A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

freemickey · 29-05-2022 11:01am

A false economy.

"An apparent financial saving that in fact leads to greater expenditure."

That's more or less what we have created since the last recession.

The country's books were ridiculously imbalanced after the last recession thanks to housing. So in order to satisfy the creditors they put all emphasis on rebuilding housing prices.

The easiest way to supercharge housing prices was to increase the population through artificial migration. Increase scarcity, increase price. In turn, foreign investors perked up at ever increasing prices and took everything handed out on a plate by the government's. Multinationals jumped in with their imported labour forces and own price disparities, happy to take tax avoidance.

A pyramid scheme was enacted.

It has been so successful that it has run away on them, out of control.

A false economy was created. Where has all the money gone? Where is all the shiny new infrastructure? Where are all the improvements? Where is the vaunted MNC tax gone? A half of a hospital, that's the most expensive in the world?

Some crazy number of people receive housing subsidies, something like 6 or 7 of every ten. That's where the money is going, maintaining housing. Feeding the beast.

When this goes bang, we are going to be in dire straits. There is no money put aside, no necessary infrastructure, nowhere for people to go and some completely unreliable methods of making money likely to disappear.

The population has boomed but the country has not. A dangerous society incoming, and the last decade was the supposed good times? Crazy.

https://ibb.co/Z8pr78Q

Similar, but instead of shareholders it should be about house prices in Ireland.

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119128894#Comment_119128894

Are you not the guy with some app you made and made good money from selling it to companies? You're NOT in the software industry now?

I think it must be said that even when there's a recession, there's still many companies that do well. Many companies that do just ok and of course many companies that do badly. There's still loooooads of people in good jobs. Good talent will always be ok. I'd be fairly fcuked I think if I got laid off.

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 12:33pm

The economy is completely fcuked right now, a recession will probably end up being better for people. People always think of 2008 but that was exceptionally bad, the global banking system was on verge of collapse.

People can say a recession means job losses and that's bad but really, how great is having a decent job and:

Wanting to fix your car but impossible to get a mechanic. And when you get one they charge an arm and a leg.
Wanting to buy a new car but wait a year for it.
Wanting to buy a second hand car but, prices are insane and cars have become appreciating assets
Wanting to go out for a meal and prices are extortionate and some places adding a gratuity fee as standard.
Wanting to go to a concert in Dublin and prices are 15/20 euro higher than they were pre Covid.
Wanting to stay in a hotel and costing 200 euro for a B&B or **** hotel.
Wanting to buy a house but prices keep going up 10%+ a year

And I haven't even mentioned energy or fuel prices.

I know a fella who's been waiting over 2 years for a new electric bike and it's still not arrived.

29-05-2022 12:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129774#Comment_119129774

Yes, I'm that guy. But it totally failed at the start of Covid when everyone moved to Zoom and Teams.

Anyways, I actually want to study again for a year or two, and I also need qualifications for visa reasons. Can't be deemed an "expert" without them.

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 12:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129847#Comment_119129847

Aw that's bad luck. Sorry to hear that.

brickster69 · 29-05-2022 12:47pm

I think recession is the last of the world's concerns in the immediate term

43 million people facing famine today as only 8 weeks of wheat supply is left in the world. Could well be looking at an influx of millions of refugees within 3 months.

https://www.oslint.org/community/index.php?threads/world-only-has-8-week-supply-of-wheat-left-expert-tells-un.540/

freemickey · 29-05-2022 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129824#Comment_119129824

Sounds like the end of a pyramid scheme to me.

Fundamentally flawed systems break. It's breaking.

freemickey · 29-05-2022 1:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129879#Comment_119129879

I saw that before. While it's directly linked with the ukrainian war, there's something much bigger behind it all.

There was a mysterious enough statement from the housing Minister only a few weeks ago, indicating that there is already a huge influx in migration. But we won't know the numbers of this year until next year. Very useful.

It isn't without irony that migration was invited to pump house prices, and now it's migration that is collapsing affordability. A real durrrr moment.

You see it often mentioned that some great mass migration will happen due to climate change in the future. Well, guess what, mass migration has already been happening under your noses. Feels good, doesn't it? Hmmm delicious unaffordability, ahhh straining Infrastucture, ooooh social immobility. Love it.

Cat is out of the bag.

Yurt2 · 29-05-2022 1:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119129973#Comment_119129973

The days of operating in denial that high levels of come-one-come-all non-EEA immigration has no effect on quality of life really need to end.

Ireland needs immigration, but only the type of immigration that suits us. Since the pandemic travel restrictions ended, I've been taken-aback by the very visible uptick in non-EEA immigration into Ireland. I don't really care if it's impolite to say so, but it appears that the "English language schools" are running an immigration three-card trick from South American countries in particular.

