Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

is_that_so

rusty cole wrote: »

you know what the hilarious part is?? they have dozens of highly paid ADVISORS!!!! jesus christ.. on what do they advise? red or white wine? chicken or fish??

the ineptitude is Bidenesque at this stage.

The 80:20 rule applies to data as well. Too much just confuses people. In an effort to cover all bases you create less understanding of what the key data is.

OwenM

gral6 wrote: »

I really hate FF and mehole after this covid mess.

I've never liked FF, either on a local or national level. Haughey, Ahern, Cowen, both Lenihans... but Micheal Martin is the perfect storm of the wrong person at the wrong time, a dithering indecisive coward just when he could do the most damage by not doing anything, hiding behind reports and experts

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm struggling to understand how a party led by somebody who attended a packed funeral in Northern Ireland in the middle of covid could benefit from anything.
Can you explain why people would see a leader like that as better than the current group of failures that are our government?

You've answered the question yourself - they are not in government. Ever since the Spring Tide people have been looking for a left alternative; SF are just the latest probable heroes. Populism buys votes , Jack Lynch, Bertie and pretty much every party in 2007 have bought our souls so SF wanting to do so is nothing new.

is_that_so

OwenM wrote: »

I've never liked FF, either on a local or national level. Haughey, Ahern, Cowen, both Lenihans... but Micheal Martin is the perfect storm of the wrong person at the wrong time, a dithering indecisive coward just when he could do the most damage by not doing anything, hiding behind reports and experts

Of his own making to an extent, he wanted to go first. Leaving Leo there would have allowed him to learn what not to do. Being innately cautious doesn't help with a less than able team with him.

Loafing Oaf

celt262 wrote: »

I agree that Sinn Fein will benefit from all this but as the main opposition party they have let down anyone who has voted for them with their silence.

They have been in broad agreement with the thrust of NPHEt/government policy throughout the pandemic; most of their criticisms have been about 'process'. Do you think they should be taking a more distinct line purely because that's their duty as the 'leaders of the opposition'?

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

They have been in broad agreement with the thrust of NPHEt/government policy throughout the pandemic; most of their criticisms have been about 'process'. Do you think they should be taking a more distinct line purely because that's their duty as the 'leaders of the opposition'?

Most of those processes have been constrained by our circumstances anyway. It's that bloody nose thing Opposition parties do. At least it's curtailed their enthusiasm for numpty votes of confidence!

eeepaulo

Are there any figures if long covid is associated with serious illness or can mild / asymptomatic people get it too? And does the vaccine alter the chances?

Multipass

The percentage figures for vaccine become less and less relevant, once all of the over 60s have completed theirs. 50% makes it sound like we’re only halfway there, when the fact is than more than 99% of people likely to die will at that point be vaccinated. That should be the end of restrictions.
Waiting for some magic number is a fools game, as there’ll be a lower uptake anyway the lower the age range.

Goldengirl

Multipass wrote: »

The percentage figures for vaccine become less and less relevant, once all of the over 60s have completed theirs. 50% makes it sound like we’re only halfway there, when the fact is than more than 99% of people likely to die will at that point be vaccinated. That should be the end of restrictions.
Waiting for some magic number is a fools game, as there’ll be a lower uptake anyway the lower the age range.

Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable.
Obviously they are the most at risk, but all ages are at risk just at a lower level.

eeepaulo

eeepaulo wrote: »

Are there any figures if long covid is associated with serious illness or can mild / asymptomatic people get it too? And does the vaccine alter the chances?

If you are mildly sick or have no symptoms, you certainly won't have any long term symptoms.

Technically, Covid is not actually around long enough to determine if anybody has long term issues that are actually related to Covid.

Some people have been a little tired for a few weeks/months and are calling it long Covid. Really they are just a bit run down which can happen to anyone who get a bad flu etc

timmyntc

Goldengirl wrote: »

Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable.
Obviously they are the most at risk, but all ages are at risk just at a lower level.

95% of all deaths to date have been in over 40s - of which we are mostly vaccinated.
Over 60s are still waiting due to a cock up and the AZ delays (initially 12weeks between doses)
40-60 is mostly done, many with J&J (1 shot)

cheezums

Avon8 wrote: »

Philip Nolan has, once again, made a complete tit of himself on twitter. This time with a basic misunderstanding of how to interpret and calculate 95% effective

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

Really? How should it be interpreted?

