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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2022 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Spring 2022.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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After yet another exceptionally mild winter it is time to move on and look forward to the Spring. How is this Spring shaping up? At the moment it is difficult to tell how settled or unsettled March will be. I think it will be a mostly zonal and mild month, similar to the previous winter months. However the PV should weaken and this may allow blocking to form at some point leading to some cool days at times during March and April.

March will start off drier than the very wet February and this will be needed to dry out the waterlogged fields. It won't be completely dry however, there will be some rain or showers at times especially in the west and north.

The GFS wants to bring us high pressure as we head towards mid month with possibly some very mild air feeding up from the south.

We finish up with a very mild south-westerly dragging very mild air over us and keeping the Atlantic fronts just off to our north-west.

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Danno

Interesting that 2008 was so fab in May... it went really downhill from there. It was a washout summer and part of the great run of bad summers from 2007 to 2012 inclusive. Though 2010 had it's reprieves, all those summers were showery with frontal rains and also cool.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023464#Comment_119023464

You know Ireland too well down to a tee :/

Warmest May IMTs (since 1958):

2008 13.0C

1990 12.3C

2018 12.3C

2017 12.3C

1999 12.3C

1998 12.3C

1992 12.2C

1960 12.2C

2020 12.2C

1970 12.1C

Most of these have differences of hundredths of a degree and I have them in descending order based on this but have rounded to the nearest tenth for simplicity. May 2008 was above and beyond by far the warmest May on record in the country due to the frequency of warm easterlies.

1989 was a warm May but not one of the warmest on record for Ireland whilst also being very sunny.

pauldry

It is almost certain that this won't be as warm as we hope and us in the West will be saying its only 14c here n misty. However the trend is warm and May will end up significantly milder than average this year. If highs were to align would be near record warmth IMT. By the way sryan what is the warmest May? Do I remember 1989 being roasting?

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021715#Comment_119021715

Oh there's still a fair chance (like just over 50%) that some kind of ridging will occur towards the third week of May but I wouldn't be betting my money on a proper stubborn ridge over us to give guaranteed countrywide sunshine and warm temperatures. I'd say the highest chance is for the ridge to be centred over the Low Countries with somewhat of a southeasterly flow to Ireland which would likely give at least a few days of warm temperatures for most but low pressure close by might give a few showers so there might be a fair amount of cloud around.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021722#Comment_119021722

The GFS 00z was a good one, not heatwave terrority but not far off (for the time of year). The ensembles look encouraging that we will see a signifcant warm up during the 3rd week of May, although there is no guarantee that things will become settled just yet. The BBC will always be a bit more upbeat as England will have a higher chance of sunshine and warmth than we do. Expect more flip flopping over the next few days before this comes into the reliable timeframe.

Jizique

BBC tonight was very upbeat on their 10 day forecast

Avon8

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119021194#Comment_119021194

Would you have a ballpark percentage chance of that spell of high pressure actually coming to fruition, in that 3rd week of the month? Have a family wedding towards the end of it

sryanbruen

For those seeking the warm sunshine, not great developments on the models today all around I'm afraid with any high pressure influence being delayed further into the third week of the month. This is not just the case for Ireland or the UK but for much of northwestern Europe. The most positive thing I can say is even if it is unsettled, temperatures are unlikely to deviate much from the May average which for most is around 14 or 15C. This is due to the fact that sea surface temperatures are above average so any returning tropical maritime airmasses will be less moderated.

However, I am only clutching at straws really as I don't want to come across as a Debbie downer. Pretty much all of next week now is looking quite unsettled.

Otherwise everything I said yesterday in more detail remains relevant today.

Gonzo

The coming week will be a bit more unsettled than what we've been used to over recent weeks. Tomorrow is going to be a wet and cool day, although overall not as miserable as last weekend. Western and northern areas should clear up late morning or early afternoon with southern and eastern areas mostly wet or damp for much of tomorrow with a clearance by evening. Saturday and Sunday will be quite warm with temperatures possibly reaching 18 or 19C in many areas and will be mostly dry.

Next week will be unsettled particularly in western and northern areas with up to 50mm of rainfall in western areas and 10 to 20mm of rainfall across eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will be more average between 12 and 16C generally during the course of next week. It will feel cool particularly under persistant rainfall and may be fairly breezy at times with chilly north-west winds.

What happens after next week is still very much up in the air particularly for Ireland. The latest GFS run is saying no to warm and settled weather for Ireland as an area of low pressure breaks off from Greenland and makes a beeline for Ireland while the UK will be enjoying summer, although no heatwave for them either on this particular run.

The above solution is unlikely to verify being so far out, this could be a cool and unsettled outlyer and the GFS 12z will most likely be different again, but goes to show what a knifeedge this is between the warm and settled and cool and unsettled.

pauldry

Yr.no is showing 23c for Mullingar in 9 days time. All fantasy of course but nice. Any placement of highs in the right area would help temperatures shoot up. Paddys week was still the warmest one in Sligo this year. Yesterday most of the country was 18c but Sligo was 12c

sryanbruen

That's one detail I forgot to add @Meteorite58, if we are going to get a ridge from the Azores that gives us a genuine chance of warmth and isn't transient, it will be from later next week onwards. The ridge in the coming few days is flimsy and will be quickly replaced by fronts from the Atlantic through the early days of next week. Will we get that second ridge from the Azores or will the jet stream be too far south over Ireland and we remain under the influence of the Atlantic? Always the same questions in our part of the world.

