Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

is_that_so

CoisFharraige wrote: »

This is a quick plea to remember to pull ourselves back a bit. At times like these with the hysteria and herd mentality around speaking with disdain (to put it mildly) about NPHET and Dr. Holohan, we need to remember what the statistics show and say. (I am not pro or anti NPHET and co.)

We're now (according to the six-one) at 43% fully vaccinated for adults. This means that 57% of the adult population is not yet vaccinated. In a few weeks, there will be a very low chance of COVID affecting the unvaccinated as they will all be in the younger cohort. At the moment, the risk is still relatively high, as 60-69 year olds are still far off being fully vaccinated.

If we go forward to the end of August when we could have 80% of the adult population vaccinated, we will still see virus breakthroughs of the vaccines. In a population of 4.9m, even if only 1% of the vulnerable saw a virus breakthrough (let's say a conservative estimate of 300,000 vulnerable people in the population), you could see 3,000 serious cases possible leading to death. Remember as well - a 90% uptake means 10% of those vulnerable people are completely unvaccinated (!)

These stats are not useful for gauging the impact on the country quantitatively, but in a qualitative sense, virus breakthroughs will happen, cases would skyrocket with the country opened more, and that will lead to more hospitilisations. The virus is dangerous and is going to spread rapidly over the coming weeks, we can't deny that. HOWEVER, as we become more protected, the virus' threat will begin to subside. The problem is that we're still 4-6 weeks from that.

Except they are not talking about vaccinations at all and you seem to be imagining it's about this pause, it's really not. It's the lack of any certainty and the potential for those frankly ludicrous projections to stall other plans. On top of that the abuse that the CMO and others are getting is because their recommendation not only attempts to rewrite government policy with an unquestionably discriminatory proposal but it also masks a determination to keep one sector closed for at least another 4 months.

Stheno

cheezums wrote: »

nordies at it again. what do they be at ffs?

Pinting in Derry

is_that_so

wadacrack wrote: »

Theirs going to be a very bad wave in Europe by late August. Many countries are going to face deaths that could be worse than January.

The latest ECDC situation report does make for good reading.

So why are we bothering vaccinating if loads more are going to die?

TheDoctor

RTÉ cranking out the fear articles as we hit the 5000.

Main story of a young, healthy 72 year old man with “a number of underlying conditions” who passed from covid.

If it could happen to him it could happen to anyone.

FishOnABike

bodhrandude wrote: »

A mad difference between Wexford and Waterford and them right next to each other.

Similar to the spike in cases in Wexford last December, just the other way around. Approx 200 cases in the last week or so, all connected to a cluster in West Waterford.

All goes to show the continued need to avoid large social gatherings and the need for ongoing testing and observing quarantine + self isolation advice.

Cork2021

TheDoctor wrote: »

RTÉ cranking out the fear articles as we hit the 5000.

Main story of a young, healthy 72 year old man with “a number of underlying conditions” who passed from covid.

If it could happen to him it could happen to anyone.

Oh and 7 things we learned from the NPHET briefing as we head towards a fourth wave!

Surf boards at the ready!

wadacrack

is_that_so wrote: »

So why are we bothering vaccinating if loads more are going to die?

Vaccination rates aren't high enough yet, unlikely to be by late August in many European countries.

Here we might be ok but the vaccines aren't perfect

Tyrone212

I wouldn't surprised if they called for more restrictions if numbers take off like Scotland. I'm not for that, I'm just saying IMO I wouldn't rule it out happening .

shockframe

It's incredible right at the moment the primary schools close suddenly it was inconvenient for hospitality to reopen and then the everyone could get long covid articles come racing to the surface.

One could almost be forgiven that there was a hidden agenda at play!

NoLuckLarry

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I wouldn't surprised if they called for more restrictions if numbers take off like Scotland. I'm not for that, I'm just saying IMO I wouldn't rule it out happening .

Case numbers are irrelevant now, there could be 10k cases a day and it wouldn’t mean ****. Tony forgot to mention that Scotland has a horrifying total of 16 people in ICU while he was hyping up the doom.

Goldengirl

the kelt wrote: »

Or ye could just look 100 miles across the sea at the uk today with 28k cases and a whopping 22 deaths.

But sure yeah, Russia, India etc etc

My original post was just that , but din't let that get in the way of your rant .

