Interesting articles

sparky42

Even with the draw down of UNFIL, given the gaps in equipment we have deploying into Ukraine with the potential for Russian actions seems like a “challenging” mission. But progress for Veterans and attempts to talk up the budget allocation. Wonder if we will even get above inflation?

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2025/0928/1535736-veterans-day/

roadmaster

Imagine Harris going to the Curragh and saying we have to Many Colonels

https://www.rte.ie/news/us/2025/0930/1536085-us-military/

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123864552#Comment_123864552

that’s the least of what the secretary for hangovers has said, along with Trumps word salad.

Grassy Knoll

https://www.ft.com/content/0b351091-3f82-4f2f-bef2-a52a35f009f2

Very interesting and detailed article here (behind a paywall) in the Financial Times on Ru$$ian activity in European waters inc the Irish sea. That regular visitor to these waters - Yant@r - is mentioned and how vulnerable we are. Specifically it indicates a proxy attack on the UK could be to attack a friendly neighbors connections - i.e. ourselves. These undersea enthusiasts were caught by satellite hovering over a nexus of cable, pipes etc off our East Coast. Clearly the authors here had access to a lot of intelligence reports, informed briefings etc.

My takeaway is there is nothing specially new in this, but clearly the issue is moving from 'cranks' like many of us here, to the center where it is becoming perceived as a greater risk by folks who are paid to take these things very seriously. I'm sure there is a large amount of work underway here to look at this too - inc DF but I do wonder if the necessary level of resourcing is being given to them?

On this point I do detect a greater awareness among folks who do follow the news or current affairs - even casually - of the threat level and our vulnerability. Again people can assume that these things are being 'looked after' by someone somewhere - so this in turn leads to political choices and direction.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123867086#Comment_123867086

I'd agree with you that more "public" attention is being brought to the matter, I imagine behind the scenes the Government is being told loudly and repeatedly about the risks to both Ireland and the wider EU/Global environment, but so far there's still little examples of any rush to deal with things.

It will be interesting come the next EU Presidency though, take a look at the resourse the Danes are mustering for this EU Conference and the assets deployed to support them from other nations, and then think about how we are going to fair with absolutely nothing in counter drone capabilities or wider defence resources. Wonder how many awkward questions might get asked by the other EU nations then?

Larbre34

The whole Catherine Connolly situation is informative.

Political correspondents analysing the first snore fest, sorry debate, are talking about hearing off-the-record "dismay" from people in Labour and the Soc Dems concerning her comments on Germany, EU security, Irish security and the years before the Russian annexation of Crimea and later invasion of the Ukrainian mainland.

I agree that people do seem more informed and receptive about threats to Irish security and the debate around neutrality and the Triple Lock.

I'd be interested to see specific polling questions on those matters as we near the removal of the Triple Lock.

sparky42

Great that you are concerned Micheál, but if there's going to be some increase in security capabilities for the EU meetings, when exactly is the investment going to happen?

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/04/ireland-not-immune-to-russian-meddling-in-politics-taoiseach-says/

sparky42

So, no major leaks before the budget and now the Government has another shitshow to do will, any bets on whether we get above inflation increase in the budget or just fluff?

sparky42

So it's €1.5 billion, interesting that on the list of things funding the NS replacement has dropped off completely both from this and the NDP refresh, so I'm going with the MRV/EPV project finally getting put out of its misery:

Funding for the Department of Defence will increase by 11% to €1.49 billion next year, according to the Minister for Public Expenditure.

This will fund a net increase of 400 defence force members and the creation of 50 new civilian posts, Minister Jack Chambers has said.

Funding will also allow for a number of other measures, including a new Defence Forces uniform, funding to progress maritime security, and the digital transformation of the force.

Money will also be provided for equipment and maintenance projects, and "enhanced recruitment advertising".

Mr Chambers said the Budget funding would also allow for continued reforms arising from the Commission on the Defence Forces and the Independent Review Group's recommendations.

That includes the progression of the Military Radar Programme, the procurement of a modern radio system, the upgrade of Armoured Personnel Carriers and the further modernisation and renovation of military installations throughout the country.

Larbre34

The detailed departmental capital breakdown, under the NDP, has not been announced yet. Most likely won't be until after the presidential election.

