Relaxation of Restrictions, Part XII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

bucketybuck

Hurrache wrote: »

Yeah, there's a perfect combination as to why we should not listen to anything in that story with regards to health.

Your post is a remarkable example of what happens in this forum.

The article makes some interesting points but you don't actually want to hear them, just dismiss out of hand because they don't fit with the side you picked.

Why not read it and take the points on their own merit instead of just shooting the messenger?

is_that_so

bucketybuck wrote: »

Your post is a remarkable example of what happens in this forum.

The article makes some interesting points but you don't actually want to hear them, just dismiss out of hand because they don't fit with the side you picked.

Why not read it and take the points on their own merit instead of just shooting the messenger?

Given the unapologetic bias some messengers have, sometimes that matters more. There is also our own natural bias to seek out opinions or "evidence" that proves what we think is true, so a lot of bias to filter!

bucketybuck

Sobit1964 wrote: »

Finally, some well overdue discussion of the very real costs of lockdown and restrictions, the sort of discussion thats been roundly attacked by several posters on this thread. The UK is leading Europe on getting real and on with life, Ireland is at the back of the pack.

It is well over a year since I read of one man saying that we "needed to have an adult conversation about death".

It is scary that over a year later we are still not allowed to have that conversation, and scarier again that it is the Brexit Britain of Boris Johnson that is leading the way in having adult conversations about pandemic responses.

bucketybuck

is_that_so wrote: »

Given the unapologetic bias some messengers have, sometimes that matters more. There is also our own natural bias to seek out opinions or "evidence" that proves what we think is true, so a lot of bias to filter!

The three comments quoted in the OP were all perfectly sensible and reasonable, they should generate debate among any honest group. To see them dismissed out of hand says a lot.

Hurrache

bucketybuck wrote: »

Your post is a remarkable example of what happens in this forum.

The article makes some interesting points but you don't actually want to hear them, just dismiss out of hand because they don't fit with the side you picked.

Why not read it and take the points on their own merit instead of just shooting the messenger?

The same Javid, in the commons, said that they're entering into unchartered territory warning that the number of daily cases may rise to 100,000 a day when they lift their restrictions. And bear in mind, the main changes were just around the wearing of masks indoors and public transport, a very small inconvenience but has an exponential benefit.

That's the health secretary that is. His main priority is to limit the economic affect of the wave he's predicting due to their actions, not the affect on those at risk or those yet to be vaccinated.

Floppybits

bucketybuck wrote: »

The three comments quoted in the OP were all perfectly sensible and reasonable, they should generate debate among any honest group. To see them dismissed out of hand says a lot.

It is the way of things over here though. You see it all the time people dismissing articles or comments because they came from a particular media outlet or it was on twitter or some other such medium.

paw patrol

is_that_so wrote: »

You seem to be more keen to be right, an illness of our internet times.

some would claim armchair psychology is also an illness.
so here we are - like the spiderman meme pointing at each other.

except I genuinely hoped I was wrong - that this mess was worth the price.
It wasn't

is_that_so wrote: »

People robustly challenging your posts is not a sign that you were pilloried, more like evidence of a persecution complex.

I wish it was robust challenging but it went beyond that - unless you call people sneering at you that you wanted people to die for a pint - a mild example

is_that_so wrote: »

I'd also add that name calling add nothing to civil and rational debate.

perhaps but it's the internet and not the trinity debating society.

is_that_so wrote: »

I've had my fair share of such challenges but you deal with them and even ignore some of them. After all these are digital people who have no meaning whatsoever in our lives.

I ignored the restrictions from last june -
of course I couldn't command the kids activities to reopen nor the shops but in terms of going places , visiting people and I had access to a shebeen/bar which was nice.
The internet isn't real nor does it have any impact on me but doesn't mean while I'm here I won't call out horsesh1t when I see it.

