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Is the jnlr a load of nonsense ?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    As previously explained, the JNLR is a statistic sample report, and as such it is highly complex and well regarded within the statistical science realm.

    Is it a perfectly accurate measurement of listenership ? .... of course not. But it does not have to be. It just has to be accepted by those who pay for it to be undertaken. Remember, it was introduced as the single benchmark definition simply because different reports and methodologies will produce different results. The agreed imposition of a single source survey for the radio industry, has its roots in two different listenership surveys undertaken by pirates Radio Nova and Sunshine Radio in the 1980's, where each station used a different major market research company to undertake surveys at the same time, and they each came up with different results. This caused major questions to be asked within the research industry at the time - if two leading research companies, operating in the same market, at the same time, come up with different results, how can the science and their reputations be trusted?

    The JNLR is not a perfect system by any means, but there can only be one listenership report quoted for all stations and therefore it is the industry accepted benchmark. The only people who have to accept the results, are those who pay for the survey to be undertaken. It is accepted as an imperfect system, but the imperfections apply to all participants and each then has to work to achieve results for themselves, working from within that system. In fact, it is due to the survey results being so focused and detailed, that each station can drill down and find some age group, or gender group, or day-part time, they they can prove to dominate the market in. Who cares about these declarations, is different discussion.

    Is recall recording perfectly reliable? - no. Does the recall system favour bigger and longer established stations? - yes. Do smaller and newer stations struggle to establish themselves on the JNLR? - yes. Are there better and more accurate systems available? - arguably. Would changes to the system be accepted by the stations that have long benefited from their positive results under the current system? - absolutely not.

    So to answer the original question - the JNLR is certainly not a load of nonsense : it is a highly complex piece of statistical analysis work. It may not be the best or most accurate way of determining actual listenership - But .... as long as it is accepted as the imperfect benchmark that it is, then it is doing its job, for those who pay for it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,860 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    Yeah I agree but ... I would like to see them ... why have they on been published recently.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭radiotrickster


    Weren’t they last due in April or May? They must surely be due in the next few weeks



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    The JNLR is conducted as multiple lengthy face to face individual participant interviews - Covid restrictions have had a major effect on data gathering.

    Last publication was Feb 10th 2022 - covering May - Dec 2021.

    https://info.ipsosmrbi.com/assets/files/jnlr/user_information/20-101888-JNLR-Feb'22-Press%20Release-Final.pdf



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,860 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    And restrictions were largely removed since and their publication had been suggested for June I think, but moved, its now 8 months later.

    Have you ever taken part in one of these face to face, or even over the telephone, surveys?


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    There still could be staffing issues in getting people to undertake and process the surveys. There have been many businesses that have yet to resume normal activity levels, because of a shortage of staff. Or maybe the station representative committee has decided that general listenership habits were so drastically affected by the long Covid restricted period that it would be difficult to compare and contrast current results with previous reports, and therefore it might be best to delay the survey so that listener habits revert to a more directly comparable normality? I don't know the exact reason for the delay, but I do know that any, even slight, change to methodology or listener circumstance would cause concern for stations and advert agencies, because of the perceived difficulty in then doing direct comparisons on a 'book by book' basis. The industry overseers do not like any change that they can not plan, control and explain. Covid was/is an exceptional circumstance with exceptional consequences - I am sure there have been significant internal debates in JNLR circles about how results gathered during these exceptional times, should be considered and what relevance they would have.

    I was never interviewed for the JNLR, I was however once a director of a station covered under the process, so I am very familiar with the methodology used. Like with the leaving cert, I still have nightmares about picking up JNLR results books from the MRBI office in Blackrock.

    Radio related surveys conducted by telephone in those days were certainly not JNLR and more likely to be either other market research agencies doing general consumer related surveys and including a radio station preference question in the mix, or radio stations themselves doing 'tracking calls' to see how they might be getting on generally in terms of public awareness level, within their own franchise area. I am not sure if station conducted tracking surveys are still undertaken these days as with most people now using mobile phones, it would be difficult to get a specific coverage area response from random calls made. In the old days, Dublin based land line calls (for eg) could be looked up in the phone book and called quite easily.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,860 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    Well I have only ever taken one face to face interview at home. Do they have a panel?


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭patmahe


    Surely at this point most people under 50 are listening to digital music or podcasts as these provide a means of listening to something you are actually interested in, rather than a DJ asking people to text in their funniest 'I stubbed my toe stories'.

    I occasionally listen to the radio on the way to work (20 mins) but usually only if I've accidentally turned off the bluetooth on my phone and can't be bothered sorting it out. Whenever I have listened to the radio I usually regret it, the quality just isn't there anymore. Sounds to me like the JNLR figures are skewed to make things look better than they are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,883 ✭✭✭JDxtra


    Agree, they are very much skewed to make broadcast radio look better than it is.

