If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on [email protected] for help. Thanks :)

A global recession is on the horizon

  • 24-05-2022 10:47am
    Registered Users Posts: 702 ✭✭✭ Relax brah

    If you've been paying any attention, you'll know that COVID played havoc with the world economy and we're about to see even worse as a result of the Ukraine war and the Chinese Zero COVID policy.

    Russia is one of the world's top exporters of several utterly crucial things: oil, natural gas, wheat, cooking oil, fertilizer, pesticides/herbicides, copper, platinum group metals, timber, and iron ore are just a few of the headlines. Russia will be exporting severely reduced amounts of all of those things this year. Ukraine is the world's 5th largest exporter of wheat and a major exporter of cooking oil and fertilizer.

    The world is going to experience major energy and food shortages by the end of 2022, shortages the likes of which we haven't seen in several decades. There will be famine in poorer countries and much heightened food prices in rich countries. Agricultural output the world over will also decrease, because many countries, Brazil sticks out as a major one here (the world's #2 exporter of food), since they're extremely reliant on outside inputs to keep the food growing. Their farmland, while there is a lot of it, sucks and they need loads of fertilizer/pesticide/herbicide (among other things, like compounds to adjust the pH of their farmland) that they won't have enough of for a while.

    Energy-wise, the world is going to see $100+/barrel prices (up from around $70 for most of the 2010s) for the foreseeable future. When you remember that the price of energy affects the price and amount produced of every other good and service you'll see why that's important.

    On top of that, China has locked down several of the world's most productive cities. It's exports are already way down and probably won't get back to normal....ever. They're having loads of other problems (housing market has been tanking for almost a year now, household debt is higher than it's ever been, equity markets are less stable than they've ever been, unemployment is at an all time high, etc.) that will probably depress their economy for...again probably ever.

    Depending on where you live, things are going to get pretty rough by the end of this year.

    What are your thoughts?



    Post edited by Beasty on



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,281 ✭✭✭✭ Calahonda52

    Dont forget the inflation wage hikes job layoff cycle.

    This winter will be very rough for a large swathe of the population

  • Registered Users Posts: 702 ✭✭✭ Relax brah

    Completely agree that it’s needed.

    This sort of explains it , But from an Economist's Pov it's obviously a lot more complicated than just that

  • Advertisement
  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 196 ✭✭ DaBluBoi

    Last straw would be if China invades Taiwan now…

    If that happens, we’re basically f***ed

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,347 ✭✭✭ victor8600

    Sure, it's just business as usual. Haven't we had a dot-com crash in 2001? And a financial crash in 2008? The solution for any crisis is to become very rich and to rip the benefits of a good crisis at the expense of the huddled masses:

    Ten richest men double their fortunes in pandemic while incomes of 99 percent of humanity fall

  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,958 ✭✭✭ SuperBowserWorld

    Some good music in the early eighties and we had 40 years to something about climate and environmental damage. So it wasn't all bad. 😆

  • Registered Users Posts: 36,558 ✭✭✭✭ Boggles

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,805 ✭✭✭✭ Geuze

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,958 ✭✭✭ SuperBowserWorld

    Yep, the ozone problem was tacked nicely, but it's solution did not involve changing the energy source, economy and infrastructure, mindset, politics ..on the planet at runtime as climate change mitigation requires.

    But, it does show what's possible and is a huge success story for science.

    Anyway, this thread is about recession, not existential issues.

  • Registered Users Posts: 26,994 ✭✭✭✭ Wanderer78

    again, yes previous generations did indeed have a very difficult time, yes the 80's was extremely tough, but now its virtually impossible for many to get access to their most critical needs, and this is growing rapidly, whereby in the 80's, it was just extremely difficult for most. yes we now have far greater access to far better quality goods and services, but, as mentioned above......

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,805 ✭✭✭✭ Geuze

    See data from the SILC.

  • Advertisement