Sobit1964

Hurrache wrote: »

The same Javid, in the commons, said that they're entering into unchartered territory warning that the number of daily cases may rise to 100,000 a day when they lift their restrictions.

That's the health secretary that is. His main priority is to limit the economic affect, not the affect on those at risk or those yet to be vaccinated.

You didn't read the article then? Maybe have a read of a BBC one instead

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57678942

Why it's time to think differently about Covid

Back in January, about one in 10 infections could be expected to translate into a hospital admission 10 days later. Now that figure appears to be somewhere between one in 40 and one in 50. What is more, those ending up in hospital seem to be less sick, and need less intensive treatment. The risk of death, as a result, has reduced even further. In January about one in 60 cases resulted in someone dying. Today it's fewer than one in 1,000.

But serious illness happens all the time. In the depths of winter there can be 1,000 admissions a day for respiratory infections. Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then. "That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University.

But the idea of letting a virus spread when we have spent so long trying to do the opposite requires a psychological shift.

Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at University of St Andrews, says this will take time. "We need to accept Covid is here. We won't be able to completely stop the spread. We are now at the stage of managing the virus." She would like to see more emphasis now on recovery, tackling the backlog in hospital care for non-Covid treatments, dealing with the economic fallout and loss of jobs and the emotional and mental health toll the pandemic has had.

Once again this excellent article demonstrates a grown up approach to dealing with the virus now and in the future. Once again Ireland remains firmly at the back of the European group, limping and with a gimpy leg.

gozunda

Sobit1964 wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/05/sajid-javid-has-finally-broken-taboo-admitted-lockdowns-cost/

Sajid Javid has finally broken the taboo and admitted that lockdowns cost lives, too


Finally, some well overdue discussion of the very real costs of lockdown and restrictions, the sort of discussion thats been roundly attacked by several posters on this thread. The UK is leading Europe on getting real and on with life, Ireland is at the back of the pack.

The "UK" aka Boris and his new Minister of Health have apparently decided to turn the clock back to March 2020 and let nature take its course and are back to the natural herd immunity theory.

I suspect Boris's usual populist leanings and Sajid Javid background as a merchant banker and a serious Margaret Thatcher acolyte has more got to so with the recent decision to dump all covid controls than any humanitarian leanings or concern about lives tbf.

Looking at social media- it would appear the new minister or his ideas are not necessarily as popular as some would suggest

But to your point on 'real costs' - I believe discussion on that is important and it will likley take years of analysis and real discussion as to balancing the human costs of the pandemic - but that's a thread yet to come.

Red Silurian

Floppybits wrote: »

How long has the delta variant been in the country now? If it has been here for more that 3 weeks should we not be seeing a rise in hospitalisation cases? If the vaccines are working then yes we will see the number of cases of covid rise because don't stop people getting covid but we shouldn't see a huge rise is hospital cases and if this is the case then basically covid should now be treated and like the flu.

Depends how much of the delta is here as well. The Alpha (Kent) variant was here in small numbers in October/November but didn't make an impact on our ICU numbers until January when Christmas gave us an enormous spread

NPHET modelling recon we will see an average of 1,000 daily cases in 3 weeks time so in 6 weeks we will know more about how that has affected hospital numbers, again the modelling shows 250 deaths over the three months as a best case which over 42,000 cases would suggest a 0.595% fatality

Floppybits

gozunda wrote: »

The "UK" aka Boris and his new Minister of Health have apparently decided to turn the clock back to March 2020 and let nature take its course and are back to the natural herd immunity theory.

I suspect Boris's usual populist leanings and Sajid Javid background as a mercant banker and a serious Margaret Thatcher acolyte has more got to so with the recent decision to dump all covid controls than any humanitarian leanings or concern about lives tbf.

Looks like the new minister or his ideas is not necessarily as popular as some would suggestv

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1411588996979900416?s=20

But to your point on 'real costs' - I believe discussion on that is important and it will likley take years of analysis and real discussion as to balancing the human costs of the pandemic - but that's a thread yet to come.