    I would say the majority of people under 30 don’t listen at all (by choice). Why would they? Everything you could ask for is streaming or podcasts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    For info & reference :

    JNLR Survey method : https://info.ipsosmrbi.com/assets/files/jnlr/methodology/JNLR%20Methodology%20Report%20Apr'18.pdf

    IAPI statement on why the above method is still considered best for the Irish market : https://iapi.ie/blog/default/jnlr-committee-update

    I am not defending it as a system of accurately recording actual listenership, but the data it collects is scientifically processed and verifiable as per the published methodology. I had many misgivings about it when I worked in radio, but you would need to go to a whole lot more effort than recalling personal anecdotes or quoting general social behavioral preferences, to argue against the JNLR and its findings.

    In my current career I work with young people aged 12 - 25 and my own anecdotal evidence would say that absolutely no one in that age category is listening to the radio - but the biggest regularly undertaken research survey in the country, says otherwise and they have the groundwork generated checked figures to prove it.

    In the end... it still comes back to the same basic fact, it only has to be acceptable to those who pay for it. No one else should get too worried about it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,860 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    In my current career I work with young people aged 12 - 25 and my own anecdotal evidence would say that absolutely no one in that age category is listening to the radio - but the biggest regularly undertaken research survey in the country, says otherwise and they have the groundwork generated checked figures to prove it.

    @Ger Roe Anecdotally what are they listening to? Do they listen to podcasts or is it just music?

    In the end... it still comes back to the same basic fact, it only has to be acceptable to those who pay for it. No one else should get too worried about it.

    People are interested and people are anoraks about this type of thing. For example I am always surprised that the JNLR gets so much attention in the press every six or so months while TAM Ireland's research for TV only gets such attention once year, yet they could provided you with preliminary daily figures if they wanted, and provide monthly details.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    TV viewer research is done in real time through use of a TV connected set top box and the data is uploaded and processed every night. Preliminary, but quite detailed TV stats can be released in 24hrs (for direct scheduled and viewed programmes), although these days there are added complications in calculating total audience over delayed viewing occurring through recording and streaming - this aspect has to be considered and adjusted later (becoming more of an issue as viewer habits and the range of devices used for viewing changes). The are also issues for TV view stats with illegal streaming - just because someone has seen a programme, it does not mean that they saw it on the station it was carried on, or more critically that they saw the adverts that the advertisers and sponsors paid for during its scheduled broadcast. This is one reason why the product placement in programmes approach has developed in recent years - the only way to prove that whenever and wherever you see the programme, you also see the advert/promotion.

    Like the JNLR, the primary function of TV viewer stats, is to prove advertising coverage potential. The rate of change in content delivery models and platforms is making it difficult to see how traditional scheduled TV broadcasting, is going to compete... or survive. The fact that traditional broadcast sector giants like the BBC are investing considerable amounts of money and effort into producing online content, on various platforms, indicates where the market is heading. I don't think today's generation, who already don't listen to the radio, are going to engage in schedule based viewing. I have also asked young people what TV programmes they watch and this has produced puzzled responses. They see lots of programmes, but they are hardly ever viewed as scheduled for broadcast and on a TV. 'TV' to today's generation means, Youtube, Netflix, Disney+, Aamzon Prime, etc.... RTE, BBC etc are historic relics.

    With regard to my experience of young people and their current listening habits ... they seem to be mainly consuming music on youtube and streaming platforms. Very disappointing for a music and radio fan, as they only consume material they are already interested in - there is little scope for new music exposure when you are being fed content by prescribed playlists or established interest associated algorithms.



  • Registered Users Posts: 804 ✭✭✭Butson


    Of course the JNLR is nonsense, but so are all media consumption metrics.

    TV - 1,050 Neilsen boxes is just not a real reflection of the population. You are really relying on the participants to be fully on board also. And until streaming services are properly incorporated, forget about it

    Digital - self governing and release their own figures.

    Back to the JNLR, really its for the advertising industry, nothing else. It may be nonsense, but at least it's the same nonsense for everybody.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    After the very detailed arguments and links provided by Ger Roe, I'm surprised that someone can say "of course the JNLR is nonsense".

    Read the Methodology link, and the IAPI link in post #41. This is a small extract from the IAPI link:

    "Having undertaken a full review, at considerable cost, and having explored international best practice in radio audience measurement, the Committee concluded the current Day-After Aided Recall is best practice for the Irish market at this current time.

    While the Committee is satisfied that Day-After Aided Recall is the best approach for radio in Ireland currently, the Committee is open to considering new ways of collecting the data beyond the current in-home approach, providing the integrity of the JNLR sample is maintained. New approaches to data collection will form part of the JNLR Research Tender 2020 – 2022 for which expressions of interest are currently being sought."



  • Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭radiotrickster


    I wouldn’t agree about nobody under 25/30 listening to radio. There’s a lot of people out there who aren’t on board with digital audio options. I even know a few people under 30 without social media. They rely on radio for their in car entertainment and stick it on when they’re at home and want music.

    I think it all depends on the demographics of the group you’re talking to. Some groups within that age range won’t have an interest in radio and others will still rely on it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    In the latest "book" published 69% nationally of 15 to 24 year olds listen to some radio on weekdays. Much lower in Dublin, and only 17% listen to a RTE station.

    The system does not record data for under 15's.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,843 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The methodology of in person face to face interviews is well laid out in links provided above.

    But and it is a but... how does this match actual practice on the ground?

    I live in the same rural area for 30+ years, I've never heard of anyone being approached about such a survey. People calling to the door selling stuff or other cold calls used to be reasonably common 20 years ago, but rare as hen's teeth now. Even at election time.

    I do however receive phone calls about once a month on surveys relating to finance and business. I helpfully answered one of these calls several years ago, even though it wasn't very relevant. Since them I decline as of little relevance. However clearly I'm on some list of businesses in a certain category that the survey need answers for, so they keep trying.

    That's how these surveys largely work, if I was trying to do repeat face to face interviews in an area, inevitably it has to be that interviewers will head for houses where they've had success before.

    And if you keep asking the same people, the same sort of questions.... well no surprise if you get similar answers.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    16,850 out of what ever number of 15+ people there are in Ireland. Catering for all demographic and geographic divisions. I never got surveyed, but I think the chances of any one of us small number on the thread being included are remote. I never got a call from any of the organisations which are doing regular political polls either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,080 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    What is "some" radio?

    The last time I properly listened to daily radio was in 2005 when my mammy drove me to school.

    I don't know anyone who regularly listens to the radio.

    I have never heard of anyone who regularly "tunes in" to a particular radio show.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Adults Aged 15-24 Table 2: Average Weekday Yesterday Listenership on Page 4. That is what I converted to "some radio", just my choice of words.

    I am seeing a pattern here of people using their own personal experience to decide radio listening figures, and a reluctance to accept the published data.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    To be fair to say that 80% of adults (15+ years old) listen to the radio every weekday does sound very high.

    Even if I heard 80% listen 2 or 3 times a week, I'd think that was high, and that is far more realistic.

    I can't really argue with the data but it does seem strangely high, I know I am only going on my own anecdotal data but among 30 or so close friends and family only a few would listen on any sort of regular basis.

    How do they contact people? House phones? If so surely that leads to issues with the data as so many don't have house phones these days.

    Do they publish any raw data? Interview transcripts or that I'd be curious to see them.

    Is the 80% figure coming from ringing random people and asking did they listen to the radio at all yesterday and 80% said yes?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,119 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    There have been several posts throughout this thread explaining how the JNLR survey is conducted. It is not done by telephone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,843 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    I'm suspicious of a lot of market research based on supposed random interviews whether in person or by phone. The reality is that only some people will be bothered to answer the door/ phone/ email and cooperate and these get known to survey organisations. If you've the gig of interviewing xyz number in certain demographics and yyz of another and so on, it just has to be easier to have a panel of people who might help you and keep hitting them. So it should be no surprise if results change little.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    I have never discussed radio listening habits with anyone in real life. My first reaction to someone claiming to do so regularly with 30 people, is that it is very odd behaviour. But then I realise that I am using my own personal experience to project on to others, and that is exactly what I warned of guarding against.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,205 ✭✭✭cruizer101


    Apologies missed the face to face bit



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Those little changes are probably of great interest to the broadcasters, and has been said the advertisers. Some details like the top 20 listened to programmes make the papers, but are not in the link provided by IPSOS. 18 out of 20 are RTE Radio 1 programmes (last but one survey).

    You have to pay to get the full details: "The Report provides information on all individual stations over a range of demographics and special interest categories. The full report can be purchased from Ipsos MRBI. Tel. 01-438 9000".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭KaneToad


    A sample size of 1,050, if properly selected, can definitely provide a true reflection of the population of Ireland (albeit with a margin of error).

    The JNLR is not nonsense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,843 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    There is a value in polling the same people continuously, to detect changes and that you're comparing like with like.

    But the JLNR survey methodology specifies random selection for polling.

    It'd be interesting if there was independent audit/ verification of how they go about it in practice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭radiotrickster


    I would assume most people hear the radio every day, even if they’re not tuned in to exactly what’s happening. They might be station hoppers and not commit to one station so they don’t consider themselves as people who “listen to the radio.”

    For example, there is a tv show I put on in the background regularly. I don’t really follow it. I don’t consider myself as someone who watches the show but it’s on in the background and I’m still consuming it.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,903 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    If your assumptions are correct then there are millions of radios and televisions wasting electricity. Nobody would suffer if they turned them off. Good scope there for saving electricity when the gas supply is reduced.



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