

The problem here though is that nobody would believe at this point if they cut taxes that they wouldnt increase them even more the next time they decided to make a change to the rental sector. They just keep changing it willy nilly every time the media get on to them. Its just not a stable environment to be involved in. There is no way to plan for the long term. Better off out of it altogether , no matter what they might promise.

For us its time to get out. Hopefully our tenant leaves when they said they will (because they dont have to now if they dont feel like it) and we can get it on the market asap.

The Spider

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769121#Comment_119769121

Good luck with it, yeah a lot of people running for the hills, government only have themselves to blame, it’s the cynicism that gets me, where they never built the houses required because they knew negative equity people couldn’t sell, and eventually when their out of negative equity they’re blocked from selling

bluedex

A lot of good points here. It's funny seeing the clueless comments of the anti-landlord posters about supply and demand, as if they were the sole factors in this mess. Unfortunately I think a lot of people believe that rubbish. It's never a good idea to force suppliers out of a market, or force them to temporarily stay in it, always ends badly for the consumer.

A lot of good points here. It's funny seeing the clueless comments of the poor beleaguered landlords who won't get to evict anyone for a few months. There's no way if they all started selling their properties that that could possibly lead to house prices declining, because...reasons the rest of us couldn't possibly understand. Never mind that the ESRI, the European Commission, a multitude of renowned economists and even the BPFI agree that the primary factor driving up Irish house prices is the lack of supply.

DownByTheGarden

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769597#Comment_119769597

But do you understand why rent prices might be going up? And surely wont be going down any time soon?

bluedex

No, he/she obviously doesn't. No point even engaging with people like that, they just want to bitch and moan and expect the government to do everything in life for them. There's a lot of that about.

troyzer

Anyone know where things stand with existing eviction notices?

A close family member wants to sell their second home and issued the required 224 days notice back in May. He gave them an extra few weeks as well so he wouldn't be evicting them before Christmas.

Now he doesn't know what's happening. Does this mean the clock starts again and he'll have to issue a fresh 224 days notice next April? Assuming the ban is discontinued (a big assumption) or is it grandfathered in? I've been reading a lot of conflicting views on this.

Its a double edged sword, the number of landlords that leave the market probably won't provide enough properties to satisfy current demand but it will make an already tight rental market tighter. Future uncertainty about interest rates and job security will have a bigger effect on house prices which will probably have the knock on effect in that people will stay in rentals longer until house prices bottom out a bit. An over supply of rentals is the only thing that will cause prices to drop and current data would indicate that demand is increasing. I've a property returning to the market after two years the original rent was below market rents for the area I increased the rent by 50% and I have had a few offers in excess of the requested rent. Unfortunately the proposed moratorium will mean that I'll wait a little longer to see what exactly it entails. It could also potentially affect other property that should be returning to the rental market in January too.

Fol20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119765524#Comment_119765524

LL have been selling in larger quantities over the past few years and we havent seen a decrease in prices - why is this.

I do think you have over simplified the issue a little. I understand you are saying that a greater supply of properties for sale will decrease prices but tbh, the only way this will ever happen is if homes were built on mass and not dribs and drabs of rentals being sold.

The issue with renting will remain the same in your example though. Lets say you have a renter that buys a landlords home. Thats one less renter and one less buyer in your eyes so you would think their is a neutral equilibrium but given the fact that we also have the younger generation along with imigrants wanting to rent, that is one less rental off the market and no one is filling the void. REITs are doing their best on the higher end but they cannot meet the volume of private landlords leaving.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119769848#Comment_119769848

The irony of this is high, in a thread set up specifically to bitch and moan about a piece of legislation enacted specifically to restrict evicting people for a limited period of time, during what is anticipated to be an exceptionally bleak winter from an economic perspective.

FWIW, I don't actually think small landlords are the villains in all of this at all. The most significant elements impacting this market are predominantly driven by government incompetence, and a desire to cater to institutional investment funds.

But, have some semblance of self-awareness please. The original post in this thread claimed likened this piece of legislation to communism ffs. The general theme of the poor landlord rightly is going to fall on deaf ears in the current market where an awful lot of people are significantly worse off.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770217#Comment_119770217

Yeah I take the point on rental market dynamics, but Ireland's population growth for 2020 (last year with data available) was 1.2%. Fundamentally, the housing stock doesn't decrease, and for most people it's far more tax effective and capital effective to be able to purchase your home rather than service someone else's mortgage.

As I said above, I'm not anti-small landlord by any means, but I equally don't have huge sympathy for them either.

The Student

I personally think there is a tipping point coming. Small landlords don't have the funds to challenge the constitutionality of the eviction ban. If the IPOA actually had any business sense they would be actively encouraging landlords to join and support the landlords and act as a voice for us.

We need a body to advocate the rights of landlords. We have multiple advocates for the renters be they charities and the State. The State and the wider public have vilified the small landlord (remember the single property landlord, one of which is either in your family or your social circle). We are not your "fat cats" sitting at home living off the rent. We are the same as the majority of people trying to make a living.

It always amuses me when posters and even our politicians (who are supposed to be intelligent people) have this bizarre belief that money grows on trees, everybody should have their "forever house" because they are "entitled to it" and it has to be in a particular location and has to have a BER rating of A or close to it. That rent should be affordable (we are not a self sufficient country who can control all the costs of input), that the property should meet current building and energy regulations but the landlord can't raise the rent to cover the increased cost of meeting those regulations. Then to add insult to injury we have the RTB that is rigged in the tenants favour and there is no political will to change it.

Any person who enters into business does so understanding the risks associated with entering that business and having some (not all) control over the business environment in which they trade in. What we have is an abject failure by the State not only in its housing provision but also in utilising its current stock and the policies as to who should and should not be housed and under what circumstances.

