Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

rm212

Polar101 wrote: »

Works as designed, then - with the vaccines.
But obviously there's a lag when it comes to hospitalisations and deaths from the growing number of cases. Hopefully they'll stay relatively low.

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Pretty much everyone here are saying all the modeling is wrong, but I haven't really seen any actual attempt to correct it.

For me an obvious flaw seems to be that the models are assuming everyone's going to be infected with the delta variant, but that hasn't happened yet.

I did, a while back… same as you said more or less, that’s a pretty obvious fallacy.

rm212 wrote: »

That’s not how 95% effectiveness works, it doesn’t mean that 25,000 PEOPLE are vulnerable… it’s not as if the vaccine doesn’t work at all for 5% of people. Everybody is protected to a very high standard with these vaccinations; what he means to say is that if the vaccines are 95% effective, then there is a potential scenario in which 25,000 could catch the virus.

That’s still quite flawed however, as it would assume that every single person in the 500,000 are going to be exposed to the virus and 95% will be “saved” by the their vaccine. This hypothetical scenario would be more or less the equivalent of every single vulnerable person catching COVID during one of the previous waves, when there was no protection from vaccines (ie. even in the worst case scenario, it could never happen). It seems disingenuous then for him to claim that “25000 people remain vulnerable”.

I’m surprised someone with such supposed advanced qualifications would come out and say something so inaccurate about how vaccine efficacy rates work. The man’s job is to be scientifically accurate.

Tyrone212

Interesting. The vaccine age criteria changes aren't factored in to the latest projections. Every Adult should be vaccinated roughly a month earlier that thought when those projections were made. The massive impact that will have on exponential growth surely deems the projection as null and void. A bit crackers.

Taoiseach wrongly told Cabinet that updated vaccination advice was factored into Nphet’s dire Delta forecast

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-wrongly-told-cabinet-that-updated-vaccination-advice-was-factored-into-nphets-dire-delta-forecast-40600175.html

Two FG TD’s have said they probably won’t vote for any more lockdown measures or the vaccine passports. At least 2 FF TDs seem of similar persuasion.

However seeing as we don’t have an opposition (or a function government/democracy), it won’t matter. But hopefully the cracks get bigger and bigger.

Klonker

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Interesting. The vaccine age criteria changes aren't factored in to the latest projections. Every Adult should be vaccinated roughly a month earlier that thought when those projections were made. The massive impact that will have on exponential growth surely deems the projection as null and void. A bit crackers.

Taoiseach wrongly told Cabinet that updated vaccination advice was factored into Nphet’s dire Delta forecast

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/taoiseach-wrongly-told-cabinet-that-updated-vaccination-advice-was-factored-into-nphets-dire-delta-forecast-40600175.html

I might be wrong here but I don't think AZ and J&J available to the under 30s will speed up vaccination much. I just don't think there'll be huge demand for them and it seems they'll be optional.

Polar101

rm212 wrote: »

I did, a while back… same as you said more or less, that’s a pretty obvious fallacy.

Thanks, makes sense.

Anyway, I tried to say that there are other variants too - but the modeling seems to say if you get infected, it's going to be the more infectious Delta variant. But I don't think we've yet reached a situation where 100% of infections are of the delta variant.

Turtwig

Klonker wrote: »

I might be wrong here but I don't think AZ and J&J available to the under 30s will speed up vaccination much. I just don't think there'll be huge demand for them and it seems they'll be optional.

It may not speed up vaccination by much. The models were built with anticipated vaccine supply and administration info from 23 June. If the under 30s were sped up that may suppress transmission more. Immunity is acquired over weeks. In the short term, I doubt the models would be that different. In the long term around late August or Sept they might. The models also assume under 16s will not be vaccinated. I'm hoping that'll change.

Another question to consider too is whether one dose J&J will be considered enough in the future. We're rushing to get everyone doube dosed. J&J has very little data on Delta. People expecting to be fully vaccinated from single dose J&J could yet be surprised.

Klonker

Turtwig wrote: »

It may not speed up vaccination by much. The models were built with anticipated vaccine supply and administration info from 23 June. If the under 30s were sped up that may suppress transmission more. Immunity is acquired over weeks. In the short term, I doubt the models would be that different. In the long term around late August or Sept they might. The models also assume under 16s will not be vaccinated. I'm hoping that'll change.

Another question to consider too is whether one dose J&J will be considered enough in the future. We're rushing to get everyone doube dosed. J&J has very little data on Delta. People expecting to be fully vaccinated from single dose J&J could yet be surprised.

Yeah I think the push for J&J is a little short sighted. Severe disease isn't the issue with the under 30s, it's transmission of the disease. Best guess is J&J should have similar stats to one dose of AZ.

I haven't been vaccinated yet and while I like the idea of one dose and done, I'm worried they might decide at some stage that I'm no longer deemed fully vaccinated with one J&J until I get another dose of something. More in terms of travel and now pubs rather than actually getting sick.

