Swatch X Omega

Deep Thought

Ludicrous…

C0N0R

So does all this mean there is a slightest chance of getting a sub at retail in the next 12 months or not!?

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181454#Comment_119181454

Yes. I think it could be on the cards. But hard to say really.

It’s easy to get people pay list when there is a chance of profit and their investment protected. If that goes then it’s a different dynamic.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181454#Comment_119181454

Without any history? I'd say the only chance of that is if world war III has started. And then you'd either be dead or otherwise not really interested in buying a Rolex in an AD at retail 😂

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181454#Comment_119181454

You can always be lucky . My wait for a sub in weirs was from march to September last year with very little history

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181454#Comment_119181454

I'd reckon what's more likely to happen is stagnation. Too many people, actual buyers with actual cash rather than dealers/flippers played man maths over the covid period and are invested at values way above retail. They'll be in no rush to sell at a loss, so will likely hang onto their watch(s). Which means fewer coming to market at normal prices. Dealers and flippers bouncing from one deal to the next with other dealer/flippers are in much more precarious positions and need the rodeo to keep running. That end of things looks very shaky. Enough actual buyers with actual cash will see the market softening and not want to buy at their dealer prices and we'll get stagnation there too.

Like I was saying this already happened in the vintage world. The singular difference between that world and the current Rolex/AP/PP world is that the latter are still being produced. Thousands per day in the case of Rolex and not far off a thousand per week even for a brand like Patek. I suspect we're going to see a gap opening between new watches in AD windows and current/new in box/slightly used watches in owner's watchrolls.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181931#Comment_119181931

Maybe you look like Conor McGregor? 🤣

Plenty of regulars in here have spent tonnes of money in Weir's and never got a desirable Rolex / Patek at retail. I wouldn't use your experience to get people's hope up. Chance of getting one at retail with zero spending history at the moment is near zero.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182961#Comment_119182961

Well this regular did so it does happen.A lad in work got a 41mm azzuro datejust in 3 weeks earlier this year as well.Think positive and put your name down.

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182961#Comment_119182961

Agree. But it looks like things are changing.

its important to remember and not get blinded that the last 3-4 years are the anomaly in the watch world and not assume it will always be this way.

If there is no profit to be made then lists will evaporate. Now do I expect to see gmt in the window anytime soon? Nope. But getting a steel sub or datejust without having to invest half your house value in **** you don’t want. That’s a possibility. Time will tell.

Watches sales above retail are very slow. Buyers have lost confidence. Dealers already breaking ranks with watch sales etc. There is an incredible stock of “hype” pieces in safes that are dropping like stones.

The way over hyped pieces like sports Patek, AP, Daytona, blro are leading the way with massive corrections in progress. These are the leading edge. The rest will follow suit. Same as a rising tide lifts all boats. When the tide goes back out…..

This is unsellable in the current market.

unkel

Agree 100%, @893bet

I think you might agree though that it is very unlikely you'll be able to walk in anonymously and pick up a brand new 41mm sub no date from Weir's there and then or from any grey dealer in Ireland second hand for the list price of €8650 this year.

scwazrh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119183394#Comment_119183394

Not this year but I’d be fairly sure it will get back to that at some stage , or very limited waiting periods . It will be interesting to see how many of the grey dealers are around in 12 months .

njburke

I watched this last night, its some guys thoughts on what the moonswatchs impact had been. It's matter of fact type stuff and bit of opinion.

https://youtu.be/DEh7QTyNvNE

893bet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119183394#Comment_119183394

It feels unimaginable.

fat bloke

Let's say the day came that you could just walk in off the street, browse a bunch of Rolexes, pick one out at RRP and walk away whistling...

Is that the dream, or the nightmare scenario?

Would anyone bother? If you take away the exclusivity, the resale and the perception, the emperor's new clothes, I presume they'd just be A. N. Other watches?

