Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145240#Comment_118145240

It stops being being a conspiracy as soon as they're used for something other than covid.

Captain Barnacles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145463#Comment_118145463

OK so there is an acceptable risk level then ??

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145250#Comment_118145250

No. It hasn't.

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145463#Comment_118145463

previously you made a point of saying the unvaccinated are at more risk of spreading covid in a short period of time (your attempt to dismiss the household infection study) - but given that unvax/vaxxed share the same peak viral load that should make them equally likely to spread it in the short term outside the home.

You dont know if you'll happen to meet a vaxxed person at the time of peak viral load or not, same applies to the unvaccinated. So in terms of maximum possible instantaneous risk to transmission, its the same in both cases.

Given there are more vaccinated people (& these are unrestricted from entering bars/restaurants etc) it makes it far more likely that a vaccinated person would give you covid, than an unvaccinated person (10 times less likely to meet one in the first place) who managed to sneak into a bar.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145554#Comment_118145554

At some point yes, in Ireland, we'll likely see that next year (again the high vax rates means that only a few are self-flagellating themselves with restrictions), New Zealand aren't at that point yet and will probably take longer than Ireland does, but they have been much less restricted for the majority of the pandemic, so swings and roundabouts.

Captain Barnacles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145566#Comment_118145566

Is this account operated by multiple users ?

That post has actually some sense in it ...

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145561#Comment_118145561

You seem to be fixated on the "peak viral load" finding while trying to ignore everything else (less likely to be infected, clear the viral load faster), I called this out last time and, like clockwork, you're trying to repeat it, why is that?

watchingfromafar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145535#Comment_118145535

You say that but then it will be justified.

Vaccine passes for internal use in Ireland were complete conspiracy in early 2020. Did that stop being conspiracy? Do you have an issue with them now?

Will you have an issue with the expanded use of passes if it happens? What will you do if it does happen?

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145269#Comment_118145269

Lockdown is a restriction on movement. It's that simple.

watchingfromafar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145499#Comment_118145499

2 years ago it was conspiracy to think passes would be used internally. 1 year ago our leaders said it wouldn't happen.

Clearly people have no line at which they won't cross with enough mental gymnastics.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145576#Comment_118145576

"natural immunity" will be highly variable depending on the severity of infection, so not necessarily "better" than a vaccination (there's a good bit of comparative data on it out on the net, or good to discuss on the vaccine thread).

The drop off isn't to 0 (just look at the BBC article for some numbers and it can't be linked through to the paper) so the effect wanes but doesn't disappear. The most visible part of that (and some people will argue about it as we don't know the true value) is the effective drop of R0 for delta from between 4-8 down to 1.1 with minimal restrictions in place, if there is significant waning, we should also see significantly higher cases (i.e. exponential rather than linear growth).

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145561#Comment_118145561

Given there are more vaccinated people (& these are unrestricted from entering bars/restaurants etc) it makes it far more likely that a vaccinated person would give you covid, than an unvaccinated person (10 times less likely to meet one in the first place) who managed to sneak into a bar.

I see nobody addressing this point: re certs. People refer only to risk reduction arising from vaccination, but never refer to probability of infection. Certs are really a joke in this sense. Fundamentally, this lack of basic analysis is why we're in the situation we're in, this winter.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145595#Comment_118145595

Vaccine passports for international travel were expected from early on (pretty much as soon as the vaccine results came out), internal use came about due to delta and you'd argue has been pretty effective both at driving uptake and keeping case counts low while allowing reopening.

I do see them gone from next Spring in Ireland, barring a disaster over winter, there just won't be a need (and yes, it means waiting till spring to see if I'm right or if it is in fact an attempt to control us via vaccinations). But I am covering myself with "barring a disaster" which I get to define when we get there ;)

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145591#Comment_118145591

So if I'm restricted on moving into a pub? What is that? Lockdown?

watchingfromafar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145597#Comment_118145597

Not sure why you are putting natural immunity in quotation marks.

In any case, its obvious the vaccines do not stop the spread enough to justify covid passes

watchingfromafar

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145629#Comment_118145629

Yes I do notice you like to give yourself lots of plausible deniability.

This winter will be a disaster for case numbers (not that I care about them) because the vaccinated will spread covid indoors among themselves.

We are nowhere near the peak.

Jan 10th. Ill put my money on being the top of delta

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145587#Comment_118145587

Yes, I have an issue with them now.

Yes, if there is 'expanded use' I'll have an issue. What will I do if it does happen? Dunno. That's currently a hypothetical.

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145421#Comment_118145421

In Ireland we have a sheepish mentality to anything our supposed betters hoist on us. I know people very worried about where we are headed as a nation and society (not just in Ireland btw) with our inability to discuss issues without being labelled.

Even in the states something as simple as questioning or making fun of the current American president seems to mean you are automatically a Trump supporter. I personally had no problem getting vaccinated but i've as much respect for anyone who decides not to get the jab as someone who does.

These passes may well stay with us forever to track our health status as well as control us and anyone who doesn't think that is a possibility is in complete denial.

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145635#Comment_118145635

Well, that's just ridiculous. No. Before covid, when pubs were closed at 4am, were we all living in lockdown?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145691#Comment_118145691

Well, some might enjoy a lockin after 4am.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145651#Comment_118145651

You have to explain the big reduction in R another way then (or find ways to say that R0 from delta is lower, or spin it that there is enough with natural immunity to cause the effect).

timmyntc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145691#Comment_118145691

Before covid pubs were allowed to open and trade - all summer pubs were not allowed to open and trade. They were locked down for want of a better word.

Russman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145485#Comment_118145485

Yes of course world leaders meet and "compare notes" as it were, or whatever it is they discuss at conferences. And yes we have centralised agencies like the EMA, ECDC, WHO etc etc., which to my mind is a good thing to foster international relations and cooperation. I just can't buy the notion that all these vastly differing governments, mostly democratically elected every 4/5 years, are all gunning for vaccines and vaccine passes the world over. To what end ? Honestly, for me, this all falls down when motive comes into it. Nah, I just just don't see it tbh.

IMO sometimes the easy answer is the right one. A global pandemic, almost unheard of in the last hundred years or so, nobody really having a clue exactly how to handle it, for sure a little bit of groupthink, no doubt about that, and western populations who are largely conditioned to having whatever they want, when they want it, after near on 70 years of relative peace and prosperity since world war 2. We're just not used to being told "no" or restricted in what we can do - and that's a good thing, but honestly I just can't buy that this is all part of a nefarious plan.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145712#Comment_118145712

What big reduction in R?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145788#Comment_118145788

From (delta estimated) 4-8 down to 1.1.

Penfailed

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145763#Comment_118145763

A more accurate term would be 'closed'.

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118144964#Comment_118144964

Yes. Alan Kelly isn't even in Government and he is trying to lay down the law to NPHET re what they can and can't say about boosters.

Whatsisname

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145444#Comment_118145444

Ah the Hermain Caine awards, a subreddit full of people cheering on the deaths of others, the so called “empathetic” people of society who fall under the facade of being so selfless that they’d never dare put anyone above themselves. Where’s Raind to call posters sociopaths when you need him?

bloopy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145944#Comment_118145944

Can't believe people are using that disgusting little hole of a subreddit to justify anything.

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118145944#Comment_118145944

It's an interesting little place where people who thought their actions didn't have consequences, actually have consequences. Each death is a tragedy, seeing husbands leaving behind newborns sons and daughters all because of a wrong headed belief is awful. Hopefully some see the stories and avoid those same tragedies, it's the modern day retelling of the boy who stuck his arm out of the window on the bus and lost the arm.