BoJo banished - Liz Truss down. Is Rishi next for the toaster? **threadbans in OP**

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118335848#Comment_118335848

This kind of by-election swing against the government always happens mid-term.

When a general election is called in a few years, you'll find that North Shropshire will swing back to the Conservatives.

This was a vote to punish the Conservatives but, at a GE, they would definitely vote Con to avoid letting Labour in.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336022#Comment_118336022

He's done this to himself. Prior to 2019, before he started rabbitting on about getting Brexit done and levelling up he had a fairly unified support base while Labour is riven by factionalism. Now, he has multiple bases that don't much like each other and can't placate one without antagonising the other. The Lib Dems, weak as they are provide the acceptable way out for wavering Tories while Corbyn thankfully being excised from the party means moderates can vote Labour more comfortably than before.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336040#Comment_118336040

Agreed.

It's Trump all over again. If both had learnt to be silent at times, less circus then he would have been re-elected and Johnson probably PM for as long as he wanted.

Labour is currently a much more serious operation but there are an awful lot of odd balls in it lower down and in the Commons.

Like in Scotland the alienation was done mostly at council level, the activist on the street.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336099#Comment_118336099

Any large party is going to have its oddballs, but yes, if Johnson hexercised some form of discipline, he would not be in this mess. When covid hit, I thought that it would guarantee Trump's re-election. I never thought even he would start dispensing medical advice. I'll stop there though. That's for another thread.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336165#Comment_118336165

Trump could have ridden COVID to a landslide if he had viewed it as a war and become a war time President.

Another thread.

Mad_maxx

is this a temporary situation i wonder ?

the lib dems winning would suggest this , Labour winning would be a much bigger turn of events

seamus

Yes, Lib Dem victory is very clearly a message to the Tory party. Voters holding their nose to make a statement without doing any actual political damage to their party. If there had been a labour victory, that would be a huge deal, but this is basically telling the Tories the votes are still there so long as they fix the party.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118335979#Comment_118335979

That has nothing whatsoever got to do with my comment or your "change" theory. Sounds like your just trying to row back now

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336002#Comment_118336002

I was wondering how long it would take for one of these deflection comments

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336272#Comment_118336272

Labour would never win here. This is a real Tory vs Tory light constituency.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336307#Comment_118336307

Yes, it's a deflection, the Tories will be 19 years in power at the next election and need a record level swing against to be booted out.

24 years straight is likely.

Some deflection alright.

I'm deflecting from the awesome success that is the Labour party when obviously it is the electorate who have been found wanting.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118336428#Comment_118336428

It shows how woeful and unelectable the Labour party remain that this shi7show is still likely to be the next Govt.

How do you know the Labour party remain this unelectable. IT doesn't matter a damn that Tories will have been in for 14 years (not 19) that says nothing about the current electability of this Labour setup.

If "Tories have been in for 19 years do Labour are crap" is the answer to everything then we might as well give up debates altogether.

Capt'n Midnight

Tory MP Sir Roger Gale said the prime minister was on "last orders". "One more strike and he's out,"

Conservative Party chairman Oliver Dowden said: "I don't think this amounts to a sea-change."

So looks like Boris will be given another chance.

Which is a shame because Cliff Richard# could do with a Christmas No. 1

"Carrie doesn't live here anymore, Carrie used to room on the second floor..."

#He is a citizen of Barbados and was born and spent over seven years in India so could be chucked out of the UK tomorrow.

JupiterKid

It’s not looking good for bumbling buffoon Boris, and rightly so.

One or two more gaffes and he’s a goner. Labour however are in huge disarray still and the damage Jeremy Corbyn, one of the worst party leaders ever who singularly failed to use the Brexit situation to his party’s gain and is too left-wing for most of the electorate, did to the party was pretty immense.

