Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

Manach

Earlier this month, I would have reckoned it unlikely Russian would stage an invasion. Now I am not sure.

Historically, many of Russia's attacks (no matter the regeime) have been oportunistic (Hungary during Suez etc.) . Other powers were destracted and Russia took the Clauswitzian route of using the military to advance political goals. While there is weakness in the West ( post pandemic strife, weak leadership) there did not seem to be a sufficent reward to risk. However, events (akin to 1914) are seemly spiriling out of control and we may end up in a situation that none really wanted and in which the post-Modern confirmity of the West will struggle with.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118659736#Comment_118659736

Remember the new Chinese silk road passes through Ukraine , eastern Ukraine enroute to Moscow ,

This could upset chinas plans ,if ukraine is in conflict or ukraine and it's neighbors say sorry china we don't want your silk road

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118660243#Comment_118660243

It's probably just a coincidence but if they launch an attack it'll be the third time that they've began an attack during or close to an Olympics under Putin (Georgia 2008 - began the week before the Beijing Summer Olympics; Crimea 2014 - began during the Sochi Winter Olympics)

Hobgoblin11

“I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” – Albert Einstein.

lulublue22

Have been following this for the last few weeks - tensions have ramped up significantly over the last 2 days - evacuation of women and children to Russia , call up of the male population bt ages of 18 - 55 , over 1600 ceasefire violations in Eastern Ukraine , Russian reports of “ attacks” by Ukraine forces for domestic consumption , Russian forces to stay in Belarus and reports of Russian forces 5k from the Ukraine border. I don’t know how diplomacy could work now - at this stage I think Putin has left himself no choice but to invade to save face.

joe40

How is this all playing out for Putin domestically. Do the Russian population in general believe that Russia should invade Ukraine.

Do a majority think that Ukraine should be part of Russian territory and an invasion is justified.

I know Russian media is controlled but I just wonder how much real support Putin has in this instance from the Russian people.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663065#Comment_118663065

There was a video done by Euronews or Al Jazeera , asking Russians in Moscow what they thought of the coming war ,

They all said ukraine is no threat to Russia and they should not be attacking Ukraine ,

Putin doesn't care what his people say he's supreme leader ,and unless the Russians people come out eamass to demand this ends we go to war

Brussels Sprout

why is Putin so afraid of Europes poorest country that given up its nuclear weapons to Russia and that Russia already occupies parts of?

I suspect you are asking this rhetorically but the real threat of Ukraine to Putin isn't any physical threat it poses to the borders of Russia. No, it's the prospect that it might actually succeed as a western democracy. That it might build strong institutions that allow the economy to thrive. That its press will be free to criticize its leaders and that they in turn can be voted out of office in free and fair elections.

Putin came to power after the chaos of the '90s in Russia. An era where many people lost their jobs and their life savings during a massive economic collapse. He vowed to ensure stability and to restore dignity to the people. That took him a long way and since then he's able to top up the opinion polls with a steady diet of nationalism and jingoism.

After the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine, Russian state TV reveled in showing its viewers wall to wall coverage of any chaotic scenes that ensued. The message was implicit: "This is what will happen here too if you were to try and get rid of Putin". They need Ukraine to be weak and chaotic to hammer home the message that the only alternative to Putin is a return to the chaos of the '90s. Ukraine cannot be allowed to succeed as a liberal democracy.

There are actually parallels here with the way that a lot of English Brexiteers do not want Northern Ireland to remain in the custom's unions, not because they actually care about the sovereignty of Northern Ireland but that they do not want it to thrive economically, compared to Great Britain, and show Brexit in a bad light.

Of course the Kremlin cannot admit this so instead we get the official line about a military threat.

lulublue22

Can Anyone recommend some good books / articles on eastern european history since the end of the cold war particularly the breakdown of the USSR / roots of the current conflict in Ukraine ? My knowledge of this is shocking and would be interested in reading up on it.

tks

Manach

Offhand two books to provide context

1 - Red Famine by Applebaum. This provides context on why some Ukrainian Nationists are against Russia due to Soviet times.

2 - War in 140 Characters by Patrikarakos. How modern war is full specturm, fought as much on social media as on the battlefield. One of the chapters deals with Ukraine.

lulublue22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663977#Comment_118663977

perfect tk you - have ordered Red Famine and Winter is coming ( mentioned in the book thread) from the local library to get me started.

