A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

SEPT 23 1989

I think everybody really needs to enjoy this summer the best that they can

what’s coming won’t be pretty but things can’t continue like this

the economy is grinding to a halt

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119122682#Comment_119122682

I imagine you are correct. People stop spending, businesses become less busy and don't need as many workers.

Am I right in saying that if GDP doesn't exceed inflation that would mean recession? GDP is the total value of all goods and services sold in the economy. If inflation is 8%, then that means the same economic activity as last year would result in a GDP 8% higher this year?

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119122323#Comment_119122323

Can't raise interest rates i'm afraid. They have printed so much cash and spent it all on propping up bankrupt nations and banks. So if interest rates rise those bankrupt nations can't pay it's debts and the whole ponzi scheme collapses and takes everyone down with it.

If they don't raise interest rates then you get hyperinflation, civil unrest, mass unemployment and governments collapsing.

It just leaves one solution really, print more money and keep the bankrupt nation and banks alive.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119121678#Comment_119121678

We're not going to avoid one. We're far too connected to other countries, and besides, government policies & spending over the last two years has pretty much ensured that it will happen.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119122682#Comment_119122682

But will it be chronic, will it not regulate itself in a short period?

It'll simply be partially deferred and the cycle will continue where people claim recessions are perfectly normal part of our economics, as opposed to dealing with the underlying conditions. The recession will be impactful for a year or two, and then, back to "normal" with another recession building again for a few years later.

Money stopped make money ,EU doesn't have countries to expand ,Russia ,China,Saudi Arabia ,India taking US dollar and euros out of the trade were use own currencies.Russia selling oil gas to Europe for rubbles only the more things will be sold for rubbles only on way.Expensive energy from US gas will close many factories in Europe when at same time cheaper gas and oil from Russia will create cheaper energy in China and India making those countries stronger on European and world markets.For example there is huge bottles shortage in France because glass can't be made without gas which at the moment cost over 1000 when it cost 360 ! Many glass factories closing in Italy.What gonna happen with dollar and EU when economy will start collapsing ? I will not surprise if Italy or France will choose leave EU because it's useless and will turn to friendship with Russia because it will be more profitable.Even today you could see the conflict in EU already were Hungary doesn't support EU 6 th package of sanctions against Russia because not gonna say No to russian oil and Mario Draghi which just yesterday said Italy will never buy gas from Russia for rubbles with smile on its face pay rubbles today.Unfortunately Brussels and London same as Washington forgot that nobody never won against Russia and Henry Kissinger in Davos days ago said clearly Ukraine Must leave territories to Russia won and negotiate about peace.Folks this war against Russia will bring EU to grave when Russia simply will sell own resources to Asia and Africa making Asia and Africa stronger.Russia expecting record growth of wheat this year by today news from Russia .

Finally about "printed money " which created " inflation".My mate in Dublin has 3000 euro salary home.His rent 1400 euros per month.During COVID his company were he work was closed down were he got 350 euros PUP per week or 1400 per month which covered his rent.He used his savings to buy the food and pay the bills using savings o his landlord simply brought 1400 to the bank paying mortgage for property for rent.Name me the place please were you see money left which creating inflation today ? By the biggest part all PUP money been used to support banks one or other way and today inflation has nothing to do with printed money !

asdfg87

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058247155/a-global-recession-is-on-the-horizon

I read a book about 20 years ago "when corporations rule the world" interesting read... it has happened...

There will be no shortage of food in the world.Just USA and EU will not distribute food on markets this time.Once sanctions against Russia will be lifted and Europe will be flooded by agro export from Russia.Mario Draghi prime minister of Italy asked Putin about wheat export to Italy.Putin answer was clear Pay in rubbles lift sankcions off and you will get as much you want.

Situation at the moment Due with EU banking sanctions against banks in Russia money paid to Russia for wheat will be freezen in EU banks.And even if money will arrive to Russia russian ships are banned from entering to Europe ports.Putin says Pay in rubbles to russian bank in Russia and let russian ship carry wheat to Europe port.Thats all to make problem with food in Europe solved.

brickster69

Sounds like the penny is starting to drop 🤣

https://twitter.com/StarboyHK/status/1530420997135863811

A week ago brave Dublin port dockers said No to russian tanker with cheaper diesel and sent him home.After work brave and happy dockers with smiles on them faces was filling them cars with diesel at 2.10 per ltr.That is the real situation at the moment.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119118137#Comment_119118137

India and other Asian countries have built their food production on the use and abuse of Fertilizer that is unthinkable from a European farming context and that would destroy the growing ability of soil in a year or two.

