So UFOs aren't a theory anymore - but we still don't know what they are

celtic_oz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533592#Comment_121533592

Sorry where did I say that. Feel free to quote me or like King will you suddenly lose the ability to quote.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533455#Comment_121533455

Annoying isn't it. Ask DohnJoe he is excellent at declaring evidence non credible.

So far we have DohnJoe

If however, multiple credible people came forward with a specific claim, e.g. an arm of the government is concealing an "alien spaceship" in a warehouse at e.g. X address in Austin Texas, with specific corroborated details, then we are getting somewhere.

Robinph

would change views if :

Someone who has a history of being truthful and considered a reliable witness on other such matters, probably

King Mob what would sway your opinion ?

robinph

Sorry where did I say that. Feel free to quote me or like King will you suddenly lose the ability to quote.

Are you now saying that you don't belive the claims of Grusch?

Do you believe that aliens walk among us?

Do you believe that aliens repeatedly crash into earth and that the US government has exclusive rights to be first on the scene to collect all the evidence and make it, and the memories and photos of any witnesses to vanish?

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533761#Comment_121533761

Ah OK. So the evidence I presented isn't actually not credible, you were simply declaring it so because you believed that you were mimicking Dohnjoes arguments.

Very strange tactic.

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533796#Comment_121533796

Those questions are too direct I think. You won't receive an actual confirmation about how much he supports Grusch's actual claims.

There'll be some wishy washy stuff about believing that Gruash believes them. Or that they could be true. Or that he doesn't see any reason to doubt the stories. But you won't seen anything to the effect of "I believe they are true."

It's simply a tactic to try and latch onto Gruash's perceived credibility, but without any committal to the nonsense he actually believes.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533761#Comment_121533761

There's no definitive evidence, that's the issue. It's all weak or subjective evidence. Which in the long term works against the theory.

For example, if 20 new pieces of footage of UFOs/UAPs were released tomorrow, we know they would all consist of blurry/unclear footage because that's what the real issue is here, footage/data that can't be identified

Pilots are always going to see things (weather balloons, weather phenomena, drones, etc) that they can't identify at the time. Cameras are always going to capture artifacts, gimbling issues, lens distortions and countless other phenomena that can't be fully identified at the time (or even later). And so on.

The problem is when people leave logic behind and make the leap to "it must be aliens", which has shown it can pervade even the deepest levels of government with someone like Grusch.

celtic_oz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121534566#Comment_121534566

Of course not!

Its only after careful analysis that all your evidence is deemed as non credible. Just ask DohnJoe about his meticulous analysis of UFO based evidence.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121533796#Comment_121533796

Are you now saying that you don't belive the claims of Grusch?

What do you mean now ? it implies I've changed my mind which I haven't, like I said please quote me if you believe I stated ANYTHING other than I believe Grusch could be right. For the moment I'm giving Grusch the benefit of the doubt.

The UFO/UAP story is far too water tight to be brought down by Grusch should he be proven to be wrong (unlikely)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121537116#Comment_121537116

Thats a turn up for the books! DohnJoe waxes lyrical about grainy footage and people announcing aliens. Shocker!

Better evidence is being concealed .. remember the actual conspiracy theory.

emo72

Is Fravor and the other pilot lying? That's proof.

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121541105#Comment_121541105

More bizarre arguments.

So then since we've determined thay the evidence I've shown is credible, we can conclude that Gruash was presenting a false story.

And since you don't believe any of his claims and are only confident enough to tentatively say that they could be true, it's strange that you'd give him the benefit of the doubt.

The fact he's presenting a false story should be a red flag that he shouldn't be given the benefit of the doubt.

It's also very strange that now you're claiming that the case for aliens doesnt require Gruash's claims , yet previously we were being told that Gruash was the best example of such evidence.

If the best you have is a guy who tells false stories and you don't yourself believe, then the case doesn't seem very water tight at all.

celtic_oz

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121542295#Comment_121542295

So then since we've determined thay the evidence I've shown is credible, we can conclude that Gruash was presenting a false story.

This is just self delusion I'm afraid. Your evidence is not credible.

..., yet previously we were being told that Gruash was the best example of such evidence.

When did I say that please quote me, I think I may have said "one of the best examples"

If the best you have is a guy who tells false stories and you don't yourself believe, then the case doesn't seem very water tight at all.

Another example of circular reasoning based on a false asumption, I already said I was giving him the benefit of the doubt, at this stage you are just trolling.

You never said what is required for you to change your mind King .. what is credible evidence in your mind ?