Yes but we have moved on from March 2020 and now we have vaccines that lessen the impact of the virus so we should be moving on and learning to live with Covid like we have done with other illnesses.

brickster69

gozunda wrote: »

The "UK" aka Boris and his new Minister of Health have apparently decided to turn the clock back to March 2020 and let nature take its course and are back to the natural herd immunity theory.

I suspect Boris's usual populist leanings and Sajid Javid background as a mercant banker and a serious Margaret Thatcher acolyte has more got to so with the recent decision to dump all covid controls than any humanitarian leanings or concern about lives tbf.

Looks like the new minister or his ideas is not necessarily as popular as some would suggestv

https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1411588996979900416?s=20

But to your point on 'real costs' - I believe discussion on that is important and it will likley take years of analysis and real discussion as to balancing the human costs of the pandemic - but that's a thread yet to come.

Great to see some clarity on Ireland's route out of this.

Study what is happening in the UK and hope things do not get too bad

Keep an eye on other European countries who are just starting with Delta and hope things do not get too bad

While watching 1 & 2 hope that things do not get too bad with Delta at home.

If everything goes well make a plan on when to open everything up.

the kelt

bucketybuck wrote: »

Your post is a remarkable example of what happens in this forum.

The article makes some interesting points but you don't actually want to hear them, just dismiss out of hand because they don't fit with the side you picked.

Why not read it and take the points on their own merit instead of just shooting the messenger?

Basically yep, dont like the message then just attack the messenger.

Kinda par for the course.

On the flip side if someone dares to attack the messenger ie: Tony or MM then thats just not on, funny that!!!

gozunda

Floppybits wrote: »

Yes but we have moved on from March 2020 and now we have vaccines that lessen the impact of the virus so we should be moving on and learning to live with Covid like we have done with other illnesses.

Indeed. I believe that is the plan. We're vaccinating to beat the band atm so we can move on and get to the point where we will be able to treat covid like other illnesses. As detailed we're not quite there yet and a bit to go with getting remaining at risk groups fully vaccinated. The UKs flip flop policies and horrendous record of managing the pandemic is not a model to follow imho.

the kelt

Floppybits wrote: »

Yes but we have moved on from March 2020 and now we have vaccines that lessen the impact of the virus so we should be moving on and learning to live with Covid like we have done with other illnesses.

Isnt it funny how with over 4.4 million vaccines administered people just keep forgetting about them!!!

Hurrache

the kelt wrote: »

Basically yep, dont like the message then just attack the messenger.

Kinda par for the course.

bucketybuck wrote: »

The three comments quoted in the OP were all perfectly sensible and reasonable, they should generate debate among any honest group. To see them dismissed out of hand says a lot.

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

That's a fascinating stance coming from someone who was sharing tweets from fearmonger extraordinaire Eric Feigl-Ding a few days ago.

Ha, I knew this great bit of hypocrisy would pop up.

storker

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

A digital cert send by post... FFS! :rolleyes:

Now that is funny.

And I'm pretty sure I gave my e-mail address at the vaccination centre.

Floppybits

gozunda wrote: »

Indeed. I believe that is the plan. We're vaccinating to beat the band atm so we can move on and get to the point where we will be able to treat covid like other illnesses. As detailed we're not quite there yet and a bit to go with getting remaining at risk groups fully vaccinated. The UKs flip flop policies and horrendous record of managing the pandemic is not a model to follow imho.

We need to stop counting the number of people with Covid and start counting the number of hospitalisations of people with Covid. All that publishing the number of positive covid cases is doing is causing panic, probably less so now with the vaccine.

growleaves

The "UK" aka Boris and his new Minister of Health have apparently decided to turn the clock back to March 2020

With two surges having hit the population already, two-thirds of the population vaccinated and covid mutated into a much less lethal form they really aren't turning the clock back to March 2020.

