Acceptable Covid death rates

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089417#Comment_118089417

I'm fine with all that. But it won't bring the death rate to zero, so are you now saying that the resulting death rate from these measures is acceptable?

Edit: actually I'm not fine with all that. social distancing is a nicely euphemistic term for cutting all close personal contact and I absolutely won't agree to that. I was happy to do it for a long period, but not any longer.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089219#Comment_118089219

10% is an extremely conservative upper estimate, had you read the article or studies you would have seen the likely figure from most studies was 1-2%.

Standing in a queue is not much different to being in a building site puffing and panting on other people when doing joint-lifts.

As to your question, yes I probably would if it was outdoors and they werent coughing and spluttering.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088700#Comment_118088700

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088700#Comment_118088700

I was in London this week , nothing like the level of mask covering here or requests for covid vaccination certs etc , we really are an outlier

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089496#Comment_118089496

I'm not being smart but I wouldn't be looking towards the UK for guidance on anything to do with the pandemic Max. Their numbers are worse than ours and their health people are making noises about needing a Christmas lockdown. I would prefer to look towards the continent to pick out the countries that are keeping control of their numbers and see what they are doing differently

seamus

@eagle eye wrote:

Now we've got a virus that won't say no and we've got to do everything we can to eliminate it.

Once you catch up with the rest of the planet and accept that covid cannot be eliminated, then what? What's your plan?

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089496#Comment_118089496

They are very much the outlier in this, not us.

Of more interest will be what happens in Denmark

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089280#Comment_118089280

And yet some people understand that unless we place wholly unreasonable restrictions on people, some death and injuries are inevitable and are part of the cost/benefits of having automobiles.

This is the point of this thread. What is the acceptable level of risk with covid?

People who have a fetish for controlling others say that only zero deaths are acceptable. Others are more reasonable.

You'll probably struggle with this too. But I forgive you.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089432#Comment_118089432

Podge, I wouldn't advocate cutting contact to zero. I do however find it a little annoying that some people won't even make a simple effort to get the easy wins. Wearing a mask on a bus or train while we are still in a pandemic shouldn't be controversial. I think that if everyone did the easy things then we could actually open up some other things, or at least keep them open, more easily.

Suppose we agree that it is acceptable for a person to spend one hour in close contact with others on a night out. Do you want to waste 20 minutes out of that hour packed up against randomers in a queue or would you prefer to keep the full hour for dancing and having the craic inside? Lets all be reasonable and prioritize.

Determining what is an acceptable level of deaths, and developing health structures based on that analysis, is the very definition of what ‘public health’ is all about. Very different to looking at health from an individual perspective

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089555#Comment_118089555

Well I think putting a time limit on a night out is fairly pointless in the first place. And I think the queue is the safer location.

Conceptually I largely agree though. We should be sensible and do as many "easy" measures as possible. But this brings us back full circle to the OP - because even with your reasonable measures we are going to have deaths. And there will be available measures that would lower them but it has been decided not to take them. I agree with the decision but it is in essence an acceptance of a certain level of risk of death from Covid.

Banal platitudes like "no death is acceptable" aren't really all that helpful or productive.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089513#Comment_118089513

mainland EU countries dont nor did not have the level of restrictions we had until very recently either

we were neurotic in our reaction for so long

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089583#Comment_118089583

anyone who makes statements like " no deaths are acceptable " should sell most of their possessions and give the money to a starving village in Africa as we tolerate death from hunger every minute

c.p.w.g.w

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118084226#Comment_118084226

Same can be said of alcohol, prescription medications, sugar, highly processed foods, night shift work

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089587#Comment_118089587

No, but they appear to have much better adherence to public health measures. I had a friend visit over the Summer who was very surprised to see that people here were mainly wearing cheap disposable masks because back home they had to wear masks that were up to a certain quality. And was also surprised to see people openly flouting rules without being pulled up on it. That was from someone coming from a country that has much lower levels than here and actually returned to regular clubbing months ago.

That compliance is precisely the reason why they don't need the same level of restrictions. They control it through simple, unobtrusive, controls. That is why I posted earlier (maybe on a different thread) that the people who won't do the simple things are people who in reality must want another lockdown. I don't want more lockdowns but I have to concede that it might be the only mechanism to use if so many people refuse to do the simple things.

skimpydoo

I am happy that society is open and all I am asking for is people to have a little consideration for people in my situation. Practice safe distancing, wear masks and wash your hands. Am I asking for too much?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089715#Comment_118089715

I'm perfectly fine with this, is anyone on this thread against these basic measures?

