A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Sunny Disposition

I'm not sure things are looking bad for western countries at all.

Western economies came through Covid far more smoothly than expected. Plus the experience and what's happened now in Ukraine, has shown the importance of doing business in stable countries. The outsourcing of the last 30 years is going to be reversed to a greater degree than anyone would have thought possible five years ago. This is really, really positive for the Irish economy, and for the US and Europe.

High fuel prices are of course an issue, but I suspect we're seeing the worst of this already. There may be an uncertain few months ahead, but things are not looking nearly as bad as some people say.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138378#Comment_119138378

....theres some sort of climate change thingamajiggy apparently, maybe its more than the green party causing such decisions, just maybe!

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138421#Comment_119138421

Ah right. So just pay crazy money for other countries to do it which share the same planet.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138342#Comment_119138342

Did your lorry hit the russian embassy gate ?

Don't waste your time for answer.I will not answer to your and similar comments anymore.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138417#Comment_119138417

I cant tell if you are trolling or genuinely delusional.

Western economies are on a cliff edge right now, inflation is skyrocketing month on month to levels not seen in several decades, interest rates need to rise to fight it but when they do certain heavily indebted EU countries will be at serious risk. Ourselves included.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/2022/05/30/up-to-60-of-corporate-tax-take-may-be-temporary-fiscal-council-warns/

Our over reliance on corporate tax receipts will soon leave us with a massive hole in finances. We cannot borrow to fill it as rates are due to go up shortly, so what do we do? Big cutbacks coming to our already abysmal public services.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138433#Comment_119138433

yup, thats more or less where we are, we ve been doing a pretty amazing job of out sourcing our pollution problems, it probably wont work in the long run, but shur at least we have rapidly growing wealth inequality from it!

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138443#Comment_119138443

Yet we still seem to have an unlimited supply of money at Government level at the moment. Sure it be grand.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138463#Comment_119138463

The magic money tree will come to an abrupt and shocking end very soon. First it will be "tightening the belts", and then quickly after the cutting of services

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138463#Comment_119138463

...

Mr. teddywinkles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138463#Comment_119138463

Is that not part of the inflation problem to begin with? Just keep pumping money into the system.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138443#Comment_119138443

once again, current inflationary pressures have little or nothing to do with the money supply, they are primarily related to supply and energy shocks, raising rates will not resolve these, they ll just further compound the problem, by increasing pressures in servicing debts, in both the public and private domains, the most vulnerable being private debts, i.e. you ll actually find most citizens wont give a sh1t about the national debt during this period, as it ll be their own private debts that ll be causing them most if not all of their concerns!

once again, we must seriously get over this inherent fear of rising public debts, debt is simply our money supply, if we had no debts, we d have no money supply, therefore no economic activities, period! the only way out of this predicament is in fact to increase the public money supply, i.e. increasing public debt, but to make sure this money is used correctly, and not the norm of simply inflating the value of pre existing assets such as pre existing properties etc

again, the policy of balancing the budget has completely failed, in order to have a growing economy, we must also have a growing and expanding money supply, i.e. our debts must also grow in tandem, but by balancing our budget, we have forced this requirement out into the private domain, by increasing our private debts, via credit creation, i.e. running our economies primarily on credit. this has in turn caused credit fueled asset bubbles, which of course tend to lead to credit fueled asset busts, i.e. 08. please stop this, it has become too dangerous for us all!

central banks are now stuck in a predicament, they know all of this, they know theyre more than likely stuck in a low rate environment indefinitely, largely due to the accumulation of these debts, in particular private debts, they know raising rates too quickly, too fast, by too much would more than likely trigger a serious financial sector crisis, maybe as serious as 08, if not worse.

and again, the only way out of this, is to become less reliant on credit in running our economies, and more reliant on public debt, via deficit spending, but to make sure its put to good use......

previous austerity measures have completely failed, they have left our most critical sectors, housing and health care etc, in a severe state of collapse, further cuts would just accelerate social and economic collapse, how far do we want to push this! yes our public services are truly abysmal, but you d wonder why, maybe previous cuts have something to do with it!

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138523#Comment_119138523

Yes. Especially when demand outweighs supply. It seems we may see interest rates increase to stop inflation , yet measures brought in by government to increase money in peoples pocket to help with the interest rate increases. It's mad.

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138449#Comment_119138449

you re well capable of stating facts yourself, once again, why have so many confirmed, wind is irelands future, do you think theyre just taking the p1ss or something! yes, we will have to relay on fossil fuels from others, until we can switch it off, it takes time to build networks, in particular new networks such as alternatives! once again, this is not just coming from the greens, but most political parties....

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138540#Comment_119138540

Are you saying that if we doubled our national debt next year, it would be all gravy with a massive boom for Ireland and no repercussions?

I am being facetious but surely there are limits to public borrowing.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138540#Comment_119138540

"once again, current inflationary pressures have little or nothing to do with the money supply"

😂

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138541#Comment_119138541

once again, current inflation has little or nothing to do with the money supply...... as most money created in both the public and private domains, credit in the private, and polices such as qe in the public, have been used to inflate asset prices, i.e. this money has not found its way into the real economy, but effectively stayed within the financial sector, i.e. the money supply has not caused the inflation....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138596#Comment_119138596

I could swear I put you on my ignore list already. Utter drivel from you as always.