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118663089#Comment_118663089

It would have to be a nation wide protest to have any chance of succeeding, and also it would spell the end of Putin's regime if it did succeed , so if we thought we have seen harsh responses to protests in the past, this one would be the daddy of them all. Putin & Co would be literally fighting for their lives.

Hobgoblin11

the showdown-authoritarianism v freedom, pick your sides!

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664461#Comment_118664461

It's impossible to protest meaningfully in Russia these days - especially on sensitive issues. Putin was so spooked by previous protests that they brought in a series of draconian laws banning any protests unless they're pre-approved by the authorities.

Only today, 6 people unfurled anti-war signs in the centre of Moscow and were immediately arrested:

https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1495367206384934912

jmreire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665033#Comment_118665033

Yes, its what has kept him in power these last 20 odd years. Even the slightest crack in the ice has to fixed immediately.....because if it was allowed to spread, the whole frozen river would start to break up and become unstoppable. Its all about critical mass..might start with smaller un-coordinated protests, and lead to more and more..especially if those at the top of the pyramid start getting jumpy.....and nothing scars them more than the rumblings of an earthquake, how ever faint. And I'm pretty sure that by now, there are rumblings in the higher echelons about the whole situation.

cnocbui

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118664016#Comment_118664016

I have sent you a PM if you want them a bit sooner.

lulublue22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118665221#Comment_118665221

Thanks a million really appreciate it - I pm you back but with the new layout I’m not sure if it sent to you or not.

Psychedelic Hedgehog

Thank you again @Brussels Sprout for setting this thread up, from an infrequent poster but long time listener. It’s a breath of fresh air.

Kermit.de.frog

The funny thing about Ukraine is, in 1917, it was originally a German experiment. A country that was created and "independent" but not really independent. It was a puppet state of Germany .

This was the idea of "limited sovereignty" - that is nations that are not nations.

The Germans created the whole concept way back then.

The thing is today the only country in the EU that is truly sovereign is Germany - everyone else is the puppet, they control everything including the purse strings - just as they created Ukraine way back in a sort of perverse test tube experiment.

It's interesting to look back and then think about contemporary reality.

In the end the whole of the EU are the puppet states and Germany is the sovereign country. The one with the real and only power over all these countries.

Ukraine was the first "country" that was sovereign only in name and now we have 26 countries sovereign only in name.

Germany is such an ingenious country. Fair play to them. Not going to begrudge success.

paul71

One immense gain Russia has had from this is the virtual annexation of Belarus. Lukanshenkos stolen election 18 months ago was so obvious that he, for the first time, had to run to Moscow during the protests in Minsk. Putin sent him back and the message was clear "I have chosen your president Belarus - now stop these silly protests".

Now we have 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops sitting in Belarus, even if nothing happens in Ukraine, Russia now has an army of occupation installed in Belarus without firing a shot.

johnnyskeleton

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666214#Comment_118666214

That line is unfortunately Kremlin propaganda.

For the 19th and early 20th Century, Ukraine was part of Imperial Russia.

Following the February 1917 revolution, the former Empire was governed by various bodies jostling for power. The most famous of these are of course the Petrograd Soviet and the Provisional Government, but there were other local bodies across the former empire. One of which was the Ukranian People's Republic. After the October 1917 revolution, when the Petrograd Soviet seized power from the Provisional Government, the Ukranian People's Republic declared itself independent in January, 2018. They were not universally recognised, and other groups were contending to be the government of the Ukraine, such as Ukranian nationalists.

The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which is claimed by Putin to be when the Germans invented the Ukraine, guaranteed Ukranian independence from the Soviet Union. The Germans did not create the Ukraine, they simply forced the fledgling Russian SSR to recognise their independence. The Germans certainly supported the Nationalist side, there is no argument with that.

This was short lived in any case, because the Ukraine was going through civil war and famine at the time. This later became part of the Russian Civil War, which was won by the Reds who then created the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union recognised the Ukranian SSR as being a constituent State of the Soviet Union.

The origins of Ukranian identity go back a long way, even to Kievian Rus (one of the early incarnations of the Russian Empire) and there has been a distinct Ukranian language, or at least slavic dialect, going back centuries.

It should also be borne in mind that the Russian Empire was not culturally homogenous, nor is modern Russia, with lots of ethnic minorities, regional autonomous republics etc. Look at Chechnya or Dagestan etc for examples.

