A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

brickster69

Not been announced yet. It seems crazy adding tariffs when they are also giving massive subsidies to EV carmakers themselves. Even VW are warning the politicians it may not be the best idea and could boomerang back at them.

https://www.ft.com/content/7441f808-8302-4344-a0b9-3f52d86e9d90

https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1789009280080687257

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122123378#Comment_122123378

why is it crazy? If Chinese EV makers are benefiting from subsidies, not folow environmental change etc and an artificial exchange rate then all it is doing is levelling the playing field. I’m 100% sure Europe will also be increasing tarries very soon. It’s nothing new, it’s just EV’s this time instead of shoes

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128236#Comment_122128236

Of course it is crazy, because there is no way of winning without shooting oneself in the face.

China is not flooding the market in Europe firstly. More Ev's that are being exported to Europe from Western companies based in China who also get subsidised, so they get hit as well.

Then if China responds likewise, Western based carmakers get hit again in their exports. Or maybe they respond in kind by putting tariffs on heavily subsidised sectors like agriculture.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240508-bmw-says-eu-probe-into-china-ev-subsidies-against-free-trade

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128767#Comment_122128767

china is not flooding the EV market in Europe despite buying uk brands etc because people have an trust issues after being sold cheap knockoff imitations that were an inferior product in the past and ended up with trust issues because of some cheap sub 100 euro product in the past. Only time will tell whether the product is quality or not and then maybe we will see a flooding of the EV market.

As for a trade war is china really in a position economically where they can do this…There domestic economy is that strong that it can substitute any decline in international trade?

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128869#Comment_122128869

Considering BYD were the battery makers that powered everyone's first Nokia I reckon they're probably on top of the range game.

Protectionism against Chinese competition would be insane, especially considering VW had in the past enjoyed profitable monopolies in the Chinese taxi market.

Edit to add, Chinese businesses are alive to Huawei type sanctions which is why it's easier to simply buy brands people don't consider Chinese. 95% of Apple products are made in China, yet nearly every US relative I know thinks Apple products are all made in the US because it's a US brand with a US stock listing etc…

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128902#Comment_122128902

the manufacturing of apple is in china but all the design etc is outside china…. Apple are not a Chinese product regardless of the fact they are manufactured there. That’s like saying ikea is Irish if I assemble furniture in Ireland.

Yes china have been buying brands such as MG and Jaguar and these probably are designed and manufactured in china and would be considered Chinese. That’s a big difference to claiming apple is Chinese.

if china doesn’t want tariffs on EV’s then they probably need to play ball elsewhere like the artificial exchange rate that gives an unfair advantage or making drastic changes to climate action.

And before you make out that it’s the world v china just remember that post brexit the UK are still trying to agree a deal with the USA on tariffs etc…..

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128902#Comment_122128902

Maybe European politicians will say Apple have a monopoly and an unfair advantage because they are made in China and add 100% tariffs to those products also ?

Then we can all pay twice as much as we should do normally.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122130253#Comment_122130253

I said many people assume Apple products are made in the US because it's a US brand.

They don't realise how much their beloved iPhones would cost without China's deep production chains.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122130552#Comment_122130552

china isn’t the only place to manufacture cheaply….There are lots of alternatives that deliver the same quality. The issue is whether these would remain cost effective in the long term as workers demand their share. That’s where china wins hands down because there isn’t any point in demanding because it’s an authoritarian state.

Another thing that needs to be considered is the concentration risk of having all manufacturing in one place…this was very evident during covid with even apple considering alternatives and backup manufacturing in other countries.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122123378#Comment_122123378

That's great to see.

Why do you think it is a bad thing.

fly_agaric

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122128767#Comment_122128767

It is bad for the European car makers that invested in China and trusted the CCP, it is very good for the EU and for the future of its own industry. I mean both your articles are CEOs/executive leadership of car companies (VW, BMW) that made massive (now looking to be losing) bets on China complaining about it. They are scared of what the CCP will do to their companies' Chinese operations in return I think.

e.g. to quote a little bit more from FT article:

Brussels should not raise tariffs on imported Chinese electric cars, and doing so would risk “retaliation” against international brands in the country, the head of the Volkswagen brand has warned."

"“There is always some sort of retaliation,” he told the FT’s Future of the Car Summit.His comments echo concerns raised by Mercedes-Benz boss Ola Källenius, who in March called on Brussels to cut tariffs on Chinese EVs.Carmakers such as Stellantis and Renault, which do not have large businesses in China, have been more vocal about the threat of Chinese electric vehicles. However, the probe has faced a backlash from German carmakers that are reliant on China for a significant portion of their sales and profits.

and the other link:

The chief executive of German luxury carmaker BMW on Wednesday warned the European Union's investigation into Chinese electric car subsidies runs counter to free trade.

"Free trade" - with current state of the world, and what we have witnessed from US and from China over last few years, what a joke, or maybe we (in Europe) are the butt of the joke here?