The soil has severe nutrient leaching problems due to the monsoons.

No environmental or cost concerns in Asia.

brickster69

Baby formula ingredients getting hard to find. 🤦‍♂️

https://www.wsj.com/articles/baby-formula-ingredient-supplies-are-limited-by-war-in-ukraine-11653652800?mod=hp_lead_pos7

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125400#Comment_119125400

I said this when they were on about an oil embargo. I said if the EU stopping buying Russian oil and buying it somewhere else doesn't change the actual amount of oil being bought, it just changes who everyone buys their oil from. If the EU stopped buying Russia oil they'd be buying it from somewhere else who's already selling it to others meaning demand is higher meaning prices are higher. Those countries that the EU than outbids, will then just switch to cheaper Russian oil.

Of course I got called a putin apologist and putinbot for this kind of view.

The EU can't outsmart Putin. This just shows it. They want an oil embargo and then couple weeks later say it'll not help. Did they not think this through before opening their mouths?

Unfortunately oil factories in Europe can't use any type of oil .Some of them can use only oil from Russia and if any of them would like use lighter Arabic or heavier from Venezuela they has to go trough renovation process what will cost them millions and will take time which EU doesn't have already.Also some of them has to change logistic way for example Hungary getting oil from Russia trough the pipe line which coming trough Ukraine and there will be hard get oil other way.Actualy Ukraine minister of energy couple days ago said that if Hungary will not support 6 th EU sanctions package and will not ban oil from Russia then pipeline in Ukraine could be "accidentally damaged".So there is plenty No about say no to oil from Russia.

At the moment Russia selling oil at 77 US dollars per barrel to Indian companies what I wouldn't like call profiting at 112 US dollar price at the moment.I forgot the name of big Indian company which producing diesel from that oil and selling at highly profitable price to Europe.But any way russian budget calculated at 40 US dollar per barrel and today budget proficit in Russia over 1 trillion rubbles.

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125778#Comment_119125778

I am enjoying your posts but can you please put a space after your full stops. It's hard to read telegram type text. A few paragraphs might help too.

Bit cynical

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125400#Comment_119125400

The sort of stupidity that only comes from people at the top.

cheezums

These things are cyclical. We are probably due one, the last major one being 15 years ago.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119123393#Comment_119123393

once again, the increase in the money supply did not cause inflation, it has been primarily caused by supply and energy shocks, also baring in mind, most money created over the last few decades, in both the private domain, i.e. credit, and in the pubic domain, i.e. qe, has made its way into asset markets, inflating asset prices such as property, this was the intent of these polices, and it has worked! increasing the public money supply via methods such as pup, has had virtually little or nothing to do with our current inflation issues, as it has been a minor part of the over all money supply!

I would like put your attention on some events happened before and after COVID

2018 statistics in Ireland was showing that 47 per cent of people paid them utility bills using Visa Credit cards.People was taking loan to pay gas and electricity bills.

Same year deflation signs in Eurozone were ECB start putting rates down to negative

2019 Germany economy slowing down significant drop in orders for industry by the end of 2019 Germany was at technical recession edge.

Same year property prices starting falling in Ireland Dublin was showing -0.5 per cent decrease.

Banks in Ireland stopping borrow money to SMEs only 2 of 10 can get loans.

Same 2019 China economy slowing down .In 2021 we have property giant Evergrande collapse which I think been slowed by COVID and would happen in 2020

Due with high activity of "green energy " activists and Greta Tundberg Germany which closed down coal mines and power stations in 2020-2021 due with cold winter experiencing serious electric energy deficit.Due with shortage of power some electric cars charging stations on streets been disconnected from main power supply and cars owners simply found them cars not charged.In 2021 Spring German officials officially promised turn charging stations off if there will be power supply shortage.