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121542547#Comment_121542547

Ok. So you're back to declaring my evidence is not credible. Previously you were just declaring this because you were mimicking what you believed dohnjoe was doing. You said you had no actual argument for why my evidence wasn't credible.

You're going in circles there.

My evidence is credible. If you don't believe it is credible, you're welcome to explain why.

But now we're being told that Gruash's claims aren't the best evidence. Weird how you are expending so much energy defending him when you don't believe his stories and don't think he's important.

robinph

For the moment I'm giving Grusch the benefit of the doubt.

Why?

There is nothing been produced to back up claims of aliens. Other than humans tendancy to resort to ghosts / God / fairies / aliens when there is something they don't yet understand fully there is no reason to give hjm the benefit of the doubt.

Throughout history though whenever ghosts/ god/ fairies /aliens have been invoked as the explanation, they have never been eventually shown as the explanation. Nothing to suggest that this time it might actually be aliens.

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121542825#Comment_121542825

Because this time it's really real and this guy is the real deal. (Please ignore his wacky beliefs and the false things he claims.)

Gruash, and UFO experts only get the benefit of doubt simply because believers want them to be telling the truth. No other reason. All red flags and issues, and any contradictory beliefs are ignored to preserve this benefit of the doubt.

This seems to be a common thing in conspiracy belief and something grifters exploit it constantly.

silliussoddius

More ground breaking disclosure, I must add that this was initially released as a teaser for a TMZ produced tv show where the money shot of the UAP was behind a coming soon banner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bns_WhNAQM

Butson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593741#Comment_121593741

Jesus - eerie!

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121593741#Comment_121593741

My initial thought was that this is a small stain or smear or splatter on protective glass in front of the gimbling camera taken from a helicopter. And that it's "changing colour" due to the thermal imager switching between objects (and flicking the zoom out from behind the protective glass)

Metabunk are having a look and they suspect it could possibly be a clump of Eid festival balloons in a steady wind (possibly some clear ones, stuff can look weird in black/white night vision)

The problem here (there's always a problem) is the grainy black/white thermal night vision.

Dohnjoe

Update, view from Mick West - probably balloons

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojotsKjshHc

silliussoddius

Disclosure, about the circle jerk that is UFOology

https://www.scientificamerican.com/newsletter-signup/

Hoop66

I am shocked, shocked, I tell you...

Pentagon ex-UFO chief says conspiracy theorists in government drive spending | UFOs | The Guardian

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121683747#Comment_121683747

Gee, almost like we directly called it out.

"Conspiracy theorists working for and within the US government are perpetuating myths about UFOs that millions of taxpayer dollars are then spent looking into, a “self-licking ice cream cone”, according to the Pentagon’s former chief investigator of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP)."

"But many lawmakers, he insists, are only too happy to embrace unsubstantiated stories circulated by “a core group of people” about secret government UFO research programs. Those include startling claims from the former US intelligence official and whistleblower David Grusch last year about intact alien vehicles and non-human “biologics”, or biological matter, stored at a remote facility.

“They’re some of the same people that have been working behind the scenes with Congress to write legislation,” Kirkpatrick told the In the Room With Peter Bergen podcast.

“They’re the same people that worked with a US company and the US army to explore a piece of material that they claim was a UAP and really is a piece of missile casing from the 1950s. They’re the same people that have been influencing some of these whistleblowers who have come forward to say: ‘Hey, I don’t have any first-hand evidence, but all these people are telling me this.’”

And right from the horse's mouth:

"“They’re all relaying stories that they’ve heard from other people. And if you track where all those people know each other, it all goes back to the same core group of people.”

What his team was able to deduce, Kirkpatrick said, was that at least 90% of recorded UFO sightings, including some videos of military encounters declassified by the Pentagon in recent years, have a perfectly logical explanation.

“When you dig into those kinds of observations, and we had hundreds, you go back and work with the pilot, you work with the sensor, and you reconstruct the entire engagement, nine times out of 10 or more that turns into an optical illusion that we call parallax,” he said.

“Most of the times when we can’t give an explanation, it is because there is a lack of data, and by that I mean consistent, solid, recorded data that you can put into a computer and you can do analysis on.”

Even so, Kirkpatrick said, there are those unlikely to ever accept scientific explanations.

“There is absolutely nothing that I’m going to do, say or produce evidentially that is going to make the true believers convert,” he said.

“It is basically a religion, a religious belief that transcends critical thinking and rational thought.”"

silliussoddius

All roads lead to Skinwalker.

Butson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121684087#Comment_121684087

Case closed so.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121690876#Comment_121690876

Or it should be closed to the Skinwalker gang at the very least.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121690876#Comment_121690876

There's no case to begin with, that's the issue.

