Softening house market?

Differentiate how though, from the perspective of where property prices go from here?

It takes two seconds to google fixed rate mortgages offered in Sweden: https://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/bonds/sweden/mortgagerates

I think alot of market forces are down to sentiment ,while you consider variable mortages to be a negative so prices should drop .Older lads would consider 3.5% mortage rates as affordable compared to rates 10 +years ago and like always said 'rent is dead money'

Because both variable and fixed rates are going up for house purchasers and its house purchasers that determine the price of properties not existing homeowners.

You're comparing fixed rates versus variable rates at one point in time. The banks are considering market interest rates over the life of the mortgage in determining their pricing - it's not like they're giving free money away to fixed rate mortgage holders. The lack of supply also existed in the Swedish market not so long ago.

For those that understand, no explanation necessary, for those that cannot, no explanation possible.

At the start of this year I predicted the Irish residential market would cool by 10% but it would be over 12-24 months. I have seen nothing to indicate yet I am wrong. However there is no benefit to buyers in that.

Why so.

Because a mortgage take out 3-6 months ago would have a lower variable rate than one taken out in 6-12 months time.whennyou factor in rental cost along with it over five years the cost is virtually the same

Will we see a collapse in Boise prices in the order on 25% plus. Ya if MNC wages drop by 10-15% and unemployment rises to 10%, and EU interest rates rise to 3.5-4% There is no indication that such actions will happen it would take a combination of events to cause such an action.

Actually the biggest issue Ireland is facing over the next 1-3 years is the temporary exodus of younger workers now that COVID is over. The vast majority of these workers will be from the construction/utility sector.

Most people at present borrow in 3-5 year fixed cycles. Usually if you manage the first 5-10 years of a loan the increase in capital V the decrease in interest payments smooths the effects of any rate rise.

As Murph pointed out historically we did build social units its only a recent phenomenon that we stopped (last 20 years) so it can be done... .. I think Modular houses ramped up is the way to go and move both refugees and those on welfare into these. Hopefully this new planning bill will help expedite building

According to the following report Sweden and Ireland have more or less the same house price to income ratios as of Q2 2022:

I'd wonder about the ECB / EC models used when preparing the following chart (page 23 of the ESRB report):

• EC uses PV of rental income as part of its model and based on that judges Irish prices to be undervalued - which is a logical conclusion except that it's a house of cards (social unrest, State can't afford it, SF may get into power, unaffordable to vast swathes of the population without State aid, erosion of property rights).
• ECB on the otherhand uses a model that determines appropriate house prices as a function of income, the real housing capital stock per household, and real average mortgage interest rates. Which is fine when everything is stable but where does the model leave us when interest rates are on an upwards trajectory.

I'd have thought the number of years of income needed to buy 100 sqm would be the best indicator of overvaluation and Ireland has the worst overvaluation except for Croatia by this measure.

No idea. Are you suggesting Irish property overvaluation is justified based on build quality?

i will stick with the risk assessment of ESRB rather than cherry pick stats to get a point across.

The fact remains Sweden has has extreme house price growth in recent years which make’s Ireland house price growth look flat in comparison. They have been flagged as high risk and have been given warnings that their housing market is exposed to an crash…Ireland is classified as medium risk and haven’t received any warnings…the biggest risk identified for Ireland was lack of supply and the risk of driving house prices higher as a result.

The government as in the local authorities) used to build houses. They had their own workers and build to a high standard. It was noticed around the 1990s that it was costing more to provide houses that way that the equivalent house was selling for on the open market. The councils then decided to simply buy houses from developers and save money. The trouble with employing labour directly is that the workers unionise and can't be laid off during periods of temporary inactivity and insist on outdated work practices in order to keep the numbers up. I saw 4 men appear to repair a burco boiler in a government office one day. A plumber and his mate, an electrician and his mate came to do a job that would have been done by a handyman in a hotel in 20 minutes. This was after the plumber and his mate came to look at it and said "electrical" and walked off. the electrician wouldn't work on the boiler until the water was turned off ( plumbers job). Neither the plumber or the electrician would take their own tools from their tool boxes. That was their mate's job.

There has been woeful under-investment in apprenticeships and training for the trades for years. There was a time when the local authorities and the board oif works could attract applications from top class tradesmen. Now thay are not on the field.

Anyone who thinks that the housing problem can be solved by the government employing labour directly to build houses is badly mistaken.

I know for fact an acquaintance of mine bought an apartment small cramped thing, couldn't even call it apartment outside Stockholm about 10 years ago for like 40k eur and sold it early this year for 150k. Obviously in their kroner.

They have a very controlled rental market by the state.

This doesn't mean a whole lot without a rake of other data points. The most obvious being the size of the houses being bought in Sweden compared with here. These guys were playing around with interest only mortgages that were sitting at a low of 1.3% only a year ago, it's pretty obvious they will get burned much worse than we will.