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Softening house market?

  • 09-05-2022 8:08pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1 jmb2022


    Trying to get a sense of other sellers, their experience, and perhaps the perspective of estate agents out there. Is the once frothy, seller-market softening with the onset of inflation, higher costs of living and concerns around conflict in Ukraine? I'm hearing rumours of houses on the market with declining foot traffic and less offers.



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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,866 ✭✭✭ Padre_Pio


    http://daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2022q1-dafthouseprice

    Sobering reading.

    House prices have risen nationally every quarter for the past seven. Still a massive undersupply of houses, new and second hand.

    There won't be much softening until we get more supply, which could be years away.

    Inflation in rental costs will push more towards buying.

    Ukraine likely won't have much impact on people's decision to buy.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 59,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tar.Aldarion


    Seems to be a hell of a lot of competition still, everything I looked at has been bid up like crazy and finally went sale agreed 100k over asking on a place.



  • Registered Users Posts: 489 ✭✭ yew_tree


    Saw a house near me reduce in asking price by 20k today. First time I’ve seen a reduction in years. It’s crazy out there.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,347 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    You might see more of these. Houses it seems are being priced at a little under expected sale price in general. Sometimes though im sure the vendor will overshoot and price it so high as to just drive away any interested viewers and will have to reduce to get them interested in looking. After that I guess it depends on the value they feel the house is worth after viewing.

    Its very possible that if you keep an eye on that house it may still sell over the original asking price. Or maybe they have totally overshot in their estimation of its value. It doesnt mean tyhe house is worth any more or less than it is worth.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,801 ✭✭✭ Xander10


    Not seen any evidence of that. All properties I know of nationwide currently, have gone sale agreed almost immediately for well above asking price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭ toyotatommy


    We are back at pre 2007 boom prices. Property is hot.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,347 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    Property prices havent increased in a decade and a half :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭ theboringfox


    Interest rate reductions drove up house prices globally and increases will do opposite. Bigger factor than supply which is a big issue also.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,632 ✭✭✭ Tombo2001


    The big difference between now and then is that the banks arent going crazy.

    Other things might be happening that could drag it back, such as tech salaries softening. But this is more marginal than the banking issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,000 ✭✭✭✭ Donald Trump


    The market turned very quickly in 2008. Different factors at play perhaps, but still. Things kinda froze almost overnight and there was this uneasy confusion for a short while until the arse started to fall out of everything. The money people thought they had was often only an illusion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭ Gusser09


    We will never get the supply of houses that they are talking about achieving. It won't happen.

    House prices might not rise to much more but they certainly won't drop.

    It's a totally different market to the Celtic Tiger era. No 110 percent mortgages with the new car sitting in the drive etc. The bank and thus the taxpayer aren't as exposed it things go tits up this time.

    Lets not forget that the arrears crisis is still with us with a lot of people still not paying back the full amount per month and have tens of thousands of arrears on their balance.

    The cost of everything s going up but it isn't being matched by a rise in salaries.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    My neighbours house went on the market a couple of weeks ago and their open days have been mobbed. A family friend was interested and did a viewing and said that the bids were already way over asking according to the estate agent. The houses are almost identical and he is looking for nearly twice what we bought ours for in 2011 so fully Celtic Tiger pricing here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭ sweetmaggie


    "Really motivated buyers with inflation running at over 2% per month and really low supply means the property market wont be cooling anytime soon "..... this is according to interview on right now on Newstalk with Eoin O Neill, property adviser and Pat Kenny.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,829 ✭✭✭ fliball123


    Overnight ehh it took 4 years for property to bottom out in 2012. Hardly overnight



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,000 ✭✭✭✭ Donald Trump




  • Registered Users Posts: 306 ✭✭ bakerbhoy




  • Registered Users Posts: 13,000 ✭✭✭✭ Donald Trump


    Poster either can't read or can't understand. The arse did fall out of everything fairly quickly. There were hardly any transactions. If you want to look back with rose-tinted glasses, then feel free to do so.


    The only way that prices can go is up - right? You are 100% guaranteed that whatever you pay today will be less than what you would get for it in 5 years? Right



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,483 ✭✭✭ Gusser09


    Based on what we know of the root causes behind the rise yes I think it will only go up for the medium term. I don't think they will keep rising at the rates they have been but I don't see a massive crash though, In saying that if building materials and the costs of construction in general keep rising , not matched by wages then people in turn might not be able to afford to build. It's a hard one to predict that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,829 ✭✭✭ fliball123


    Sorry you said it froze in 2008 it was more of a gradual decline than a freezing in prices



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,829 ✭✭✭ fliball123


    The arse didnt fall out prices declined over 4 years that is hardly the arse falling out. There were still sales going on in those 4 years and the fact that the banks stopped lending stopped a lot of people from buying in that period also.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,000 ✭✭✭✭ Donald Trump



    Hi Fliball. I never mentioned prices.

    You are welcome to "remember" that the market just declined over 4 years from 2008 to 2012 if you want. Most will disagree with you.

    I wonder why they bothered setting up NAMA or putting all that money into the banks around 2008 so ...... Maybe Biffo just had great foresight that the great crash of 2012 was coming


    My memory is of going from a situation where people were queuing up overnight, or for days, to buy planned houses off plans, to a relatively short lull where things went eerily quiet, to a rapid deterioration of the market where people wanted to get out. Probably within the space of one buying season.

    Your recollection of the market is apparently different, and if I may say it, unsupported by data



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭ HerrKuehn


    ECB rates will be at 1.5-1.75 by September next year (looking at euribor futures and interest rate swaps), this will put about 2% onto interest rates here. It should seriously affect the amount people will be able to borrow. In my opinion, we will see house price drops once that kicks in. As to the OP, it can be good to keep on eye on thing like numbers turning up at open viewings etc to see where the market is going.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,347 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    Another month now and the market will have its seasonal lull. Have to wait til middle of September to see how it picks up after that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,374 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    I'd agree with this, when we were looking in 2011 we went to open days where we were the only ones turning up. Some estate agents at the time told us they were not doing open days, just by appointment only- at the time we assumed that was because nobody was turning up to the open day on some houses.

    The crash happened because of credit tightening, this time tight supply is keeping prices raised, maybe the so called "soft landing" is actually going to happen this time.

    Frankly I'd rather prices dropped as we are now trapped pretty much in a home we have largely outgrown as the cost of trading up has now increased too. Our neighbour is selling up for the same reason though he is moving to the countryside where he has family so will get more bang for his money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,083 ✭✭✭ HerrKuehn


    Right, in terms of viewings etc. I just mention it because during the crash the last time, I timed buying by reading the property pin where bears were turning bullish and there were people saying a noticeable change in numbers turning up at viewings etc. This was end of 2012 and I started looking then, buying about 5 months later.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,829 ✭✭✭ fliball123


    Donald regardless of your memory or mine the facts are that prices came down over the 4 years and bottomed out in 2012. There are stats there that can be looked at so we dont have to rely on memory


    Also I think prices will start to stall over the next 2 years with all of the indicators such as inflation and interest rates.



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