Peter Flynt

It seems that the vaccination centre at the Aviva Stadium is to be closed on certain dates to accommodate Rugby fans.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/aviva-stadium-close-vaccination-centre-24431665

This doesn't look like a country that is preparing for all those thousands of deaths that NPHET are warning are incoming if indoor dining resumes.

beaz2018

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It seems that the vaccination centre at the Aviva Stadium is to be closed on certain dates to accommodate Rugby fans.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/aviva-stadium-close-vaccination-centre-24431665

This doesn't look like a country that is preparing for all those thousands of deaths that NPHET are warning are incoming if indoor dining resumes.

Donnelly better ring India and ask for all those oxygen tanks back.

prunudo

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It seems that the vaccination centre at the Aviva Stadium is to be closed on certain dates to accommodate Rugby fans.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/aviva-stadium-close-vaccination-centre-24431665

This doesn't look like a country that is preparing for all those thousands of deaths that NPHET are warning are incoming if indoor dining resumes.

Also to add my anecdote on covid easing, the testing centre I pass every day going to and from work has its gates shut both in the morning and evenings where as it used to be open for longer hours.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It seems that the vaccination centre at the Aviva Stadium is to be closed on certain dates to accommodate Rugby fans.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/sport/aviva-stadium-close-vaccination-centre-24431665

This doesn't look like a country that is preparing for all those thousands of deaths that NPHET are warning are incoming if indoor dining resumes.

Plenty of other vaccination sites capable of scaling up supply. Or they can do more work on the surrounding days.

pc7

Is there any indication of when we will get proper vaccine data again along with the testing results etc?

Peter Flynt

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/nphet-sidelined-as-governmentset-to-defy-advice-and-press-on-withrapid-antigen-tests-40600533.html

This is a huge turning point.

NPHET's advice is effectively to be ignored on antigen testing with outside international expertise brought in to advise.

prunudo

While its great to see them hopefully going down the antigen testing route. I can't help but feel we're being set up for a bigger mess. The Taisoach, Health minister and cmo all need to be singing from the same hymn sheet. If that means one or all three of them are replaced so be it. But we can't have a situation where they're going on solo runs, whether that's an arrogant minister or an over powering cmo.

FintanMcluskey

Peter Flynt wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/nphet-sidelined-as-governmentset-to-defy-advice-and-press-on-withrapid-antigen-tests-40600533.html

This is a huge turning point.

NPHET's advice is effectively to be ignored on antigen testing with outside international expertise brought in to advise.

I honestly don’t know who tony Holohan thinks he is

Yesterday, Dr Holohan also ruled out the use of negative tests for Covid-19, including rapid antigen tests, to allow people to access indoor hospitality.

He also warned Nphet would recommend keeping pubs and restaurants closed for indoor dining until the “end of September or beyond” if a so-called vaccine and immunisation pass was not introduced for indoor dining.

He remit was to advise government

In a warped way I’m kinda glad he’s showing his true colours beyond doubt now, there is no denying it anymore for his permanent defenders

Klonker

prunudo wrote: »

While its great to see them hopefully going down the antigen testing route. I can't help but feel we're being set up for a bigger mess. The Taisoach, Health minister and cmo all need to be singing from the same hymn sheet. If that means one or all three of them are replaced so be it. But we can't have a situation where they're going on solo runs, whether that's an arrogant minister or an over powering cmo.

There's no harm them not agreeing. In fact thta is how it is in almost all other countries. NPHET should only advise is what we always hear.The interesting thing is how Tony will react.

If Tony didn’t want indoor dining to continue until at least late September or beyond, it’s bizarre that he waited until the week before they were due to reopen to mention anything…

I remember several posters on the restrictions thread getting called conspiracy theorists when they said indoor hospitality may not open again in 2021. Tony is confirming as much.

dirkmeister

Tony Holohan has warned the Government that indoor dining is “off the menu” until September without a vaccine.


That was just on the paper review on Morning Ireland.


Mother of God, the radio nearly went out the window.

prunudo

Klonker wrote: »

There's no harm them not agreeing. In fact thta is how it is in almost all other countries. NPHET should only advise is what we always hear.The interesting thing is how Tony will react.

Fair point, but those differences should be in the meeting rooms and not individuals going on solo runs undermining whatever the agreed public message is.

CruelSummer

Dr Philip Nolan has blatantly mis-represented vaccine efficacy in his figures & tweets in the explanation he gave of NPHET’s modelling. Has any journalist reported on this? Does he not understand it? He has incorrectly misrepresented the risk from Covid to the over 70’s where they’ve had 100% uptake of the vaccine
How have we someone coming up with such models influencing our daily lives in such a serious manner?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

Zebra3

Snooker Loopy wrote: »

That's the exact line we heard last Autumn.