I would like to see the Lib Dems go from strength to strength. The effective two party system and FPTP has not served the UK well in the 21st Century.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118337892#Comment_118337892

The Lib Dems going from strength to strength didn't exactly do the country much good the last time. Problem is that unlike Labour in Ireland the Lib Dems won't go into government with UK Labour so can only slow and not stop the Tories or ever be true kingmaker's

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118337892#Comment_118337892

I think he's entered terminal decline now. Much hinges on how Christmas pans out for many people but the corruption, venality and disdain he and others in government have shown for the people of this country won't be forgotten. Even if it transpires that no further measures beyond the vaccine passports are needed to manage Omicron, there's nothing on the horizon but more quagmires, namely covid restrictions and issues stemming from Brexit.

BonnieSituation

His interview with Sam Coates on Sky was a disaster.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1471827747240566785?s=20

Hopefully this is the end...

Kermit.de.frog

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y2gvtKWtZBw

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118337933#Comment_118337933

In a bad election the Lib Dems only produce DUP numbers. And the DUP can be bought.

The SNP are better placed to be kingmakers. But only for the ultimate prize. Which BTW would produce a Tory majority for the next election or two unless Labour get there first and introduce PR. And if Scotland go there's £500m a week that could be spent on the NHS from the NI subvention. That's a lot of PPE contracts.

What has Boris got to lose ?

Are party members looking for Boris to behave instead of looking for his head ? A week is a long time in politics and it looks Boris will continue through the pantomime season.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342845#Comment_118342845

SNP will never go into a coalition with the Tories in the same way LD won't go in with Labour. It's too toxic to their voters even if it meant indyref 2

thomasj

Two stories tonight

Frost the chief Brexit negotiator has resigned , and that Tory WhatsApp chat leaked

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1472331053775958016?t=5IMXmle-IReQPEW6VWLoiA&s=19

Kermit.de.frog

Not satire apparently, it's real.

mariaalice

Is Lord Frost one of the nuts that believe the UK can be Singapore and keeps repeting.. Low tax, light touch over and over again a true believer or is he just a cynical rat abandoning a sinking ship.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118342861#Comment_118342861

"But only for the ultimate prize." I didn't mean just a referendum.

It would be inconceivable after the Tories completely undermined the Alternative Vote , Indyref, and Brexit referendums.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118345006#Comment_118345006

Resignation of Brexit minister led to fevered online reaction – and blue on blue fire in a Tory chat group .. as revealed by Sky News’s Sam Coates.

“Lord Frost is one of the most disciplined, focused, and strategic individuals I have ever met. A formidable brain but also a leader who, with Oliver Lewis, brought together talented officials to deliver the impossible. He has nerves of steel and somehow gave us faith to wait.”

• Nikki da Costa

"Mr Lely, I desire you would use all your skill to paint my picture truly like me, and not flatter me at all; but remark all these roughnesses, pimples, warts and everything as you see me, otherwise I will never pay a farthing for it."

• attributed to Oliver Cromwell

Toeuptony

Get your butter (and jam / marmalade) at the ready! More damning evidence.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/19/boris-johnson-and-staff-pictured-with-wine-in-downing-street-garden-in-may-2020

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118348728#Comment_118348728

All these parties require a decent amount of logistics and having worked in hospitality in London I know full well that they are 90% staffed by people on minimum wage who hate the Tories.

Colossal amounts of hubris to thing they won't be leaked or the paper trail exposed

Annasopra

Appointing Liz Truss to negotiate Brexit may just be a master stroke. Takes her away from thinking about the leadership. If it goes well he can claim the credit. If it goes belly up he can blame her.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363981#Comment_118363981

If she had brains she could quit close to leadership contest (local elections are in May) and blame Boris for tying her hands. The trick is to be vague enough to convince the ERG that she could have been more anti-EU while letting everyone else think she was forced to be anti-EU.

Or she ask the EU for a concession on the QT and publicly makes lots of noise and bluster about driving a hard deal, later on signing whatever the EU give hear and announce the great deal on "blue cheese". Near zero effort on her part as the EU will come up with some facing saving gesture and that gives her loads of time to get ready. - And if it goes pear shaped resign and blame Boris.

If she makes it through the rounds the general members of the party may easily vote her in.

Then again ConservativeHome has stuff like Johnson needs to cede power to a real deputy. Step forward, Ruth Davidson so it could be interesting.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118363981#Comment_118363981

There is no negotiating to be done really. The deal is signed