Russian oil ban in Europe will create oil shortage in Europe.

Shortage of oil will bring prices in Europe and world up.

The bigger the oil price the more money for Russia which will continue selling oil everywhere except Europe.

Same story with gas wheat and everything else

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138583#Comment_119138583

no, we must slowly increase our deficits, but this must be agreed at an eu level, just as we did during covid, this must be done slowly and gradually, in as controlled manner as possible, but this money must be used intelligently as possible, in creating new assets such as new properties, and new critical infrastructure such as a new energy network etc etc. a significant proportion of this money, if not the majority, would find its way into the private domain, as most societal needs are provided by the private sector, i.e. most of these works is generally done by the private sector

yes there are limits, hence the approach, if we all reducing our borrowing together, i.e. within both the public and private domains, i.e. public and private sector borrowing, our whole economy retracts, and we head into recession, and shur arent they a great laugh!

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138596#Comment_119138596

So you are saying money supply, when goods are so scarce due to Covid etc, wont cause inflation ?

Sweet.Science

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138596#Comment_119138596

Do you not think its fed into the real economy in a roundabout way ?

https://www.reuters.com/business/economists-eye-surging-money-supply-inflation-fears-mount-2021-06-17/

It's clearly driven by money supply, not just supply side issues. This was being flagged over a year ago.

brickster69

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138403#Comment_119138403

With demand set to increase now that China slowly starts to get going again, supply will start to be a problem until OPEC meets again in September.

Certainly possible for the price to go up sharply and quite quickly if a few shocks happen.The article below is from yesterday and behind a paywall but it does make quite a lot of sense. Sell 20% less and charge 20% more.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-should-cut-oil-output-by-30-get-better-price-lukoils-fedun-says-2022-05-30/

Wanderer78

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138703#Comment_119138703

yes, it probably would, but we re clearly in an extremely serious situation regarding our most critical of needs, property, health care, energy etc etc, reducing our money supply, will more than likely significantly worsen these situations, potentially leading to serious societal uprisings, conflicts etc etc.

again, this new money would need to be very directed, with as many protections in place to limit negative outcomes such as further inflation, strict conditions would need to be included with private sector beneficiaries, i.e. private sector businesses, such as no excess profits. none of this would be easy, but if we dont try, we could all end up in serious trouble very very quickly....

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138710#Comment_119138710

yes and no, largely no, we re still believing in this thinking of trickle down, our most critical institutions are also stuck in this thinking, this is largely untrue, and the longer we play this game in thinking so, the more untrue its becoming, hence our rapidly growing wealth inequality. most of this money has being used to further inflate asset prices, which is now stuck in a positive feedback loop, leading to the further concentration of wealth, while shafting those that dont own assets at all, i.e. primarily younger generations. yes this means, those that own assets are greatly benefitting, as the value of these assets have generally been rising, due to these activities , but this is coming at a cost, shafting younger generations, i.e. asset owners kids, grandkids, nieces and nephews etc etc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138732#Comment_119138732

yes, mainstream economics school of thought, also known as neoclassical economics has completely disconnected itself from reality, it simply does not have the ability be able to understand economics at a macro level, it still has the refusal to accept the importance of our overall money supply, in particular the private sector money supply, i.e. the credit supply, and its inherent dangers, i.e. its ability to cause credit fueled bubbles, i.e. 08! therefore it tends to default in its thinking regards inflation, i.e. the public money supply, and its reaction, raise rates, as its been causing the inflation, when in fact its largely due to supply and energy shocks. neoclassical is the predominate school of thought, and it continually fails, at nearly every level, this has been noted by well respected commentators and institutions for decades now, yet we still follow this school of though. how far do we push this, before we have complete societal and economic collapse!

Pussyhands

Cheers Ursula 👍️ Only 8 dollars a barrel off the peak.

Next year with the price of food etc. going to rise is going to be painful. They just can't help but ruin the EU economy.

Sunny Disposition

I think people here are very excitable when it comes to the economy, it's not surprising when Ireland has had such a boom bust history over the last 30 years. But whats coming isn't comparable to what we've had in the 80s and post 2008. Sure, the oil price issue is going to cause a very hot global economy to slow down, but not to come to a complete halt, as has happened in Ireland from time to time. Plus the Irish economy is in quite a good place to deal with it, and in the longer term we are definitely going to benefit from companies prioritising stability to a greater extent.

It's a somewhat discredited phrase, but the fundamentals are sound!!!

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138908#Comment_119138908

To be honest I think you are getting a bit hysterical in recent posts.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138925#Comment_119138925

There's definitely a disaster porn type leaning on boards. I guess it's similar to bad news sells type thinking. But the fundamentals in Ireland and a lot of western economies are far from sound.

Rents are sky high. Mass immigration is being used to prop up the cheap labour market that western economies are increasingly built on.

I was completely unaffected by 08, combination of timing/age and so where half my social circle. The other half happily migrated to Australia as they were all tradesmen.

So the disaster side of things tends to just be all about perspective. The next couple of years will be tough on some and not on others. As has always been the case.

I believe the average person is absolutely clueless when it comes to economics. It's truly a subject where a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

Case in point: this thread.

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119138925#Comment_119138925

I don't think you know what you're talking about.

The fundamentals are sound? Our economy is built on multinationals. Our fundamentals are dependent on America and the rest of the world.