TheDoctor

Goldengirl wrote: »

Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable.
Obviously they are the most at risk, but all ages are at risk just at a lower level.

Approx 14% of the Russian population has received one dose a vaccine substantially lower than Ireland.

The vaccines being used are Sputnik V, EpiVacCorona, CoviVac and Sputnik Light none of which are the vaccines being used in Ireland.

Making a comparison between the two countries on Delta is a bad faith argument.

seamus

Shelga wrote: »

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40?

Well no, because the UK are 6 weeks ahead of us.

We'd have closer to 120 in hospital and about 16-20 admissions per day by mid-August.

All of the indicators in the UK are poor; cases are growing exponentially, hospitalisations and ICU admissions have doubled in a month, and as we know these things don't just stop growing without making a change. They will double again in a month; the UK will have close to 600 people in ICU and 4,000 in hospital by the end of July.

And yes, deaths in the UK have also doubled in a month.

That tells us that following the UK's approach is (as it always has been) a bad idea, and means that at least pausing for a second to consider options is prudent. Disastrously executed though it may be.

Whatever about NPHET's mad models, there is enough data there to say that widespread opening of indoor hospitality without additional measures, would not be a good idea.

Avon8 wrote: »

Philip Nolan has, once again, made a complete tit of himself on twitter. This time with a basic misunderstanding of how to interpret and calculate 95% effective

Can you explain, in 280 characters or less, why his calculation is so wrong that it's not even sufficient as a simple example?

Multipass

Goldengirl wrote: »

Look at the figures for deaths in Russia from Delta which are rising atm before you talk again about it being enough to vaccinate just the old and the vulnerable.
Obviously they are the most at risk, but all ages are at risk just at a lower level.

At a lower level than flu and countless other risks. Covid shouldn’t be top of any young persons worry list.

timmyntc

cheezums wrote: »

Really? How should it be interpreted?

95% effective relative to baseline chance of hospitalisation (1 in 5)
So when Nolan said 25000 at risk of hospital, really its 5000

Wolf359f

timmyntc wrote: »

95% effective relative to baseline chance of hospitalisation (1 in 5)
So when Nolan said 25000 at risk of hospital, really its 5000

And that's with 100% of the over 70's infected in the next few months.

Goldengirl

timmyntc wrote: »

95% of all deaths to date have been in over 40s - of which we are mostly vaccinated.
Over 60s are still waiting due to a cock up and the AZ delays (initially 12weeks between doses)
40-60 is mostly done, many with J&J (1 shot)

Yes am optimistic for our response but just to clarify I think we need a majority of all age groups vacced before we see more good times.
Even if that means incentives for some, it should be done or else we will be trying to get out of this for a long time.

Goldengirl

Multipass wrote: »

At a lower level than flu and countless other risks. Covid shouldn’t be top of any young persons worry list.

Christ not much point replying to that level of reply, bye! :mad:

cheezums

timmyntc wrote: »

95% effective relative to baseline chance of hospitalisation (1 in 5)
So when Nolan said 25000 at risk of hospital, really its 5000

He didnt even mention hospitalisation though. He just said "vulnerable". i.e. not protected by the vaccine. Which is accurate.

Chris_5339762

seamus wrote: »

All of the indicators in the UK are poor; cases are growing exponentially, hospitalisations and ICU admissions have doubled in a month, and as we know these things don't just stop growing without making a change. They will double again in a month; the UK will have close to 600 people in ICU and 4,000 in hospital by the end of July.

You've said it here actually, and its quite interesting.


Cases are growing EXPONENTIALLY
Hospitalisations have DOUBLED
ICU has DOUBLED


To me, that says the vaccines are working well. Hospitals and ICU should (more or less) follow the cases trend of going up exponentially. They arent. That is good.

Goldengirl

TheDoctor wrote: »

Approx 14% of the Russian population has received one dose a vaccine substantially lower than Ireland.

The vaccines being used are Sputnik V, EpiVacCorona, CoviVac and Sputnik Light none of which are the vaccines being used in Ireland.