King Mob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121690876#Comment_121690876

It's not so much something that closes the case, it's a giant glaring issue that believers just won't tackle.

There's never any acknowledgement that their preferred experts might have ulterior motives for exaggeration or outright lying, even when it's very plainly obvious. And when those believers accuse experts who disagree with them of being involved in the conspiracy based on nothing it makes this blank spot in their suspicions even more hypocritical.

It's the lack of any response to this issue and others that really closes the case.

forrestgeorge

Read many years ago that in the late 70's early 80's the pentagon undertook a large investigation into UFO's, can't remember the name of the report, might have been Collins or some Irish name, well any way after years of investigation they came to the conclusion that UFO's are not extraterrestrial little green men, but they are Demonic in nature.

They ended up approaching the Catholic Church hierarchy in NY with their evidence to see what they could share, the Church apparently told them you don't know the half of it an to cease all activities immediately, somewhat spooked they turned in the report to the Pentagon where it was presumably read and locked in a safe.

With all the craziness going on in the world today, I'm now open to the idea that they are Demonic in nature, evil is definitely emboldened these days, as UFO sightings proliferate.

silliussoddius

But as everyone having cameras proliferates good evidence doesn't.

Anyway another report came out yesterday.

Spoiler Warning

Stories of stories in a true believer echo chamber.

Dohnjoe

https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/AARO_Historical_Record_Report_Volume_1_2024.pdf

Unclassified AARO report (issues with the copy/paste but most of it is readable, full PDF report is around 63 pages)

SECTION II: Executive Summary

AARO found no evidence that any USG investigation, academic-sponsored research,or official review panel has confirmed that any sighting of a UAP represented extraterrestrial technology. All investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification. Although not the focus of this report, it is worthwhile to note that all official foreign UAP investigatory efforts to date have reached the same general conclusions as USG investigations.

• Although many UAP reports remain unsolved or unidentified, AARO assesses that if more and better quality data were available, most of these cases also could bei dentified and resolved as ordinary objects or phenomena. Sensors and visual observations are imperfect; the vast majority of cases lack actionable data or the dataavailable is limited or of poor quality.
• Resources and staffing for these programs largely have been irregular and sporadic,challenging investigatory efforts and hindering effective knowledge transfer.
• The vast majority of reports almost certainly are the result of misidentification and adirect consequence of the lack of domain awareness; there is a direct correlationbetween the amount and quality of available information on a case with the ability toconclusively resolve it.

AARO found no empirical evidence for claims that the USG and private companieshave been reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology. AARO determined, based on allinformation provided to date, that claims involving specific people, known locations,technological tests, and documents allegedly involved in or related to the reverse-engineeringof extraterrestrial technology, are inaccurate. Additional claims will be addressed in Volume II. AARO successfully located the USG and industry programs, officials, companies,executives, and documents identified by interviewees. In many cases, the interviewees named authentic USG classified programs well-known and understood to those appropriately accessed to them in the Executive Branch and Legislative Branch; however, the interviewees mistakenly associated these authentic USG programs with alien and extraterrestrial activity. AARO has reached the following, high confidence conclusions related to:

• UAP Nondisclosure Agreements (NDA): AARO has found no evidence of anyauthentic UAP-related NDA or other evidence threatening death or violence fordisclosing UAP information.
• A CIA Official Allegedly Managed UAP Experimentation: The named, former CIA official was not involved in the movement of extraterrestrial technology. The same former CIA officer signed a memo rejecting a claim made by interviewees that he managed the movement of and experimentation on off-world technology.
• Alleged UAP Intelligence Community Document: An alleged 1961 Special National Intelligence Estimate that was “leaked” to online sources and suggests the extraterrestrial nature of “UFOs,” is inauthentic.
• “Aliens” Present During a DoD Technology Test: AARO reviewed informationr elated to an account of an interviewee overhearing a conversation about a technology test at a military base where “aliens” allegedly were observing, and AARO judges that the interviewee misunderstood the conversation.
• Claim That a Military Officer Touched an Off-World Craft: An interviewee claim that a named former military officer explained in detail how he physically touched an extraterrestrial spacecraft is inaccurate. The claim was denied on the record by the named former officer who recounted a story of when he touched anF-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter that could have been misconstrued by the interviewee, though the named former officer does not recall having this conversation with the interviewee.
• Test of Off-World Technology: An interviewee claim that he witnessed what he believed to be the testing of extraterrestrial technology at a USG facility almost certainly was an observation of an authentic, non-UAP-related, technology test that strongly correlated in time, location, and description provided in the interviewee’s account.
• UAP Disclosure Study: Interviewees’ claims that between 2004 and 2007 the WhiteHouse requested a research institute in Virginia study the theoretical societal impacts of disclosing that UAP are extraterrestrial in origin; AARO confirmed the study was conducted, but it was not requested by the White House.
• Named Companies Allegedly Experimenting on Alien Technology: AARO has found no evidence that U.S. companies ever possessed off-world technology. The executives, scientists, and chief technology officers of the companies named by interviewees met with the Director of AARO and denied on the record that they have ever recovered, possessed, or engaged in reverse-engineering of extraterrestrial technology.
• Experimentation on Alleged Extraterrestrial Spacecraft Sample: AARO has concluded that a sample from an alleged crashed off-world spacecraft that AARO acquired from a private UAP investigating organization and the U.S. Army is a manufactured, terrestrial alloy and does not represent off-world technology or possess any exceptional qualities. The sample is primarily composed of magnesium, zinc, and bismuth with some other trace elements, such as lead. This assessment was based on its materials characterization.