Great people, great outlook on life etc etc, but they are landing in an Ireland with massive capacity constraints, and are overwhelmingly doing insecure low paid work in narrow sectors that are fuelled and addicted to low-wage work. They all need somewhere to live, and are (for now) happy to live 10 to a house in bunk-beds.

freemickey · 29-05-2022 1:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119130043#Comment_119130043

I agree with a large chunk of what you're saying. For instance, the international schools are pipelines of essentially illegal immigration.

Everyone knows it, including government. But up until now, all those extra people were simply pumping accommodation prices, which is what they wanted. So nothing was done.

Where I disagree is on the EU/non EU distinction. We don't need immigration, full stop. We don't need anybody else. The country capacity is bursting at the seams.

We need people to leave.

Yurt2 · 29-05-2022 1:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119130072#Comment_119130072

We're fully signed up members of the EU. Just as a Frenchman has the right to live in Ireland no questions asked and access the labour market, so too do you in France. That's the compact, and it's a cornerstone of the EU.

The difference being, EU nationals generally don't move to Ireland on a wing and a prayer, generally will be taking up employment in high value-add sectors, and are far less likely to be so desperate to accept employment and living conditions that those in the English-languge-school operations are willing to.

freemickey · 29-05-2022 1:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119130092#Comment_119130092

I know what exactly what you mean.

However, even if non-eu migration was halted into Ireland, non-eu migration into other parts of the EU are full swing, and then they can just move here anyway.

It's all got to change, the whole shebang. Directives, policies, EU, Irish...all of it.

We patently do not need anymore people. We need less people. We need to approach sustainability and work with what he have, not kick it further down the road under migration until we're left dealing with the problems of 6 million people, until then it's 8 million people. A pyramid scheme.

It's got to all stop.

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 2:18pm

You can see why Brexit happened.

EU (Germany/France) is behind all of it.

Ireland is pro EU because we've benefitted the most. Our economy went from shite to loads of jobs and money. Take away all the multinationals and their jobs and what have we? Some roads? Some grants? Freedom of movement? No customs?

29-05-2022 2:23pm

It's was all right when educated and qualified labor was coming from Eastern Europe.More or less similar culture and religion

But unfortunately now they gone or some left .Most of immigrants now coming from North Africa or South America with low level or no education completely different culture and religion.This is the problem at the moment.

Government try grab the last ones from Eastern Europe from Ukraine but unfortunately there is huge competition on qualified jobs market in Europe and Ireland has more disatvatages than advantages.Might be Ireland try bring more refugees from Ukraine hoping get money from Brussels for building houses for them and give kick building industry who know ?

But fact is the more imigrants comming from Africa and South America the bigger the shortage of workers on factories in Ireland.

So who leaving and who comming ?

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 3:03pm

Interesting read.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0527/1301629-will-other-tech-firms-follow-paypal-and-cut-irish-jobs/

While PayPal’s difficulties have been severe, its travails are not unique across the tech sector with its story echoed by many others to varying degrees.

The tech laden Nasdaq 100 index is down around a quarter year to date, reflecting a souring sentiment around tech stocks that are now widely seen to have been overvalued when they hit their market peak late last year.

The rout of the past few months has even prompted some analysts to suggest we could be facing a tech driven stock market crash, similar to the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the late 1990s and early noughties.

"US tech stocks are massively overvalued," said Peter Brown from Baggot Investment Partners.

"What you are looking at here is a 12-year rally in buying anything that doesn’t need to make money. It is just momentum and growth strategies and people pouring into those stocks and it has been a very successful strategy for years, and despite Tesla not making money, despite Amazon not making money all that didn’t matter."

"You just buy them because they keep going up. That ended in December. And what we have now is a massive rotation away from that strategy into value. So people are saying this tech thing is over."

"And it is not just over for a bit. It is over over. And nobody wants this stuff anymore."

Tech stocks are also being viewed as being particularly vulnerable to interest rate increases being deployed by central banks to grapple with soaring inflation.

Elsewhere in the US and Europe, some tech companies have also begun to shave their global workforces, with recent redundancies at firms such as Robinhood, Hopin, Klarna, Peloton, Netflix and Fast Checkout, which closed down.

freemickey · 29-05-2022 3:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119130555#Comment_119130555

A lot, maybe even most, of these tech companies are pure emperor's new clothes territory.

Lose money every year for a decade, yet be valued higher and higher each year. Yeah, sound.

People want their money back, double time, no more promises of growth and then profit in 100 years.

Now that the charlatans are being forced into actually producing results, the prices are going out of control. Predictable.

For example, the likes of justeat, Uber, doordash. All they are are middlemen that forced themselves in-between customers and business and took a large slice of money (and still lose money every year). Now that the penny has dropped, more and more places are seeing double and even triple the price of the food they buy through these insipid companies.

Buy a meal for 12 euro, add delivery costs, middlemen costs, fantasy tax, Donald duck vat, mandatory tips, this and that...it gets to your door for 25 quid. People are just walking away.

Same for the likes of Uber, trying to squeeze in between customers and taxis. Now that they have to produce results, I'm seeing the likes of 100 dollars for an airport trio with Uber, versus 40 for a taxi. Goodnight.