Floppybits

growleaves wrote: »

With two surges having hit the population already, two-thirds of the population vaccinated and covid mutated into a much less lethal form they really aren't turning the clock back to March 2020.

Looking at it seems to me that they are moving forward and getting on with living with covid. Turning back the clock to March 2020 for me would be opening up and there being no vaccine. Time to move on now, the vaccines are there, lets just get on with living now.

robbiezero

paw patrol wrote: »

yes , yes it is.


I care cos I was pilloried here and in my PM. and guess what i was right!

What sort of absolute gowl would abuse you over PM?

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

The gym is fine and the other restrictions will disappear over time. The test/cert idea is still under discussion but the hospitality sector really don't want to implement it at all. The expectations there is that it could take quite a while until they do open.

Any chance of a look into that crystal ball.How can anyone be so certain that all these restrictions will disappear. Two weeks to flatten the curve remember and yet here we still are.Meanwhile the rest of Europe has moved on.

Tchaikovsky

storker wrote: »

Now that is funny.

And I'm pretty sure I gave my e-mail address at the vaccination centre.

Sure you didn't provide your fax number?

charlie14

the kelt wrote: »

Isnt it funny how with over 4.4 million vaccines administered people just keep forgetting about them!!!

It`s an impressive number, but it`s not just a matter of how many vaccine shots that have been administered. What really matters is the percentages and who has received them.
As of the 4th July 53.06% of the population have received their first dose and 37.21% are fully vaccinated.

BailMeOut

storker wrote: »

Now that is funny.

And I'm pretty sure I gave my e-mail address at the vaccination centre.

They did say 'Irish people can expect to be issued with the certs by email and by post shortly - with the initial roll-out possibly starting by the end of this week.'

To get a digital cert on your phone you will need to scan a QR code and that will be sent electronically or on paper (in the post).

Nothing wrong with this process.

showpony1

anyone else sell off all their home gym gear? i was about sell my spin bike but now having second thoughts about Tony deciding their is too much risk in winter and closing everything down.

MrMusician18

MOH wrote: »

A slightly younger Tony Holohan front and centre.
At least this slightly explains his obsessive crusade against indoor hospitality a century later

MOH wrote: »

You know there's a "report post" button?
There also wasn't a single such post I could see in the 4 pages preceding your one

It's your own posts that are playing the man not the ball.

storker

Tchaikovsky wrote: »

Sure you didn't provide your fax number?

No I'm all about using the modern technology. When they notify me by e-mail that the digital certificate is ready I'll send a motorcycle courier to collect it.

MOH

Red Silurian wrote: »

Depends how much of the delta is here as well. The Alpha (Kent) variant was here in small numbers in October/November but didn't make an impact on our ICU numbers until January when Christmas gave us an enormous spread

NPHET modelling recon we will see an average of 1,000 daily cases in 3 weeks time so in 6 weeks we will know more about how that has affected hospital numbers, again the modelling shows 250 deaths over the three months as a best case which over 42,000 cases would suggest a 0.595% fatality

Let's not forget that at the end of March Ronan Glyyn told us it would be "a very significant challenge" to keep cases as low as 500-600 per day.

It was just over a week later that the 7-day average dropped below 500, where it's been ever since, mostly in the low 400s, briefly dipping below 300.

And that was based on Alpha, before we'd identified the first Delta case here.
Tells you all you need to know about the accuracy of their modelling.

is_that_so

gansi wrote: »

Any chance of a look into that crystal ball.How can anyone be so certain that all these restrictions will disappear. Two weeks to flatten the curve remember and yet here we still are.Meanwhile the rest of Europe has moved on.

Well, the government want it to happen but will not currently push back against NPHET with their big numbers. We're all watching the UK but it remains to be seen whether data in two weeks will make any difference to that stance, even though what NHPET claimed would cause that surge is now not happening.