AARO assesses that all of the named and described alleged hidden UAP reverse engineering programs provided by interviewees either do not exist; are misidentified authentic,highly sensitive national security programs that are not related to extraterrestrial technology exploitation; or resolve to an unwarranted and disestablished program. AARO created a secure process in partnership with the highest-level security officials within the DoD, IC, and other organizations to research and investigate these programs; AARO was granted full,unrestricted access by all organizations. It is important to note that none of the interviewees had firsthand knowledge of these programs—they were not approved for access to nor did they work on these efforts—which likely resulted in misinterpretation of the programs’ origins and purpose.

• The interviewees and others who have mistakenly associated authentic sensitivenational security programs with UAP had incomplete or unauthorized access tothese programs; discussion of these programs outside of secure facilities presents ahigh risk of exposing national security information.
• One named program was a UAP-related Prospective Special Access Program (PSAP)called KONA BLUE that was proposed to the Department of Homeland Security(DHS) and supported by individuals who believed the USG was hiding off-worldtechnology. The program was never approved by DHS and its supporters neverprovided empirical evidence to support their claims.
• In 2021, without sufficient justification, the scope of an IC Controlled AccessProgram was expanded to protect UAP reverse-engineering. This program never recovered or reverse-engineered any UAP or extraterrestrial spacecraft. This IC program was disestablished due to its lack of merit.

AARO assesses that the inaccurate claim that the USG is reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology and is hiding it from Congress is, in large part, the result of circular reporting from a group of individuals who believe this to be the case, despite the lack of any evidence. AARO notes that although claims that the USG has recovered and hidden spacecraft date back to the 1940s and 1950s, more modern instances of these claims largely stem from a consistent group of individuals who have been involved in various UAP-related endeavors since at least 2009.

• Many of these individuals were involved in or supportive of a cancelled DIA programand the subsequent but failed attempt to reestablish this program under DHS, calledKONA BLUE.

AARO assesses that UAP sightings and reports of these sightings to USG organizationsand claims that some UAP constitute extraterrestrial craft and that the USG has secured andis experimenting on extraterrestrial technology have been influenced by a range of cultural,political, and technological factors. AARO bases this conclusion on the following factors:10• The aggregate findings of all USG investigations to date have not found even onecase of UAP representing off-world technology.

• None of the programs mentioned by interviewees are UAP reverse-engineeringprograms, and all the authentic programs have been properly notified and reported toCongress through the congressional defense and/or intelligence committees.
• AARO has no evidence for the USG reverse-engineering narrative provided byinterviewees and has been able to disprove the majority of the interviewees’ claims.Some claims are still under evaluation.
• AARO determined that a piece of metal alleged to be recovered from an off-worldspacecraft is ordinary, of terrestrial origin, and possesses no exceptional qualities.

Several factors—domestic and international—most likely influenced sightings, reports,and the belief by some individuals that there is sufficient proof that some UAP represent extraterrestrial technology. AARO’s examination of the historical context of UAP investigations from 1945 to the present reveals that these factors—some common to and distinct between the earlier era of UAP investigations (pre-2009) and the modern era (post-2009)—undoubtedly influenced the direction of these investigations, the volume of and spikes in sightings, and the overall public interest, concern, and debate. These periods are divided into pre- and post-2009 timeframe because this is the year of the standup of the Advanced Aerospace Weapons System Application Program (AAWSAP) and Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP) efforts. Prior to AAWSAP/AATIP there was about a 40 year gap in UAP investigation programs since the termination of Project BLUE BOOK in 1969.