I'm just against further lockdowns.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089417#Comment_118089417

Nice grandstanding. Cheerio

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089715#Comment_118089715

Hand washing, absolutely yes,

mask wearying, in certain indoor places, absolutely yes

social distancing, no. Social distancing is just impractical, if not impossible, in most everyday life. Even in SuperValu it’s not possible, let alone a pub or a bus. We need to let the social distancing concept go and focus on the things that we CAN do

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089245#Comment_118089245

A public footbath is of no consequence to a business that is closed. There is zero legal obligation to look after members of the public, on a public footpath, when your business is not open.

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089724#Comment_118089724

I think masks should be done away with. They shouldn't have been brought in at all.

Donald Trump

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089801#Comment_118089801

Your post is merely telling us that you don't own, or run, your own business.

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089845#Comment_118089845

So Cathal Jackson has to patrol Harcourt Street out of hours, in case anyone may be queuing at his closed business??

Laughable.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089635#Comment_118089635

We have been incredibly compliant here

I see parents at the school gate wearing masks which is totally unnecessary outside, I don't but its me and one other parent

In London, they dont even mask up in shops or on the tube

Multipass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089318#Comment_118089318

It’s not true to say that the target is no deaths - the health system has finite funding, there is always, and always has been a level of acceptable death.Access to new drug therapies, and age limits on procedures are two that immediately come to mind.

Looking at Covid in isolation is not helpful - doing everything possible to stop every single death from Covid causes effects which will cost other lives. I hope you used the word ‘eliminate’ by mistake, because that boat is long gone.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089880#Comment_118089880

I was in Barcelona a few weeks ago, no one was following any restrictions.

That being said, I don't mind popping a mask on. It's a minor inconvenience.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089930#Comment_118089930

No accident using the word eliminate. Ever hear of smallpox? You know what caused it? A virus.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088201#Comment_118088201

exactly and both aren't a big deal in any way.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088203#Comment_118088203

both work well.

actually restricting numbers isn't an infringement seeing as every venue only has a certain capacity anyway which is ultimately a restriction, and i believe that restriction can be enforced by law if it is found that a venue is over it.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090368#Comment_118090368

Ever hear of the common cold? flu? RSV?

Smallpox was caused by a virus and it was eliminated, therefore all viruses can be eliminated is mind-numbingly simplistic and just wrong.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088341#Comment_118088341

with respect theatres, pubs, clubs etc, while they do contribute to the economy, don't make a massive contribution to it.

certainly their contribution is very welcome, but as we have saw the economy has ran fine without them showing us that their contribution is massively over stated.

it is the tech companies, big pharma, and a couple of other industries which keep this country afloat, if we had closed them down but kept restaurants and similar open, then we would be in a very bad economic situation.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090411#Comment_118090411

You beat me to it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089880#Comment_118089880

I live in London. This is a lie. It's optional in shops and mandatory on the tube.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118088728#Comment_118088728

the countries that never shut down absolutely did have a ridiculous number of deaths and ended up s//t shows, brazil, parts of america, sweden eventually had lock downs because of defiance of the government.

other countries that are now open with little to no restrictions either had harsher restrictions then we could ever dream of meaning they are doing well, or are just continuing as they always have been and doing badly.

i am glad i lived in ireland rather then say, italy or spain, or even the uk.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089385#Comment_118089385

he has done everything he can, as have most to be fair, it's a small minority who have been trying to ruin it for the rest of us through out.

the truth is in reality, you actually don't understand what trade offs in public health actually mean, they don't mean what you want them to mean, as in come down on your debunked side of the debate.

actually we do take all measures to limit the spread of all sorts of viruses, the reality is that those viruses don't spread at a ridiculous level and have vaccines for years if decades, so don't require any sort of restrictions on movement, and hopefully the same should happen with covid 19.

we have been balancing the restrictions with all else through out, again it was and is a small minority trying to ruin everything for the rest of us in the aim of trying to implement whatever nonsense agenda they are at, the cold hard reality is nothing is going to be balanced to your specific wants because even with a highly vaccinated country and population your wants arenn't of the necessary good.

Fandymo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089894#Comment_118089894

Cool story. Perhaps you could explain, maybe in simple terms for me (nice personal abuse btw), what legal responsibility Cathal Jackson would have in relation to members of the public congregating on Harcourt Street, a public street, hours before his business opens?

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090411#Comment_118090411

No, it means it's possible and there are many scientists who will spend their whole lives, if they don't find a way, trying to eliminate it. I'd guess more than for any other virus in history. There's a great chance they find a way.

seamus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090368#Comment_118090368

You're partially onto something here, but you might want to dig down into that a little bit further.

Did you ever hear of smallpox? The more dangerous variant of it had a CFR or 30%, was more fatal in young children (up to half of all infected babies died), and about three-quarters of survivors were left with very deep, disfiguring scars. Major complications were frequent, including damaged lungs, blindness and permanent physical disabilities due to joint damage.

