Softening house market?

Doesnt it always slow into Winter and pick up again in Spring though?

Not sure how seasonal the CSO data is. Although the October data probably represents summer sales so wouldn’t expect it to be a big factor this month.

The one thing that does need to be factored in is the split between new and existing houses…. There is a lag in new house prices in the CSO where someone agreed the price and the house got delivered in 9 months time….I suspect that if you drilled into cso data that there is probably a difference story between executed and filled in the current climate.

I think alot of market forces are down to sentiment ,while you consider variable mortages to be a negative so prices should drop .Older lads would consider 3.5% mortage rates as affordable compared to rates 10 +years ago and like always said 'rent is dead money'

At the start of this year I predicted the Irish residential market would cool by 10% but it would be over 12-24 months. I have seen nothing to indicate yet I am wrong. However there is no benefit to buyers in that.

Why so.

Because a mortgage take out 3-6 months ago would have a lower variable rate than one taken out in 6-12 months time.whennyou factor in rental cost along with it over five years the cost is virtually the same

Will we see a collapse in Boise prices in the order on 25% plus. Ya if MNC wages drop by 10-15% and unemployment rises to 10%, and EU interest rates rise to 3.5-4% There is no indication that such actions will happen it would take a combination of events to cause such an action.

Actually the biggest issue Ireland is facing over the next 1-3 years is the temporary exodus of younger workers now that COVID is over. The vast majority of these workers will be from the construction/utility sector.

Most people at present borrow in 3-5 year fixed cycles. Usually if you manage the first 5-10 years of a loan the increase in capital V the decrease in interest payments smooths the effects of any rate rise.

As Murph pointed out historically we did build social units its only a recent phenomenon that we stopped (last 20 years) so it can be done... .. I think Modular houses ramped up is the way to go and move both refugees and those on welfare into these. Hopefully this new planning bill will help expedite building

i will stick with the risk assessment of ESRB rather than cherry pick stats to get a point across.

The fact remains Sweden has has extreme house price growth in recent years which make’s Ireland house price growth look flat in comparison. They have been flagged as high risk and have been given warnings that their housing market is exposed to an crash…Ireland is classified as medium risk and haven’t received any warnings…the biggest risk identified for Ireland was lack of supply and the risk of driving house prices higher as a result.

The government as in the local authorities) used to build houses. They had their own workers and build to a high standard. It was noticed around the 1990s that it was costing more to provide houses that way that the equivalent house was selling for on the open market. The councils then decided to simply buy houses from developers and save money. The trouble with employing labour directly is that the workers unionise and can't be laid off during periods of temporary inactivity and insist on outdated work practices in order to keep the numbers up. I saw 4 men appear to repair a burco boiler in a government office one day. A plumber and his mate, an electrician and his mate came to do a job that would have been done by a handyman in a hotel in 20 minutes. This was after the plumber and his mate came to look at it and said "electrical" and walked off. the electrician wouldn't work on the boiler until the water was turned off ( plumbers job). Neither the plumber or the electrician would take their own tools from their tool boxes. That was their mate's job.

There has been woeful under-investment in apprenticeships and training for the trades for years. There was a time when the local authorities and the board oif works could attract applications from top class tradesmen. Now thay are not on the field.

Anyone who thinks that the housing problem can be solved by the government employing labour directly to build houses is badly mistaken.

I know for fact an acquaintance of mine bought an apartment small cramped thing, couldn't even call it apartment outside Stockholm about 10 years ago for like 40k eur and sold it early this year for 150k. Obviously in their kroner.

They have a very controlled rental market by the state.