As far as I'd be concerned "funding to progress maritime security" encompasses naval capital acquisitions.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123887294#Comment_123887294

I'd bet that's more the payment for the new sonar kit, maybe drop in whatever radar upgrades the 60's get, its telling that the army vehicle fleet renewal gets mentioned directly and we know talks have been happening about that, but radio silence on a project that's been limping along in one form or another for decades at this point.

Either way with such a tiny uplift in current spending of less than 5% growth year on year, its clear that its still lip service to LoA2 and as little as possible to be done.

Markcheese

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123887323#Comment_123887323

5% increase in spending, when inflation is nearly that , and I'd imagine anything involving military equipment is running significantly north of that - how much of the increase in budget will be swallowed just by wage and pension costs alone ..

How ever, it's also not surprising,

There's a presidential election upcoming - if you announced a significant increase in military spending, then it- (a ) gifts Catherine Connolly the election

And (B) , Gets so much media bad press as to make it impossible to implement -

The smart thing would be to carry on as before - modest increases now - and then after the election - when if Connolly wins she's effectively gagged by her office and if she loses she's irrelevant anyway - then you quietly sign up to further spending - ( I'm not sure if our gov would ever do the smart thing )

Larbre34

Inflation is 1.9%.

And the budget figure announced yesterday doesn't include capital. So it is pretty significant.

Capital defence allocations under the NDP won't be published until after the presidential election.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123888660#Comment_123888660

No it does include the Capital Allocation in the €1.5 billion total, with that being circa €300 million up the announced amount from the Revised Summer Statement (though you are right as to what that will fund still unannounced), with the Current Allocation going up €75 million for day to day spending. So not significant at all, not when that's meant to include more recruitment, more reserves and specialists.

Grassy Knoll

Post the budget, its probable worth restating the proposed annual Cap Ex allocation for Defence out to 2030 were published in the NDP review in July. This totals €1.7 bn and will cover both equipment and infrastructural development. There needs to a realism as to what this will equate to – some costs associated with facility redevelopment could probably swallow €0.7 bn of this given what needs to be done (based on costs that were in the public domain a few weeks ago). Of the remaining billion, would radar swallow a third of this amount? What you could possibly see is deposits put down on new gear (MRV etc) for delivery post 2030. The new upcoming maritime strategy you would expect signpost investment in this domain ?

2026 300

2027 340

2028 340

2029 360

2030 360

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123889031#Comment_123889031

You aren't wrong about the numbers in the NDP as of 2025, however the reality is that they are BS, what's planned for LoA2 will easily be more than that, hell the infrastructure alone could swallow that given the suggested plan for the Haulbowline and Baldonnel. Remember the medium helicopter replacement is also meant to be happening within that 2025-2030 time frame and the Army vehicle/weapons fleet, and where did the budget come from for the 145m's, is that already taken from the capital budget or still to come as they haven't been delivered yet?

Even if the NS gets nothing during that time period then the numbers just don't add up, if there is something replacing Eithne at some point in the future that's easily €300+ million. So yeah the pencilled in €1.7 billion doesn't hold water for me, not unless we are actually aiming to limp into LoA1 with a good PR cover.

Grassy Knoll

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123889122#Comment_123889122

Thks - not wrong for the other years either - publicly sourced in Table 6, p 29 of the below.

https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/NDP_Review_document_-_updated_in_use.pdf

sparky42

Just to put some perspective on how likely our capital budget is still badly underestimating the costs of modern hardware, consider the British NMH project which is likely now to only be about 20-30 airframes for about a billion (maybe), so for our replacement “super medium” order of 10/12 its hard to see that being under 500 million. Belgium currently faces a marked increase in costs for their French armour package, https://www.brusselstimes.com/1554180/french-armoured-vehicles-for-belgian-army-to-cost-ten-times-more-than-expected

Even if we assume we don’t make the same mistakes, how likely is it that we are facing multiple billion for a replacement and expansion of the vehicle fleet? Bear in mind we’d face the same issues around munitions and machinery spaces. Even if it’s not the French option (I picked it as it’s the only one we know is being looked at), the other prices aren’t likely to be much cheaper, and likely have the same support costs.