They want the EU to kick the can down the road on it (tariffs) so cost of the big mistake + bargain they made with the devil does not crystallise during their leadership of the company, that's about the size of it imo.

They don't care whether is better for Europe, its economy, its workforce, its industrial base, its future etc., it is themselves and their company (at least the day-to-day performance while they remain in leadership roles and before they sail off into the sunset!) they care about.

monkeybutter

Least you lads have finally given up on the recession talk

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122131012#Comment_122131012

It achieves nothing at all because Chinese EV makers do not sell any cars in the US. They are planning on opening plants in Mexico and will be selling from there through NAFTA and to South America also no doubt. It will take time like it will in Europe also, but they have a large market now at home and in Asia to go at, so probably concentrate on that until then.

No idea if the US exports cars to China or not or they are set up there already.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122131005#Comment_122131005

They've been talking about moving Apple production elsewhere for years now and they're still stuck at 95% production in China. It's even funnier considering that the production from Vietnam is the same Chinese contractors offshoring, and even funnier the same site also produce Huawei devices under the same roof!

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122131012#Comment_122131012

A better question is what does it have to do with global recessions

He loves the word “boomerang”

Perhaps he can remind us how depending on Russia and China not boomerang back on those who sell out to these 💩 holes

Speaking of boomerangs and his previous post on Orban and China, perhaps it’s good time to remind readers that Hungary has one of the most expensive gas prices in Europe precisely because their government keeps hitching their wagon to authoritarian regimes

https://twitter.com/20gimsack/status/1789193648078205116

Meanwhile the average gdp per person in US is higher than EU and the gap just keeps on growing from a position of both being equal only a decade or so ago, as is unemployment thanks to Biden, Ireland being outlier having hitched our wagon to US wisely enough

But hey selling your country out to China and destroying your homegrown industries such as car manufacturing will totally not “backfire” on Europe, no sir

/s

brickster69

Biden's sanctions on China are symbolic due to the Us not importing much of those goods.

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/biden-slaps-tariffs-on-nonexistent-chinese-ev-imports/

zerosquared

So we gone from “this issue that has nothing to do with global recessions” will “boomerang” back to “nothing to worry about tis just a scratch”

Muche amaze

yagan

On the Biden car tariffs which I believe are aimed at byd's entry level Seagull EV they won't make much difference in the long run as it would have limited appeal to truck loving US buyers. Ford has already given up making sedans in the US.

Suzuki gave up on the US market as their range aimed towards being the largest small car brand in the world.

2smiggy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122131219#Comment_122131219

it has been on the horizon now for 2 years. any minute now ..

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136120#Comment_122136120

…end of the week lads, end of the week!🤞

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136143#Comment_122136143

But I won't tell you which week ;)

PokeHerKing

I think 2030 for another big one.

Few more years of everyone getting nice and comfortable along with unfettered mass migrations to the west pumping every asset class to the moon.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136195#Comment_122136195

..oh that would cost yea!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136199#Comment_122136199

…we re doing enough ourselves to keep that 'recovery going', virtually nothing to do with the scary foreigners at all….

zerosquared

Actually countries like China are about to lose 300 million people (that’s almost population of US) in next decade and their famously xenophobic attitude towards non Han

China has a population of 1425 million yet only has 300,000 refugees (mostly from Vietnam) and only 10,000 foreigners on official permitted visa *

Yes that’s right, now compare the above to Ireland with our 5 million population

So what the hell will happen to Chinese economy losing so many people and with all them ghost cities full of empty housing? And no social and pensions net for the rapidly aging population??

That’s right boys and girls, a mother of all recessions ontop of the worlds largest property bubble and it’s too late for them to go down the Japan path (three lost decades there)

*source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_China

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136004#Comment_122136004

Before thinking of what car to buy they need to figure out charging them first.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/75-Billion-Bipartisan-Investment-Nets-Only-7-EV-Charging-Stations.html

2smiggy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136324#Comment_122136324

would that be considered on, near or far off the horizon ?

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136530#Comment_122136530

Chinese recession? Their housing bubble is already imploding

Will it translate into a global recession? Nope, we’ll unless you one of em countries to tie a noose around their necks and attach it to China

Their demographic bomb is already set and ticking

eightieschewbaccy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136475#Comment_122136475

That's largely due to individual states still working on procurement. There's also 180k chargers in the US already so it's more about expanding coverage. Also worth remembering in the case of Ireland for example, most charging is done at home. So for a lot of people, using a public charger is a pretty uncommon event. Things that are probably key to working out are things like charging for people in apartments or without their own driveway or on street parking. So working on infrastructural approaches amount to a lot of planning more than anything.

Once again though, this has nothing to do with a recession.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/05/congress-ev-chargers-billions-00129996

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136545#Comment_122136545

…so the whole planet then….

zerosquared

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122136562#Comment_122136562

Neh just authoritarian shitholes that sold out to China

Which is why I find it bizarre the talk about boomerangs of tarrifs on China, one would have to be insane to invest in and trade with that smouldering dumpster fire especially if it puts European car manufacturing industry (and others) at risk of destruction