And even the "serious" tech companies are essentially based on advertising. That's it. Advertising. Selling your private information to advertisers. And that's worth a 400000 trillion euro valuation? No, it ain't.

Shaister companies, just about all of them.

29-05-2022 4:36pm

The first at all people never learn and has very short memory .The next thing they believe media as donkey to carrot which they follow but can't reach.

Look to people around and try speak with them about recession is comming ! The all will tell you that you are stupid and them friends doing well.The first of arguments will be look how many new cars on streets ( no matter all with loan behind ) and look how many people in restaurants ( no matter they has only cheap sallads on tables).

Most now has electronic waults with investment to bitcoin ( which lost half of value which never had )

Speak with people about property prices ! They all like zombie or religious fanatics will keep singing mantras about supply and demand ( they all experts on that ) they all will singing about inflation ( no matter they didn't get pay rise and spent half of them savings due with pandemic )

Look at media ! Blue sky on horizont and only bright future ! Economy in perfect nic falling unemployment and one or two companies planing create hundreds new jobs ( no matter in next 2-5 years ) at same time staying quite about companies already sending hundreds people home.Media very noisy telling about New jobs but very quiet about lost jobs

I liked PayPal answer to media about why they do people redundant It's nothing to do with economic situation This only Structural changes

The crash in 1929 happened because even dogs could make investment in shares.Same as today many people investing to things which they has no clue about.Most of them making decisions to invest finding Google "suggestions" in them phones.

Same stories and hopes of sheaps which brought them last money hoping don't work and stay rich untill end of life.Now they will have pay price to Wolf's of Walstreet.

29-05-2022 6:31pm

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/clearco-cuts-roles-in-ireland-weeks-after-125-new-jobs-announced-41695560.html

International e-commerce funding firm Clearco, an IDA client company which made a high profile announcement in March for plans to hire 125 employees in Ireland, has cut jobs here in recent weeks due to mounting global economic challenges.

Wanderer78 · 29-05-2022 6:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119131641#Comment_119131641

yea you can see the start of it now, think this winter is gonna be scary enough!

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 6:53pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119131662#Comment_119131662

Every chance that Apple investment in Cork doesn't happen at all.

29-05-2022 6:54pm

I don't think everything will fall so quickly.There is still huge educated and skilled work force shortage so people will simply cross the street or will get job across the road.Some companies even offering rewards to staff if somebody will bring right person what they never did before.I think everything will start by the start of next year the earliest.

Wanderer78 · 29-05-2022 6:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119131737#Comment_119131737

its possible of course, but who knows, we still badly need fdi and may always, but we need to radically change how we do it

29-05-2022 7:45pm

Europe will not survive without russian gas this winter and there is no so much gas in the world to replace it .Next Europe doesn't have infrastructure to take gas from USA and there is no so much gas tankers to cover Asia and Europe demand.

Russia show perfect progress and USA and London analysts made plenty mistakes.People didn't came on streets in Russia the inflation under control and Russian ruble at the moment one of the strongest currencies in the world.

Russian forces move forward strongly at Ukraine and there is no hope Kiev will win.

USA want see results after ten's of billions thrown away in Ukraine .USA doesn't dealing with lusers and there is some unhappy voices singing from Washington already.To cover charges USA could take money from Ukrainian oligarhs (started already)

So here I see the some future.Europe will have stand on knees and begging for forgiveness from Putin.Because gas storages are empty and nobody would like buy gas at existing price which can be 5 times higher at winter time.Putin know that and keep door open.

Congress elections this year November in USA.I don't think Baiden will need long war on Ukraine plus markets fall in USA.At least this year USA Central and some other "institutions" will keep financial stability in USA as much as possible.Democrats doesn't have much chances to win with today petrol prices in USA but they will try.

Apple doing some movements to leave China so I hope jobs in Cork should be safe.

Famon or shortage of food.1 year before war started UK was taking wheat and corn in huge quantities from Uraine.They knew about war gonna start there.Russia has enough wheat and will get more from Ukraine.At the moment they speak about 25-30 per cent less wheat from Ukraine due with war.

If Germany will not start send heavy " Leopard" tanks to Ukraine and Putin will not destroy them once they cross Germany Poland border or Poland will not send "peace keepers" to Ukraine trying take part of Western Ukraine "home" I think we will have safe enough 2022.But start of 2023 could be very tough.

Pussyhands · 29-05-2022 7:56pm

All the big companies are looking at costs now. Layoffs will be the last route they take.

The first is hiring freezes or slowing. Then they'll look at things like organisational restructuring, technology implementation to increase efficiency, new suppliers to provide services for better price, getting rid of employee benefits for example stopping fancy sandwiches being delivered every lunch time instead of having pre packed ones available.

Summitatem · 29-05-2022 8:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119131078#Comment_119131078

Paypal is a bit of a reaction to the new today and a required structural change. Plenty folk there who thought they were key being fooked out...when redundancies aren't voluntary you can rest assured it's a two birds with one stone endeavour.