• Common contextual factors between earlier and modern investigations include a rapidly evolving and dynamic national security environment, concern about technological surprise, intense secrecy related to government military programs,public interest in UAP, perceived bureaucratic barriers, and the persistent lack of quality data.
• Some contextual factors that were distinct between earlier and modern investigations include: differences in the level of public trust in the government; the large volume of popular culture content related to UAP; the perception within some segments of the population that the USG is hiding extraterrestrial technology; unauthorized disclosures of classified programs mistaken for UAP observations; the proliferation ofonline sources that reinforce these beliefs; the impact that social media has had oncircular reporting; and the rapid spread of misinformation.

AARO assesses that some portion of sightings since the 1940s have represented misidentification of never-before-seen experimental and operational space, rocket, and airsystems, including stealth technologies and the proliferation of drone platforms. From the1940s to the 1960s especially, the United States witnessed a boom in experimental technologies driven by World War II and the Cold War.11

• Many of these technologies fit the description of a stereotypical Unidentified Flying Object (UFO). It is understandable how observers unfamiliar with these programs could mistake sightings of these new technologies as something extraordinary, evenother-worldly.
• Along with these conventional technology research areas, the USG started theManhattan Project in 1942. This program operated in secrecy and led to the establishment of several “secret cities” across the United States to support the development of the nuclear bomb. Any misunderstanding stemming from the intense secrecy surrounding this and similar programs could have been misconstrued for other efforts.

TLDR: no aliens

silliussoddius

A pathetic game of telephone.

KONA BLUE: A Proposed UAP Recovery and Reverse-Engineering Program

KONA BLUE was brought to AARO’s attention by interviewees who claimed that it was a sensitive DHS compartment to cover up the retrieval and exploitation of “non-human biologics.”114 KONA BLUE traces its origins to the DIA-managed AAWSAP/AATIP program, which was funded through a special appropriation and executed by its primary contractor, a private sector organization. DIA cancelled the program in 2012 due to lack of merit and the utility of the deliverables.

As discussed in Section IV of this report, while the official purpose of AAWSAP/AATIP was to conduct research into 12 areas of cutting edge science, the contractor team, and at least one supportive government program manager, also conducted UAP and paranormal research at a property owned by the private sector organization.When DIA cancelled this program, its supporters proposed to DHS that they create and fund a new version of AAWSAP/AATIP under a SAP.115 This proposal, codenamed KONA BLUE, would restart UAP investigations, paranormal research (including alleged “human consciousness anomalies”) and reverse-engineer any recovered off-world spacecraft that they hoped to acquire.

This proposal gained some initial traction at DHS to the point where a 35Prospective Special Access Program (PSAP) was officially requested to stand up this program, but it was eventually rejected by DHS leadership for lacking merit. As demonstrated by the proposal package and by statements from the originator, Senators Lieberman and Reid asked that the PSAP be established with the promise of additional funding.116

The proposed KONA BLUE lines of effort closely mirrored those conducted by the private sector organization for AAWSAP/AATIP.KONA BLUE’s advocates were convinced that the USG was hiding UAP technologies. They believed that creating this program under DHS would allow all of the technology and knowledge of these alleged programs to be moved under the KONA BLUE program. The program would provide a security and governing structure where it could be monitored properly by congressional oversight committees. This belief was foundational for the KONA BLUE proposal, based on the proposal documents and several interviewees who have provided the same information to AARO and Congress.117

The Oral History Initiative section of the KONA BLUE proposal was to collect data:“…from an already identified and calibrated list of retired, previously highly placed government, armed services, contractor and intelligence community individuals. The oral history project will include gathering all information pertaining to the location of advanced aerospace technology and biological samples, including records, files, reports, photographs, as well as physical samples.”118

It is critical to note that no extraterrestrial craft or bodies were ever collected—this material was only assumed to exist by KONA BLUE advocates and its anticipated contract performers. This was the same assumption made by those same individuals involved with the AAWSAP/AATIP program. The SAP was never approved or stood up, and no data or material was transferred to DHS.119•

KONA BLUE was not reported to Congress at that time because it was never established as a SAP and, therefore, did not meet the threshold for congressional reporting. However, the Deputy Secretary of Defense provided a Congressional Notification concerning the program when it was identified in the spirit of transparency.

Dohnjoe

Mortifying embarrassment for Grusch.

silliussoddius

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121898036#Comment_121898036

I think he was led along by the Skinwalker gang, the usual suspects are still talking about "first hand" accounts. Surely the any day now disclosure will wear thin.