2021 September.Due with slow wind at wind farms and pretty hot summer shortage of electric energy in Europe started.Main gas suppliers doesn't have enough gas in underground storages because they was hoping get gas from Nord Stream 2 from Russia which had bring gas prices down significantly.But due with USA pressure and lobbists of USA gas in Europe Nord Stream 2 didn't started and prices due with gas shortage went to the sky ! All started not after 24 of February in 2022 all started Far earlier and Putin has nothing to do with it !

Covid stoped recession which had to start in 2020. But USA and Brussel made things now even worst.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119125830#Comment_119125830

Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder will leave the board of directors of Russian oil giant Rosneft following public pressure.

Rosneft said on Friday that Schroeder and Nord Stream 2 CEO Matthias Warnig informed the company it was “impossible to extend their powers on the board of directors”.

This week Germany parlament votted to take Gerhard Schroeder pension and privileges off him for cooperating with Russian companies

Nobody want to be next that why even understanding the sht she doing Von Der Leyen will keep dancing under USA rap music ! She doesnt want loose power seat and money.

Burti16

I'm a procurement manager and have been working on an major software licence renewal that the contract will be signed with awarded company end of 2023. This software has to be used by every single user who is connecting to company network. Following CFO brief, Project team reduced number of licences from circa 100k which what we are currently paying for to 50k yesterday. I'm not an IT expert but either engineers have found a great way to cut costs or some significant lay offs in horizon next 1.5 years.

bad2thebone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119122938#Comment_119122938

Exactly, I've worked through quite a few recessions. Peaks and troughs. It gets easier when the kid's are finished education and working and earning their own money. I found the last recession hard enough as my lad had a lot of hobbies and pastimes. Then paying for his college fees etc

He's out doing his own thing now and earning more than his old man.

The younger generations hopefully won't struggle as much. I'm nearly 50 now and I'll probably see two more recessions before I retire and the mortgage is nearly paid off. I bought mine at 23.

I'll leave it to my son anyhow, he's my immediate family.

Subzero3

The EU is causing harm to itself. Lets be honest, most people couldn't care about Ukrianinans or Putin. We care about our own bottom line and our families. The hardships we will feel can be avoided if the EU decision makers dont keep shooting themselves in the food.

Geuze

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119122916#Comment_119122916

%change nominal GDP = %change real GDP + %change prices

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119127502#Comment_119127502

I've been reading negative things about the software industry for the last few weeks. Hiring freezes etc.

I graduated into the last recession. Going back to do a postgrad in software this September to get into that industry and I guess I'll graduate into another recession.

A recession in your early 20s and mid-30s is annoying. I've dropped the ball myself for sure but those are critical times in terms of work and then family. A crash in housing prices could work out for me I guess, but that's about it.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119128894#Comment_119128894

...the only problem, if there is a significant recession and drop in house prices, it could potentially could cause catastrophic economic problems. theres clearly something fundamentally failing here, we re experiencing serious economic problems in quick succession, we truly need to go back to the drawing board here, everything we ve tried has effectively failed....

I am carpenter by trade and I spent 5 years on doll due with 2008 recession.I had some temporary agency jobs and was doing some at community employment as well.Sending CV was the same as throwing them to the bin time was really tough.

3 years ago due with first signs of recession I told above I left carpentry train and went into mechanical engineering .The guys in company were I got job was doing overtime trough last recession when I didn't have job.Hope it will be the same this time we are mad busy at the moment.Some of my mates at building sites see slow down so I hope I did right choice.

I speak or understand 5 languages so I reading and listen news from many countries around.Things really getting worst.

jackboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129246#Comment_119129246

Surely as a carpenter you could go out on your own and make an absolute fortune. The likes of carpenters, electricians and plumbers can’t be got and can charge what they like.

I found that average income is more important than couple years high incomes and the rest time on the doll.

I can work on my own and get double pay than I getting now on factory.But I don't want seat 5 years on doll again.

I prefer have some food all the time than plenty but just year or two and nothing after.

As I told before some of my mates on sites see slow down and some of them will lose them jobs soon or some of them at home already.

Sure I do some "after work " on weekends but I wouldn't like back to carpentry at full again .I paid big price playing popular and profitable games I don't want pay it again.