Covid, by comparison has a CFR less than 2%, considerably less in children (0.2% or less, less dangerous than 'flu), and the majority of survivors are fully recovered within about two months. Major complications are very rare and typically resolve in 6-12 months with no permanent damage.

That might give you a clue as to one reason why eliminating smallpox was possible, and Covid will not be.

end of the road

both drug therapy and age limits on procedures aren't comparable as they aren't specifically about an acceptable level of death per se, but about effectiveness vs risk and cost and giving potentially false hope to a patient.

crossman47

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118089880#Comment_118089880

The UK is no example to follow. They are prepared to tolerate c. 150 Covid deaths a day (equivalent to about 15 here).

Pdoghue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090689#Comment_118090689

I would take issue with these paragraphs. What is your definition of trade offs in public health. As someone said above, public health by its very definition involves making trade offs!

Secondly, we clearly don't take all measures to limit the spread of all sorts of viruses. For example, we have tolerated flu deaths for years with no restrictions even though we have vaccines. Look at the social distancing measures which we have deployed to eliminate Covid - those measures have largely eliminated the prevalence of the flu over the last 18 months.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090808#Comment_118090808

flue doesn't spread any where near what uncontrolled covid would.

so therefore with flue there doesn't need to be restrictions, all though we should have been educating people on the importannce of hand washing and covering their mouths when sneezing and coughing, especially at this time of year, something most of us have generally managed to grasp back as far as children, but to much of a minority haven't got it in my experience.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090727#Comment_118090727

I'm confident that with all the great minds working on this virus that we'll find a way to eliminate it.

Lumen

I assume the immunocompromised are already protecting themselves by wearing effective masks (not face coverings), practicing good hygeine and avoiding high risk environments.

That leaves them unable to enjoy certain activities that the rest of us can, like being packed into a nightclub, or swimming in a public indoor pool, but those activities are out of reach anyway whilst there is a nasty virus in widespread circulation.

It also means that if we relax mandatory restrictions (including face coverings), the health status of the at risk is effectively public, worn on their faces, and that includes immunocompromised children. That is an extremely regrettable state of affairs.

I do not, however, see the status quo as an alternative. What we have right now is a policy of mandatory mostly-ineffective face coverings, employed as a kind of covid theatre, which anybody with a basic understanding of masks can see right through. You know when you see someone at the supermarket wearing an FFP3/N99 mask that they're most probably either immunocompromised or caring for/living with someone who is.

What might be an effective alternative in some parallel universe of robotic compliance or aggressive enforcement is to attempt to squash transmission by mandating proper masking, temporarily closing down all high risk environments where masking is not possible (indoor dining, pubs and nightclubs), and legally mandating vaccination of all workers and school-age children. But that's just not going to happen in this country at this point in the pandemic, and it probably wouldn't even work because vaccines are not approved for under 12s, the constitution is unlikely to support mandatory vaccination, and people would just gather indoors in private just as they did last winter.

Equally, I see no appetite to give up the largely ineffective face coverings, and no appetite to replace them with effective masks.

So we're stuck in a kind of perpetual grey, drizzly dawn. The at-risk are not safe and the low-risk are not free. After 18 months of this we should understand that half-measures just don't work.

Pdoghue

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090870#Comment_118090870

But flu spreads, that's just undeniable. I think the point is, is that our health service has the capacity to cope with a certain number of flu patients per winter, some of whom die, with no restrictions in society. We have tolerated this level of deaths heretofore, call it acceptable or not. With Covid, the health service is overstretched to the point of collapse; hence the need for extra measures such as social distancing measures.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090880#Comment_118090880

Basically none of these great minds think that is the endgame. The absolutely accepted scientific view is that it will simply become endemic. There is disagreement about whether this was inevitable but at this stage its too late to expect anything different.

eagle eye

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090944#Comment_118090944

Have you links to all these scientists that say it can never be eliminated?

Podge_irl

It’s a beautiful dream but most scientists think it’s improbable. In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come (see 'Endemic future').

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

PeadarCo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090880#Comment_118090880

One of the reasons smallpox was eliminated was because apparently it could only replicate/survive in humans. The challenge with most other diseases is that they don't just infect humans but other animals. So even if you do eliminate it momentarily in humans it can just reinfect humans from other creatures that are suffering from Covid. Which is where Covid came from in the first place.

Eliminating viruses/diseases is very difficult. Smallpox is unique(Polio is nearly there) in that it's been the only virus ever successfully eliminated. Even at that it took a concerted campaign decades to do so. It's a bad example of a strategy to bring up.

Mad_maxx

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118090465#Comment_118090465

whatever , i know what i saw . i was in the natural history museum two days ago , majority of people not wearing masks , i wore one much of the time myself and all of the time in stores

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118091207#Comment_118091207

"Majority not wearing masks in a museum" is different to "nobody wearing masks in shops or the tube"