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Softening house market?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones

    You are right. All of these red hot housing markets have the same thing in common. Supply supply supply. Or lack of.

  • Registered Users Posts: 119 ✭✭byrne249

    Sure isn't the great predictor of the Great Recession Michael Burry himself warning about hyperinflation. You should be aware of all the risks. Still waiting on the source of the hyper correlation between interest rates and house prices. Or does it not exist?

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163

    Hi awaiting email confirmation.

    Just jumping in hoping you'll stop your needling. You could start here.

    Assessing the role of income and interest rates in determining house prices

    Kieran McQuinn, Gerard O'Reilly

    Economic modelling 25 (3), 377-390, 2008

    there's a thing called Google that might help you with further studies.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt

    it’s interesting that the study you mention looks at income and interest rates because both are rising and have opposite impacts on property.

    The link between inflation and house prices is also well documented in various studies for example

  • Registered Users Posts: 140 ✭✭The Real President Trump

    Yeah and he was also the dude who came up with the bank guarantee, he just churns out stories all the time and occasionally one of em seems like more than a coincidence

    He's also been talking down the country since 1997, the real telltale is he never points to what is good or will become successful

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,579 ✭✭✭StevenToast

    Just to update the thread....we have our house up a couple of weeks, generated alot of interest/viewings (at a bad time of year i thought)....received 2 bids under asking price from different individuals....a third separate bidder has now popped up and bid 5k over asking....we will accept this if the others drop out.....

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123

    Well put it like this any domestic company trying to survive the current energy and cost of living increases will hardly be able to afford a pay rise for their employees. I mean I know locally of one restaurant that closed this month (The month of xmas where businesses such as restaurants should be making a killing) it closed due to an 8k bill for electricity that it could not afford to pay. The public sector got theirs (sure with the unions on one side and gov on the other it was never going to be much of a fight from the gov to give in to demands due to their own wallet seeing a nice wad of cash coming into it) and with tech as you point out which was our bastion of high fliers (I am in tech and have got zero pay rise this year same with the majority of lads I went to college with who work in the same field and like myself they would of got wage increases annually up until 2022) with wage increases over last 2 decades is now on its knees. The bankers will get their rises with the lifting of the pay restrictions, but the majority of private sector will not be getting them as companies are on their knees with other high costs. I honestly think your going to see a real drop in spending from January onwards. People will be cutting from the small items to the big ones and will no longer be getting that 4 Euro Cappuccino or the 7 Euro Brekkie role and will be putting that 80k Extension well on the back burner or the buying that new car. There has been an increase in buy now pay later (which with higher interest rates will bring its own issues down the line) and with other indicators like the Aldi and Lidl garnering more and more market share would suggest that people are watching the pennies. It feels like the long breath before the plunge.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,168 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio

    First Home Scheme limits will be increased throughout the country to put more money into people's pockets and keep houses prices high.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123

    Congrats Steven, I hope for your sake they are a cash buyer if I was you I would make sure to put a time limit on this as if this goes a few months into the new year you may see prices starting to drop. Keep us posted on how the sale goes.

  • Registered Users Posts: 797 ✭✭✭spuddy

    Back in the day there was an excess of labour - today we have a shortage. Also the state has a pretty poor track record delivering anything efficiently, just look at the costs of the Children's Hospital.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,631 ✭✭✭✭AdamD

    If you listened to this thread, or website in general you'd be led to believe that nobody has had a wage increase in a decade. Wage inflation will absolutely be a factor in house prices next year, whether they offset the impact of interest rates is anyone's guess of course. But when the stats come in I've no doubt they'll show that wages have risen quite significantly in the last 12 months

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123

    Only in the protected sectors like the public sector and banks. How anyone thinks the vast majority of the private sector can afford pay rises on top of other expenses is a nonsense. Your looking at a decade before the majority of workers have caught up.

  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900 Japan is raising rates. Unprecedented.

    Anyone who doesnt know the knock on effects this is going to have, educate yourself. Wild times ahead.

    Property going to plummet.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,168 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio

    Some sectors, like tech, pharma, engineering have had pay increases over COVID.

    High demand in these industries.

  • Registered Users Posts: 29,415 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78

    yea this is gonna get very hairy, 23 looking well dodgy.....