Sweet.Science

I didn't watch any of it

I can guess when questioned he got annoyed and doubled down on everything

'you guys are lucky to be leaving your homes if I'm being honest'

Polar101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

By the sounds of it he may have flagged it with Donnelly, what or how much of it he told the rest of cabinet before Monday would be up for debate

From the way they behaved, Donnelly either forgot to bring it up or no-one listened to him when he did.

eagle eye

Has there been any recent update on the numbers who have died in the UK from the delta variant?
I think it was June 21st when it was 50 of 117 confirmed delta variant deaths were fully vaccinated people.

shockframe

The announcement of 5,000 covid deaths I found interesting.

The 2018 figures recorded 31,000 deaths.

Measured against each other that would amount to roughly 1 death in 8 being a covid death. The same 2018 figures had 14% deaths a result of respiratory issues.

Chances between slim and none of course but surely the time has come for someone in MSM to start highlighting areas like this?

feelings

We're all thankful that the 9 euro meal kept covid away last summer, maybe they should just double it to 18 euro? Keep the delta away.

Goldengirl

is_that_so wrote: »

It strikes me that we have a more mobile version in mind and we have something like that in pop-ups anyway. The government want to open hospitality and don't like the discriminatory digital cert and they like even less that NPHET are forcing them into it. If there are other options they will take them.

The only other option is not allowing anyone indoor hospitality then , until numbers vaccinated are complete .
Question is which will happen first .

kieran26

wadacrack wrote: »

Vaccination rates aren't high enough yet, unlikely to be by late August in many European countries.

Here we might be ok but the vaccines aren't perfect

Nobody said they're perfect. As vaccines go they're highly effective and they are the only way out of this mess.
NPHET the government and the media need to start accepting this. This madness cannot go on forever.

iamwhoiam

TheDoctor wrote: »

RTÉ cranking out the fear articles as we hit the 5000.

Main story of a young, healthy 72 year old man with “a number of underlying conditions” who passed from covid.

If it could happen to him it could happen to anyone.

Last February !

MerlinSouthDub

So everyone was shocked by the NPHET projection that over 2000 people would die in the 4th wave in a worst case scenario with pubs open. Last year the worst case scenario was tens of thousands of deaths. We've come a long way.

If someone had told us last year that the worse case outcome was 2000 or so deaths, what would we have done? Lock down or let it happen? It would definitely have been the latter.

I don't want anyone to die unnecessarily but there is a legitimate question to ask on the balance of letting people live their lives versus restrictions. 2000 deaths is about 6% more deaths than we get in a normal year. The transmissibility of the delta variant might mean it is literally impossible to stop it spreading, so all lockdowns will do is damage people's lives in other ways.

Anyway, the decisions we have to make now are extremely difficult. Last year, it was easy, any policy other than lockdown would have caused a horrendous number of deaths. Now, the balance is much trickier. The language from the CMO yesterday about keep hospitality closed "beyond September" showed no understanding of the economic and societal impact of that approach. I don't know the right answer, but I wonder what the CMO's limit is. Would he lockdown to save 100 lives, 50 lives, 10?

duffman13

CoisFharraige wrote: »

This is a quick plea to remember to pull ourselves back a bit. At times like these with the hysteria and herd mentality around speaking with disdain (to put it mildly) about NPHET and Dr. Holohan, we need to remember what the statistics show and say. (I am not pro or anti NPHET and co.)

We're now (according to the six-one) at 43% fully vaccinated for adults. This means that 57% of the adult population is not yet vaccinated. In a few weeks, there will be a very low chance of COVID affecting the unvaccinated as they will all be in the younger cohort. At the moment, the risk is still relatively high, as 60-69 year olds are still far off being fully vaccinated.

If we go forward to the end of August when we could have 80% of the adult population vaccinated, we will still see virus breakthroughs of the vaccines. In a population of 4.9m, even if only 1% of the vulnerable saw a virus breakthrough (let's say a conservative estimate of 300,000 vulnerable people in the population), you could see 3,000 serious cases possible leading to death. Remember as well - a 90% uptake means 10% of those vulnerable people are completely unvaccinated (!)

These stats are not useful for gauging the impact on the country quantitatively, but in a qualitative sense, virus breakthroughs will happen, cases would skyrocket with the country opened more, and that will lead to more hospitilisations. The virus is dangerous and is going to spread rapidly over the coming weeks, we can't deny that. HOWEVER, as we become more protected, the virus' threat will begin to subside. The problem is that we're still 4-6 weeks from that.

I would have been fairly Pro NPHET up until the last few weeks, this has changed due to stance on Antigen testing and restrictions being extended.

44% are fully vaccinated and 67% have one dose. By end of July 70% of the adult population will be vaccinated. PHE reports states that vaccination can help stopping spread. Its all logical. Your 1% vaccine breakthrough is based on 100% of the population being infected, that is not going to happen. Vaccines help limit the probability you will come in to contact with someone spreading the virus. Figures on it are difficult to quantify as per the PHE report.