What has last Autumn got to do with where we are now? :rolleyes:

Cal4567

The few times national governments have to deal with crisis situations are the times to really see how they govern.

The correct decisions made as well as the mistakes. Having a strategy and seeing it through or shifting from one policy to another. To itself leading or being led, either through public opinion or seeing what is occurring in other countries.

Passing the buck is not unusual. Dr Tony being the fall guy. Expect to see more of this now as the government aims to take back the room.

is_that_so

dirkmeister wrote: »

Tony Holohan has warned the Government that indoor dining is “off the menu” until September without a vaccine.


That was just on the paper review on Morning Ireland.


Mother of God, the radio nearly went out the window.

It is a combination of NPHET self-importance and a belief that only they can make decisions about the health of the country. They are so fixed on doing things right they are discounting absolutely anything that seems not to fit within that vision. The CMO, unfortunately is not a good fit for softer messages. Details he does very well but you need a more engaging and less rigid voice like Glynn to get these messages out.

is_that_so

CruelSummer wrote: »

Dr Philip Nolan has blatantly mis-represented vaccine efficacy in his figures & tweets in the explanation he gave of NPHET’s modelling. Has any journalist reported on this? Does he not understand it? He has incorrectly misrepresented the risk from Covid to the over 70’s where they’ve had 100% uptake of the vaccine
How have we someone coming up with such models influencing our daily lives in such a serious manner?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

I think it's more a case of being under the spell of his own data and ignoring the fact that risk is a part of all of our lives, we can never fully mitigate it for anyone. COVID will live beside us and some people will get sick, some may even die, just as they do from other illnesses, but we will get better at dealing with it.

rm212

CruelSummer wrote: »

Dr Philip Nolan has blatantly mis-represented vaccine efficacy in his figures & tweets in the explanation he gave of NPHET’s modelling. Has any journalist reported on this? Does he not understand it? He has incorrectly misrepresented the risk from Covid to the over 70’s where they’ve had 100% uptake of the vaccine
How have we someone coming up with such models influencing our daily lives in such a serious manner?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

Yes, he has. The 25,000 PEOPLE being vulnerable figure is just blatantly wrong and reeks to me of manipulating the stats to try to add a human element, making it appear that there are 25,000 vulnerable individuals right now, whereas that's not at all what 95% efficacy means. There is no single vulnerable individual who is fully vaccinated, all fully vaccinated people now each have only a very small amount of vulnerability remaining.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I honestly don’t know who tony Holohan thinks he is



He remit was to advise government

In a warped way I’m kinda glad he’s showing his true colours beyond doubt now, there is no denying it anymore for his permanent defenders

Then get a load of this..

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/newsireland/cmo-threatens-to-take-indoor-dining-off-the-menu-until-october/ar-AALEqVC?li=BBr5KbJ

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

Dr Philip Nolan has blatantly mis-represented vaccine efficacy in his figures & tweets in the explanation he gave of NPHET’s modelling. Has any journalist reported on this? Does he not understand it? He has incorrectly misrepresented the risk from Covid to the over 70’s where they’ve had 100% uptake of the vaccine
How have we someone coming up with such models influencing our daily lives in such a serious manner?

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1410320834342932483?s=21

he's heading for a proper Dr Christian jessen moment if he stays tweeting!

Economics101

I tried to access a CV for Philip Nolan online. Can't find one. His research and publication record from UCD is available but it does not appear to be all that related to epidemiology. Any further information?

Reminds of the time when the lack of professional economic expertise in the Department of Finance was a big problem. It took the Banking crisis to sort than one out.

lemmno

Personally I think postponing indoor dining for a while longer is fine, or allowing it only for the fully vaccinated. I haven’t had any vaccine yet myself, I’m waiting for my turn like many others. It wouldn’t bother me one bit if all my vaccinated family and friends could enjoy a meal or a pint indoors without me. I feel very sorry for all businesses involved of course but I personally think Nphet should be listened to for now. We all remember what happened when people started shouting about how we all deserved to have a good Christmas. It’s easy to say that’s life or people were always going to die etc but nobody wants it at their own door.

Ger Roe

rusty cole wrote: »

Then get a load of this..

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/newsireland/cmo-threatens-to-take-indoor-dining-off-the-menu-until-october/ar-AALEqVC?li=BBr5KbJ

Was it a first year journo student that wrote that clickbait headline? - "CMO threatens to take indoor dining off the menu until October"

The CMO gives his opinion on the health matters that he is asked to monitor and he advises Government who then take a collective decision to agree with him, or not. The headline on that article is a blatant misrepresentation of the CMO role, designed to create clicks. Tony Holohan can't take anything 'off the menu'. That's the role of our highly paid elected reps.

I would not like to have Tony Holohan's job, particularly when bad journalism like that encourages inaccurate personification of his role.