Meteorite58

Models trending that bit wetter now out to +240hrs, could get a few spells of rain later Mon into Tues and possibly Weds also, not too much currently showing after that into the Weekend. ECM showing a warm couple of days at the end of next week from warm Southerlies, into the 20's , not far off what the GFS is showing but it is not showing as warm , one to watch out of interest.

sryanbruen

GFS back to pumping up the warmth on the 12z operational run for the third week of May, one to bank. (The 06z had a big area of high pressure but the wind was mainly easterly so wasn't feeding in as warm an airmass to the country but still relatively warm and very sunny with lots of dry weather). GEFS are currently out to day 11 when writing this post, the trend is certainly warmer than average. Just how warm we're talking will depend on the wind direction and how much sunshine there will be.

Background signals are supportive of a warm May going forward, significantly different to last year which was the coldest May since 1996. As ever though, will Ireland be on the periphery of any warm air advection from the south/southeast and under an area of low pressure? Will the low pressure be displaced far north enough along with the jet stream to allow ridges from the Azores to come our way? May is always one of the trickiest months to decipher what will occur due to the slack nature of everything and the month having the tendency to be blocked for climatological reasons.

Don't take that GFS literally, that's a golden scenario for anybody seeking warmth. This seems obvious to anybody who visits this forum regularly but it's always a good reminder for newcomers or those who forget and take what we post as gospel.

Watch this space. Not suggesting a heatwave. Not suggesting a scorcher on the way. But the possibility is there for something special to occur mid-month, dependent on the placement of high pressure. I will try and keep up to date if things develop but I can't guarantee due to either a busy schedule or the fact I still cannot stand the new Boards as of July last year. But even if I don't, I'm sure the regulars here will keep you up to date enough.

Meteorite58

Promising for an increase in Temperatures. ECM keeping the LP's out and toying with building HP. Drier on this run also, more so than the GFS. Could be seeing temps getting up to the 20C mark or so this coming weekend and into the following week, ECM showing warmer than the GFS at present.

Samy2012's day next Sat, just on the border of +120hrs, looks on the warm side up to the high teens for good parts of the country maybe touching 20C , looks like it might hold mostly dry also with light winds, fingers crossed 😅

Gonzo

Finally we are starting to see signs in FI that we may have a chance of tapping into the first real heat of the season with temperatures possibly getting to 24 or 25C around the middle of this month. This is a long way off of course so probably won't verify but will see how this goes.

However this is a long way out and is looking a bit flimsy with a big area of low pressure to our south-west, which when the time comes could easily sit itself centred over Ireland.

In this setup Ireland is just about on the edge of the warm and settled conditions, wouldn't take much of an adjustment to have low pressure in control over our weather instead. Fingers crossed this mornings GFS verifies and we get a decent warm and dry spell at some stage this month.

Edit: Turns out this GFS operational run is a bit of an outlier, most other options are either unsettled or dry with more typical temperatures for the time of year.

[Deleted User]

My phone weather forecast is giving rain for the 7th and 8th. We're in Donegal and have a Communion on. Having the bouncy castle bizz so hopefully forecast perks up 🤔

Sammy2012

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118999186#Comment_118999186

I'll take that! 🤞

Meteorite58

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118976420#Comment_118976420

Still a long way off and no way certain but if we take these charts from ECM as a starting point and see if they trend over the next few days. Showing HP build and giving temps in the high teens and possibly up to or slightly over 20C. GFS in the mid teen to high teens range at present, both showing some frontal rain at some stage either the end of next week or into the start of the following week but a lot of dry weather also, both too far away to know for sure.

ECM builds the HP more than the GFS and holds on it out to at least +240hrs. Will see.

Dazler97

As long as darkness into light walk is dry and not raining fingers crossed 🤞

Sammy2012

What are the charts showing currently for the weekend of the 7th?

Meteorite58

HP dominated weather out to +240hr, low amounts of rainfall showing up and light winds. Temperatures mid teens at times away from windward coasts, maybe a chance of getting up to the high teens by around next weekend in a few favorable locations depending on the position of the HP ??

Meteorite58

ECM looking much colder than the GFS from about next Tues . Showing wintry showers, possibly of hail also with a trace of snow possible on hills and mountain's. Widespread sharp frosts. Low rainfall totals in general and no strong winds of note although might be fresh around midweek making it feel cold.

Interesting to see if it holds the cold /very cold theme or will it moderate a bit.

Birdnuts

Don't like the look of those charts - though it was inevitable that the Ducks Ar%e of a PV would weaken at some stage. Hopefully its a short lived thing like nearly all "Northerlies" are nowadays

Meteorite58

Cold and possibly wintry plunge on the ECM 12C charts this evening, GFS less cold but does get there eventually although not as pronounced as the ECM .

Meteorite58

Dominant HP outlook with very low rainfall showing up over the next 10 days, cooler nights from next weekend.

Gonzo

GFS is now showing the beginnings of a cold plunge at the end of it's run. Unlikely to verify and even if it did, it is 6 weeks too late.

This would be an annoyance more than anything with cold rain for most and high heating bills.

Meteorite58

Liking the low rainfall showing up in the charts out to +240hrs. ECM showing a cold plunge towards the end of the run but not so from the GFS.

Could be a few nice mild days next week, possibly cooler towards the weekend with frosty nights in places.

Sun climbing and can feel the house warming through the glass, will need it with the price of oil 😄!

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769341#Comment_118769341

Aww that sounds horrible, I was hoping either snow or fog for my birthday it's 19th, your dead right it is too late for proper snow and early for decent heat

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118769323#Comment_118769323

It's the Spring break. Winter is over, it's too late for decent snow model watching and it's too early for proper warmth. There is very little happening in FI, all the cold is over Greece and Turkey and just average rainy conditions for here.

Dazler97

This is dead, is there no people posting?