So in summary, did Germany play a part in the Ukranian independence movement between 1917-1922 - yes. But not as big a part as the Red Army, that subsequently came in, took over and declared the Ukranian SSR, which, unlike the other states from 1917-1922, survived until 1990 and then continued as modern Ukraine.

Indeed, Russia recognised Ukraine's territorial independence under the Budapest Memorandum in 1994 in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nuclear arsenal.

The idea that Ukraine or Ukrainian independence was an invention of the Germans is an a-historical claim.

As for your comment about the EU being Germany plus 26 non-sovereign states, I don't even think this is worthy of a response and is, in any event, not relevant to the Ukraine crisis.

Also, I don't know enough about this concept of "limited sovereignty" that you talk about, but a quick google suggests that it is an idea that comes from the soviet union i.e. all soviet states are sovereign, but in a limited way and subject to the Soviet central command:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/1990-06-01/soviet-concept-limited-sovereignty-lenin-gorbachev-brezhnev

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118666598#Comment_118666598

There is the Belarusian referendum on the 27th that will see Lukashenkos rule extended until the 2030's at least ,the Russians troops aren't there by accident one of the reasons he called the referendum was to give him the power to invite Russian military to permanently stay in Belarus and he will be immune from any future prosecution for crimes he may have committed while in power ,

Putin sponsored the referendum ,only the other day Lukashenko discussed becoming a Colonel in the Russian army which suggests he's already given total power to Putin as the defacto leader of Belarus

StringerBell

Russia says it has destroyed a couple of military vehicles, and 5 Ukrainian soldiers who crossed the border into Russia.

Unconfirmed reports but I think that would be the first direct clash if there is to be a war

Yurt2

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495755876422111234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1495755876422111234%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-europe-60454795

Ukrainian Foreign Minister. Immense pressure on the Ukrainian state and armed forces now - discipline required. Russia looking for any pretext to cross the frontier.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667703#Comment_118667703

Propaganda we've seen numerous report s over the last few days, saying similar but zero evidence ever produced,

ambro25

It’s starting to escalate a little fast now-

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1495764089771114503?s=20&t=HdS2NHPIYmbRDwL4SrGMNg

That ‘appeal’ is a day old, maybe not even that.

Meanwhile, the false flag-laden maskirovka gathers pace-

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1495759836843286529?s=20&t=sJq2aDfVBaU2ALYQTs7GXA

As some pundits noted, looks and feels like Georgia 2008 all over again.

Brussels Sprout

This happened a couple of hours ago as well:

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1495726123686191106

This is shaping up very similar to Georgia in 2008 - except in that case the Georgians took the bait and responded to the Russian backed separatists. So far Ukraine has been disciplined but it likely won't even matter. If they don't attack then Russia will likely pretend that they did anyway.

Gatling

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118667989#Comment_118667989

Have you seen the border post that was supposedly hit 😂

Yurt2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118668005#Comment_118668005

Very much like Georgia in 2008. The clowns won't know this, but it's a matter of record back then Condoleeza Rice spent days on the phone to Tbilisi warning them not to walk into the Kremlin trap of responding to Russian sponsored and Russian state-linked mercenary military activities in the two zones, that they'll use any pretext for an invasion. Russian state also spent the previous year handing out Russian passports to non-Georgian ethnics as a pretext to 'protect' their nationals (passportization). Tanks rolled all the way to the suburbs of Tbilisi within days once they had their engineered casus belli they were desperate for. Exact same playbook but Ukraine looks a lot more disciplined and the outside world know the tactics. The next 48-72 hours will tell a lot how this is going to go.

This is dirty, dirty business Russia is up to.

Yurt2

Bonkers stuff from the live Security Council meeting in the Kremlin. The FSB chief stands up and says (paraphrasing) "we should integrate Donetsk and Luhansk into the Russian Federation". Putin interrupts, "NO, we're talking about recognizing their independence!". FSB chief replies "Oh, right yes. Exactly." Mariupol being mentioned as well (outside the two puppet states area of control).

Kosovo and Neo-Nazis, attacks against the Slavic world being invoked by Lavrov. Blithely suggests giving 2 more days to the West, but says it wont make a difference anyway.

Crazytown. The institutional Russian state is losing its mind.