The last point is, we are always going to have spread of the virus, we do need to learn to live with it like we live with flu and other seasonal illnesses. The vaccines are very effective but at some point we have to get some normality.

funnydoggy

Some people have lost their rational thinking abilities.


Someone on reddit Ireland said there will be people gasping for air on the streets. Jesus

CoisFharraige

is_that_so wrote: »

Except they are not talking about vaccinations at all and you seem to be imagining it's about this pause, it's really not. It's the lack of any certainty and the potential for those frankly ludicrous projections to stall other plans. On top of that the abuse that the CMO and others are getting is because their recommendation not only attempts to rewrite government policy with an unquestionably discriminatory proposal but it also masks a determination to keep one sector closed for at least another 4 months.

Sorry, I've read your post over a few times and can't understand what you mean there. In my post, as I said, I'm trying to put across my point of view which is that we need to remember there is a level of risk there (I'm not saying it's a level of risk we can't live with). I also said in my post that I am neither for or against NPHET/Holohan - I don't see them attempting to rewrite government policy. They give advice and recommendations on what the government can and should do to minimise the amount of deaths. There is a stark difference there. If it seems like that to you, that's because they need to give it to the government plain and simple - the government aren't experts in that area (as well all know!) and hence this stuff needs to be put to them in a way which can seem like an attempt to intervene in government policy. It's strong advice, but not what you're trying to portray.

harr

The government propaganda machine in full flow today on all news outlets even wheeling out families of people who have died with covid. It’s so blatantly obvious after the public backlash this week .. can we even trust anything they are saying anymore.
I was all for restrictions when needed and played my part but after being constantly told vaccinations were the answer to opening up ( they are ) I now feel they are making a mockery of everyone who played their part over the last year and a half.
No vaccines last summer yet no issues going to pub/restaurant for Dinner and a couple of pints.

TheDoctor

funnydoggy wrote: »

Some people have lost their rational thinking abilities.


Someone on reddit Ireland said there will be people gasping for air on the streets. Jesus

Is the Dublin marathon back this year?

zuutroy

The fact that we've gone from sunshine and lollipops to end of days projections in a matter of week means that they are doing a really bad job, regardless of which of the polar positions turns out to be right or wrong.

CoisFharraige

zuutroy wrote: »

The fact that we've gone from sunshine and lollipops to end of days projections in a matter of week means that they are doing a really bad job, regardless of which of the polar positions turns out to be right or wrong.

I agree. It was all happy days from them a few weeks ago at the NPHET briefings. In the past few days, it has come down like a brick out of the sky. The only reference has been a "dark cloud on the sky" from Dr. Nolan.

Goldengirl

Deleted User wrote: »

No doubt Tony Holohan has lost the plot over the last few days. There should be question marks at this point about whether he is in the right frame of mind to be at work.

He wasn’t going to allow hospitality until late September earliest. 700000 cases…

Lockdown in winter with everyone vaccinated…

Time for someone to put him back in his box.

After he spoke Ronan Glynn jumped in to say that they don't want a headline out there saying they said there would be further lockdown and restrictions because they are not saying that .
What Holohan said was in reply to a leading question by that Gabby one from the Indo who is nothing more than a rabble rouser at this stage .
Along with others here who are running with this ridiculous statement .
As both said they don't know , as in the pandemic has caught everyone on the hop on more than one occasion so they can't say never .
But how likely is that to happen , when everyone here is vaccinated or as near as, with four great vaccines ?

Zebra3

TheDoctor wrote: »

Is the Dublin marathon back this year?

No decision yet.

Such a sorry state of affairs that we can’t even give the go ahead for an outdoor event almost FOUR months away.

shockframe

duffman13 wrote: »

I would have been fairly Pro NPHET up until the last few weeks, this has changed due to stance on Antigen testing and restrictions being extended.

44% are fully vaccinated and 67% have one dose. By end of July 70% of the adult population will be vaccinated. PHE reports states that vaccination can help stopping spread. Its all logical. Your 1% vaccine breakthrough is based on 100% of the population being infected, that is not going to happen. Vaccines help limit the probability you will come in to contact with someone spreading the virus. Figures on it are difficult to quantify as per the PHE report.

The last point is, we are always going to have spread of the virus, we do need to learn to live with it like we live with flu and other seasonal illnesses. The vaccines are very effective but at some point we have to get some normality.

NPHET will require a name change once this has passed like FAS.