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135

    Some change in strategy by Japan, crazy stuff really. There is just way too many known and unknown scenarios that a on a knife edge that could cause a black swan event that may trigger another GFC and Liquidity crisis. Credit Suisse, the energy derivative markets, war in Ukraine, prolonged inflation above CBs target and a stock market crash among a few. Way to much uncertainty, the global stock markets haven't even priced in for a recession yet, they are banking a black swan event that would cause a fed pivot, but they are not considering how destructive that event may be.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt

    Protected sectors my arse…tech rode a wave and has already had its wages increases. The same as people didn’t feel bad for trades men that were milking it when building slowed down or the financial sector following the ‘08 crash or HR and recruitment that grew exponentially during Covid etc and got pay increases and bonuses when others didn’t and at the first sign of a slowdown there the first cost to cut. IT crying now because they aren’t on the boat is a joke and maybe they have a bit of a feeling what non IT staff felt while supposedly masters of the universe got paid stupid money and outbid everyone else.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123

    Public sector in this country has always been cushioned. You only have to look at the last recession 400k jobs lost in the private sector and in the public sector people where asked to volunteer to go and got a nice golden handshake to see them out the door. If that aint protected I dont know what is.

  • Registered Users Posts: 29,415 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78

    yea its very worrying stuff, theres a strong potential for all of this to simply flop over, and abruptly to.... you can see cb's havent a clue whats going on, now thats scary!

    its clearly obvious, many newer public sector recruits are in a very precarious situation, with far less pay, and poor conditions to many older public sector workers, theres clearly a strong divide happening there to...

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,527 ✭✭✭kaymin

    Denmark’s Housing Market in Steepest Decline Since 2011

    • Buyers are negotiating bigger price reductions than earlier
    • Nykredit estimates Danish house prices to drop 10% from peak

    ByChristian Wienberg+Follow

    December 20, 2022 at 10:39 AM GMT

    House prices in Denmark are falling at the fastest pace since 2011 as higher borrowing costs push buyers to negotiate increasingly bigger discounts to asking prices.

    Denmark’s challenges echo those of neighboring Sweden, where the market is slumping at the fastest pace since the 1990s. While the Danish housing market so far has fared better, rapidly rising interest rates are putting pressure on prices after a long period of sub-zero rates.

    Danish House Prices Fall Most in 11 Years

    Sources: Finans Danmark, Bloomberg

    Note: price data for detached and terraced houses

    According to latest data, house prices dropped 2.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months, Finans Danmark said on Tuesday. That’s the biggest drop in 11 years.

    Last quarter, houses sold on average at prices 7.3% lower than they had been listed at, according to the country’s biggest industry group for banks and mortgage lenders. That compares with a price reduction of 3.6% a year earlier. 

    “The market is characterized by significantly fewer trades and rising price reductions,” Mira Lie Nielsen, a chief analyst at Nykredit Realkredit, Denmark’s biggest mortgage bank, said in a note. “We expect that both house and apartment prices will drop by about 10% from a peak this summer to a trough in the autumn of next year.”

    Danes may also encounter rising rates after a sudden policy change in Japan may make it less attractive for Japanese investors to buy Danish mortgage bonds, according to Mathias Dollerup Sproegel, a senior economist at Sydbank. The investors have traditionally been among the largest buyers of the Danish assets.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,564 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves

    Incorrect again. The government allowed an early retirement scheme. I do not remember any top up maybe I am wrong.

    The dishonesty was the way younger PS were treated in that there wages were bought substantially lower. Not that I disagreed totally with that. The pension levy leaves many of a situation where it's impossible to top up the new scheme.

    Slava Ukrainii

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt

    It’s not just the public sector getting increases…inflation drives up wages simple…. People will still have a lower disposable income because it won’t match inflation and will face a squeeze… some sectors will do better than others. Government tax take increases in nominal terms as they collect a more vat etc.

  • Registered Users Posts: 123 ✭✭LJ12345

    If stock markets take a nosedive corporations will reign in spending, it’s all about profits.

  • Registered Users Posts: 20,057 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus

    no need for anyone to educate themselves with the standard of posting here, its all laid out in detail.

    Its like reading a tabloid headline over and over reading your posts, is there an app you are using?

  • Registered Users Posts: 29,415 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78

    ...already starting to happen...

    ...yup, lets keep the blindfolds on, lets keep sticking our fingers in our ears.... theres clearly something seriously wrong with our global financial system!

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,564 ✭✭✭baldbear

    Treasure Ireland.

    "Macquarie, the Australian bank, has established a €100 million fund to buy homes in Ireland, new financial documents have shown. Broadstone Housing Investments Limited, an Irish entity controlled by the bank, has already started to use the funds to acquire second-hand homes in Carlow."

  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900

  • Registered Users Posts: 192 ✭✭IWW2900

    Watch the stock market today to get a sense of whats coming.

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt

    So end of year rebalancing of portfolio positions in a period of low volume is the benchmark of what’s coming.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 34,919 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe

    When is it coming? Give a timeframe. Without a timeframe your statement means nothing.

    A catastrophe is always coming. The difference between those in the know versus hacks is actual predictions and not vague statements.

This discussion has been closed.