Add in the radar purchase, maybe more sonar units, and the GBAD system whatever that ends up being and the base developments…

Leave out the Navy as that’s a blackhole of nothingness for two decades at this point, but it’s pretty hard to see how the predicted NDP funding meets LOA2 capabilities and timeframe.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123889783#Comment_123889783

such as the need to renovate or build new garages in several barracks to accommodate the new equipment.

Sparky that would never happen under tge DOD watchfull eyes!

Late last year i was told that the Army and suits were looking at a large empty logistcs warehouse in the midlands. I took no notice at the time.

This probably adding 2 and 2 and getting 5000. Hardly the DOD looking for a New Armour shed? Remember the Griffion is actually very high.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123889855#Comment_123889855

oh it’s worse than that, think they have already funded upgrades for the maintenance sheds but they won’t work for any possible option.

Either way it comes back to the NDP is not going to cover whatever we order in that timeframe.

Larbre34

Statement on the budget from RACO

roadmaster

What ever happened with the Cobalt story. A few weeks ago The Journal were saying it was all BS while the UK Times were saying it was true and then the examiner said both media outlets would print there proof but it just seam to die after that and nothing from either waa printed.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123899243#Comment_123899243

Meanwhile now stories about Chinese attempts.

In slightly related news, a long overdue step might finally be happening:

The government is to establish a National Security Authority to safeguard classified information held by the state from spies, hackers, terrorists and organised crime.The new agency will be responsible for grading government documents as top secret, secret or official to control their circulation and determine who can access them. It will operate under the auspices of the Department of Justice, Home Affairs and Migration.The move, announced last week by Jim O’Callaghan, the justice minister, would bring Ireland into line with other EU states where access to classified material is tightly controlled. It forms part of a broader effort to strengthen Ireland’s national security architecture as the threat from Russian and Chinese spies increases.The government has allocated €3 million to establish the authority as part of a €6.17 billion justice budget for 2026. O’Callaghan also plans to double resources for the National Cyber Security Centre to enhance its defence of government networks from malicious actors.The proposed NSA would oversee security clearances and vetting for all personnel with access to sensitive material, as well as the facilities and IT systems they use. Enhanced vetting procedures typically examine a person’s private life, relationships, travel history and finances.“Aspects of a person’s life which they conceal can be used as leverage to obtain information. Personal grudges or ideological sympathies can also make individuals vulnerable,” a security source said.
Vice-admiral Mark Mellett, a retired chief of staff, said a government agency of this type was long overdue. “This is an institution that needs to be established. It’s the correct course of action. We need to take espionage, infiltration and the protection of our national security more seriously.” he said. “These threats are very real. The evolution of hybrid threats has advanced beyond everyone’s expectation. It’s playing out across Europe through drones flying over airports. It’s a growing challenge to the integrity of security in democratic states,” he added.O’Callaghan is expected to introduce legislation shortly to place the new authority on a statutory footing.

roadmaster

With all the governments talk on Gaza would they be willing to deploy Troops as part of a peacekeeping force?

https://news.sky.com/story/how-withdrawal-of-israeli-troops-in-gaza-could-work-and-who-could-make-up-peacekeeping-force-13448075

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123899765#Comment_123899765

They would be beyond insane to even think about it, from numbers, Europe, relationship with Israel, the nature of the "deal", to just our equipment, even if it gets a UN Mandate (which I doubt the US and Israel will ask for), let the US stick its arse into this one if it wants so badly.

Larbre34

And the Arab League. They've all been making nice with Israel for the last 10 years, so they can put their money where their feckin mouths are.

Half the problem with conflict in the middle east since WW2 has been western allies forcing ignorant solutions onto the region purely to keep the proxy balance with Russia.

With Assad gone and Iran castrated, its time the Qataris and Bahrainis and Emiratis and Saudis and Jordanians got off their oil gilded arses and propped up the palestinian territories for long enough, and financially well enough, to remove the raison d'etre for Hamas and Hizbollah forever.

sparky42

Well done to the DOD for a successful stalling once again:

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2025/10/13/new-drone-defences-to-be-fast-tracked-ahead-of-irelands-eu-presidency-next-year/?

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123901340#Comment_123901340

Its not the DoDs fault. How were they to know about the EU Presidency?

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123901618#Comment_123901618

came out of nowhere it did, such a random event.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123901660#Comment_123901660

Could we see the deployment of a Gripen Unit from Sweeden to provide Air Cover during a summit?