I find it funny that people fail to grasp or agree with the basic laws of economics of supply and demand. In every single free market supply and demand dictates price. Our rental sector is not a free market because of State interference. The State wants to pick and choose those parts of the market to suit its needs.

I don't think this eviction ban is going to end well for those who need the most help ie the tenants.

Fol20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770316#Comment_119770316

I would agree that the housing stock doesnt change but the housing dynamic does given another rental which typically host more adults that owner occupier is now off the rental market.

What about my response to LL selling over the past few years not impacting prices?

I dont think its about having sympathy for them but more so fairness in what is happening. Be it investors where what they have planned for has no fundamentally change or even more so for people that were in negative equity and sucked it up only for this to happen when they can finally get out.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770608#Comment_119770608

While a lot have been exiting, it's been following a more orderly path and still it's been relatively small numbers in the grand scheme of things. RTB data extrapolated on notices to quit served because landlords wanted to sell properties estimate the number at only 1,900 rental properties sold in the first half of this year.

This has been in a backdrop where the actual total number of properties for sale in the State has at various times over recent years been at the lowest levels since Daft's records began.

The discussion above was if a vast amount of private landlords, of whom there are still 165,706 as of the end of 2020, decided to exit roughly en masse. If even 5% of those decided to exit roughly simultaneously and you had in excess of 8,200 properties dropped onto the market, it's very hard not to argue house prices would fall as a result.

bluedex

It's very obvious really. The parts of the incremental state interference in the market which are detrimental to private landlords have driven large volumes of those private landlords out of the market. This has led to major problems in the rental market, in terms of supply and affordability.

Has their exit resulted in an easing of the housing crisis? No it hasn't. Anyone saying that a further exodus of private landlords will ease the problems is talking nonsense. I really don't understand how some people can't grasp this.

Fol20

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770831#Comment_119770831

Even if it is an orderly exit that is also increasing in momentum, would you not say this will make the housing crisis worse?

I would think most of the people posting here are not saying 165k rental will leave in the next 6 months. Most understand housing moves slower compared to other investments such as stocks but a 2.5pc decrease in rental stock compounded every year for the next 5-10 years will make the whole situation a lot worse. I suspect we have had much more than a 5pc decrease over the past few years yet prices continued to go up.

Fol20

One of the biggest worries ll have is the inability to sell their asset and the fact the government have started to do this is a tipping point where more will sell up if they still can when the ban is lifted.

TenMoreMinutes

Another issue here is that landlords who have properties that are currently vacant or will soon be vacated by tenants will be incredibly reluctant to rent their property out in the face of government interference and much more inclined to sell now or leave vacant for a time rather than take on the risk of a new tenancy during an eviction ban.

CandyButcher

i rang citizen’s information today to find out if this stands to people renting out a room in there home where there was no lease no contract no RTB none of that. but they couldn’t answer me.

Does anyone know 100% if this eviction ban stands to them too ?

LJ12345

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119772387#Comment_119772387

I read in one of the news articles that licensees are included in the eviction ban. I’ll see if I can find it, this may have challenges though and might be overturned. It’s crazy.

edit: link added

https://www.thejournal.ie/winter-eviction-ban-explainer-5896288-Oct2022/

does this read as licenses or student specific licenses?

“The plan itself will also cover licenses/tenancies in student specific accommodation and student tenancies within the general rental market.”

john_this

Hi,

I’d really appreciate somebody’s thoughts situation, please drop me an email if you can help.

I’ve been living abroad for 3 years for work, my wife had my daughter in 2021 and are expecting our second in April 2023. I will be returning to Ireland in June 2023. I’ve been renting our family home since 2019 while away, and the tenants have changed each year with the exception of the current tenants who are a month into their second annual lease. Im really anxious that I will not have anywhere to house my family when Im back home in Ireland next summer? Should I issue my notice now before the 1st of Nov? Does this mean that 10 days would be served now and approx 170 from 1st April? Or how does it work? thanks in advance!!

newmember2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119773380#Comment_119773380

For the previous Covid eviction ban it was a pause on any existing notice periods, and then the notice period continuing after the moratorium ended. Also was the prohibition of issuing notices to quit during the moratorium.

For this current ban, I've actually heard the housing minister say that any notices that finish during the moratorium will now finish at the end of the moratorium - so not a pause as it was in the previous ban. But I have to say they weren't very clear in what they were saying and were more intent getting the message out that non-paying or antisocial tenants would be exceptions to the ban. So looks like there'll be a shitload of evictions come April 1st 2023.

I'd be issuing a notice now if I were you.

john_this

If it’s issued now , my notice is 180 days (lease longer than 6mths) , so would it be 10 from now, then a break until 1st April, and the remaining 170 bringing the termination date to around mid-Sept 2023?

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119770902#Comment_119770902

Landlords were exiting because of high house prices and cashing-in. Leaving because of "regulations" is a lobby wheeze to extract favourable tax treatment from the government over-and-above already favourable treatment.

The exchequer is essentially paying the interest on buy-to-let mortgages for goodness sake. If you can't turn a buck when the government is literally bunging you taxpayer money to wash your face, you're not exactly John D. Rockefeller.

The IPOA (landlord association) are property rights maximalists. They have always aggressively lobbied against any increased tenants rights.

DFB-D

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119773380#Comment_119773380

You will probably need to wait for the particulars when the legislation is available.

If I were you, I would tell the tenants of your plans and say you will give the proper notice, but if they find somewhere in the meantime to take it and not to worry about notice.

September will be crazy for tenants to change properties, so there is a risk they won't find anything, which means they may end up overholding.