Fitz II

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119184308#Comment_119184308

See I think that would improve things a lot. There is no exclusivity at the moment. People are buying them and because they are appreciating there is no consequences to it. Its an investment, not a luxury purchase. Bring back the days when the purchase means something. Its been a display of your saving account for too long rather than a display of your disposable.

mailforkev

Nah, with inflation the way it is a basic Sub will soon be a 10k watch. The intersect of people who are into watches and people with a spare 10k that they’re willing to put into a watch is still tiny (outside of here, in the real world).

40k grey asking for a SS Daytona is mental, but even if they drop back to 20k it’s not really making them much more accessible. The exclusivity is still very much there.

And with the way all watches have gone more mainstream over the last few years, the image/perception is rock solid. Owning a 10k watch is still something special, even though we’re all a bit jaded and over Rolex, it’s still an achievement being able to afford one.

fat bloke

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119184364#Comment_119184364

That's an interesting take on it alright. Would or could the brand maintain its pricing stiff upper lip in a "normal" market? Could you see them sticking up the "SALE" signs?

Get 'em while they're hot, 20% off all Rolex, this weekend only!! Free Moonswatch with every purchase! (T's & C's apply, subject to availability, minimum purchase €9,999, legacy customers on waiting lists ineligible). 😁

fat bloke

Personally if be more inclined to buy one if they were available normally, as an, as you say, aspirational purchase.

If I get a whiff of nod or wink or scratch my back chicanery in such things - being "allowed" to purchase something, it puts me right off. Doesn't matter what it is. For some a queue is an attraction, an accelerator. It just makes me want to go elsewhere.

Fitz II

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119184455#Comment_119184455

To be honest this 100% I absolutely hate the way it is now.

mailforkev

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119184469#Comment_119184469

The one thing everyone agrees on.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119184411#Comment_119184411

Free Rolex with a complete set of MoonSwatches 🤣

heffo500

Do you reckon in a couple of months these will be for sale near retail on eBay once the hype dies down?

unkel

That's what people said 3 months ago when they were launched. It didn't happen. I guess it very much depends on how many are still being sold. For sure some buyers will get bored with them and put them up for sale.

whippet

I'm in San Fran at the moment and popped in to a swatch shop .. none in stock and I was chatting to one of the staff .. they are due another delivery .. getting one delivery a week and they tend to sell out within the hour. He couldn't tell me when the next delivery was due as they are not even been told by swatch when the deliveries will arrive ... it is to stop the same people buying the available stock.

not sure what to make of what he was saying but he did say to try and pop in about noon tomorrow !

j2

This is hilarious, the flippers must be delighted.

Wibbs

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119268035#Comment_119268035

Yeah, funny that it was announced for online purchase at the start, even had the webpage set up. They must have forgotten about the lack of "emotion" involved. "Carefully produced Swiss made watch"🤣 Ah jaysus the bull keeps coming. I've had one in the flesh, or rather cheap placcy with added "leatherish" and velcro. It's a cheap and cheerful Swatch about a hundred quid to expensive. At retail.

Like I reckoned earlier I do think a part of the slump in the wider watch bubble with the very expensive stuff has come on the heels of the MoonSwatch hype. It was the same thing, but far far cheaper and far easier to see the emperor's new clothes and that infected the entry level steel Rolex with a dial that kinda looks like the Tiffany blue, but isn't craziness.

whippet

Despite all the hate I picked up a Saturn in NY today ... only one left in the store on 5th .. no other models at all

its light feels cheap but I really like it .. bizarrely they recommended not wearing it out when leaving the store and to put it in my back pack as people are watching customers leaving the store. So a $3000 tag was safer on my wrist than a €260 swatch

unkel

Not the pick of the bunch and you will need to change that crap strap, but still a cool watch. Well wear!

Fitz II

I like it, for some reason these dont annoy me, they should but they dont. I like them a bit of fun.

whippet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119287466#Comment_119287466

That's my take on it .. swatch have always been a bit of fun and why shouldn't this be any different.

also .. as a marketing tool it works .. I walked in to get one and the kids were with me and they both walked out with a cheap swatch of their own