Making a comparison between the two countries on Delta is a bad faith argument.

Firstly no argument here on vaccines, that was my point and as per Dr Henry.

Where did I make a comparison apart from their low level of vaccination?
My post was a positive as to our level and continuing high level of vaccination.

I take your reply as bad faith as you didn't read mine properly.

yourdeadwright

Got my jab today feel grand,
Fingers crossed ll my years laughing at anti vaxxer's doesn't come back to bite in the ass ,

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

Well no, because the UK are 6 weeks ahead of us.

We'd have closer to 120 in hospital and about 16-20 admissions per day by mid-August.

All of the indicators in the UK are poor; cases are growing exponentially, hospitalisations and ICU admissions have doubled in a month, and as we know these things don't just stop growing without making a change. They will double again in a month; the UK will have close to 600 people in ICU and 4,000 in hospital by the end of July.

And yes, deaths in the UK have also doubled in a month.

That tells us that following the UK's approach is (as it always has been) a bad idea, and means that at least pausing for a second to consider options is prudent. Disastrously executed though it may be.

The UK has never had any kind of a handle on contact tracing either and it doesn't follow we'll have the same disease profile, particularly with their issues with vaccine takeup in some cohorts. In that respect we are not comparable. I'm puzzled by the as goes the UK in cases so go we school of projections. We may have more cases we also may not. Our base is very low and the public health teams and other measures like pop-up testing have been effective in quashing larger outbreaks.

is_that_so

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

You've said it here actually, and its quite interesting.


Cases are growing EXPONENTIALLY
Hospitalisations have DOUBLED
ICU has DOUBLED


To me, that says the vaccines are working well. Hospitals and ICU should (more or less) follow the cases trend of going up exponentially. They arent. That is good.

The link between hospitalisations and cases has been broken and it is not the same model now as in the pre-vaccine days.

timmyntc

cheezums wrote: »

He didnt even mention hospitalisation though. He just said "vulnerable". i.e. not protected by the vaccine. Which is accurate.

No its not accurate. The 95% effective rate he quoted was the efficacy against hospitalisation (relative to no-vaccine rate).
It does not mean 5% are vulnerable.

Even if no one was vaccinate, you wouldnt have 100% "vulnerable". Some people do fine with covid. The efficacy and stats take this into account - Nolans modelling did not.

bucketybuck

Goldengirl wrote: »

Obviously they are the most at risk, but all ages are at risk just at a lower level.

Young people are far more at risk from a government that has thrown them on the scrapheap and destroyed their economic future than they ever were from Covid 19.

NoLuckLarry

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Got my jab today feel grand,
Fingers crossed ll my years laughing at anti vaxxer's doesn't come back to bite in the ass ,

I'd keep a pack of a paracetamol and an empty couch on standby for tomorrow

cheezums

timmyntc wrote: »

No its not accurate. The 95% effective rate he quoted was the efficacy against hospitalisation (relative to no-vaccine rate).
It does not mean 5% are vulnerable.

Even if no one was vaccinate, you wouldnt have 100% "vulnerable". Some people do fine with covid. The efficacy and stats take this into account - Nolans modelling did not.

You are confusing efficacy and effectiveness. Not the same thing.

Secondly, vaccine efficacy (controlled tests) and effectiveness (real world) are not a "hospitalisation" metric.

seamus

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

You've said it here actually, and its quite interesting.


Cases are growing EXPONENTIALLY
Hospitalisations have DOUBLED
ICU has DOUBLED


To me, that says the vaccines are working well. Hospitals and ICU should (more or less) follow the cases trend of going up exponentially. They arent. That is good.

I actually only said it that way because I hadn't bothered doing the calculation
Doubling is a form of exponential growth, it's not a good thing.

You're right, vaccines are helping because the cases are double every ten days, but serious cases are doubling every 30 days or so. But it's still an issue, because double becomes a lot in an incredibly short space of time. 8 deaths/day at the start of June becomes 16 at the start of July, 32 at the start of August, 64 at the start of September.

What level of vaccine rollout is needed to properly suppress this is unknown. We have to aim as high as possible and get there as quickly as we can.